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Table of Contents

Table of Contents Introduction 4 Total Natural Resources Reserves 4 Total Energy Consumption 4 Total

Introduction

4

Total Natural Resources Reserves

4

Total Energy Consumption

4

Total Installed Generation Capacity

6

Total Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption

7

Electricity Shortfall

10

New Capacity Addition

10

Renewable Energy Potential in Pakistan

10

Solar & Wind variability in Pakistan (Annually, Monthly & Daily)

13

Renewable Energy Installations

13

Renewable Energy Policy (Tariffs, Incentives, Time etc)

13

Renewable Energy Tariffs

14

Electricity Cost Comparison with Renewable Energy FIT’s

14

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

16

Annex List of Power Plants

17

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List of Figures

List of Figures Fig.1 Total Energy Consumption in Pakistan – 2014 4 Fig.2 Energy Consumption by

Fig.1 Total Energy Consumption in Pakistan 2014

4

Fig.2 Energy Consumption by Sectors - 2014

5

Fig.3 Electricity Consumption by Sectors - 2014

5

Fig.4 Total Installed Generation Capacity 2015

6

Fig.5 Total Power Generation ( 2004 2013)

7

Fig.6 Electricity Production GWh by Fuel Type (2003 2013)

8

Fig.7 Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors (2004 - 2013)

9

Fig.8 Global Horizontal Irradiation of Pakistan

11

Fig. 9 Wind Power Map 50 m - Pakistan

12

Fig. 10 Electricity Cost Comparison with RE FIT

15

List of Tables

 

4

Table : 1 Total Natural Resources Reserves Table 2 -Power Generation Capacity Addition 2015-16, Planning Commission Pakistan

10

Table 3 Renewable Energy Installations

13

Table 4 Feed in Tariff for Solar PV

14

Table 5 Feed in Tariff for Wind Power

14

Table 6 –Electricity Cost Comparison with R.E FIT’s

14

Table 7 Registered Projects with CDM

16

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Introduction Pakistan is the sixth-most populous country with a population exceeding 199 million people. It

Introduction Pakistan is the sixth-most populous country with a population exceeding 199 million people. It is the 36th largest country in the world in terms of area with an area covering 881,913 km 2 . Pakistan has a 1,046-kilometre (650 mi) coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is bordered by India to the east, Afghanistan to the west, Iran to the southwest and China in the far northeast respectively. It is separated from Tajikistan by Afghanistan's narrow Wakhan Corridor in the north.

Total Natural Resources Reserves

Resources

Value

Updated Till

Source

Coal Reserves

184.5 billion Tonnes

2013

Ministry of Petroleum

Crude Oil Reserves

371 million bbl

2015

CIA World Factbook

Natural Gas Reserves

754.6 billion m 3

2014

CIA World Factbook

Table : 1 Total Natural Resources Reserves

Total Energy Consumption In Pakistan oil and gas are two key components of energy mix contributing almost 73 percent (oil 29% and gas 44%) during 2012 while share of coal & LPG is almost 10 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Pakistan is one of the largest consumers of gas in the region while Pakistan’s proven coal reserves are the world’s sixth largest.

Total Energy Consumption COAL 9% GAS 41% ELECTRICITY 17% OIL LPG 32% 1%
Total Energy Consumption
COAL
9%
GAS
41%
ELECTRICITY
17%
OIL
LPG
32%
1%

Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan - 2014

Fig.1 Total Energy Consumption in Pakistan 2014

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Energy Consumption by Sectors 32% 30% 2% 2% 2% DOMESTIC 2% 2008-09 COMMERCIAL 2013-14 INDUSTRIAL
Energy Consumption by Sectors 32% 30% 2% 2% 2% DOMESTIC 2% 2008-09 COMMERCIAL 2013-14 INDUSTRIAL
Energy Consumption by Sectors
32%
30%
2%
2%
2%
DOMESTIC
2%
2008-09
COMMERCIAL
2013-14
INDUSTRIAL
22%
25%
AGRICULTURE
TRANSPORT
40%
4%
OTHER GOVT
35%
4%
Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan - 2014

Fig.2 Energy Consumption by Sectors - 2014

The Above graph shows that how energy consumption has changed over the years in pakistan since 2008. Still industy is the major energy consumption sector in pakistan.

