Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts: A Digest of Economic Forecasts

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Under our agreement this publication may not be

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MARCH 2017 other than the email subscriber without the prior written permission of Consensus Economics Inc.
EASTERN EUROPE A Digest of

CONSENSUS FORECASTS Economic Forecasts
% GDP CPI FX C/A $ % GDP CPI FX
Survey Date
March 20, 2017
Every month, Consensus Economics surveys over 200 prominent Eastern European economic and
financial forecasters for their estimates of a range of variables, including future growth, inflation, foreign
trade, interest rates and exchange rates. More than 25 countries are covered and the reference data,
together with analysis and polls on topical issues, is rushed to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.
Survey Highlights
Page Consensus Forecasts for 2017 inflation have been raised
Individual Country Forecasts
for 11 out of 14 major countries in Central and Eastern
Czech Republic .................................... 2 Europe (see summary table, back page 24). The highest
Hungary ............................................... 4 was for Ukraine (page 20), which rose 0.9%-points to
11.4%. In contrast, Russia (pages 8-9) saw its year-end
Poland ................................................. 6
estimate reduced by 0.1%-point to 4.4%, leading some to
Russia ................................................. 8 speculate that the central bank could cut rates as soon as
Turkey ............................................... 10 March 24 (but a more likely move is at its scheduled
meeting on April 28).
Bulgaria.............................................. 12 Hungary (pages 4-5), Poland (pages 6-7), Bulgaria (page

Croatia ............................................... 13 12), Croatia (page 13) and Slovenia (page 19) have
experienced positive revisions to their 2017 and 2018
Estonia .............................................. 14
GDP growth forecasts, as high-frequency indicators for
Latvia ................................................. 15 Q1 exceeded expectations.
Lithuania ............................................ 16
The 2017 inflation outlook for Turkey (pages 10-11) has
Romania ............................................ 17
deteriorated (i.e. increased) alongside volatility in the lira
Slovakia ............................................. 18 (FX forecasts on page 23). Diplomatic tensions between
Slovenia ............................................. 19 Istanbul and the EU ahead of the April 16 referendum on
consitutional reforms to expand the powers of President
Ukraine .............................................. 20
Erdogan have weighed on investor sentiment.
Our next issue of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts
Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
will be available end of the day April 21, 2017.
Bosnia & Herzegovina, Cyprus .......... 21
4.0 Regional GDP Growth Differences 1
Georgia, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, 3.5
2017 2018
3.0
Moldova, Serbia, Turkmenistan,
2.5
Uzbekistan ......................................... 22
% 2.0
1.5
Foreign Exchange and Oil Price
1.0
Forecasts ........................................... 23
0.5
0.0
World Economic Activity Table ........ 24 Western South-East Central CIS Eastern
Europe Europe Europe Europe
1
For precise regional definitions see back page 24 notes.
Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1462-4001) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., Editor: Che-Wing Pang
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard Deputy Editor: Robert Hunt
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 Fax: (44 20) 7409 2331 www.consensuseconomics.com Assistant Editor: Luke N. George
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
electronic, photocopying, digitalization or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editors and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or provide any warranties or take
any responsibility for the information set forth herein, including for the accuracy, completeness, non-infringement, suitability or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017 1
CZECH REPUBLIC MARCH 2017
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year End Year, Annual Total

% change
Gross Household Gross Industrial Consumer Average Money General Gov.
Domestic Consumption Fixed Production Prices Nominal Supply Budget
Product Investment Wages (M2) Balance,
ESA 10
(% of GDP)
Economic Forecasters 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
UBS 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 2.5 2.3 na na 8.5 9.0 0.5 0.5
IHS Economics 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.2 3.0 4.4 4.5 2.5 2.1 4.5 4.6 8.2 8.4 -0.7 -0.4
Citigroup 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.7 5.0 4.0 4.5 2.6 2.0 5.1 4.9 na na -0.5 -0.6
Komercni Banka 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.1 4.4 4.5 2.2 2.3 4.6 4.4 7.5 4.9 -0.5 -0.3
Ceska Sporitelna 2.7 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.5 1.9 4.6 4.9 na na -0.6 -0.6
Experian 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.5 na na 2.2 2.0 na na na na -0.5 -0.5
Raiffeisen Research 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 4.0 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.5 1.6 4.5 4.2 na na -0.2 0.0
Deutsche Bank 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.5 4.1 na na 2.3 2.0 na na na na -0.6 -0.6
UniCredit 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.1 4.7 4.5 na na -0.6 -0.5
HSBC 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.3 5.0 4.0 4.3 2.5 2.0 5.1 5.0 na na -0.2 -0.2
ING Financial Markets 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.5 4.0 3.3 3.6 2.2 2.1 4.6 4.1 6.3 5.0 0.0 0.1
Moody's Analytics 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.0 2.2 5.6 na na 2.2 2.2 na na 4.5 7.9 na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.3 3.8 3.5 2.3 1.9 na na 7.5 8.2 na na
J&T Bank 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.2 3.5 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.2 4.5 5.0 na na -1.0 -1.0
Vienna Institute - WIIW 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 2.0 1.8 6.2 5.8 7.0 7.0 -0.4 -0.7
Oxford Economics 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.1 3.9 2.9 3.2 2.9 1.8 1.9 3.8 3.6 5.5 4.4 -0.8 -1.1
Euromonitor Intl 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.0 3.8 2.1 2.0 3.6 4.0 na na -0.2 -0.1
CSOB 2.3 2.0 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.9 5.0 4.7 6.5 6.5 -0.6 -0.6
Capital Economics 2.3 2.3 3.5 2.8 3.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 na na na na 0.0 0.5
BNP Paribas 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.4 na na 2.1 1.3 5.5 5.8 na na -0.3 -0.8
IWH Halle Institute 2.2 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.3 2.1 na na na na na na
Generali Investments 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.4 3.7 3.5 4.2 2.4 2.0 4.8 4.8 7.3 7.0 -0.5 -1.0
Consensus (Mean) 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.6 3.5 3.7 2.3 2.0 4.7 4.7 6.9 6.8 -0.4 -0.4
Last Month's Mean 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.6 2.2 2.0 4.8 4.6 7.0 6.3 -0.5 -0.4
3 Months Ago 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.4 1.9 2.0 4.4 7.3 -0.6
High 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.1 4.0 5.6 4.4 4.5 2.6 2.5 6.2 5.8 8.5 9.0 0.5 0.5
Low 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.3 3.6 3.6 4.5 4.4 -1.0 -1.1
Standard Deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.5
Comparison Forecasts
Czech National
Bank (Feb. '17) 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.1 5.0 5.0 2.4 2.2 5.2 4.9 0.4 0.8
EC (Feb. '17) 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.3 0.1 0.2
Finance Min. (Jan. '17) 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.8 3.0 2.0 1.6
IMF (Oct. '16) 2.7 2.4 1.9 2.0 -0.6 -0.4
OECD (Nov. '16) 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.3 3.9 1.8 2.2 -0.2 0.1
Government and Background Data Historical Data 2013 2014 2015 2016
President - Mr Milos Zeman. Prime Minister - Mr. Bohuslav Sobotka. Gross Domestic Product* -0.5 2.7 4.6 2.3
Government - Elections were last held in October 2013. The Social 0.5 1.8 3.1 2.9
Household Consumption*
Democrats have formed a Centre-Left coalition with the ANO Movement
and the Christian Democrats. Next Elections - By October 2017 Gross Fixed Investment* -2.5 3.9 9.1 -3.6
(parliamentary); in 2018 (presidential). Nominal GDP - US$181.8bn Industrial Production* -0.1 5.0 4.6 2.9
(2015). Population - 10.5 million (mid-year, 2015). Koruna/US$ Ex- Consumer Prices* 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.7
change Rate - 24.61 (ave. 2015); Koruna/ - 27.29 (ave. 2015). Nominal Wages* -0.1 2.9 2.7 4.2
Economic Growth & Inflation Money Supply (M2), end year* 5.0 6.6 8.4 6.6
%
* average % change on previous year
8.0
Consumer Consensus General Government Budget -1.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.1 e
6.0 Price Inflation Forecasts Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)

4.0 Merchandise Exports, fob 136.1 144.0 130.3 133.1 e
Merchandise Imports, fob 127.6 133.4 121.8 123.0 e
2.0
Trade Balance, fob-fob 8.4 10.6 8.5 10.1 e
0.0 Current Account Balance -1.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 e
-2.0 GDP 3 Month PRIBOR Interbank 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Growth Deposit Rate, % (end year)
-4.0
10 Year Gov. Bond Yield, 2.2 0.8 0.6 0.5
-6.0 % (end year) US$ billions
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
2 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017
MARCH 2017 CZECH REPUBLIC
Rates on Survey Date Koruna Cap Soon to be Abandoned

Annual Total
0.3% 1.0% 2016 GDP growth of 2.3% was half the pace of 2015,
Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current 3 Month 10 Year although momentum did improve in the final quarter of last
dise dise dise Account PRIBOR Govern- year as growth rose to 0.4% (q-o-q). Improvements in
Exports Imports Trade Balance Interbank ment
(fob, US$bn) (fob, US$bn) Balance (US$bn) Deposit Bond household consumption and external demand lifted the
(fob-fob Rate (%) Yield (%) economy, with the former buoyed by low inflation, aver-
US$bn) aging less than 1% in each of the past three years.
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017
End Jun End Mar End Jun End Mar Exports jumped by 2.1% (q-o-q) in Q4, surpassing the
2018
0.9% increase in imports. The solid trade performance
133.0 150.0 124.3 141.6 8.7 8.5 2.8 2.7 na na na na partly relates to the economic upturn across the EU,
128.4 131.5 116.7 114.7 11.7 16.8 0.9 -1.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 notably in the major euro zone countries, like Germany.
130.5 140.8 123.6 132.9 7.0 7.9 -2.8 -2.3 na na na na
130.5 150.2 120.1 138.0 10.4 12.2 1.6 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 However, optimism about the future performance of the
149.3 172.9 138.0 159.5 11.3 13.4 2.4 3.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 external sector has been dampened by exchange rate
137.9 147.1 126.9 135.0 11.0 12.1 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 uncertainty. Since the end of 2013, the Czech National
132.0 146.5 125.0 138.8 7.0 7.7 2.1 2.5 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.4
128.2 139.7 119.6 131.5 8.6 8.3 2.3 2.2 na na na na
Bank (CNB) has purchased foreign currency to cap the
135.0 141.0 124.0 129.5 11.0 11.5 3.4 4.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 koruna at CZK27.0/ to stave-off deflationary pressures.
133.8 142.5 123.8 132.4 10.0 10.1 1.8 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 With inflation at 2.5% (y-o-y) in February, the CNB has
135.2 148.8 127.3 142.4 8.0 6.4 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 signalled a likely removal of the FX ceiling in Q2.
na na na na na na 3.0 1.3 na na 0.6 0.8
148.2 156.8 138.2 147.3 10.0 9.5 1.4 0.5 na na na na
129.2 137.3 119.9 128.6 9.3 8.7 -1.6 -0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 Industrial production rose by 4.3% (y-o-y) in January
134.0 139.0 125.0 131.0 9.0 8.0 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 (working-day adjusted), but construction output remained
133.0 141.6 120.0 126.3 13.0 15.3 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 weak. Manufacturing of motor vehicles was buoyant,
na na na na na na 1.5 1.2 na na 0.4 0.2
133.8 152.3 124.0 141.3 9.8 11.0 2.3 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.2 although a slowdown in EU car sales in February sug-
137.7 144.6 126.8 133.2 10.8 11.4 2.0 1.0 na na na na gests that the solid trend could moderate.
128.3 144.8 118.3 134.7 10.0 10.1 2.1 1.1 na na na na
137.1 150.9 127.7 138.3 9.4 12.6 -0.6 0.2 na na na na
GDP Growth Moderate Momentum
136.5 141.5 126.6 132.5 9.9 9.0 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 2016 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of: 2017
%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
134.6 146.0 124.8 135.5 9.8 10.5 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.8
134.6 147.4 125.0 136.9 9.6 10.4 1.6 1.3

