Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technicals Commonwealth & Eurchf

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

AUD:(.9045) Above channel top off year high (see graph)

FOREX AUD=,22 (0.9028, 0.9030, 0.9027, 0.9028, +0.0002)

HOURLY CHARTS
0.905
0.900

0.895

0.890
.8860 .8871
0.885

0.880

0.875
0.870

0.865
.8633 0.860
0.855

0.850

0.845

0.840

0.835

.8315 0.830

0.825

0.820
0.815

0.810
.8083 0.805

0.800
1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Strong rebound off .8633 puts the pair above the channel top off year high (see graph) and above daily Down-
trendline off 2009 high (.8986 today).
Support at .8997 (reaction low hourly), with next levels at .8986/ .8983 (see above/ daily envelope bottom), ahead
of .8962 (200 Day Moving Average→), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8942/ .8930 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ current week low), ahead of .8907 (50
week Moving Average↑): tough on 1st attempts.
Resistance area at .9048/ .9053 (today’s + current week high?/ daily projection band top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .9076/ .9085 (76.4% year high to .8066/ modified weekly Standard Error Band top),
ahead of .9121/ .9128 (daily Bollinger top/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8997 (see above) .9048/ .9053 (current week high/ see above)

.8986/ .8983 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) .9076/ .9085 (76.4% year high to .8066/ see above)
.9090/ 91.21 (76.4% 2009 high to .8066/ daily Bollinger
.8962/ .42 (see above/ daily ST MA↑)
top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

CAD: (1.0308)

FOREX CAD=,22 (1.0299, 1.0309, 1.0294, 1.0304, +0.0004)

1.0680
1.0678

1.065

1.060

1.055

1.050

1.045

1.040

1.035

1.030

1.0276 1.025

1.020

1.015

1.0138
1.010

1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Drop from 1.0678 puts the pair below the redrawn daily Uptrendline off year low (1.0384 today).
1st Support area at 1.0299 (today’s low?), with next levels at 1.0276/ .0261 (July 13 low + see graph/ medium
term break-up daily), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0236 (daily envelope bottom), ahead of 1.0216/ .0213 (daily Bollinger bottom + modi-
fied daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 1.0343 (reaction high hourly), with next levels at 1.0367 (daily envelope top + daily
Short Term Moving Average↓), ahead of 1.0383/ .0391 (current week high/ daily Medium Term Moving Aver-
age↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0427 (reaction high hourly), ahead of 1.0450 (daily Bollinger midline) and 104.66/
1.0485 (reaction high hourly + modified daily Alpha Beta trend top/ 50 Week Moving Average↓): tough on 1st
attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.0299 (see above) 1.0343 (see above)

1.0276/ .0261 (see graph/ break-up daily) 1.0367 (daily envelope top + see above)

1.0236/ .0216 (daily envelope bottom / daily Bollinger

1.0383/ .0391 (current week high/ daily MT MA↓)
bottom + see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

GBP: (1.5469) New recovery high on move back above Flag off year low (see graph)
FOREX GBP=,22 (1.5463, 1.5466, 1.5449, 1.5466, +0.0003)

1.555
1.550
1.5473
1.545
1.540
1.535
1.530
1.525
1.5230 1.520
1.515
1.5125 1.510
1.505
1.500
1.495
1.4949
1.490
1.485
1.480
1.475
1.470
1.4688 1.465
1.460
1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.4346 1.430
1.425
1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

New recovery high on move back above the Flag off year low (see graph: equivalent on daily charts has its
broken top at 1.5226 today): Support at 1.5449/ .5434 (reaction lows hourly), with next levels at 1.5424 (daily
envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5395 (current week low), ahead of 1.5360 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑) and
1.5330 (broken weekly Long Term Moving Average↓): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 1.5524/ .5528 (April 15 high + neckline of daily Double Bottom/ today’s + current new recov-
ery high off year low?), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5553/ .5555 (50% Nov high to 1.4228 + modified daily Standard Error band top/200
Day Moving Average↓), ahead of 1.5590/ .5606 (daily envelope top + modified daily Alpha Beta Trend top/
61.8% year high to 1.4228): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.5449/ .5434 (see above) 1.5524/ .5528 (see above)

1.5424 (daily envelope bottom) see above) 1.5553/ .5555 (see above/ 200 Day MA↓)

1.5395/ .5360 (see above/ daily ST MA↑) 1.5590/ .5606 (daily envelope top + see above/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

EUR/CHF: (1.3730) New recovery high on move back in Flag off low (see graph)

FOREX EURCHF=EBS (1.3717, 1.3733, 1.3712, 1.3731, +0.0015)

1.435
1.430
1.425
1.420
1.415
1.410
1.4041 1.405
1.400
1.395
1.390
1.385
1.380
1.375
1.3735 1.3677 1.370
1.365
1.360
1.355
1.350
1.3434
1.345
1.340
1.335
1.330
1.325
1.320
1.315
1.310
1.3073 1.305
1.300

28 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 Jul

Reapproaching the broken long term daily channel bottom off 2007 high (1.3738 today).

Resistance area at 1.3738 (see above), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 1.3765 (weekly envelope top + modified daily Standard Error band top, ahead of
1.3795 (2nd target off 1.3434: see graph + modified daily Alpha Beta trend top): tough on 1st attempts.

Support area at 1.3652 (break-up hourly), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 1.3594 (reaction low hourly), ahead of 1.3558/ .3548 (daily Short Term Moving Aver-
age↑/ daily envelope bottom) tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.3652 (see above) 1.3731/ .3738 (today’s high?/ see above)

1.3594 (see above) 1.3765 (weekly envelope top + see above)

1.3558/ .3548 (daily ST MA↑/ daily envelope bottom) 1.3795/ .3811 (see above/ daily projection band top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Tuesday, July 27, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5