Affordability Challenges

to Homeownership
By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS

Presentation at HUD Conference on A New Era of

Homeownership

Washington, DC
June 1, 2017
 100
120
140
200
220
240
260

160
180
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
(FHFA)

2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
U.S. Home Price Index

2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
2014 - Jul
2015 - Jan
2015 - Jul
2016 - Jan
2016 - Jul
2017 - Jan
 4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
16000

2000
14000

0
1990 - Q1
1991 - Q1
1992 - Q1
$ billion

1993 - Q1
1994 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
2014 - Q1
Homeowners Equity in Real Estate

2015 - Q1
2016 - Q1
2017 - Q1
 0
4
6
8

2
10
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
Low Supply over the past 5 year

2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
Inventory of Homes Low Months Supply

2017 - Jan
Home price grew by 41% 4 times faster than income
 300
500
700
900
1300
1500

100
1100

-100
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
Thousand units

2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
Single-family Housing Starts

2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
 Median Home Price: New vs. Existing
350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
California Affordability Distribution:
Ownership Rate of 55%
Indiana Affordability Distribution:
Ownership Rate of 70%