2017 GDP
138.8 129.3 9.6 1.6
Growth
149.3 172.9 138.2 159.5 13.0 16.8 3.4 4.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.7
Forecasts (%)
128.2 131.5 116.7 114.7 7.0 6.4 -2.8 -2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 2018 GDP
5.7 8.7 5.6 9.0 1.5 2.7 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 Growth
Forecasts (%)
2.6 2016 GDP Outturns
Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
y-o-y 3.0% 2.6% 1.8% 1.9%
q-o-q 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4%
2.5
2.1 1.2
2.7 3.5
2.4
Central Bank Inflation Target Monthly Inflation Forecasts

2.0% (with a band of +/-1%) (Consumer prices, not seasonally adjusted)
% change on CPI inflation % Change on Same Month in Previous Year
% change on same month in 7.5
previous month1 previous year
6.5 ----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation
2016 Sep -0.2 0.5 Actual and Consensus
Oct 0.3 0.8 ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
5.5
Nov 0.3 1.5
Dec 0.3 2.0 Consensus
4.5 Forecasts
2017 Jan 0.8 2.2 Consumer price
% inflation
Feb 0.4 2.5
3.5 (y-o-y)
Mar -0.1 2.5
Apr 0.3 2.3
2.5
May 0.0 2.5
Jun 0.1 2.5
1.5
Jul 0.3 2.4
Aug -0.1 2.5
0.5
Consensus forecasts shown in bold italics
1
-0.5
Monthly m-o-m projections (in bold italic) are implied changes
derived from monthly y-o-y consensus forecasts. Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HUNGARY MARCH 2017

% change
Gross Household Gross Industrial Consumer Gross Money General Gov.
Domestic Consumption Fixed Production Prices Nominal Supply Budget
Product Investment Monthly (M3) Balance,
Earnings ESA 10
(% of GDP)
OTP Bank 3.9 3.1 4.9 4.8 13.7 2.8 na na 2.9 3.2 na na na na -1.2 -2.0
Citigroup 3.6 3.1 4.8 3.9 5.5 5.0 na na 2.9 3.4 9.0 7.5 na na -2.4 -2.2
Takarek Bank 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.3 13.0 5.0 3.7 7.0 2.4 3.0 10.0 8.0 na na -1.7 -2.4
Capital Economics 3.5 2.3 5.8 3.5 3.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 3.0 3.5 na na na na -2.8 -2.5
ING Financial Markets 3.5 3.6 5.1 4.1 9.6 8.9 1.8 8.1 2.7 2.7 7.5 6.7 4.4 4.1 -2.3 -1.8
Kopint-Tarki 3.5 3.2 4.5 4.2 10.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 10.0 7.0 5.6 5.6 -2.4 -2.4
MKB Bank 3.5 3.7 6.0 7.0 8.5 10.0 3.5 7.0 2.3 2.5 na na na na -2.7 -2.6
UBS 3.5 3.0 5.0 4.0 12.0 6.0 3.0 4.0 2.9 3.0 na na 8.0 8.0 -2.5 -2.5
Concorde Securities 3.4 3.1 4.5 3.5 10.0 7.0 4.0 4.5 2.2 2.5 8.0 6.0 na na -2.3 -2.3
Erste Bank 3.4 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.7 4.0 4.1 3.0 2.5 3.4 10.0 8.0 na na -2.7 -2.5
Vienna Institute - WIIW 3.3 3.4 4.5 4.0 5.0 9.0 6.0 7.0 2.0 2.5 na na na na -2.9 -2.9
HSBC 3.3 2.9 4.3 3.4 6.0 5.1 4.0 4.5 2.5 2.7 9.6 6.0 5.0 5.0 -2.4 -2.0
Experian 3.2 3.1 4.2 3.7 6.0 4.9 na na 2.4 3.1 na na na na -2.3 -2.4
GKI Econ Research 3.2 3.5 5.0 4.0 8.0 15.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 2.8 9.0 7.0 na na -2.5 -2.8
Raiffeisen Research 3.2 3.4 4.0 3.8 6.4 7.0 3.0 4.5 3.3 3.0 na na na na -2.5 -3.0
IHS Economics 3.0 3.3 3.9 3.6 1.5 2.4 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.3 6.9 5.3 4.8 5.3 -2.5 -2.8
CIB Budapest 2.7 2.2 4.2 3.1 4.8 3.2 4.2 5.2 2.7 2.5 6.3 4.3 na na -2.4 -2.4
Euromonitor Intl 2.6 2.4 3.2 2.8 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.6 2.1 2.1 4.6 4.3 na na -0.2 -0.1
BNP Paribas 2.3 2.2 3.3 2.5 3.7 4.0 na na 3.2 3.2 7.5 6.4 na na -2.2 -2.3
Moody's Analytics 2.3 2.5 4.2 3.9 2.5 2.5 4.0 5.1 2.5 2.2 6.7 5.3 6.4 6.9 na na
Consensus (Mean) 3.1 3.0 4.4 3.8 6.7 5.7 3.5 4.9 2.6 2.8 8.3 6.3 6.7 6.6 -2.3 -2.3
Last Month's Mean 3.0 2.9 4.2 3.7 6.1 5.1 3.4 4.7 2.4 2.7 8.8 6.9 5.8 5.9 -2.3 -2.3
3 Months Ago 2.8 2.9 3.8 5.2 3.9 2.0 2.7 7.3 5.8 -2.2
High 3.9 4.0 6.0 7.0 13.7 15.0 6.0 8.1 3.3 3.5 10.8 8.0 10.6 9.6 -0.2 -0.1
Low 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.5 1.5 2.4 1.8 2.6 2.0 2.1 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.1 -2.9 -3.0
Central Bank of
Hungary (Dec. '16) 3.6 3.7 5.0 4.0 11.2 7.4 2.4 3.0 9.0 7.0 -2.0 -2.1
EBRD (Nov. '16) 2.4
EC (Feb. '17) 3.5 3.2 4.8 3.9 10.0 5.0 -2.4 -2.5
IMF (Oct. '16) 2.5 2.4 1.9 2.6 -2.7 -2.5
OECD (Nov. '16) 2.5 2.2 3.8 3.7 5.9 6.3 1.4 2.5 -2.0 -2.0
President - Mr. Janos Ader. Prime Minister - Mr. Viktor Orban (Fidesz
Gross Domestic Product* 2.1 4.0 3.1 2.0
Party). Government - The ruling Fidesz Party won 133 of the 199 seats
available at elections held in April 2014. Next Elections - May 2017 Household Consumption* 0.5 2.1 3.1 4.2
(presidential); by April 2018 (parliamentary). Nominal GDP - US$120.8bn Gross Fixed Investment* 9.8 9.9 1.9 -15.5
(2015). Population - 9.9 million (mid-year, 2015). Forint/US$ Ex- Industrial Production* 1.1 7.7 7.4 0.9
change Rate - 279.0 (ave. 2015); Forint/ - 309.4 (ave. 2015).
Consumer Prices* 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.4
Gross Nom Mthly Earnings* 3.4 3.0 4.3 6.1
% Economic Growth & Inflation Money Supply (M3), end year* 5.5 5.1 6.3 5.2
10.0 * average % change on previous year
8.0 Consumer Price Inflation Consensus General Government Budget -2.6 -2.1 -1.6 -1.7 e
6.0 Forecasts Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
4.0 Merchandise Exports, fob 93.3 98.8 88.3 91.6
2.0 Merchandise Imports, fob 88.9 95.7 83.4 85.8
Trade Balance, fob-fob 4.4 3.2 4.8 5.8
0.0
Current Account Balance 5.2 2.9 4.1 7.1
-2.0
3 Month Treasury Bill Rate, 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.2
-4.0 % (end yr)
-6.0 GDP Growth
10 Year Government Bond 5.5 3.8 3.4 3.3
-8.0 Yield, % (end year) US$ billions

MARCH 2017 HUNGARY
Growth Rising to 3.1% in 2017

Annual Total Rates on Survey Date
0.0% 3.7% 2016 GDP grew by only 2.0%, the weakest rate since
Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current 3 Month 10 Year 2012. Gross fixed investment fell 15.5% and its perform-
dise dise dise Account Treasury Govern- ance in 2017 will partly hinge on how well the government
Exports Imports Trade Balance Bill ment can utilise EU development funds. In contrast, household
(fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn) Rate (%) Bond
US$bn) US$bn) (fob-fob, Yield (%) consumption surged 4.2% on wage increases and mild
US$bn) inflation. Average gross earnings jumped 6.1% in 2016
and may accelerate due to announced hikes in the
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 End Jun End Mar End Jun End Mar
2017 2018 2017 2018 minimum wage: this year's 15% increase is to be followed
na na na na na na 4.4 2.7 0.1 0.1 3.5 3.6 by an 8% rise next year. Still, firms have struggled to fill
89.9 95.0 86.6 93.1 3.4 1.8 4.1 2.1 na na na na
93.1 95.5 88.8 91.4 4.3 4.1 5.9 5.8 0.1 0.5 3.6 3.6
vacancies as skilled workers ply their trade abroad in
108.0 113.4 96.5 101.3 11.6 12.1 3.5 1.5 na na na na higher paying EU countries. The government hopes that
na na na na na na na na 0.2 0.6 3.6 3.8 by narrowing the wage differential and cutting corporate
88.3 101.4 83.3 96.6 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.8 0.2 0.2 3.5 3.5 tax the incentive to remain in the country will improve and
na na na na na na na na na na 3.6 na
97.6 105.1 91.6 99.6 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.1 na na na na send economic growth towards its long-term 3-5% target.
na na na na na na 4.1 4.1 0.1 0.4 4.0 4.0 Inflation climbed to 2.9% (y-o-y) in February as fuel costs
104.7 106.2 94.8 96.6 9.9 9.5 4.6 4.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.7 soared, but should cool as the year progresses.
97.1 103.6 92.4 100.0 4.7 3.6 4.4 3.5 na na na na
91.3 98.3 87.3 94.7 4.0 3.6 4.5 3.9 na na 3.4 3.9
97.0 104.3 88.2 99.1 8.8 5.2 7.8 7.2 0.2 0.4 3.5 3.6 The three major credit agencies (Fitch Ratings, Moody's
104.4 108.3 95.0 100.0 9.4 8.3 5.0 4.3 0.6 1.0 3.4 3.6 and Standard and Poor's) elevated Hungary to invest-
95.2 106.2 87.6 98.7 7.6 7.5 6.8 6.5 na na na na
100.1 106.7 90.3 97.1 9.8 9.6 3.9 3.9 na na 3.8 4.4 ment grade status last year. Despite lingering political
90.8 88.4 85.3 83.5 5.5 4.9 4.6 3.9 na na na na concerns, more stable government policy-making and
98.9 101.7 93.3 97.9 5.5 3.8 4.4 2.3 na na na na improved public finances have encouraged capital in-
89.3 92.9 84.5 88.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.9 na na na na
105.2 108.7 96.3 100.8 8.9 7.9 4.6 4.0 na na 3.2 3.5
flows and bolstered business conditions.
na na na na na na 4.1 4.1 na na 3.1 3.1 GDP Growth A Rebound in Confidence
99.6 107.6 91.7 99.1 7.9 8.5 2.7 2.6 na na na na % Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
na na na na na na 4.9 4.8 na na 3.2 3.2 2016 2017
92.3 98.6 88.4 95.4 3.9 3.2 4.1 3.8 0.2 0.2 3.5 3.7 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
3.2
96.8 102.3 90.1 96.3 6.7 6.0 4.7 4.1 0.2 0.4 3.5 3.7
2016 GDP Outturns
97.4 103.5 90.3 96.7 7.2 6.7 4.8 4.3 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
99.3 93.1 6.2 5.5 y-o-y 1.1% 2.8% 2.2% 1.6%
3.0
108.0 113.4 96.5 101.3 11.6 12.1 7.8 7.2 0.6 1.0 4.0 4.4 q-o-q -0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4%
88.3 88.4 83.3 83.5 3.4 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1
6.0 6.4 4.1 4.7 2.5 2.8 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
2.8 2018 GDP
Growth
Forecasts
2.6 (%)
2017 GDP
5.4 5.0 Growth
8.5 7.6 Forecasts (%)
2.4