The share of electricity is just 17 percent in total energy consumption this year as shown in fig. 1, which is further classified into different sectors below:

Electricity Consumption by Sectors

Electricity Consumption by Sectors AGRICULTURE 12.5% INDUSTRIAL 27.5% BULK SUPPLIES 5.9% DOMESTIC 45.9% STREET LIGHT

AGRICULTURE

12.5%

Electricity Consumption by Sectors AGRICULTURE 12.5% INDUSTRIAL 27.5% BULK SUPPLIES 5.9% DOMESTIC 45.9% STREET LIGHT

INDUSTRIAL

27.5%

BULK SUPPLIES

5.9% DOMESTIC 45.9%
5.9%
DOMESTIC
45.9%

STREET LIGHT

0.6%

COMMERCIAL

7.5%

OTHER GOVT

0.1%

Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan - 2014

Fig.3 Electricity Consumption by Sectors - 2014

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Due to urbanization the population density is increasing in urban areas increasing the energy consumption

Due to urbanization the population density is increasing in urban areas increasing the energy consumption profiles. The percentage population having access to electricity is increasing. According to world bank stats 95% of urban population has access to electricity.

Total Installed Generation Capacity

Total Installed Power Generation Capacity - MW

Sources : WAPDA, NEPRA

Oil, 33.4% Nuclear, 3.5% Coal, 0.6% Gas , 29.2% Wind, 1.1% Hydel, 31.7% Solar, 0.4%
Oil, 33.4%
Nuclear, 3.5%
Coal, 0.6%
Gas , 29.2%
Wind, 1.1%
Hydel, 31.7%
Solar, 0.4%
Fig.4 Total Installed Generation Capacity – 2015

As Pakistan is facing severe electricity shortfall which peaks up to 6000 MW, so the Government of Pakistan has taken the initiative for low cost power generation plants and making the transmission and distribution network better. Renewable Energy integration is being promoted by giving feed in tariffs and other incentives to attract investors from the private sector as well. As shown in the graph above already solar and wind farms have been started working and new are under installation phase.

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Total Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption

Total Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption IEA Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/statistics/ Electricity

IEA Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/statistics/

Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption

Electricity Production Vs Electricity Consumption 98,213 95,661 95,357 94,384 95,090 96,125 97,796
98,213 95,661 95,357 94,384 95,090 96,125 97,796 100000 93,629 91,616 85,629 74,390 77,168 78,890 76,929
98,213
95,661
95,357
94,384
95,090
96,125
97,796
100000
93,629
91,616
85,629
74,390
77,168
78,890
76,929
76,788
80000
72,849
73,430
70,382
67,807
61,397
60000
40000
20000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Electricity Production - GWh
Electricity Consumption - GWh
GWh

Fig.5 Total Power Generation ( 2004 2013)

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Electricity Production by Fuel Type - GWh 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2004

Electricity Production by Fuel Type - GWh

Electricity Production by Fuel Type - GWh 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2004 2005
120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
IEA Energy Statistics
http://www.iea.org/statistics/

Fig.6 Electricity Production GWh by Fuel Type (2003 2013)

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

IEA Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/statistics/ Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors - GWh 90000 80000

IEA Energy Statistics http://www.iea.org/statistics/

Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors - GWh

Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors - GWh 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

GWh 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

 
  Industry Transport Residential Commercial & Public Services Agriculture/Forestry

Industry

  Industry Transport Residential Commercial & Public Services Agriculture/Forestry

Transport

  Industry Transport Residential Commercial & Public Services Agriculture/Forestry

Residential

Commercial & Public Services Agriculture/Forestry

Commercial & Public Services

Agriculture/Forestry

Fig.7 Electricity Consumption in Major Sectors (2004 - 2013)

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Electricity Shortfall The electricity industry faces problems with power generation theft, insufficient collection rates,

Electricity Shortfall The electricity industry faces problems with power generation theft, insufficient collection rates, line losses, high natural gas subsidies, the high cost of furnace oil used in place of natural gas, and insufficient natural gas supply. These problems have resulted in the poor financial position of generation companies, leading to widespread power shortages.

