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Abstract
The government of South Korea considers an energy efciency improvement policy an effective economic measure for climate change
like many other governments. But it is unaware of any rebound effect, the unexpected result of energy efciency improvement. So the
rebound effect of residential electricity use in South Korea was estimated using two different scales in this paper. At the macro level, the
rebound effect was estimated indirectly by using price elasticity, and at the micro level, the rebound effect of individual home appliances
was estimated directly by using a non-linear relationship between energy efciency and energy use. At the macro level, the long- and
short-term results of rebound effect were estimated at 30% and 38%, respectively. Also at the micro level, the rebound effect of air
conditioners was 5770%; while refrigerators showed only a composite of rebound and income effects. Finally, there was no backre
effect, and efciency improvement brought energy reduction. In conclusion, these suggest that rebound effect is an important factor that
the government of South Korea must consider when planning its energy efciency improvement policy.
r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
0301-4215/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
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2 S.-H. Jin / Energy Policy ] (]]]]) ]]]]]]
ultimately, it is in residential dwellings where energy is decreasing (Fig. 1). Third, in spite of its large energy
consumed. The rebound effect of residential electricity consumption, only South Korea has switched energy
consumption was analyzed using two different scales in this sources rapidly and comprehensively (Fig. 2). But South
paper. At the macro level, the rebound effect was estimated Koreas energy switching was attributed to nuclear and
indirectly by using price elasticity, and at the micro level, natural gas.
the rebound effect of individual home appliances was In sum, although South Korea switched energy sources,
estimated directly by using a non-linear relationship a signicant amount of energy is still used and energy
between energy efciency and energy use. intensity is increasing. On account of these realities, South
Korea has to reduce energy consumption and consider
energy efciency improvement. So it is necessary to
2. Overview: energy consumption characteristics of South estimate the rebound effect in South Korea.
Korea
3. Denition and argument of rebound effect
With respect to energy, South Korea is unique. First, it
consumes a signicant amount of energy. It is the 6th 3.1. Definition of rebound effect
largest importer of oil and the 10th in energy consumption.
Second, the energy intensity of South Korea is increasing Rebound effect is related to consumers tendency to
while carbon intensity is stationary unlike other major consume more energy due to economic benet from
developing countries, in which energy intensity (energy/ efciency improvement (Berkhout et al., 2000). For
GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon/GDP) are both example, if a fuel-efcient car has better gas mileage than
others, the cost of fuel per kilometer will fall. Generally
speaking, a price decrease leads to increased consumption.
So some part of expected energy savings can be lost
because people tend to consume more energy services at a
decreased price. This lost part is denoted as rebound
effect. A rebound effect of 10% means that 10% of
expected savings are offset by increased consumption.
Rebound effect can be dened using a simple equation
below (Haas and Biermayr, 2000)
expected savings actual savings
rebound effect .
expected savings
In particular, a rebound effect of 0% means full
achievement of energy reduction, while 100% means
Fig. 1. Relative changes of the intensity effect of energy use and CO2 complete failure. Also, if rebound effect is greater than
emissions in Korea compared to 1990 levels (%). Source: Luukkanen and 100%, efciency improvement measures can even increase
Kaivo-oja (2002). energy use, which is called as backre effect. Eventually, if
a backre effect is noted, efciency improvement measures
are of little use as energy reduction policies.
Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
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rebound effect that continues to be the most contentious level, direct estimation shows it at the micro level. That is,
issue. Some researchers argue that the impact of rebound while indirect estimation uses energy price and use at the
effect is so negligible that it can be ignored (Bentzen, 2004; national level, direct estimation uses individual energy
Berkhout et al., 2000; Haas and Biermayr, 2000; Hertwich, efciency and use at the level of the individual residence. So
2005; Howarth et al., 2000; Laitner, 2000); others argue these two methods can show rebound effect comprehen-
that the impact of rebound effect is so substantial that it sively, across different levels.
has to be taken seriously (Brannlund et al., 2007; Residential energy was analyzed because individual
Grepperud and Rasmussen, 2004; Roy, 2000; Saunders, consumers energy consumption is increasing worldwide,
2000a). So Greening et al. (2000) reviewed all articles on a trend that is not expected to decrease in the future.
rebound effect estimation in US circulation. They showed Among the diverse energies electricity was selected. The
that there was no general rule and the range of rebound reason for this is because electricity is used more in
effect was very wide. From this, the conclusion can be residential dwellings on account of its convenience and has
drawn that the impact of rebound effect has to be gauged more accessible data than any other energy. In indirect
individually, because each country and sector have very estimation, time series data from 1975 to 2005 are used:
different consumption characteristics and patterns. electricity consumption, income, price and climate. In
direct estimation, cross-sectional data of two home
4. Methodology of rebound effect estimation appliances in 2002 are used: the refrigerator and the air
conditioner.