3% (medium term goal) (Consumer prices, not seasonally adjusted)
CPI inflation - % Change on Same Month in Previous Year
% change on 8.0
% change on same month in
previous month1 previous year 7.0
2016 Sep 0.2 0.6 6.0
Oct 0.6 1.0 Consensus
5.0 Forecasts
Nov 0.1 1.1
Dec 0.4 1.8 Consumer price
4.0
2017 Jan 0.4 2.3 % inflation
Feb 0.4 2.9 3.0 (y-o-y)
Mar 0.2 3.0
Apr 0.3 2.5 2.0
May 0.3 2.5 1.0
Jun 0.0 2.3
Jul -0.1 2.5 0.0
Aug -0.2 2.7 ----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation
-1.0 Actual and Consensus
Consensus forecasts shown in bold italics ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
-2.0
1
Monthly m-o-m projections (in bold italic) are implied changes Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
derived from monthly y-o-y consensus forecasts. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
POLAND MARCH 2017
End Year, Annual Total

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year
% change
Gross Private Gross Industrial Consumer Nominal Money General Govt
Domestic Consumption Fixed Production Prices Gross Mthly Supply Budget
Product Investment Wages (M3) Balance,
& Salaries ESA 10
(Corporate (% of GDP)
Sector)
KUKE 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.9 6.3 4.8 7.2 2.1 1.6 4.2 4.9 9.8 10.4 na na
ING Bank Slaski 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.4 2.5 7.6 4.6 4.2 2.3 2.7 5.6 6.5 7.7 8.7 -2.9 -3.0
UBS 3.5 3.3 3.5 2.8 5.3 4.1 3.0 3.5 2.4 2.3 na na 9.0 9.0 -2.8 -2.6
Raiffeisen Research 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.0 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.5 1.9 2.2 5.0 3.5 na na -3.0 -3.2
Credit Agricole 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 5.3 10.0 6.0 6.0 1.8 1.5 4.5 4.8 8.0 8.0 -2.9 -2.9
Erste Bank 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 4.3 6.2 4.1 4.7 1.8 1.9 4.5 4.8 na na -3.0 -2.9
Societe Generale 3.3 3.7 3.2 3.3 2.6 3.0 4.5 5.0 2.1 2.3 4.9 4.5 8.0 7.5 -2.9 -3.0
Euromonitor Intl 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.1 4.5 5.0 4.4 1.6 2.0 na na na na -2.4 -2.5
BNP Paribas 3.2 2.6 3.8 2.4 3.4 4.5 4.0 4.2 2.6 2.4 5.9 5.4 na na -2.9 -3.5
Kopint-Tarki 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.7 3.5 4.0 3.4 3.4 1.5 1.9 na na na na -2.9 -2.9
PKO Bank Polski 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.5 4.7 6.0 5.2 na 2.2 2.1 5.7 5.1 9.5 na -2.8 -2.5
Citigroup 3.2 2.8 3.8 2.8 2.4 4.0 na na 2.0 2.3 6.3 6.5 na na -2.9 -3.4
Moody's Analytics 3.1 3.0 3.9 3.2 3.5 7.3 2.7 3.0 1.6 1.7 6.0 5.5 6.5 5.5 na na
IHS Economics 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.1 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.2 2.2 2.3 5.3 5.6 7.2 6.8 -3.4 -3.1
Bank Pekao 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.0 -0.8 8.2 4.7 7.0 2.6 2.2 5.2 5.5 7.5 7.0 -2.8 -2.8
Gdansk Institute 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 7.1 3.9 4.2 1.6 2.2 4.5 4.6 8.2 8.0 -3.2 -3.0
IWH - Halle Institute 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.3 4.6 1.8 1.9 na na na na na na
Bank Zachodni 2.9 3.1 4.1 3.0 2.0 6.8 5.0 6.0 2.1 2.0 4.5 6.0 9.0 6.8 -3.2 -3.0
CASE 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.7 1.2 2.0 4.1 3.5 8.0 8.2 -3.2 -2.9
HSBC 2.9 3.2 4.1 3.4 0.5 5.0 3.6 5.3 1.9 1.6 5.0 5.3 8.3 7.3 -3.2 -3.3
Vienna Institute - WIIW 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 1.0 3.5 3.6 4.5 1.4 1.9 5.4 5.4 10.0 10.0 -3.5 -3.5
Consensus (Mean) 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.1 3.1 5.1 4.1 4.6 1.9 2.0 5.0 5.1 8.6 8.0 -3.0 -3.0
Last Month's Mean 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.2 5.1 3.9 4.5 1.7 2.0 5.0 5.1 8.3 8.0 -3.0 -3.0
3 Months Ago 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.0 1.4 1.9 4.9 8.2 -3.0
High 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.5 5.8 10.0 6.0 7.2 2.6 2.7 6.3 6.5 12.3 10.9 -2.4 -2.5
Low 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.4 -0.8 2.7 2.4 3.0 1.2 1.5 3.6 3.5 6.5 5.5 -3.5 -3.5
EBRD (Nov. '16) 3.2
EC (Feb. '17) 3.2 3.1 3.9 2.9 2.7 5.3 -2.9 -3.0
IMF (Oct. '16) 3.4 3.3 1.1 1.9 -2.9 -2.9
OECD (Nov. '16) 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.3 2.5 4.2 1.1 1.7
World Bank (Oct. '16) 3.4 3.6 2.6 4.7 1.3 -2.9
President - Mr. Andrzej Duda Prime Minister - Ms. Beata Szydlo Gross Domestic Product* 1.4 3.3 3.9 2.8
Government 2015 election won by Conservative Law and Justice Private Consumption* 0.3 2.6 3.2 3.6
(PiS) party with an absolute majority (235 out of the 460 seats). Next
Gross Fixed Investment* -1.1 10.0 6.1 -5.5
Elections - 2019 (parliamentary); 2020 (presidential). Nominal GDP
- US$475.6bn (2015) Population - 38.6 million (mid-year, 2015). Zloty/ Industrial Production* 1.8 4.1 6.0 3.2 e
US$ - 3.764 (ave. 2015); Zloty/ - 4.175 (ave. 2015). Consumer Prices* 0.9 0.0 -0.9 -0.6
Nominal Wages & Salaries* 2.9 3.7 3.5 3.8
% Economic Growth & Inflation Money Supply (M3) end year* 6.2 8.2 9.1 9.6
Consensus
Forecasts General Government Budget -4.1 -3.4 -2.6 -2.7 e
6.0 GDP Growth Consumer Price Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Inflation Merchandise Exports, fob 198.1 210.6 191.0 195.4
Trade Balance, fob-fob -0.5 -4.3 2.5 1.8
2.0 Current Account Balance -6.7 -11.4 -2.9 -2.5
3 Month Interbank Deposit 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.8
0.0 Rate, %, end year
10 Yr Government Bond, 4.4 2.4 3.0 3.5
-2.0 Yield, %, end year US$ billions

MARCH 2017 POLAND
Rates on Survey Date Q4 2016 Growth Confirmed at 2.7% (y-o-y)

Annual Total
1.7% 3.7% The final estimate of Q4 GDP was consistent with the
Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current 3 month 10 Year initial release and confirmed that the Polish economy
dise dise dise Account Interbank Govern- had advanced by 2.7% (y-o-y). The pick up largely
Exports Imports Trade Balance Deposit ment reflected private consumption and domestic demand will
(fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn) Rate (%) Bond
continue to act as a key driver of output this year as the
US$bn) US$bn) (fob-fob, Yield (%)
US$bn) government seeks to implement the Morawiecki devel-
End Jun End Mar End Jun End Mar opment plan, which will target strategic sectors and
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
raise Research & Development investment between
201.6 220.2 201.0 220.2 0.6 0.0 -2.7 -3.7 1.7 2.0 3.9 4.0 now and 2020. Efforts will also be focused on social and
208.3 234.2 207.3 234.5 1.0 -0.2 -4.8 -5.0 1.7 2.0 4.1 4.4 regional improvements, with a target to bring GDP per
207.9 222.4 202.6 216.8 5.3 5.6 -7.3 -10.3 na na na na
197.0 223.4 196.4 223.8 0.6 -0.4 -5.7 -7.1 na na na na capita incomes in the nation to around 80% of the EU
188.7 199.7 189.9 203.7 -1.2 -4.0 -3.6 -5.3 1.7 1.7 3.9 4.4 average. Prime Minister Beata Szydlo has pointed to
196.1 200.1 194.2 198.3 1.9 1.8 -4.2 -4.5 1.7 1.7 3.9 4.0 declining unemployment levels and rising wages as
203.6 215.7 203.4 219.3 0.2 -3.6 -2.8 -3.7 1.7 2.0 3.7 4.1
na na na na na na -2.0 -3.0 1.8 1.8 3.9 4.0 successes of the her governing PiS party, with the
na na na na na na na na na na 3.2 2.8 jobless rate near 25-year lows.
207.1 232.3 206.6 233.5 0.5 -1.2 -5.8 -7.6 na na na na
201.5 202.5 206.0 208.5 -4.5 -6.0 -5.9 -7.8 na na na na
217.1 220.0 219.2 222.0 -2.1 -2.0 -1.0 -1.2 na na na na
Inflation has risen sharply in recent months (bottom
191.2 201.5 190.9 201.2 0.3 0.3 -3.2 -3.3 na na na na box), following the end of Polands record-breaking
197.3 205.8 197.5 206.8 -0.2 -1.0 -5.5 -6.5 na na na na deflationary streak last November. The reading for
183.4 205.4 186.5 211.1 -3.0 -5.7 -7.2 -9.4 na na na na
203.3 210.0 198.6 205.0 4.7 5.0 -0.1 -0.2 1.5 1.5 3.8 3.8
February was 2.2% (y-o-y), reflecting a sharp increase
na na na na na na -9.3 -14.2 na na na na in food and transport prices. The consensus is predict-
193.4 205.5 195.7 209.5 -2.3 -4.0 -6.2 -6.9 1.7 1.8 3.8 4.1 ing that inflation will average 1.9% in 2017 and 2.0% in
201.0 220.6 201.5 225.7 -0.5 -5.2 -0.5 -6.0 1.8 2.1 3.8 4.2 2018, below the central bank's 2.5% target.
210.0 217.5 210.0 220.0 0.0 -2.5 -5.5 -6.5 1.7 1.8 3.7 3.8
201.3 218.7 201.4 220.5 -0.1 -1.8 -6.1 -7.8 na na na na GDP Growth Forecasts Edge Up
203.4 230.8 205.2 234.9 -1.8 -4.1 -2.5 -4.2 1.7 1.8 3.9 4.0 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of: 2017
2016
201.6 211.3 201.8 213.1 -0.2 -1.8 -4.7 -5.9 na na na na
% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
207.9 218.2 207.1 218.5 0.7 -0.3 -5.6 -6.8 1.7 1.7 3.6 3.4
200.9 212.0 202.0 216.0 -1.1 -4.0 -3.3 -4.4 1.8 1.9 3.9 4.0 3.6
201.1 214.9 201.1 216.5 -0.1 -1.6 -4.4 -5.9 1.7 1.8 3.8 3.9
3.5
199.7 215.4 199.5 216.5 0.2 -1.1 -5.0 -6.8
202.5 202.5 -0.1 -4.5 3.4 2018 GDP
217.1 234.2 219.2 234.9 5.3 5.6 -0.1 -0.2 1.8 2.1 4.1 4.4 Growth
183.4 199.7 186.5 198.3 -4.5 -6.0 -9.3 -14.2 1.5 1.5 3.2 2.8 2017 GDP Growth Forecasts
3.3 (%)
7.6 10.4 7.3 10.4 2.2 3.1 2.3 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 Forecasts (%)
3.2
2016 GDP Outturns
3.1 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
-4.8 -8.3 (y-o-y) 3.0% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7%
-2.2 -2.3 (q-o-q) 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 1.7%
220.2 214.9 5.3 -3.7 3.0