New Capacity Addition An amount of Rs317,177 million has been allocated for various power projects for 2015-16 of the Ministry of Water and Power, Ministry of Kashmir affairs and Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority. The WAPDA, NTDC, GENCOs and DISCOs will invest Rs174,950 million from their own resources. The installed power generating capacity is planned to be increased from 24,830 MW in June 2015 to 25,857 MW in June 2016 through an addition of 1,027 MW in system. The break up is given below:

 

Capacity Addition 2015-16 (MW)

 
       

Capacity

Commissioning

Sr. #

Name of Project

Agency

Fuel

(MW)

Date

1

Chashma-III Nuclear Power Plant

PAEC

Nuclear

340

Apr-16

2

Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park Phase-II

PTDB

Solar

300

2015

-16

3

Nandipur CCPP

GENCO

Gas

100

2015

-16

4

Sapphire Wind Power Co.

AEDB

wind

49.5

Dec-15

5

Chiniot Power Ltd

AEDB

Bagasse

62.4

Dec-15

6

RYK Mills Limited

AEDB

Bagasse

30

Dec-15

7

Hamza Sugar Mills Ltd

AEDB

Bagasse

15

Dec-15

8

Yunus Energy Ltd

AEDB

Wind

50

Jun-16

9

Tapal Wind Power Pvt Ltd

AEDB

Wind

30

Jun-16

10

Metro Power Co. Pvt Ltd

AEDB

Wind

50

Jun-16

 

Total Addition 2015-16

   

1027

 

Table 2 -Power Generation Capacity Addition 2015-16, Planning Commission Pakistan

Renewable Energy Potential in Pakistan Solar Energy Pakistan lies in a region of high solar irradiance with most regions receiving approximately 8 to 10 sunlight hours per day. The potential installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power is estimated to be 1,600 GW per year, providing approximately 3.5 PWh of electricity.

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Fig.8 Global Horizontal Irradiation of Pakistan COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad
Fig.8 Global Horizontal Irradiation of Pakistan COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Fig.8 Global Horizontal Irradiation of Pakistan

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Wind Energy Wind energy also has strong technical potential in Pakistan, particularly in the southern

Wind Energy Wind energy also has strong technical potential in Pakistan, particularly in the southern regions of Sindh and Balochistan. Pakistan has approximately 1,000 km of coastline with steady average wind speeds ranging between 5 and 7 m/s. The projected installed capacity for wind energy is estimated at 122.6 GW per year, providing approximately 212 TWh of electricity.

GW per year, providing approximately 212 TWh of electricity. Fig. 9 Wind Power Map – 50

Fig. 9 Wind Power Map 50 m - Pakistan

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Solar & Wind variability in Pakistan (Annually, Monthly & Daily) Renewable Energy Installations    

Solar & Wind variability in Pakistan (Annually, Monthly & Daily)

Renewable Energy Installations

   

Capacity

Location

Technologies

Name

MW

Completed / Commissioned Projects

 
 

FFC Energy Limited

49.5

Jhimpir

Zorlu Enerji Pakistan (Pvt.) Limited

56.4

Jhimpir

Wind

Three Gorges Pakistan First Wind Farm (Pvt.) Limited

49.5

Jhimpir

Foundation Wind Energy II (Pvt.) Limited

50

Gharo

Foundation Wind Energy I Limited

50

Gharo

Solar

Quaid - E - Azam Solar Co. Pvt Ltd

100

Bahawalpur

Total Commissioned Project Capacity

355.4 MW

Table 3 Renewable Energy Installations

Renewable Energy Policy (Tariffs, Incentives, Time etc) The GoP has set an ambitious target of having at least 5% of the total power generation of the country (i.e. 9700 MW) through alternative energy by 2030 that would have a descent share coming from solar & wind power. Incentives given by GoP for renewable energy promotion are as follows:

Wind Risk (risk of variability of wind speed).

Guaranteed Electricity Purchase.

Grid provision is the responsibility of the purchaser

Protection against political risk.

Attractive Tariff (Cost plus 17% ROE), indexed to inflation & exchange rate variation (Rupee / Dollar).

Euro / Dollar Parity allowed.

Carbon Credits available.

No Import Duties on Equipment.

Exemption on Income Tax / Withholding Tax and Sales Tax.

Permission to issue corporate registered bonds.

Building capacities of the public sector institutions in solar power projects

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Renewable Energy Tariffs NEPRA, has announced (January 22, 2015) revised new upfront tariff for solar

Renewable Energy Tariffs NEPRA, has announced (January 22, 2015) revised new upfront tariff for solar PV power projects at following rates.

