JUN 27, 2016 AT 7:00 AM

WeStudyWhatMakesPeopleMoreLiberal.
ButWhatMakesThemMoreConservative?
By Maggie Koerth-Baker

Filed under Political Science

Mypride(andmyeditor)forbidmefromstartingthisstorywithaknockknockjoke,1
butitdoesbeginwithknocking.Doortodoorpoliticalcanvassingmadeheadlinesin
AprilincludinghereatFiveThirtyEightwhenscientistsatStanfordandthe
UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,publishedapaperclaimingtheycouldusethe
techniquetoincreasesupportfortransgenderrights.Thisresearch,conductedby
DavidBroockmanandJoshuaKalla,studiedcanvassersfromtheLosAngelesLGBT
Center,andtheirfindingwasntjustbuzzy,itwasscientificallysignificant.Scientists
whostudypoliticalpersuasiontoldmethattheyregoingtobeusingthepapers
researchtechniquesandtestingitsideasforyearstocome.Itrepresentsthenewand
excitingfrontierinafastchangingfield.

Itsalsorepresentativeofhowpoliticallylopsidedthatfieldcanbe.Whetherornot
youthinkincreasingthepublicsacceptanceoftransgenderpeopleisalaudablegoal,
itsdefinitelyaliberalone.Inthatway,BroockmanandKallasfindingispartofa
biggertrendinthescienceofpoliticalpersuasionwhenthestudyofpersuasionis
coloredbyideology,thatcolorisalmostalwaysblue.

ThescientistsIspokewithsaidthatmostofwhattheyknowcomesfromoneoftwo
places:

1.Politicallygenericstudiesthatareaimedatincreasingvoterparticipation,regardless
ofparty.Thisconstitutesthevastmajorityofresearch.

2.Studieswheretheorganizationsandmessagesbeingtestedaredecidedlyleftleaning.
Ithinkitsrighttosaythatthesheernumberofrandomizedtrialsontherightisfar
smallerthanthecomparablenumberontheleft,saidDonGreen,aColumbia
Universitypoliticalscientistwhospecializesinthestudyofpersuasion.When
scientistscomeknocking,theanswertothequestionWhosthere?isverylikelyto
beArepresentativeofaliberalcause.

Conservativecampaignsandcampaignadvisersalsodoalotoftheirownresearch,as
well,butthisworkisntusuallypeerreviewedandpublished,norisittypicallydone
incollaborationwithacademics.Partly,thisistheresultofhowthescientistsfunding
isstructured.Butitsalsobecauseofafrequentlyoverlookedfact:Scientistsare
people,too.
Wearentallowedtodopartisanworkwithourresearchmoneyfromfederal
sources,saidDianaMutz,directoroftheInstitutefortheStudyofCitizensand
PoliticsattheUniversityofPennsylvania.Eventhen,therearesomekindsofactivities
thatresearcherscantengagein,becauseofIRSrulesthatgovernthebehaviorofnon
profits,includingcharitablefoundationsanduniversities.

Scientistssaythatthisiswheretheirownbiasescomeintoplay.Thepeoplewhostudy
thepsychologyofpoliticalpersuasiontendtobeliberal,saidGreen,MutzandDaron
Shaw,aprofessorofgovernmentattheUniversityofTexasatAustin.Thepeoplewho
earndoctoratesinpersuasionscienceandthenleaveacademiatoworkforcampaigns
followthesamepattern.Theresearcherssaidtheydontthinkanyoneisintentionally
excludingconservativecampaignssomethingDaveCarney,anindependent
conservativecampaignconsultant,agreedwith.Buttheirowninterestsandpersonal
connectionsmoreeasilyleadthemtoquestionsandcollaboratorsontheliberalside.

Thinkofitasaproblemofsupplyanddemand,saidAlexanderCoppock,assistant
professorofpoliticalscienceatYale.Therejustarentthatmanypeopleinacademia
activelyseekingoutcollaborationswiththeright,andtherearentmanypeopleonthe
rightactivelyseekingoutcollaborationswithacademia.

Sure,conservativecampaignsaredoingtonsoftheirownresearch.Butthatkindof
dataanalyticsisreallyaimedatunderstandingwhatwillhelpanindividualcandidate
getelectedrightnow,Shawsaid.Itsnotnecessarilyapplicabletoothercandidatesor
campaigns.Academicresearchisfocusedonbiggerquestionsaboutthehumanmind
andhowitcanbechanged,hetoldme.Therearesomebig,elephantshapedholesin
thispublicbodyofknowledge.

Collaborationsbetweenconservativecampaignsandacademiadohappen,however,
andtheyrevaluabletoboththecampaignsandthescientists.

In2014,ShawandCarneycollaboratedonastudyoftheeffectsofdifferentkindsof
advertisementsintheTexasgubernatorialRepublicanprimary.Theyfoundthatads
particularlyonesontheradioandbroadcastTVwereabletosignificantlyraise
candidateGregAbbottsfavorabilityamonglikelyvotersbutdidntdomuchtoturn
likelyvotersintoactualones.Thecampaignfoundoutwhichofitsbuysweremost
effective.Thescientistsaddedanotherhashmarktoagrowingtallyofresearchthat
suggestsalotofthethingscampaignsdotogetacandidateelectedarentdoing
anythingtogetthecandidateelected.