2.5% (with a band of +/-1%) (Consumer prices, not seasonally adjusted)
% change on CPI inflation - % Change on Same Month in Previous Year

previous month1 previous year 5.0
Consensus
2016 Sep 0.0 -0.5 Forecasts
4.0
Oct 0.5 -0.2
Nov 0.1 0.0
3.0 Consumer price
Dec 0.7 0.8
2017 Jan 0.4 1.7 inflation
% 2.0 (y-o-y)
Feb 0.3 2.2
Mar 0.3 2.2
1.0
Apr 0.5 2.3
May 0.5 2.4
0.0
Jun 0.2 2.3
----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation
Jul -0.3 2.2 Actual and Consensus
-1.0
Aug 0.4 2.3 ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
Consensus forecasts shown in bold italics -2.0
1
Monthly m-o-m projections (in bold italic) are implied changes Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
derived from monthly y-o-y consensus forecasts. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

RUSSIA MARCH 2017
Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year % Change Annual Avg End Year, Annual Total
Dec-on-Dec % change % Change
Gross Household Gross Industrial Consumer Real Money Federal Govt
Domestic Consump- Fixed Invest- Production Prices Average Supply Budget Bal,
Product tion ment Monthly (M2) IMF defn,
Wages excluding
Due privatisation
(% of GDP)
Citigroup 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.0 6.5 na na 4.0 4.0 na na na na -3.2 -2.2
Renaissance Capital 1.7 na 1.4 na 2.3 na 1.9 na 5.1 na na na na na -1.0 na
Vienna Institute - WIIW 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 na na -3.0 -3.0
Allianz 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1.5 2.0 4.9 5.5 2.6 3.0 na na -2.7 -2.5
Timetric 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.5 1.5 1.7 4.8 4.0 na na 9.0 8.8 -2.5 -2.0
UBS 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 1.5 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.9 4.0 na na 10.2 18.1 -1.1 -0.9
FERI 1.3 2.1 1.5 2.2 2.8 2.3 1.3 2.0 4.5 4.6 0.8 2.7 9.7 10.2 -3.5 -3.1
IWH - Halle Institute 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.9 1.0 1.9 1.3 1.5 5.5 5.3 na na na na na na
JP Morgan 1.2 1.6 0.5 1.3 3.0 4.5 1.5 1.5 4.2 4.3 na na 10.0 8.5 -1.7 -1.4
BNP Paribas 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.7 4.0 2.7 4.1 4.6 na na na na -3.1 -2.8
Euromonitor Intl 1.0 1.3 0.9 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.8 4.7 4.8 na na na na na na
IHS Economics 1.0 1.7 1.5 2.4 -0.2 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.5 -1.2 4.5 13.9 24.0 -3.2 -3.0
Raiffeisen Research 1.0 1.5 2.5 4.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 4.5 4.5 na na na na -2.6 -2.4
Econ Intelligence Unit 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 na na na na na na -2.9 -2.5
UniCredit 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 4.5 4.0 na na 16.0 18.0 -3.6 -3.1
Gazprombank 0.6 1.3 0.7 1.4 5.5 6.2 2.4 3.2 3.7 4.0 0.9 2.5 8.0 9.0 -1.3 0.8
ACRA 0.5 0.6 na na na na 0.7 1.0 5.1 4.5 1.2 1.0 na na -3.1 -2.2
Moody's Analytics 0.1 1.8 0.7 1.6 -1.5 0.7 2.1 1.8 2.9 3.9 4.7 5.9 4.6 3.4 na na
Consensus (Mean) 1.2 1.6 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.1 4.4 4.3 2.3 3.8 9.3 11.6 -2.6 -2.1
Last Month's Mean 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.1 2.7 1.8 2.1 4.5 4.4 2.2 3.6 10.1 14.4 -2.7 -2.2
3 Months Ago 1.1 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.6 4.9 4.9 1.9 11.1 -2.8
High 2.0 2.3 2.5 4.0 5.5 6.5 4.0 3.5 5.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 16.0 24.0 -1.0 0.8
Low 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.1 -1.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.9 3.5 -1.2 1.0 2.3 3.4 -3.6 -3.1
EBRD (Nov. '16) 1.2
EC (Feb. '17) 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.2
IMF (Jan. '17) 1.1 1.2
OECD (Nov. '16) 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.5 5.9 5.0 -3.0
e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
President - Mr. Vladimir Putin. Prime Minister - Mr. Dmitry Medvedev Gross Domestic Product* 1.3 0.7 -2.8 -0.4 e
Government - The United Russia party maintained a majority in the Duma
(parliament) in the September 2016 elections. Next Elections - March 2018 Household Consumption* 4.4 2.0 -9.8 -4.0 e
(presidential); 2021 (parliamentary). Nominal GDP - US$1370bn (2015). Gross Fixed Investment* 0.9 -1.0 -9.4 -2.6 e
Population - 143.5 million (mid-year, 2015). Rouble/US$ Exchange Industrial Production* 0.4 1.7 -3.4 1.1
Rate - 60.24 (ave. 2015). Rouble/ - 66.81 (ave. 2015). Consumer Prices (Dec/Dec) 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4
% Real Av. Mthly Wages Due* 5.3 1.5 -9.2 0.7
16.0
Economic Growth & Inflation Money Supply (M2). end yr* 14.7 1.5 11.3 9.2
Consensus * average % change on previous year
12.0 Consumer Price Forecasts Federal Gov. Budget Balance -1.2 -1.1 -3.4 -3.6 e
Inflation IMF. excluding privatisation
8.0 proceeds. % of GDP
Merchandise Exports. fob 523 498 341 279
4.0 Merchandise Imports. fob 341 308 193 191
Trade Balance. fob-fob 182 190 149 88
0.0
Current Account Balance 34.8 58.4 69.0 22.2
GDP Foreign Currency Reserves
-4.0 Growth
ex. Gold & SDRs. end year 470 339 320 332 e
-8.0 Central Bank Policy Rate, % 5.5 17.0 11.0 10.0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 end period US$ billions
MARCH 2017 RUSSIA
Annual Total End Year Rate on Survey Only 1.2% Growth Expected in 2017
Date: 10.0%
Minister for Economic Development Maksim Oreshkin
Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current Foreign Central stated at the end of last month that he expects GDP growth
dise dise dise Account Currency Bank in Russia to total around 2.0% in 2017, citing robust data
Exports Imports Trade Balance Reserves Policy
(fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn) (IMF, Rate (%) pertaining to freight revenues and electricity consumption
US$bn) US$bn) (fob-fob, US$bn) at the beginning of this year as reasons for optimism.
US$bn) Although the country continues to be constrained by West-
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
End Jun End Mar ern sanctions and long-term demographic issues which are
leading to a rapidly shrinking labour force, the economic
313 321 201 209 113 113 31.8 29.6 339 358 na na outlook has been boosted by a revival in oil prices from
327 na 197 na 130 na 26.0 na 378 na na na early 2016 lows. In addition to this, a large-scale statistical
302 329 211 232 91 97 23.5 17.9 na na 9.0 8.0 overhaul by the Bank of Russia indicates that the economy
330 357 201 223 128 134 45.5 54.1 na na na na
317 342 212 228 105 114 31.0 35.0 340 360 9.5 8.3
exited recession in Q2 2016, with some sources even
290 299 197 203 93 96 32.5 34.4 na na na na suggesting that output increased in each of the four quar-
303 338 202 229 101 109 48.5 43.0 337 357 na na ters of last year (seasonally-adjusted basis) as a result of
349 412 232 283 117 129 46.1 46.0 318 318 na na a reclassification of military expenditure.
302 341 208 241 94 100 48.0 53.0 354 355 9.0 7.5
310 317 197 205 113 112 59.2 57.7 326 331 na na Inflation continued to trend downwards and stood at just
318 328 188 191 130 137 61.6 64.6 na na na na
4.6% (y-o-y) in February (bottom box), the lowest reading
330 330 210 223 121 107 41.9 22.5 364 384 na na
300 322 199 208 101 114 37.6 34.1 na na na na
in almost five years. Despite calls for a policy rate cut from
325 355 214 241 111 113 41.3 41.0 340 340 na na the current 10% level, most observers expect the central
385 370 200 215 185 155 60.9 53.6 365 375 10.0 6.8 bank to retain a cautious stance. The consensus antici-
348 364 213 230 135 134 74.0 88.0 335 360 9.5 8.8 pates that the policy rate will drop to 9.4% by end-June and
324 322 202 210 121 112 45.7 26.9 325 333 na na to 8.0% by end-March 2018.
315 330 200 225 115 105 40.0 40.0 320 300 na na Uncertainty Surrounds 2017 Growth Outlook
330 382 228 262 102 120 29.5 36.5 341 344 9.5 8.5 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of: 2017
% 2016
305 316 207 207 98 109 29.0 32.0 350 350 na na
na na na na na na 78.7 87.8 na na na na
1.8
321 341 206 224 115 116 44.4 44.9 342 347 9.4 8.0
Recent GDP Outturns
1.6 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3
318 337 206 224 112 113 42.1 41.8 340 344
317 203 114 43.2 341 (y-o-y) -3.8% -1.2% -0.6% -0.4%
2018 GDP
385 412 232 283 185 155 78.7 88.0 378 384 10.0 8.8 1.4 Growth
290 299 188 191 91 96 23.5 17.9 318 300 9.0 6.8 Forecasts (%)
21.6 27.0 10.6 21.8 21.0 15.2 15.3 19.0 17.4 22.1 0.4 0.7
1.2
2017 GDP Growth

1.0 Forecasts (%)
57.3 77.6
0.8
Consensus forecasts Monthly Inflation Forecasts

shown in bold italics (Consumer prices, not seasonally adjusted)
% change on
previous month previous year1 CPI inflation - % Change on Previous Month
4.0
Consensus
2016 Sep 0.2 6.4 3.5 ----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation
Forecasts
Oct 0.4 6.1 Actual and Consensus
Nov 0.4 5.8 3.0 ----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
Dec 0.4 5.4 2.5
2017 Jan 0.6 5.0
Feb 0.2 4.6 2.0
Mar 0.4 4.7 1.5
Apr 0.3 4.6
1.0
May 0.3 4.5
Jun 0.3 4.4 0.5
Jul 0.4 4.5
0.0
Aug 0.1 4.0
Consumer price inflation
-0.5
2017 Dec 4.4 (m-o-m)
2018 Dec 4.3 -1.0
1
Monthly y-o-y projections (in bold italic) are implied changes Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
derived from monthly m-o-m consensus forecasts. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TURKEY MARCH 2017

