INSE 6320 Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering (4

credits)

1. General Information

INSE 6320: Risk Analysis for Information and Systems Engineering (4 credits)
Wednesdays and Fridays: 6:30 9:00 PM, H-629 SGW
Babak Khosravifar, Ph.D., Concordia Institute for Information Systems Engineering, ENCS.
e-mail: Babak.Khosravifar@Mentorina.com
Office hours: Mondays from 1:30 to 3:30 PM
Course website: MyConcordia Portal (Moodle)

2. Course Description

This course examines the fundamental concepts, techniques and tools for risk analysis and
decision making strategies in the context of information and systems engineering. This
includes qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, risks in systems engineering,
environmental risks, security risks; methods of risk analysis, fault trees and event trees;
quantification of probabilities, use of data, models, and expert judgments; risks and decisions,
interlinking risk analysis with risk management; decision analysis; system analysis and
quantification; uncertainty modeling and risk measurement; and project risk management.

3. Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course, students should be able to:

1. Assess risk for systems engineering using probability theory and statistics
2. Use the basic tools of risk analysis fault trees, event trees, simulation
models, and influence diagrams
3. Model uncertainty and measure risk through various methods
4. Implement quantitative risk analyses, and develop strategies to identify, assess,
monitor and mitigate risk.

4. Tentative Schedule

Week 1 Session 1: Course Overview. Introduction to Risk Analysis

Week 1 Session 2: Risk and Uncertainty
Week 2 Session 1: Probability Distributions and Stochastic Processes
Week 2 Session 2: Statistical Inference. Weibull Analysis. Survival Analysis
Week 3 Session 1: Fault Trees and Event Trees. F-N Curves
Week 3 Session 2: Reliability for Risk Analysis. Expert Opinion

________________________________________________________________________________________
INSE 6320 Summer 2017 1 Course Outline
 Week 4 Session 1: Decision Theory for Risk Analysis. Influence Diagrams. Risk
Profile + Quiz 1 in class
Week 4 Session 2: Midterm in class
Week 5 Session 1: Sensitivity Analysis. Bayesian Belief Networks
Week 5 Session 2: Utility Functions. Project Risk Management
Week 6 Session 1: Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Analyses
Week 6 Session 2: Risk Measurement and Regulations
Week 7: Final exam review + Quiz 2 in class

5. Course Materials

No textbook required. Lecture slides and course notes will be posted on Moodle.

Recommended Book: Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods,

by T. Bedford and R. Cooke, Cambridge University Press, 2001.

6. Assignments and Grading

Grading Policy:
Homework (2): 10%
Quizzes (2): 5%
Midterm Exam: 25%
Term Project: 25%
Final Exam: 35%

Details:

1. Homework Assignments (2): must be done individually. Due dates: May 19th, 2017 and June 9th,
2017.
Late assignments suffer a penalty rate of 20% per day, up to 5 days.
Assignments that are more than 5 days late are penalized by 100%. The solutions will be
posted on Moodle.
No submissions will be allowed after the solutions are published.
th
2. Midterm Exam: First 6 Lectures and Homework 1. Exam date: May 26 , 2017.

3. Project Report: should be done in groups of two or three. Each group is to research and
write a comprehensive report on topics related to risk analysis. Due date: June 16th, 2017.

4. Final Exam: will take place during the examination period at the end of the semester.
Students should not make any specific arrangements to leave the city until the final exam
date is posted.

Failing Grade:
Plagiarism, absenteeism, lack of preparation, and lack of effort will result in a failing grade.

________________________________________________________________________________________
INSE 6320 Summer 2017 2 Course Outline
7. Academic Code of Conduct

Academic Integrity

Any form of cheating, plagiarism, personation, falsification of a document as well as any

other form of dishonest behaviour related to the obtention of academic gain or the avoidance
of evaluative exercises committed by a student is an academic offence under the Academic
Code of Conduct and may lead to
severe penalties up to and including suspension and expulsion.
As examples only, you are not permitted to:
Copy from anywhere without indicating where it came from
Let another student copy your work and then submit it as
his/her own Hand in the same assignment in more than one
class
Have unauthorized material or devices in an exam. Note that you do not have to
be caught using them just having them is an offence
Copy from someones else exam
Communicate with another student during an exam
Add or remove pages from an examination booklet or take the booklet out of an
exam room Acquire exam or assignment answers or questions
Write an exam for someone else or have someone write an exam
for you Submit false documents such as medical notes or student
records
Falsify data or research results

You are subject to the Academic Code of Conduct. Take the time to learn
more at http://provost.concordia.ca/academicintegrity/

8. Students Responsibilities

Students are expected to attend every class. Some material may only be covered in class
and not made available on the course website. Students are expected to read the assigned
material and to actively participate in class discussions.
Students are expected to be respectful of other peoples opinions and to express their own
views in a calm and reasonable way. Disruptive behaviour will not be tolerated.
Students are expected to be familiar with the Code of Rights and
Responsibilities: http://rights.concordia.ca
If you cannot attend class for any reason, unforeseen or not, you are to come and talk or
write to me as soon as possible.

________________________________________________________________________________________
INSE 6320 Summer 2017 3 Course Outline
9. Student Services

Concordia Counselling and Development offers career services, psychological

services, student learning services, etc.
http://cdev.concordia.ca
The Concordia Library Citation and Cycle Guides:
http://library.concordia.ca/help/howto/citations.html
Advocacy and Support Services:
http://supportservices.concordia.ca
Student Transition Centre:
http://stc.concordia.ca
New Student Program:
http://newstudent.concordia.ca
Office for Students with Disabilities:
http://supportservices.concordia.ca/disabilities/
The Academic Integrity Website:
http://provost.concordia.ca/academicintegrity/

10. Disclaimer

In the event of extraordinary circumstances beyond the University's control, the content
and/or evaluation scheme in this course is subject to change.

________________________________________________________________________________________
INSE 6320 Summer 2017 4 Course Outline