 

Levelized Tariff for Solar PV Power Projects (US Cents/kWh)

 

North (LIBOR)

 

South (LIBOR)

1 - 20MW

21 - 50 MW

51 - 100 MW

1 - 20MW

21 - 50 MW

51 - 100 MW

15.0279

14.8953

14.7588

14.4096

14.2825

14.1516

Table 4 Feed in Tariff for Solar PV

 

Levelized Tariff for Wind Power Projects (Rs/kWh)

 

Levelized Tariff on 100 % Foreign Loan

Levelized Tariff on 100 % Local Loan

   

Levelized -

   

Levelized -

Years 1- 10

Years 11- 20

Rs.Kwh

Years 1- 10

Years 11- 20

Rs.Kwh

12.4782

5.7458

10.6048

15.3226

5.9208

12.7064

Table 5 Feed in Tariff for Wind Power

Net annual energy generation supplied to the power purchaser in a year, in excess of 35% net annual plant capacity factor will be charged at the following tariffs:

Net Annual Capacity Factor

% of the Prevelant Tariff

From 35% to 36%

75%

From 36% to 37%

80%

Above 37%

100%

Electricity Cost Comparison with Renewable Energy FIT’s

Sr .

Country

Electricity Rate (US cents/kWh)

Feed in Tariff for Solar

Feed in Tariff for Wind

Updated

No.

On

1

13

19.37

8.91

2015

2

14.25

14

12

2016

3

14.76

33.4

 

2013

4

UAE

11.98

9.69

 

2013

5

9.24

16.7

14.47

2014

6

Nigeria

16.55

49

17.9

2016

7

Uganda

 

36.2

12.4

2014

8

18

7

11

2013

9

32.04

12.08

9.47

2015

10

France

19.39

8.2

9.13

2014

Table 6 –Electricity Cost Comparison with R.E FIT’s

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Electricity Rate VS Feed In Tariff USD Cents/KWh France 19.39 8.2 9.13 Germany 32.04 12.08

Electricity Rate VS Feed In Tariff USD Cents/KWh

France 19.39 8.2 9.13 Germany 32.04 12.08 9.47 India 18 7 11 Uganda 36.2 12.4
France
19.39
8.2
9.13
Germany
32.04
12.08
9.47
India
18
7
11
Uganda
36.2
12.4
Nigeria
16.55
49
17.9
Bangladesh
9.24
16.7
14.47
UAE
11.98
9.69
Malaysia
14.76
33.4
Pakistan
14.25
14
12
Turkey
13
19.37
8.91
0
20
40
60
80
14.25 14 12 Turkey 13 19.37 8.91 0 20 40 60 80 Electricity Rate (US cents/kWh)

Electricity Rate (US cents/kWh)

USD Cents / KWh

8.91 0 20 40 60 80 Electricity Rate (US cents/kWh) USD Cents / KWh Feed in

Feed in Tariff for Solar

8.91 0 20 40 60 80 Electricity Rate (US cents/kWh) USD Cents / KWh Feed in

Feed in Tariff for Wind

Fig. 10 Electricity Cost Comparison with RE FIT

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) The sponsors of ARE projects in Pakistan also have been looking

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) The sponsors of ARE projects in Pakistan also have been looking at this option. 18 RE projects have been registered for 1.3 million CERs annually, and 29 RE projects are in process of registration for 1.6 million CERs annually. Current Market price of one CER is below USD 1; however it is expected to increase as the developed countries are going to re- affirm their commitments to take target to reduce emissions in COP-21 (to be held in Paris in Oct 2015). To avail max benefits from new market situations, the investors are endeavoring to register their projects with CDM. The details of the projects that have started process for CDM registration are as follows:

 

Registered Projects with CDM

 
   

No. of

Cumulative Capacity of Registered Projects (MW)

No. of

Sr. No.