% Change
Gross Private Gross Fixed Industrial Consumer Producer Money Consol Pub
Domestic Consump- Investment Production Prices Prices Supply Sector
Product tion (M2) Budget
Balance, incl
privatisation
(% of GDP)
Istanbul Bilgi Univ 3.5 4.1 3.3 3.9 2.5 6.0 4.1 5.2 10.1 7.3 13.0 7.0 15.0 13.0 -2.3 -1.9
UBS 3.0 3.1 4.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 2.5 3.0 9.9 7.1 na na 12.0 12.0 -1.3 -1.3
Odeabank 2.9 4.2 3.2 4.6 1.0 5.0 3.0 4.5 8.9 7.5 10.0 5.3 na na na na
IS Investment 2.6 3.5 2.0 3.0 0.9 2.0 2.5 3.0 10.0 8.5 na na na na -1.9 -2.2
TEB 2.5 3.7 2.0 3.3 4.0 4.4 na na 9.8 8.1 na na na na -3.0 -1.9
Citigroup 2.5 3.0 0.8 3.1 -1.3 2.6 na na 10.3 7.9 na na na na -2.9 -2.7
Euromonitor Intl 2.4 3.0 2.8 3.3 1.5 2.8 2.8 3.3 9.5 7.3 na na na na na na
IHS Economics 2.4 3.1 2.1 2.8 -0.7 2.5 2.5 3.2 11.2 8.6 14.5 7.5 14.8 10.4 -2.4 -2.3
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.4 2.6 0.8 1.6 1.5 2.0 4.0 3.0 9.2 7.8 na na 14.8 15.8 -2.2 -2.4
HSBC Istanbul 2.3 2.5 2.3 3.3 -1.8 0.0 2.5 2.5 10.2 8.1 12.0 9.5 15.0 14.0 -2.5 -2.2
JP Morgan 1.8 3.2 2.0 3.5 1.5 3.8 -2.0 2.2 9.5 7.3 9.3 6.9 na na -1.8 -1.4
FERI -1.9 -0.7 -2.8 -0.8 -5.1 -0.8 1.1 1.6 9.8 8.8 10.9 9.9 4.9 7.4 -2.1 -2.2
Consensus (Mean) 2.2 3.0 1.9 3.0 0.7 3.0 2.2 3.1 9.8 7.9 11.3 7.8 12.6 11.9 -2.3 -2.1
Last Month's Mean 2.2 3.1 2.0 3.0 0.7 2.9 2.2 3.2 9.4 7.9 11.1 7.7 13.3 12.3 -2.2 -2.0
3 Months Ago 2.8 3.3 2.7 1.3 2.8 8.2 7.3 7.7 11.6 -2.2
High 3.5 4.2 4.0 4.6 4.0 6.0 4.1 5.2 11.2 8.8 14.5 9.9 15.0 15.8 -1.3 -1.3
Low -1.9 -0.7 -2.8 -0.8 -5.1 -0.8 -2.0 1.6 8.9 7.1 9.3 5.3 4.9 7.4 -3.0 -2.8
EBRD (Nov. '16) 3.0
EC (Feb. '17) 2.8 3.2 3.5 4.0 -1.4 0.0 8.0 7.6 -2.0 -1.8
IMF (Oct. '16) 3.0 3.2 8.2 6.8 -1.6 -1.5
OECD (Nov. '16) 3.3 3.8 3.0 4.4 4.9 3.1 7.7 7.3
President - Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan (AKP). Prime Minister - Mr. Binali
Yildirim (AKP). Government - The Justice and Development Party (AK Gross Domestic Product* 8.5 5.2 6.1 2.0 e
Party) regained its majority in the November 2015 election. Next Elections Private Consumption* 7.9 3.0 5.5 0.9 e
- 2019 (presidential and parliamentary). Nominal GDP - US$722.0bn Gross Fixed Investment* 13.8 5.1 9.2 1.1 e
(2015). Population - 78.7 million (mid-year, 2015). Lira/US$ Exchange Industrial Production* 3.0 3.6 3.2 1.9
Rate - 2.706 (ave. 2015). Lira/ Exchange Rate - 3.001 (ave. 2015).
Consumer Prices* 7.5 8.9 7.7 7.8
Economic Growth & Inflation Producer Prices* 4.5 10.2 5.3 4.3
% Money Supply (M2), end yr* 22.2 11.9 17.1 18.3
12.0 Consumer Price Inflation * average % change on previous year
10.0 Consol. Gov. Budget Balance -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 e
8.0 (incl. privatisation), % of GDP
6.0 Merchandise Exports, fob 161.8 168.9 152.0 150.2
Trade Balance, fob-fob -79.9 -63.6 -48.1 -40.7
2.0
Current Account Balance -63.6 -43.6 -32.1 -32.6
0.0
Overnight Interbank Lending 7.8 11.3 10.8 8.5
-2.0 GDP Consensus Rate, % end period
-4.0 Growth Forecasts 10 Year Government Bond 10.3 7.9 10.4 11.0
-6.0 Yield, % end year US$ billions

MARCH 2017 TURKEY
Annual Total
Rates on Survey Date Referendum Politics Dampen Sentiment
9.25% 10.7% Recent GDP forecast downgrades partly reflect the con-
Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current Overnight 10 Year troversial constitutional referendum scheduled for April
dise dise dise Account Interbank Govern-
ment
16, which has fuelled internal divisions and conflict with
Exports Imports Trade Balance Interest
(fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn) Rate (%) Bond the EU. The vote could expand President Erdogan's
US$bn) US$bn) (fob-fob Yield (%) powers and enable him to be in office until 2029. The
US$bn) country remains in a state of flux following last July's
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
End Jun End Mar End Jun End Mar failed military coup, with crackdowns on the opposition
2017 2018 2017 2018
ahead of the crucial ballot. The difficult situation has
164 176 203 213 -39.0 -37.0 -28.0 -24.0 10.0 8.3 10.5 9.4 undermined the lira, which is down around 6% in the year
155 163 206 219 -51.0 -56.5 -37.5 -40.0 na na na na to date. Its weakness has raised import costs and led to
160 175 215 235 -55.0 -60.0 -37.0 -45.0 9.3 10.0 11.5 12.0 higher inflation, which rose to 10.1% (y-o-y) in February.
153 158 196 208 -43.1 -50.1 -34.1 -39.5 na na na na Aside from negative domestic issues, the US decision to
165 175 210 225 -45.0 -50.0 -35.0 -40.0 9.3 9.8 10.8 11.2 raise rates on March 15 has dampened the appetite for
144 153 198 213 -53.5 -59.4 -25.9 -25.2 11.0 11.5 11.4 12.3 high risk assets. Moody's, the credit rating agency, also
140 152 194 212 -54.0 -60.4 -30.7 -34.0 na na na na downgraded its outlook for Turkey on March 17 to "nega-
na na na na na na -29.3 -29.4 na na na na tive", citing the erosion of institutional strength and a
122 129 162 171 -40.2 -42.3 -34.8 -38.3 9.8 9.8 15.8 14.6 weaker economic outlook as reasons behind its decision.
137 142 184 191 -46.8 -49.1 -35.5 -36.1 na na na na
158 167 195 201 -37.5 -34.6 -37.7 -37.0 11.3 10.3 na na Our panel's weak 2016 GDP estimate of 2.0% (official
155 161 204 214 -48.6 -52.7 -41.0 -43.2 na na 12.0 12.0 release on March 31) highlights the economy's slump.
163 181 205 227 -42.2 -46.0 -31.7 -34.6 na na na na The unemployment rate was at 12.7% in December, a
150 162 197 208 -47.0 -45.4 -34.1 -32.6 na na na na seven year high, with job losses amplified by internal
147 151 205 211 -57.7 -59.5 -36.6 -40.6 na na na na security issues and the slide in tourist numbers.
117 122 150 157 -32.4 -35.4 -20.6 -18.6 na na na na GDP Growth Forecasts Stop Declining
2016 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:2017
149 158 195 207 -46.2 -49.2 -33.1 -34.9 10.1 9.9 12.0 11.9 % Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
3.8
148 157 195 208 -46.7 -50.4 -33.1 -35.9
3.6
152 200 -48.0 -36.4 2018 GDP
165 181 215 235 -32.4 -34.6 -20.6 -18.6 11.3 11.5 15.8 14.6 3.4 Growth
117 122 150 157 -57.7 -60.4 -41.0 -45.0 9.3 8.3 10.5 9.4 2017 GDP Forecasts (%)
3.2
Growth
14 17 18 20 7.2 9.0 5.2 7.3 0.9 1.0 1.9 1.7 Forecasts (%)
3.0
2.8
2.6 Recent GDP Outturns
Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3
2.4 y-o-y 7.4% 4.5% 4.5% -1.8%
-43.1 -45.7
2.2
-34.4 -36.6
2.0
Central Bank End-Year Inflation Targets: Monthly Inflation Forecasts

2016: 5.0% 2017: 5.0% 2018: 5.0% (Consumer prices, not seasonally adjusted)
Consensus forecasts % change on CPI inflation - % Change on Previous Month
shown in bold italics % change on same month in
previous month previous year1 ----- Consensus plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.5 Actual and Consensus
2016 Sep 0.2 7.3
----- Consensus minus 1 Standard Deviation
Oct 1.4 7.2 3.0 Consensus
Nov 0.5 7.0 Forecasts
2.5
Dec 1.6 8.5
2017 Jan 2.5 9.2 2.0
Feb 0.8 10.1 %
1.5
Mar 0.6 10.8
Apr 1.0 11.0 1.0
May 0.6 11.1 0.5
Jun 0.2 10.8
Jul 0.4 9.9 0.0
Aug 0.4 10.7 -0.5
Consumer price
-1.0 inflation
2017 Dec 8.9
(m-o-m)
2018 Dec 7.8 -1.5
1
Monthly y-o-y projections (in bold italic) are implied changes derived from Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
monthly m-o-m consensus forecasts. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
BULGARIA MARCH 2017
Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total
Gross House- Gross Industrial Consumer Gen. Gov Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current
Domestic hold Fixed Produc- Prices Budget dise dise dise Account
Product Consump- Invest- tion Balance, Exports Imports Trade Balance
tion ment ESA 10 (fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn)
(% of US$bn) US$bn) (US$bn)
GDP)
Economic Forecasters 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
UniCredit Bulbank 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.3 5.4 5.0 2.8 3.4 1.6 1.6 -1.3 -1.9 26.4 29.6 29.1 32.9 -2.7 -3.3 1.2 0.9
Raiffeisen Research 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 4.5 3.3 4.0 1.3 2.0 -1.5 -2.0 25.2 26.3 27.0 28.2 -1.8 -2.0 1.8 0.5
ING Bank 3.3 2.5 3.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.9 1.5 2.0 -1.4 -1.0 24.4 26.8 26.9 29.6 -2.5 -2.8 1.2 1.4
Capital Economics 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.5 na na 2.0 2.3 -0.8 -0.8 26.8 27.6 28.3 29.1 -1.4 -1.5 1.2 1.0
InterCapital Securities 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.6 1.4 1.9 -1.2 -1.3 26.7 27.0 29.2 30.0 -2.5 -3.0 1.2 1.1
Econ Intelligence Unit 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 1.9 2.5 na na 26.1 28.0 28.9 31.4 -2.8 -3.5 0.9 0.2
OTP Bank 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.5 2.4 3.1 na na 2.0 2.0 -1.0 -0.8 na na na na na na 1.6 0.9
Euromonitor Intl 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 2.2 1.0 1.6 -0.6 -0.2 28.4 29.8 30.4 32.1 -2.0 -2.3 1.8 1.3
GKI Econ Research 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.5 4.5 1.4 1.8 -2.0 0.0 27.5 29.0 30.6 32.0 -3.1 -3.0 1.3 0.5
United Bulgarian Bank 3.0 3.3 1.8 2.0 0.5 1.0 2.7 3.1 0.2 0.4 -3.0 -3.0 27.5 29.7 29.5 31.8 -2.0 -2.1 2.0 1.9
IHS Economics 3.0 2.5 3.3 3.0 -2.0 3.4 3.5 4.5 2.8 2.9 -0.2 -0.4 24.9 26.4 28.5 31.5 -3.6 -5.1 1.9 -0.2
Dun & Bradstreet 2.9 2.7 3.2 3.3 na na na na 0.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.5 na na na na na na 1.6 1.4
Vienna Institute - WIIW 2.9 3.1 2.0 2.5 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 0.5 1.0 -1.0 -0.5 24.1 24.2 26.1 26.2 -2.0 -2.0 1.7 1.6
Oxford Economics 2.8 2.4 1.7 2.0 3.4 4.4 5.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 -3.0 -3.1 26.4 27.3 29.6 29.9 -3.2 -2.6 0.4 0.5
Consensus (Mean) 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.3 3.2 3.4 3.5 1.4 1.8 -1.4 -1.2 26.2 27.6 28.7 30.4 -2.5 -2.8 1.4 0.9
Last Month's Mean 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.7 1.3 1.7 -1.3 -1.1 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.5 -2.8 -3.0 1.0 0.5
3 Months Ago 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.5 3.4 1.2 1.8 -1.4 26.0 29.1 -3.1 0.9
High 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.5 2.8 2.9 -0.2 0.0 28.4 29.8 30.6 32.9 -1.4 -1.5 2.0 1.9
Low 2.8 2.4 1.7 2.0 -2.0 1.0 2.7 2.1 0.2 0.4 -3.0 -3.1 24.1 24.2 26.1 26.2 -3.6 -5.1 0.4 -0.2
Standard Deviation 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.6
Bulgarian National
Bank (Feb. '17) 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.6 5.6 4.1
EBRD (Nov. '16) 2.8
EC (Feb. '17) 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.6 -0.5 -0.3
IMF (Oct. '16) 2.8 2.5 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.2
The 3.4% expansion in 2016 was not as high as that of 2015