Estimating rebound effect is a most problematic
endeavor (Haas and Biermayr, 2000). In fact, the absence 5. Indirect estimation of rebound effect
of a standard methodology partly contributed to the
debate. Of course, the easiest method is to measure 5.1. Electricity demand function
rebound effect directly. Before beginning an efciency
improvement project, an engineer can calculate how much Rebound effect can be dened as the unexpected result
energy can be predicted to be conserved. Then, if of energy efciency improvement. In other words, rebound
researchers are able to check actual energy savings after effect is a kind of price effect. That is, rebound effect
the project, the rebound effect can be measured. While such becomes evident when energy service prices fall after
direct measurement is very simple, it does have some efciency improvement. So Khazzoom (1987) induced
limitations because it cannot control variables other than rebound effect from energy price elasticity.
efciency improvement. Income effect, in particular, is also
too important to be omitted. rebound effect Zp E.
So two methods were applied to estimate rebound effect First of all, the energy demand function is necessary to
in this paper: indirect estimation and direct estimation. estimate price elasticity or rebound effect. The types of
These two methods did not involve measurement, but variables which are included in energy demand function
rather estimation. In the indirect estimation process, the depend on the purpose of the analysis. In this paper, the
price elasticity of energy was used. As most researchers dependent variable is residential electricity use and the
have agreed that price elasticity is a useful proxy variable independent variables are income, electricity price, cooling
since Khazzoom rst suggested estimating rebound effect degree days, heating degree days and trend.1 Like other
by using price elasticity in 1980, indirect estimation of economic analyses, the natural logarithms of income,
rebound effect is an accepted, academically sound method electricity use and price were used to estimate elasticity
(Bentzen, 2004). So this method was named indirect
ln E a b1 ln I b2 ln P b3 CDD b4 HDD b5 T .
estimation in this paper, because it does not use any energy
efciency data directly.
In direct estimation, energy efciency and use dataset
was applied. That is, rebound effect can be estimated by
using the non-linear correlation between energy efciency 5.2. Asymmetry of price elasticity
and use. Generally speaking, most people guess that there
is linear correlation between them. For example, it is Some researchers raised the issue of the symmetry of
naturally understood that an efcient car will use less oil price elasticity. Price elasticity is dened as the change in
(energy). But sometimes this may not be true. Therefore, demand according to price change. The hypothesis of
the gap between linear correlation and non-linear correla- symmetry, that demand changes of price increase and
tion can be interpreted as the rebound effect (Haas et al., decrease are the same, is assumed implicitly in the
1998; Haas and Biermayr, 2000). This method was named denition of elasticity. But this may not be the same. So
direct estimation in this paper, because it uses energy 1
Electricity use data were offered by Korea Electric Power Corporation.
efciency and use data directly. Income and electricity price data were from the Bank of Korea. And the
These two methods are also complementary. While numbers of cooling and heating degree days were provided by the Korea
indirect estimation shows rebound effect at the macro Meteorological Administration.
Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
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7 Table 1
Elasticity of symmetry and asymmetry model
6
Price symmetry model Price asymmetry model
5
Short-term Long-term Short-term Long-term
4
Price 0.1369 0.1604
3 Pcut 0.3783 0.3046*
Prise 1.7791** 1.8775*
2 Income 0.4674** 0.5294* 0.3452 0.5684*
CDD 0.0008** 0.0003 0.0008** 0.0000
1
HDD 0.0000 0.0001* 0.0000 0.0002*
0 Trend 0.0685 0.0525**
Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
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S.-H. Jin / Energy Policy ] (]]]]) ]]]]]] 5
Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
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Table 2
Rebound effect estimates of refrigerator by efciency grade
Efciency (W/ Actual Expected Initial Expected Take back Rebound effect
V) electricity use electricity use electricity use electricity (KWh) (%)
(KWh) (KWh) (KWh) savings (KWh)
Note: the initial efciency is 0.124 W/L and the initial electricity use is 460.7 KWh at grade 9.
1000
900
800
700
Incom of Month (10,000 won)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24
Refrigerator Efficiency (W/L)
rebound effect
E ref 3:0999q 0:0109q2 .
