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1. A nylon rope maker claims its repelling rope's average breaking strength is at least 800 pounds. A researcher
sets up a hypothesis test regarding the breaking strength of the rope where Ho: 800. where = .05.
a. Rewrite his null and alternative hypotheses as complete sentences. What does the hypothesis suggest about
where the benefit of the doubt is being placed? Explain your answer.
The null states that the average breaking strength is less than (no more than) 800 pounds. This assumes that the
rope is weak, and puts the burden of proof on the rope.
The alternative is that the rope will hold more than 800 pounds. (the rope is strong)
b. What does it mean to make a type I error, and, specifically, what would constitute a type one error in this
case?
A type I error is believing the alternative when it is false. In this case we believe the rope is strong when it is
not.
so we have a 5% chance that we believe the rope is strong when it isnt. This should be lower, if making this
mistake could result in personal injury.
d. what would we conclude if the sample average was much larger than 800 pounds?
e. what would we conclude if the sample average was slightly less than 800 pounds?
When Waders Inc. presents United with the test results, Sam claims that you might find the same
average over a sample of their own flights, and so the results are inconclusive.
We are using a z because the standard deviation came from a population. (Testing Sams claim
that united could have a sample of 650 based on their average and standard deviation)*******
We can be 90 percent sure that sally is cheaper. (We could not be 99% sure of this)
**** This problem could have been solved with a t if you used s=140 instead of =120.
2. Last year Alert Americas residential alarm system sales reps, sold an average of 50 systems
per salesperson. This year sales seem slower. As with most sales forces of this type, employee
turnover has been brisk, but this year the problem seems worse than usual. Last year, the
average tenure (time with the company) of an Alert America sales representative was 2.9 years
with a standard deviation of 2 years. When the company inventoried tenure in May, the average
of a random sample of thirty-six sales representatives was only 2 years, but the standard
deviation was 3 years. Management opinion is divided as to what to make of the difference.
Some think that this is just a temporary abnormality, while others think that this is evidence of an
underlying problem. As chief of statistical analysis, each side turns to you for your opinion.
**** This problem could have been solved with a t if you used s=3 instead of =2.
3. McDonalds has been considering dropping the pickles from its burgers. There is some
sentiment that the ubiquitous pickle adds to the cost of the sandwich, but most people remove
them anyway. The CEO decides that if we can be reasonably certain more than two-thirds of
customers remove the pickle, then the pickle should no longer be placed on the sandwich
(except by request). Ronald was enlisted to spy on a random sample of one thousand
customers. He found that 69 percent removed the pickle. What should the company do and
why?
Proportions:
Ho : .67 (fewer than 2/3 remove the pickle: Keep the pickle)
H1 : > .67 (more than 2/3 remove the pickle: get rid of the pickle)
Since we are trying to show that people dont like the pickle, that has to be the alternative.
Z = (.69 - .67)/(.33)(.67)/1000)=1.345
.01 Reject Ho
We can NOT be at least 99 percent sure that more than 2/3 remove the pickle. (though we could
be 90 percent sure). In this case we need definitive evidence. After all the pickle is ubiquitous.
Using confidence intervals :
.692.57(.69)(.31)/1000
.692.57*.0146
.69.038
.652 to .728 we can be 99 percent sure that percentage of all customers that remove
the pickle is between 65 and 73 percent. So if the 2/3 rule is critical, we can not be
sure that that many remove the pickle, so we should leave it.
Note that when we use confidence intervals all the information is from the sample. We use the
sample to make inferences about the populations. In the Hypothesis test we assume that the
status quo is true, ad we build evidence against it.
Mc Donalds is also considering changing pickle suppliers. With the current supplier, each
McDs pays an average of 1 cent per pickle. A rival in a sample of 49 pickle prices from a rival
supplier (pickle prices vary by region due to shipping costs etc.) The average price was .9 cents
per pickle with a standard deviation of .02 cents. Should we switch suppliers? Explain why or
why not.
We can be 90 percent sure that the new vendor is better. The new vendor s sample is 35
standard errors below 1 cent. This is a huge difference, but that is because the standard
deviation (.02 cents) is so small. (If I were working this problem, I would investigate that
number. It is possible that it should have read 2 cents.
We can NOT be 90 percent sure that Ridge is worse. Ridge is only .25 standard errors below
the average. Substantial evidence of being soft on crime would be finding a sample average that
was more than 2.423 standard errors below average
Using confidence intervals :
10.51.684*14/49
10.51.684*2
10.5.3.368
7.13 to 13.87 We can be 90 percent sure that average jail stay is between 7.13 and
13.87 years So it is possible that Ridge is soft on crime; however, it is also possible
that he is tough.
6. Each year accounting students from colleges across the nation take the CPA exam.
Nationally, the pass rate is one-third. West Chester students traditionally fare very well on
these exams. Recently, forty-five West Chester students took the CPA exam and eighteen
passed on their first try. Can we be reasonably sure that a higher percentage West Chester
students pass the exam?
Proportions:
Ho : .33 (wcu is no better than average)
H1 : > .33 (wcu is better than average)
Since we are trying to show that wcu is better, that has to be the alternative.
Z = (.4 - .33)/(.33)(.67)/45)=1
.10 Reject Ho
.33 1 1.28