(+3.6%), but our panel expects GDP growth to remain close (Individual forecasts Foreign Exchange Reserve Forecasts
to 3.0% this year and next. Last year's tumbling jobless rate available in our Excel End Year (IMF definition, US$ bn)
spreadsheet service.) 2017 2018
to 7.6% bolstered household consumption, while the trade
deficit narrowed on an upturn in exports to the EU. Bulgarians Consensus (Mean) 24.4 25.9
go to the polls on March 26 to vote in a snap parliamentary High 28.0 30.6
Low 22.0 21.0
election, following the resignation of ex-Prime Minister Boiko
Standard Deviation 2.1 3.4
Borisov in November 2016.
Government and Background Data
President - Mr. Rumen Radev. Prime Minister - Mr. Ognyan Gerdzhikov. Historical Data
2013 2014 2015 2016
Next Elections - March 26, 2017 (parliamentary); 2020 (presidential).
Nominal GDP - US$49.0bn (2015). Population - 7.2 million (mid-2015). Gross Domestic Product* 0.9 1.3 3.6 3.4
Lev/US$ - 1.764 (average, 2015). Lev/Euro - 1.956 (average, 2015). Household Consumption* -2.5 2.7 4.3 2.1
Gross Fixed Investment* 0.3 3.4 2.7 -4.0
Improving GDP Growth Outlook Industrial Production* -0.1 1.8 2.9 2.7
2016 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of: 2017
Consumer Prices* 0.9 -1.4 -0.1 -0.8
% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
* average % change on previous year
3.2
General Government Budget -0.4 -5.5 -1.7 -0.1 e
2016 GDP Outturns
3.1 Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
3.0 y-o-y 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% Merchandise Exports, fob 28.1 27.9 24.3 25.0
q-o-q 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% Merchandise Imports, fob 32.1 31.6 27.2 27.0
2.9 Trade Balance, fob-fob -3.9 -3.7 -3.0 -2.0
2.8 2018 GDP Current Account Balance 0.7 0.0 0.2 2.0
2017 GDP Growth Foreign Exchange Reserves 17.4 17.7 19.9 22.9
2.7 Growth Forecasts (%) excl. Gold & SDRs, end year
Forecasts (%)
2.6 US$, billions

MARCH 2017 CROATIA
Gross House- Gross Industrial Con- Gen. Gov Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current
Domestic hold Fixed Produc- sumer Budget dise dise dise Account
Product Con- Invest- tion Prices Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance
sumption ment (% of GDP, (fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn)
ESA 10) US$bn) US$bn) (US$bn)
Economic Forecasters 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 20172018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
Addiko Bank 3.5 2.9 3.3 2.7 6.5 6.8 4.7 4.1 1.6 1.8 -2.5 -2.0 13.8 14.6 22.4 23.4 -8.6 -8.8 1.4 1.1
Raiffeisen Research 3.3 2.8 3.5 2.9 5.8 6.0 4.5 4.0 1.9 1.6 -1.9 -2.0 11.7 12.4 19.0 19.8 -7.2 -7.5 1.2 1.2
Econ Institute Zagreb 3.3 2.9 3.2 2.7 5.4 7.1 4.3 3.9 1.4 1.9 -1.9 -1.7 13.3 14.1 22.1 23.9 -8.8 -9.8 1.9 1.5
Privredna Banka Zagreb 3.3 2.7 3.4 2.6 6.0 7.0 4.3 4.0 1.5 2.0 -1.6 -1.8 13.5 14.3 22.0 23.0 -8.5 -8.7 1.6 1.2
FERI 3.3 2.3 2.8 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 1.6 -2.7 -2.7 12.6 13.3 19.7 20.8 -7.1 -7.5 2.4 2.0
Erste Bank 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.5 5.8 6.0 4.2 3.5 1.5 1.9 -1.6 -1.6 12.9 13.4 21.6 22.8 -8.7 -9.4 1.2 0.8
InterCapital Securities 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 6.4 6.5 4.2 4.0 1.4 2.0 -2.0 -2.1 13.0 13.3 21.1 21.5 -8.1 -8.2 1.5 1.3
Dun & Bradstreet 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.5 3.5 5.0 na na 0.5 1.2 -2.1 -2.0 12.4 12.8 20.3 20.8 -7.9 -8.0 2.2 2.3
Kopint-Tarki 3.0 2.6 3.3 2.0 5.2 3.3 4.0 3.5 1.2 2.5 -2.5 -2.5 12.8 13.0 21.0 21.3 -8.2 -8.3 1.8 1.5
UniCredit Group 3.0 2.9 3.4 2.7 6.0 6.7 4.0 4.5 1.6 1.7 -2.1 -1.6 12.8 14.3 21.3 24.1 -8.5 -9.7 1.1 1.0
Oxford Economics 2.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.2 4.0 2.6 1.6 1.9 -2.0 -1.9 13.5 13.8 21.0 21.2 -7.5 -7.4 1.4 1.4
IHS Economics 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.1 0.8 1.5 -2.4 -2.2 13.1 13.7 21.0 21.8 -7.9 -8.1 1.9 1.8
GKI Econ Research 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.4 1.0 1.5 -2.0 -2.2 15.0 15.6 23.0 24.1 -8.0 -8.5 1.5 1.6
OTP Bank 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.0 na na 1.2 2.0 -2.3 -2.2 na na na na na na 1.4 1.5
Euromonitor Intl 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 4.7 4.6 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 -1.1 -0.9 na na na na na na 1.3 1.1
Consensus (Mean) 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.5 4.9 5.0 3.8 3.4 1.4 1.7 -2.1 -2.0 13.2 13.8 21.4 22.4 -8.2 -8.6 1.5 1.3
Last Month's Mean 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.4 4.7 4.9 3.6 3.4 1.2 1.7 -2.2 -2.0 13.1 13.8 21.1 22.2 -8.1 -8.4 1.5 1.3
3 Months Ago 2.6 2.5 2.6 4.5 3.4 1.0 1.7 -2.3 13.1 20.9 -7.8 1.5
High 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.0 6.5 7.1 4.7 4.5 2.3 2.5 -1.1 -0.9 15.0 15.6 23.0 24.3 -7.1 -7.4 2.4 2.3
Low 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.7 0.5 1.2 -2.7 -2.7 11.7 12.4 19.0 19.8 -8.8 -9.8 1.1 0.8
Croatian National
Bank (Dec. '16) 3.0 3.3 6.8 1.6
EBRD (Nov. '16) 2.0
EC (Feb. '17) 3.1 2.5 3.4 3.0 5.2 5.8 -2.1 -1.8
IMF (Oct. '16) 2.1 2.2 0.8 1.7 -2.6 -2.4 1.1 0.8
GDP growth rose by 0.6% (q-o-q) and 3.4% (y-o-y) in Q4, taking
the full year 2016 expansion to 2.9%, its strongest rate for nine Government and Background Data
years. The recovery from a deep six-year recession (from 2009 President - Mrs. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Prime Minister - Mr. Andrej
to 2014) has been supported by higher household consump- Plenkovic. Next Elections - 2020 (presidential and parliamentary). Nominal
GDP - US$48.7bn (2015). Population - 4.0 million (mid-year, 2015).
tion, fixed investment and industrial output. In addition, it has Kuna/US$ Exchange Rate - 6.856 (average, 2015).
helped the government to curb public debt levels (as a
percentage of GDP) that spiked during the financial crisis.
GDP Growth Expectations Rising Historical Data 2013 2014 2015 2016
Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:
2016 2017 Gross Domestic Product* -1.1 -0.5 1.6 2.9
%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Household Consumption* -1.9 -1.6 1.2 3.3
3.2
Gross Fixed Investment* 1.4 -2.8 1.6 4.6
3.0 Recent GDP Outturns Industrial Production* -1.7 1.4 2.5 5.0
Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
2.8 y-o-y 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.4% Consumer Prices* 2.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1
q-o-q 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 0.6% * average % change on previous year
2.6
2.4
2017 GDP Growth
Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Forecasts (%) 2018 GDP Merchandise Exports, fob 11.8 13.0 11.9 12.6 e
2.2
Growth Merchandise Imports, fob 20.6 21.6 19.4 20.4 e
2.0 Forecasts (%)
Trade Balance, fob-fob -8.7 -8.6 -7.6 -7.9 e
1.8 Current Account Balance 0.6 1.2 2.5 1.7 e
US$, billions
1.6 e = consensus estimate based on latest survey

ESTONIA MARCH 2017 MARCH 2017
Gross Private Gross Industrial Consumer Gen. Gov Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current
Domestic Con- Fixed Production Prices Budget dise dise dise Account
Product sumption Invest- Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance
ment (% of GDP, (fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn)
Oxford Economics 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.9 4.7 4.9 1.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 13.1 13.9 14.1 15.0 -1.0 -1.2 0.1 -0.1
Euromonitor Intl 2.8 2.7 4.1 3.0 4.7 4.1 4.2 2.8 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.4 na na na na na na 0.4 0.3
IHS Economics 2.5 3.1 3.7 3.1 3.2 4.0 3.6 4.9 3.0 2.5 0.2 -0.5 12.2 13.7 13.4 14.8 -1.2 -1.1 0.4 0.4
Est Inst of Econ Rsrch 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.4 4.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 -0.3 -0.4 13.0 14.0 14.5 15.5 -1.5 -1.5 0.3 0.4
SEB 2.2 3.1 3.0 4.0 3.8 4.5 na na 2.6 2.5 -0.5 -0.2 na na na na na na na na
Swedbank Estonia 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.8 5.0 4.5 na na 3.0 2.7 -0.6 -0.4 12.1 13.0 13.3 14.5 -1.2 -1.5 0.3 0.2
FERI 2.1 3.0 2.9 3.3 -1.3 3.0 1.8 2.9 2.5 2.0 0.1 0.0 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.4 -0.8 -0.7 0.4 0.3
Dun & Bradstreet 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.8 1.4 2.1 na na 2.5 2.4 -0.1 0.0 na na na na na na 0.4 0.3
Consensus (Mean) 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.9 3.5 3.7 2.5 2.5 -0.1 -0.2 12.8 13.6 14.0 14.9 -1.2 -1.3 0.3 0.2
Last Month's Mean 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.1 4.0 3.6 3.8 2.3 2.4 -0.2 -0.2 12.6 13.4 13.8 14.6 -1.2 -1.3 0.3 0.2
3 Months Ago 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.7 2.1 2.3 -0.3 12.9 14.1 -1.2 0.1
High 2.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 5.0 5.5 4.7 4.9 3.0 3.3 0.7 0.4 13.8 14.5 15.7 16.5 -0.8 -0.7 0.4 0.4
Low 2.0 2.0 2.8 3.0 -1.3 2.0 1.8 2.8 1.6 2.0 -0.6 -0.5 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.4 -1.9 -1.9 0.1 -0.1
Bank of
Estonia (Dec. '16) 2.6 3.0 2.7 3.1 4.1 3.2 2.8 2.4 -0.4 -0.4 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.8 -1.1 -1.2 0.4 0.4
EBRD (Nov. '16) 2.4
EC (Feb. '17) 2.2 2.6 3.4 2.8 4.4 4.7 -0.5 -0.2
Finance Min. (Jan. '17) 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 6.8 3.2 3.0 4.0 2.7 2.7 -0.6 -0.9 13.0 13.8 14.3 15.0 -1.3 -1.2 0.2 0.3
IMF (Oct. '16) 2.5 2.9 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2
OECD (Nov. '16) 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.2 4.1 2.3 2.6 0.2 0.2
2017 GDP growth forecasts have improved on news that GDP Government and Background Data
advanced by 2.7% (y-o-y) in Q4. The solid performance was President - Mrs. Kersti Kaljulaid. Prime Minister - Juri Ratas sworn in
attributed largely to a robust expansion in the information and on Nov. 23 2016. Next Elections - 2019 (parliamentary); 2021 (presi-
dential). Nominal GDP - US$22.7bn (2015). Population - 1.3 million
communication sector and a sharp rise in output from soft-
(mid-year, 2015). Euro/US$ Exchange Rate - 1.109 (average, 2015).
ware development services. In addition, the exports of goods
and services climbed 2.7% (y-o-y) in that quarter on improved Historical Data
demand from the major euro zone countries.
2013 2014 2015 2016
Upturn in the 2017 GDP Growth Projections Gross Domestic Product* 1.4 2.8 1.4 1.6
Private Consumption* 3.7 3.2 4.6 4.0
% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Gross Fixed Investment* -2.9 -8.1 -3.4 -2.8
3.0 Industrial Production* 4.1 3.9 0.3 2.4
2018 GDP Growth Consumer Prices* 2.8 -0.1 -0.5 0.1
2.8 2017 GDP Growth Forecasts (%) * average % change on previous year
Forecasts (%) General Government Budget -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 e
2.6 Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Merchandise Exports, fob 14.7 14.7 12.0 12.4
2016 GDP Outturns
Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Trade Balance, fob-fob -1.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0
2.2 y-o-y 1.5% 0.7% 1.3% 2.7% Current Account Balance -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6
q-o-q 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% US$, billions