150 Eexpected (grade2)
Fig. 6 shows the non-linear line, linear line, initial
efciency, target efciency and rebound effect. The re-
100 bound effect was 56.569.7% in the case of efciency
linear relation
improvement of inefcient air conditioners (Table 3).
50 Unlike refrigerators, there was no statistically signicant
relation between air conditioner efciency and income
qgrade2 qgrade9 (Fig. 7). This is a very interesting result, because the utility
0 company of Korea has stated that the income of air
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Efficiency (W/A)
conditioner owners is higher than others (KEPCO, 2004).
Of course, air conditioners are one of the most expensive
Fig. 6. Non-linear correlation of air conditioners. home appliances, but efciency has no relation with
Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
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Table 3
Rebound effect estimates of air conditioner by efciency grade
Efciency (W/ Actual Expected Initial Expected Take back Rebound effect
L) electricity use electricity use electricity use electricity (KWh) (%)
(KWh) (KWh) (KWh) savings (KWh)
Note: the initial efciency is 132.2 W/area and the initial electricity use is 219.1 KWh at grade 9.
1000
900
800
700
Incom fo Month (10,00 won)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Airconditioner Efficiency (W/A)
income.3 So, unlike the case with refrigerators, it was Obviously, as the rebound effect was smaller than 1 or
possible to estimate pure rebound effect independently of 100%, there was no backre effect in the residential
income in air conditioners. electricity consumption in South Korea. So it can be
inferred that increase in electricity use was due not to
efciency improvement, but to income increases, price
7. Conclusion and policy implication
reduction in electricity and other such trends. Further
research is needed to conrm whether the price of
The rebound effect of residential electricity use was
electricity controlled by government reects market price
estimated in this paper. Rebound effects at the macro level
or includes external costs, such as carbon tax.
over the short- and long-term were 38% and 30%,
In conclusion, rebound effect can be used as another
respectively. At the micro level, the rebound effect of air
criterion for the effectiveness of efciency improvement
conditioner was estimated at 5770%, with refrigerators
policy. In comparison with other countries, the rebound
showing only a composite of rebound and income effects.
effect in South Korea was signicant. Fortunately, the
3
One reason for this is perhaps because the older model air conditioners, government of South Korea does not support general
which people with high income bought in the 1990s, are still working household to improve efciency. It supports only industry
today. and building. Of course, other sectors might also have as
Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028
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substantial a rebound effect as residential electricity use. So Greening, L.A., Greene, D.L., Diglio, C., 2000. Energy efciency
the signicance of this paper is that it identies the need to and consumption: the rebound effect: a survey. Energy Policy 28,
389401.
estimate rebound effect of present energy efciency
Grepperud, S., Rasmussen, I., 2004. A general equilibrium assessment of
improvement projects. The government has to accurately rebound effects. Energy Economics 26, 261282.
gauge the effectiveness of energy efciency improvement Haas, R., Biermayr, P., 2000. The rebound effect for space heating
measures by taking rebound effect into consideration. empirical evidence from Austria. Energy Policy 28, 403410.
Also, it has to understand which part is more effective for Haas, R., Auer, H., Biermayr, P., 1998. The impact of consumer behavior
reducing energy use by improving energy efciency. on residential energy demand for space heating. Energy and Buildings
27, 195205.
Hertwich, E.G., 2005. Consumption and the rebound effect: an industrial
Acknowledgments ecology perspective. Journal of Industrial Ecology 9, 8597.
Howarth, R.B., 1997. Energy efciency and economic growth. Con-
I would like to thank JeongJeon Rhee, JungWk Kim and temporary Economic Policy 15, 18.
SunJin Yun of Seoul National University for their advice Howarth, R.B., Haddad, B.M., Paton, B., 2000. The economics of energy
efciency: insights from voluntary participation programs. Energy
and suggestions. I also appreciate helpful comments by Policy 28, 477486.
YoungHwan Ahn of Korea Energy Economics Institute Khazzoom, D.J., 1987. Energy saving resulting from the adoption of more
and OhDae Gyun of Korea Energy Management Corpora- efcient appliances. Energy Journal 8, 8589.
tion. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), 2002. Survey of Electricity
Consumption Characteristics of Home Appliances.
author.
Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), 2004. Survey of Electricity
Consumption Characteristics of Home Appliances.
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Please cite this article as: Jin, S.-H., The effectiveness of energy efciency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity
use in South.... Energy Policy (2007), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.028