RE Resource

Registered

Approved

Projects

CERs

1

Wind

8

405.9

709287

2

Biomass

8

190

550000

3

Small Hydro

1

15

76000

4

Solar

1

50

33000

Table 7 Registered Projects with CDM

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Annex List of Power Plants

Annex – List of Power Plants   Existing Installed Capacity   Hydel WAPDA     1
 

Existing Installed Capacity

 

Hydel WAPDA

   

1

Tarbela

Hydel

3,478

2

Mangla

Hydel

1,000

3

Ghazi Barotha

Hydel

1,450

4

Warsak

Hydel

243

5

Chashma Low Head

Hydel

184

6

Allai Khwar HPP

Hydel

121

7

Jinnah Low Head

Hydel

96

8

Small Hydels5

Hydel

106

9

Khan Khwar HPP

Hydel

72

10

Dubair Khwar HPP

Hydel

130

 

Sub-Total (WAPDA Hydel)

 

6,902

 

Others

   

11

Jagran Hydel

Hydel

30

12

Malakand-III Hydel

Hydel

81

 

Total Hydel

 

7,013

GENCOs

 

13

TPS Jamshoro #1-4

Gas/FO/RFO

850

14

GTPS Kotri #1-7

Gas/HSD

174

 

Sub-Total GENCO-I

 

1,024

15

TPS Guddu Steam #1-13

Gas/FO

1,655

16

Guddu 747

Gas

747

17

TPS Quetta

Gas

35

 

Sub-Total GENCO-II

 

2,437

18

TPS Muzaffargarh #1-6

RFO/FO/Gas

1,350

19

NGPS Multan #1&2

Gas/RFO/HSD/FO

195

20

GTPS Faisalabad #1-9

Gas/HSD

244

21

SPS Faisalabad #1&2

FO/Gas/ RFO

132

22

Shahdara G.T.

Gas

44

23

Nandipur

RFO

286

 

Sub-Total GENCO-III

 

2,251

24

FBC Lakhra

Coal

150

 

Sub-Total GENCO-IV

 

150

 

Sub-Total GENCOs

 

5,862

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad

Nuclear 25 Chashma Nuclear (PAEC)-I Uranium 325 26 Chashma Nuclear (PAEC)-II Uranium 340

Nuclear

25

Chashma Nuclear (PAEC)-I

Uranium

325

26

Chashma Nuclear (PAEC)-II

Uranium

340

 

Sub-Total (Nuclear)

 

665

Hydel IPPs

   

27

New Bong Escape

Hydel

84

 

Sub-Total (Hydel IPPs)

 

195

Thermal IPPs

   

28

KAPCO

RFO/Gas/HSD

1,638

29

Hub Power Project (HUBCO)

RFO

1,292

30

Kohinoor Energy Ltd. (KEL)

RFO

131

31

AES Lalpir Ltd.

RFO

362

32

AES Pak Gen (Pvt) Ltd.

RFO

365

33

SEPCOL

RFO

135

34

Habibullah Energy Ltd. (HCPC)

Gas

140

35

Uch Power Project

Gas

586

36

Rousch (Pak) Power Ltd.

Gas

450

37

Fauji Kabirwala (FKPCL)

Gas

157

38

Saba Power Company

RFO

134

39

Japan Power Generation Ltd.

RFO

135

40

Liberty Power Project

Gas

235

41

Altern Energy Ltd. (AEL)

Gas

31

42

Attock Generation PP

RFO

163

43

ATLAS Power

RFO

219

44

Engro P.P. Daharki, Sindh

HSD/Gas/FO

226

45

Saif P.P. Sahiwal, Punjab

Gas/HSD

225

46

Orient P.P. Balloki, Punjab

Gas/HSD

225

47

Nishat P.P. Near Lahore

RFO

200

48

Nishat Chunian Project. Lahore

RFO

200

49

Foundation Power

Gas

175

50

Saphire Muridke

Gas/HSD

225

51

Liberty Tech

RFO

200

52

Hubco Narowal

RFO

220

53

Halmore Bhikki

HSD/Gas

225

54

Uch-II

Gas

375

55

Davis

Gas

10

56

Sub-Total Thermal IPPs

 

8,678

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Wind Power Projects   57 Fauji Wind Power Wind 50 58 Zorlu Energy Wind Power

Wind Power Projects

 

57

Fauji Wind Power

Wind

50

58

Zorlu Energy Wind Power

Wind

56

Total Wind Power Plants

 

106

Total Installed Capacity (Public+Private)

 

22,408

Total Installed Capacity K-Electric

 

2,422

Grand Total (Sub Total + K-Electric)

 

24,830

COMSTECH Secretariat, 33-Constitution Avenue, G-5/2, Islamabad