MARCH 2017 LATVIA
Gross Private Gross Industrial Con- Gen. Gov Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current
Domestic Con- Fixed Produc- sumer Budget dise dise dise Account
Product sumption Invest- tion Prices Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance
ment (% of GDP, (fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn)
Citadele Asset Mgmt 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.8 6.2 5.5 3.7 3.8 2.8 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 11.5 12.1 13.8 14.4 -2.3 -2.3 -0.8 -0.3
SEB Banka 3.5 3.5 4.3 4.2 8.5 9.0 4.6 4.2 2.1 2.3 -1.4 -1.2 11.7 12.1 13.6 13.9 -1.9 -1.8 -0.4 -0.5
Econ Intelligence Unit 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 7.6 4.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.0 na na 11.9 12.6 14.2 15.1 -2.2 -2.5 -0.2 -0.4
Swedbank 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.2 12.0 10.0 na na 2.5 2.0 -1.0 -1.1 11.1 12.1 13.5 15.1 -2.4 -3.0 -0.2 -0.6
Euromonitor Intl 2.8 3.2 2.2 2.4 6.6 3.7 3.7 3.4 2.2 2.0 -1.4 -1.8 na na na na na na 0.7 0.3
Capital Economics 2.8 2.3 3.0 2.5 4.0 3.0 na na 2.8 3.3 -1.0 -1.0 11.8 12.1 14.0 14.4 -2.2 -2.3 -0.1 -0.4
IHS Economics 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.5 16.7 2.3 4.1 2.6 1.8 1.8 -0.5 -0.4 11.2 12.2 13.0 14.4 -1.8 -2.2 -0.5 0.0
Dun & Bradstreet 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.0 na na na na 1.9 2.1 -1.0 -1.2 na na na na na na 0.4 0.4
FERI 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.0 -5.2 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 -1.1 -1.1 11.0 11.3 12.7 12.8 -1.7 -1.5 0.6 0.6
Vienna Institute - WIIW 2.5 2.7 3.8 3.8 8.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 1.8 2.1 -0.8 -0.5 10.6 11.1 12.7 13.5 -2.1 -2.4 -0.3 -1.1
Oxford Economics 2.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 6.5 4.8 3.4 3.6 0.8 1.5 -1.9 -0.5 13.6 15.0 16.9 18.5 -3.2 -3.5 -0.5 -0.6
Consensus (Mean) 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.4 7.1 5.1 3.6 3.4 2.2 2.2 -1.1 -1.0 11.6 12.3 13.8 14.7 -2.2 -2.4 -0.1 -0.2
Last Month's Mean 2.9 3.1 3.8 3.6 4.7 5.4 3.6 3.5 2.1 2.1 -1.1 -0.6 11.6 12.3 13.7 14.7 -2.2 -2.3 -0.2 -0.3
3 Months Ago 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.5 4.1 1.9 2.1 -1.2 11.9 14.3 -2.4 -0.2
High 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.2 16.7 10.0 4.6 5.0 2.8 3.3 -0.5 -0.4 13.6 15.0 16.9 18.5 -1.7 -1.5 0.7 0.6
Low 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 -5.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 0.8 1.5 -1.9 -1.8 10.6 11.1 12.7 12.8 -3.2 -3.5 -0.8 -1.1
Bank of Latvia (Dec. '16) 3.0 1.6
EBRD (Nov. '16) 3.1
EC (Feb. '17) 2.8 3.0 3.9 3.9 13.0 4.9 1.9 2.0 -1.0 -1.0
IMF (Oct. '16) 3.4 3.7 1.7 2.0 -1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5
OECD (Nov. '16) 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.4 5.4 9.5 1.3 1.9 0.0 -0.3
Latest national accounts figures show that the Latvian Government and Background Data
economy grew by 2.6% (y-o-y) in Q4 2016, with manufactur- President - Mr. Raimonds Vejonis. Prime Minister - Mr. Maris Kucinskis.
ing production up by an impressive 10.2%. Final consump- Next Elections - by October 2018 (parliamentary); 2019 (presidential).
Nominal GDP - US$27.0bn (2015). Population - 2.0 million (mid-year,
tion expenditure rose 3.8% in that quarter but expected in-
2015). Euro/US$ Exchange Rate - 1.109 (average, 2015).
creases in inflation threaten to dampen domestic demand in
2017. Retail trade turnover rose 3.7% (m-o-m) in January
Historical Data
and more than 10% over the same month in 2016. 2013 2014 2015 2016
Inflation Could Weigh on GDP Growth Gross Domestic Product* 2.6 2.1 2.7 2.0
2016 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of: 2017 Private Consumption* 5.2 1.1 3.7 3.5
% Gross Fixed Investment* -6.0 0.1 -1.8 -11.5
3.6 Industrial Production* -0.7 -0.9 3.6 4.9
Consumer Prices* 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.1
2018 GDP
2017 GDP Growth Growth General Government Budget -0.9 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0 e
3.2 Forecasts (%) Forecasts (%) Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Merchandise Exports, fob 13.0 13.6 11.4 11.4
2016 GDP Outturns
2.8 Current Account Balance -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.4
Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
y-o-y 2.4% 2.3% 0.5% 2.6% US$, billions
2.6 q-o-q 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1.1%

LITHUANIA MARCH 2017 MARCH 2017
Gross Private Gross Industrial Con- Gen. Gov Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current
Domestic Con- Fixed Produc- sumer Budget dise dise dise Account
Product sump- Invest- tion Prices Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance
tion ment (% of GDP, (fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn)
Euromonitor Intl 3.2 3.3 4.3 3.6 5.0 4.6 3.8 2.6 2.2 2.0 -0.4 -0.4 na na na na na na -0.2 -0.4
FERI 3.0 3.3 4.3 3.4 2.0 4.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.1 -1.0 -1.0 24.6 24.6 27.3 27.3 -2.7 -2.7 -1.1 -1.6
Kopint-Tarki 3.0 2.7 3.5 2.8 5.8 2.5 4.5 4.1 1.9 2.0 -0.6 -0.6 28.1 30.0 30.5 32.0 -2.4 -2.0 -0.5 -0.8
Dun & Bradstreet 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.0 na na na na 2.5 2.2 -2.1 -2.0 na na na na na na -0.3 -0.3
IHS Economics 2.9 2.9 3.5 2.8 2.0 3.6 5.3 3.1 2.0 2.0 -0.7 -1.3 24.2 26.3 27.3 29.5 -3.1 -3.2 -0.6 -0.4
Swedbank Lithuania 2.8 2.5 3.5 3.5 7.0 6.0 na na 3.0 2.5 -0.8 -0.5 24.8 27.1 26.8 29.5 -2.0 -2.4 -0.3 -0.6
Consensus (Mean) 2.9 2.9 4.0 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 2.2 -0.9 -0.9 25.1 26.7 27.6 29.4 -2.5 -2.7 -0.6 -0.8
Last Month's Mean 2.8 2.9 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.4 1.9 2.1 -0.9 -0.9 24.7 26.0 26.7 28.2 -2.0 -2.2 -0.6 -0.8
3 Months Ago 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.9 3.6 1.9 2.2 -1.0 25.4 27.8 -2.4 -0.7
High 3.2 3.3 5.5 5.3 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.1 3.0 2.8 -0.4 -0.4 28.1 30.0 30.5 32.0 -1.7 -1.8 -0.2 -0.3
Low 2.6 2.5 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.6 1.3 2.0 -2.1 -2.0 22.5 24.0 24.2 25.8 -3.2 -4.0 -1.3 -1.6
Bank of
Lithuania (Mar. '17) 2.6 2.8 3.8 3.6 4.6 5.9 2.8 2.2
EBRD (Nov. '16) 2.9
EC (Feb. '17) 2.9 2.8 4.0 2.6 6.0 3.0 -0.7 -0.7
IMF (Oct. '16) 3.0 3.3 1.2 2.2 -0.5 -0.5 -1.3 -1.4
OECD (Nov. '16) 2.7 2.8 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.9 2.3 2.8 0.0 0.1
Q4 GDP growth was revised up to 3.2% (y-o-y) in the latest Government and Background Data
national accounts release, from an earlier estimate of 3.0%. President - Ms. Dalia Grybauskaite. Prime Minister - Saulius Skvernelis
The increase mainly reflected private consumption, which ad- Next Elections - 2019 (presidential); 2020 (parliamentary). Nominal
GDP - US$33.5bn (2015). Population - 2.9 million (mid-year, 2015).
vanced 5.8%, from 5.0% in Q3, while gross fixed investment Euro/US$ Exchange Rate - 1.109 (average, 2015).
accelerated to 5.7% (y-o-y). These improvements have un-
derpinned fresh optimism in the economy, which the consen-
sus is predicting will expand 2.9% in both 2017 and 2018. Historical Data
2017 Forecasts Lifted by Q4 2016 GDP Revision 2013 2014 2015 2016
% 2016 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of:2017 Gross Domestic Product* 3.5 3.5 1.8 2.3
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Private Consumption* 4.3 4.3 4.1 5.6
3.3 Gross Fixed Investment* 8.3 3.7 4.7 -0.5
2016 GDP Outturns Industrial Production* 3.2 0.1 4.9 2.8
3.2
Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Consumer Prices* 1.2 0.1 -0.8 0.5
y-o-y 2.4% 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% * average % change on previous year
3.1 q-o-q 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4%
3.0 2018 GDP Growth Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Forecasts (%) Merchandise Exports, fob 31.9 31.5 24.7 24.1
2.9 2017 GDP Growth Merchandise Imports, fob 33.1 32.8 26.9 26.0
Forecasts (%) Trade Balance, fob-fob -1.2 -1.3 -2.2 -1.9
2.8
Current Account Balance 0.7 1.7 -1.0 0.1
2.7 US$, billions
MARCH 2017 ROMANIA
Gross House- Gross Industrial Con- Gen. Gov Merchan- Merchan- Merchan- Current
Domestic hold Fixed Produc- sumer Budget dise dise dise Account
Product Con- Invest- tion Prices Balance, Exports Imports Trade Balance
sumption ment ESA 10 (fob, (fob, Balance (US$bn)
(% of GDP) US$bn) US$bn) (US$bn)
Banca Com Romana 4.3 2.8 6.0 4.3 4.5 3.3 3.4 2.4 1.4 2.7 -3.5 -3.6 60.5 65.5 73.1 80.9 -12.6 -15.4 -6.4 -7.8
Dun & Bradstreet 4.3 4.0 5.0 4.0 7.0 6.5 na na 2.0 3.0 -3.8 -3.2 60.0 63.0 72.0 77.0 -12.0 -14.0 -4.2 -4.1
Raiffeisen Research 4.2 3.5 6.0 4.5 6.5 7.0 5.0 4.0 0.9 2.9 -3.6 -3.8 58.0 65.0 70.2 79.4 -12.2 -14.4 -6.8 -7.7
OTP Bank 4.1 3.5 6.2 4.2 7.1 5.8 na na 1.1 2.9 na na na na na na na na -6.6 -8.0
ING 4.1 3.5 7.2 6.9 6.3 7.1 2.6 4.3 1.1 3.1 -3.0 -2.9 58.8 65.8 72.1 79.2 -13.3 -13.4 -5.0 -4.9
InterCapital Securities 4.0 3.8 5.0 4.5 5.6 5.5 2.9 3.2 1.8 2.5 -3.1 -3.0 61.4 65.0 73.2 75.2 -11.8 -10.2 -4.5 -3.4
HSBC 3.7 3.6 5.8 3.9 3.5 4.3 5.1 5.3 1.7 2.8 -3.4 -3.2 61.8 50.1 73.6 81.2 -11.8 -31.1 -5.7 -9.4
Euromonitor Intl 3.6 3.3 5.5 4.5 5.7 5.8 3.0 4.5 1.7 2.4 -2.9 -3.0 na na na na na na -5.0 -5.6
JP Morgan 3.5 2.9 3.9 3.6 7.5 7.7 4.5 5.0 1.1 3.4 -3.0 -3.0 76.0 83.7 92.3 102.0 -16.3 -18.3 -6.8 -7.9
IHS Economics 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.0 6.0 2.9 4.2 1.1 1.8 -3.0 -2.5 60.8 64.1 71.4 75.2 -10.6 -11.1 -5.0 -5.3
UniCredit Tiriac Bank 3.4 3.3 7.4 5.7 0.6 2.1 3.2 3.3 1.6 2.7 -3.0 -3.0 58.1 64.2 69.8 78.0 -11.6 -13.8 -4.3 -5.2
Citigroup 3.3 2.9 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.3 na na 1.2 3.1 -3.6 -2.6 52.5 55.2 62.9 66.4 -10.4 -11.2 -4.2 -4.6
BNP Paribas 2.8 2.4 6.3 5.1 1.0 4.0 na na 1.6 3.1 -3.6 -3.4 58.2 64.8 68.8 76.6 -10.6 -11.8 -6.3 -7.2
Consensus (Mean) 3.7 3.2 5.6 4.3 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.9 1.4 2.9 -3.3 -3.1 61.2 65.3 73.4 79.7 -12.2 -14.4 -5.3 -6.1
Last Month's Mean 3.6 3.2 5.3 4.0 5.1 4.9 3.4 3.9 1.7 2.8 -3.2 -3.0 61.0 65.4 73.2 79.7 -12.2 -14.3 -5.5 -6.1
3 Months Ago 3.5 3.3 4.5 5.1 2.9 1.9 2.6 -3.0 61.8 74.2 -12.5 -5.3
High 4.3 4.0 8.5 6.9 8.0 7.7 5.1 5.3 2.1 3.5 -2.9 -2.5 76.0 83.7 92.3 102.0 -10.4 -9.4 -3.8 -3.4
Low 2.8 2.1 2.9 3.0 0.6 2.1 2.0 2.4 0.9 1.8 -3.8 -3.8 52.5 50.1 62.9 66.4 -16.3 -31.1 -6.8 -9.4
EBRD (Nov. '16) 3.7
EC (Feb. '17) 4.4 3.7 6.7 4.2 6.2 6.3 -3.6 -3.9
IMF (Oct. '16) 3.8 3.3 1.7 3.1 -2.8 -2.9 -5.5 -6.0
National Commission
for Prognosis (Feb. '17) 5.2 5.5 7.2 6.3 7.2 7.9 5.4 5.4 1.4 2.5 57.8 62.3 69.5 75.7 -11.7 -13.4 -4.4 -4.6
The Romanian economy surged 4.8% in 2016, supported by

