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Ifanuclearbombisdroppedonyourcity,
here'swhereyoushouldrunandhide
DAVEMOSHERANDANDYKIERSZ
21H
Shutterstock
Peoplewhosurviveanuclearblastmaybeexposedtoradioactiveashanddustcalledfallout.
Findingagoodshelterassoonaspossibleandgoinginsideiscriticaltosurvivingfallout.
Ascientisthascomeupwithastrategyforwhenandwhethertomovetoabetterfallout
shelter.
PresidentTrumphaseggedonanewarmsrace.Russiaviolatedweaponstreatiestoupgradeitsnucleararsenal.
NorthKoreaisdevelopinglongrangemissilesandpracticingfornuclearwarandtheUSmilitaryis
consideringpreemptiveattacksontheisolatednation'smilitaryfacilities.
Meanwhile,nuclearterrorismanddirtybombsremainasoberingthreat.
Thoughtheseeventsareunlikelytotriggerthelastditchoptionofnuclearwar,letaloneablastinyour
neighborhood,theyareveryconcerning.
Soyoumightbewondering,"IfIsurviveanuclearbombattack,whatshouldIdo?"
MichaelDillon,aLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratoryresearcher,crunchedthenumbersandhelpedfigure
outjustthatina2014studypublishedinthejournalProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:Mathematicaland
PhysicalSciences.
Likewise,governmentagenciesandotherorganizationshavealsoexploredtheharrowingquestionandcameup
withdetailedrecommendationsandresponseplans.
Thescenario
http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclearexplosionfalloutradiationsurvivalshelter20173 1/6
3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider
Youareinalargecitythathasjust
beensubjectedtoasingle,lowyield
nucleardetonation,between0.1and
10kilotons.
Thisismuchlesspowerfulthanthe
bombdroppedonHiroshima
about15kilotons.However,it'snot
unlikelywhenlookingatweapons
likethenewB6112gravitybomb,
whichisbuiltbytheUS,maxesoutat
50kilotons,andcanbedialeddown
to0.3kilotons.(RussiaandPakistan
areworkingonsimilarsocalled
"tactical"nuclearweapons.)
TTstudio/Shutterstock
Studieshaveshownthatyouandup
to100,000ofyourfellowcitizenscan
besavedthatis,ifyoukeepyour
witsaboutandradiationexposurelowenough.
Oneofyourbiggestandmostimmediategoalsistoavoidnuclearfallout.
Howtoavoidfalloutradiation
Falloutisamessofbombmaterial,soil,anddebristhatisvaporized,maderadioactive,andsprinkledasdustand
ashacrossthelandscapebyprevailingwinds.(InNewYorkCity,forexample,afalloutzonewouldspread
eastward.)
FEMA
Thebestthingtodoistofindagoodplacetohidethemoredensematerialbetweenyouandtheoutsideworld,
thebetterthenwaituntiltherescuerscanmaketheirwaytohelpyou.
TheUSgovernmentrecommendshidinginanearbybuilding,butnotallofthemprovidemuchshelterfrom
nuclearfallout.
Poorshelters,whichincludeabout20%ofhouses,areconstructedoflightweightmaterialsandlackbasements.
Thebestsheltersarethickbrickorconcreteandlackwindows.Likeabombshelter.
Thisinfographicfromagovernmentguidetotheaftermathofnuclearattacksgivesaroughideaonwhatmakesa
buildingagoodorbadplacetohidefromfallout:
http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclearexplosionfalloutradiationsurvivalshelter20173 2/6
3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider
Levelsofprotectionfromradiationthatvariousbuildingsandlocationsoffer.
LawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory/FEMA
Hidinginthesubbasementofabrickfivestoryapartmentbuilding,forexample,shouldexposeyoutojust
1/200oftheamountoffalloutradiationoutside.
Meanwhile,hangingoutinthelivingroomofyouronestory,woodframehousewillonlycutdowntheradiation
byhalf,whichifyouarenexttoanuclearexplosionwillnotdomuchtohelpyou.
So,whatdoyoudoifthereisn'tagoodshelterrightnearyou?Shouldyoustayina"poor"shelter,orrisk
exposuretofindabetterone?Andhowlongshouldyouwait?
Shouldyoustayorshouldyougo?
Inhis2014study,Dillondevelopedmodelstodetermineyourbestoptions.Whiletheanswerdependsonhowfar
awayyouarefromtheblast,sincethatwilldeterminewhenthefalloutarrives,therearesomegeneralrulesto
follow.
Ifyouareimmediatelynexttoorinasolidshelterwhenthebombgoesoff,staythereuntiltherescuerscometo
evacuateyoutolessradioactivevistas.
Ifyouaren'talreadyinabombshelter,butknowagoodshelterisaboutfiveminutesawaymaybealarge
apartmentbuildingwithabasementthatyoucanseeafewblocksawayhiscalculationssuggesthoofingitover
therequicklyandstayinginplace.
Butifthenice,thickwalledbuildingwouldtakeabout15minutestraveltime,it'sbettertoholeupintheflimsy
shelterforawhilebutyoushouldprobablyleaveforabettershelterafterroughlyanhour(andmaybepickup
somebeersandsodasontheway:Astudyinthe'50sfoundtheytastefineafterablast).
Thisisbecausesomeofthemostintensefalloutradiationhassubsidedbythen,thoughyoustillwanttoreduce
yourexposure.
http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclearexplosionfalloutradiationsurvivalshelter20173 3/6
3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider
M.B.Dillon/ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:MathematicalandPhysical
Sciences
Otherfalloutadvice
BelowaresomeotherguidelinesthatDilloncompiledfromotherstudiesandarebasedonhowdecentyourfirst
andsecondsheltersare:
M.B.Dillon/ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:MathematicalandPhysicalSciences
Oneofthebigadvantagesoftheapproachthatthispaperusesisthat,todecideonastrategy,evacuationofficials
needtoconsideronlytheradiationlevelsnearsheltersandalongevacuationroutestheoverallpatternofthe
radioactivedeathclouddoesnotfactorintothemodels.Thismeansdecisionscanbemadequicklyandwithout
muchcommunicationorcentralorganization(whichmaybespareintheminutesandhoursafterablast).
Otherresearchershaveanalyzedothersimilarscenariosinpapers,whosefindingsaresummarizedinthechart
below:
http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclearexplosionfalloutradiationsurvivalshelter20173 4/6
3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider
M.B.Dillon/ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:MathematicalandPhysicalSciences
JenniferWelshwroteapreviousversionofthispostwithAndyKiersz.
http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclearexplosionfalloutradiationsurvivalshelter20173 5/6