Greenpointedtoanotherrecentstudy,presentedatthe2015AnnualConferenceof
theMidwestPoliticalScienceAssociation,thatfoundincreasingquantitiesof
targeted,directmaildidalmostnothingtoswingvotesinNorthCarolinalegislative
electionsortochangevotersminds.Thatstudywasacollaborationwiththe
generallyconservativeleaningNorthCarolinaChamberofCommerce.Findingno
mobilizingeffectofpartisanmailisntnews,Greensaid.Buttherelativelylimited
persuasioneffectisacorrectivetothenotionthatyoucanjustthrowmoneyatit.

Coldcashandcoldercallingdontseemtohavemuchimpactontheoutcomesof
elections,foreithertheleftortheright,Greensaid.Ingeneral,themostinteresting
thingscientistshavelearnedfromstudyingpersuasionacrossthepoliticalspectrumis
thattheredontseemtobeanybigdifferencesinhowpersuasionworksateitherend.

ThatmatterstothosewhowanttousetheBroockmanKallastudyasthebasisoftheir
ownwork.DaveFleischer,projectdirectoroftheL.A.LGBTCentersLeadershipLAB,
saidhethinksthetechniquehehelpeddevelopanintensivetypeofdoortodoor
canvassingwherevolunteerstriedtoelicitempathyinsubjectsbyhelpingthemrelate
theirpersonalexperiencestothoseoftransgenderpeoplewouldbedifficultfor
conservativecampaignstouse.Wevenoticedthatwereuncoveringadisjunction
betweenvotersopinions,thatareoftenmoreconservative,andtheiractuallived
experience,thatisoftenmoreliberal.Theybecomelessprejudicedbecausethey
revisetheiropinionsinlightofreal,livedexperience,hesaid.Iwontgosofarasto
saythattheresaliberaltryingtoclawitswayoutofeveryconservativevoter.ButI
willsaythatitsclosertotruththantheideathattheresalotofpotentialtousethis
ontheconservativeside.

Butpersuasionresearchsuggestshemightbewrong.Carney,theconservative
campaignconsultant,canalreadyimaginehowthetechniquecouldbeusedbythe
rightforcanvassingrelatedtotheabortiondebate.Insteadofbuildingempathyfor
transgenderpeople,thetechniquecouldhelpvotersemotionallyconnecttowomen
whoregrettheirabortions,orpeoplewhosurvivedabortionattempts.

Althoughscientistsarefindingthatpersuasiondoesntdiffermuchfromlefttoright,
itsstillimportanttofieldtesthypothesesacrossthepoliticalspectrum,Coppocksaid.
Infact,broadspectrumtestingisimportantpreciselybecauseithasshownsolittle
difference.

Forhisdissertationthisyear,Coppockpublishedtheresultsof20surveyexperiments
thatattemptedtochangepeoplesopinionsonissuessuchascapitalpunishment,the
minimumwageandclimatechange.Thestudieswerestructuredsothatsubjectswere
splitintogroups,andeachgroupreceiveddifferentperspectivesontheissuessome
gotanargumentinfavorofcapitalpunishment,forexample,othersgotoneagainstit.
Hefoundthat,whilethepersuasiveeffectsweresmallonascaleof1to10,hewas
shiftingpeoplesopinionsbymaybehalfapointtheypersistedthroughhis10day
followup.

Whatsmore,everyonewasaffected,nomattertheirpreviousbeliefsandpolitical
leanings.Republicanscouldbeshiftedtoslightlyincreasetheirbeliefin
anthropogenicclimatechange.Democratscouldbeshiftedtoslightlydecreasetheir
supportforraisingtheminimumwage.Acrosstheboard,peopleexposedtological
argumentswerepersuadedbythem.

Manypeoplebelieveeffectswillbeconditionalonthekindofpersonyouare,i.e.,
RepublicanswillbehavedifferentlyfromDemocrats,becausetheyseeRepublicans
andDemocratsbehavingsodifferentlyfromoneanother,Coppocksaid.Itturnsout
thattheydontbehavesodifferentlyinresponsetoinformation.2

CORRECTION(July1,4:37p.m.):Anearlierversionofthisarticlemisstatedthe
limitationsoffederallyfundedresearchintopartisanissues.Thatresearch(unlike
electoralorballotissues)canbefundedbyfederalsourcesitisnotbarredfrom
receivingfederalfunds.TheBroockmanKallapaperwasfundedbyanindependent
charitybecausetheauthorschosetofunditthatway,notbecauseoffederal
limitations.

Footnotes

1.Notforlackoftrying.And,inthecourseoftryingtomakeaknockknockjokework,I
discoveredthatthepopularityofknockknockjokesinAmericahassomerootsinthe1936
presidentialelection,thankstoRepublicanAlfLandonsdecisiontochoosearunningmate
namedFrankKnox.Seriously.^
2.HeresthebestpoliticalknockknockjokeIfoundonline.Knockknock.Whosthere?The
IRS.Weretakingyourhouse.^