(Individual forecasts Foreign Exchange Reserve Forecasts
a hefty 7.5% jump in household consumption. Wage rises and available in our Excel End Year (IMF definition, US$ bn)
a steady decline in joblessness, coupled with tax cuts and spreadsheet service.) 2017 2018
falling inflation, bolstered spending in the economy. The IMF Consensus (Mean) 38.2 40.4
has, nonetheless, stated that the government risks non- High 40.0 43.0
compliance with European Commission rules this year, as its Low 35.1 34.3
budget deficit could exceed the 3.0% of GDP ceiling due to its Standard Deviation 1.5 2.6
commitments to fiscal stimulus.
Government and Background Data
President - Mr. Klaus Iohannis. Prime Minister - Mr. Sorin Grindeanu.
Historical Data 2013 2014 2015 2016
Next Elections - 2019 (presidential); 2020 (parliamentary). Gross Domestic Product* 3.5 3.1 3.9 4.8
Nominal GDP - US$177.9bn (2015). Population - 19.5 million (mid-2015).
Household Consumption* 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.4
Leu/US$ - 4.006 (average, 2015). Leu/Euro - 4.444 (average, 2015).
Gross Fixed Investment* -6.8 3.8 7.2 0.0
2017 Growth Forecasts Rise Again Industrial Production* 7.9 6.1 2.7 1.7
2016 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of: 2017 Consumer Prices* 4.0 1.1 -0.6 -1.5
%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar * average % change on previous year
3.8
3.7 2016 GDP Outturns Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3.6 y-o-y 4.3% 6.0% 4.3% 4.7% Merchandise Exports, fob 58.2 62.0 54.4 57.7
3.5 q-o-q 1.3% 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% Merchandise Imports, fob 66.0 70.8 63.1 67.9
3.4
3.3 2017 GDP Growth Foreign Exchange Reserves 44.8 39.1 35.1 34.8
3.2 Forecasts (%) 2018 GDP excl. Gold & SDRs, end year
Growth
US$ billions
3.1 Forecasts (%) e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
SLOVAKIA MARCH 2017
Domestic hold Fixed Produc- Prices Budget dise dise dise Account
Product Con- Invest- tion Balance, Exports Imports Trade Balance
Capital Economics 3.5 3.3 4.0 2.8 1.0 2.5 na na 1.5 2.3 -1.8 -1.0 85.3 91.2 78.6 84.1 6.7 7.2 -1.2 -1.3
UniCredit 3.4 3.7 3.1 2.9 5.7 3.3 5.5 8.5 1.2 1.8 -1.5 -0.8 76.8 85.7 75.2 83.4 1.6 2.3 -1.0 -0.7
IHS Economics 3.3 3.6 3.0 2.7 3.7 3.5 3.9 5.3 1.7 2.1 -1.7 -1.3 76.1 84.9 75.0 83.3 1.1 1.6 0.2 1.1
Econ Institute SAV 3.3 4.1 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.9 4.4 5.2 1.1 1.8 -1.7 -1.0 79.6 84.6 76.5 82.1 3.1 2.5 na na
GKI Economic Rsrch 3.3 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.5 4.0 5.0 6.5 1.4 2.0 -2.2 -1.8 80.0 85.0 77.5 82.2 2.5 2.8 0.3 0.0
Tatra Banka 3.3 4.0 3.0 3.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 8.0 1.1 2.2 -2.0 -2.0 73.7 83.0 71.0 79.4 2.7 3.6 0.4 1.4
Citigroup 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.6 1.5 5.6 6.3 7.2 1.3 1.9 -2.1 -1.5 76.3 81.2 73.8 79.5 2.5 1.7 -0.1 -1.0
Econ Intelligence Unit 3.2 3.6 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.3 1.6 na na 78.2 82.4 75.7 79.1 2.4 3.3 -0.9 0.1
Slovenska Sporitelna 3.1 3.7 3.0 2.7 4.4 2.3 4.3 4.0 1.0 2.0 -1.5 -1.2 86.4 93.8 82.4 88.4 4.0 5.4 1.1 2.9
Vienna Institute - WIIW 3.1 3.6 3.0 3.1 6.5 4.0 3.0 5.0 1.2 1.8 -2.2 -1.8 78.4 82.7 75.7 79.5 2.7 3.2 0.4 0.9
OTP Bank 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.6 2.2 5.0 na na 1.5 1.9 -2.1 -2.0 na na na na na na -1.3 -1.2
Euromonitor Intl 3.1 3.0 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.5 1.1 1.6 -2.2 -2.0 82.8 89.4 78.1 84.3 4.7 5.1 -1.2 -0.5
Komercni Banka 2.8 2.8 4.1 4.8 1.3 4.8 7.9 5.6 1.5 2.2 -1.9 -1.7 76.8 81.6 72.2 77.4 4.5 4.2 0.5 0.6
Oxford Economics 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 5.8 6.3 3.4 3.6 1.4 2.4 -1.3 -1.2 73.1 75.9 70.8 74.2 2.3 1.7 0.1 0.1
Consensus (Mean) 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.5 1.3 2.0 -1.9 -1.5 78.7 84.7 75.6 81.3 3.1 3.4 -0.2 0.2
Last Month's Mean 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.1 4.4 3.9 4.3 5.5 1.3 1.9 -1.9 -1.5 78.9 85.3 75.7 81.9 3.1 3.4 0.1 0.3
3 Months Ago 3.1 3.4 3.0 5.3 4.1 1.2 1.9 -1.9 79.4 77.1 2.3 -0.3
High 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.8 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 1.7 2.4 -1.3 -0.8 86.4 93.8 82.4 88.4 6.7 7.2 1.1 2.9
Low 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 1.0 2.3 3.0 3.5 1.0 1.6 -2.2 -2.0 73.1 75.9 70.8 74.2 1.1 1.6 -1.3 -1.3
EBRD (Nov. '16) 3.2
EC (Feb. '17) 2.9 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.1 5.4 0.9 1.4 -1.4 -0.6
Finance Min. (Mar. '17) 3.3 4.0 2.5 2.7 3.0 1.9 1.1 1.7 -1.3 -0.4 77.7 88.0 74.3 83.2 3.3 4.8 0.8 1.5
IMF (Oct. '16) 3.3 3.7 1.1 1.2 -2.2 -2.0 -0.6 -0.2
Infostat (Mar. '17) 3.5 3.8 3.0 3.1 4.2 1.5 5.1 5.2 1.6 1.8 -1.8 -1.4 77.5 81.6 74.6 78.6 2.9 3.0 -0.2 -0.1
OECD (Nov. '16) 3.4 3.8 3.1 3.3 5.0 5.0 0.8 1.4 -1.5 -0.7 0.3
Growth remained unchanged at 3.0% (y-o-y) in Q4 2016, Interest Rate Forecasts

with a pick up in external demand responsible for most of
Rate on Survey Date -0.3% 0.6%
the increase in output. Data showed that the exports of goods
(Individual forecasts 3 mth EURO 10 Year Gov. Bond
and services rose by 6.3% (y-o-y) in that quarter, while do- available in our Excel Interbank Rate (%) Yield (%)
mestic demand suffered a mild contraction of -0.1%. Infla- spreadsheet service.) End Jun. 2017 End Mar. 2018 End Jun. 2017 End Mar. 2018
tion has, meanwhile, climbed sharply in recent months to Consensus (Mean) -0.3 -0.2 0.9 1.1
stand at 1.2% (y-o-y) in February.
President - Mr. Andrej Kiska. Prime Minister - Mr Robert Fico Gross Domestic Product* 1.5 2.6 3.8 3.3
Next Elections - 2019 (presidential); 2020 (parliamentary). Household Consumption* -0.8 1.4 2.2 2.9
Nominal GDP - US$86.6bn (2015). Population - 5.4 million (mid-year, Gross Fixed Investment* -0.9 1.2 16.9 -9.3
2015). Euro/US$ Exchange Rate - 1.109 (average, 2015).
Industrial Production* 3.8 3.5 7.4 4.7
2017 Growth Outlook Continues to Improve Consumer Prices* 1.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5
2016 Consensus Forecasts from Survey of: 2017 * average % change on previous year
%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar General Government Budget -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.3 e
3.8 Balance (% of GDP. ESA10)
2016 GDP Outturns Merchandise Exports. fob 82.5 83.0 73.3 75.6
3.6 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018 GDP Growth Merchandise Imports. fob 78.5 79.2 71.0 72.9
y-o-y 3.4% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% Forecasts (%)
Trade Balance. fob-fob 4.0 3.8 2.3 2.7
3.4 q-o-q 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Current Account Balance 1.8 1.2 0.2 -0.5
3 month Euro Interbank 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3
3.2
Rate. %. end year
3.0 10 Yr Government Bond 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.5
2017 GDP Growth Yield. %. end year
Forecasts (%)
2.8 US$. billions e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
MARCH 2017 SLOVENIA
Domestic hold Fixed Production Prices Budget dise dise dise Account
Product Con- Invest- Balance, Exports Imports Trade Balance
Citigroup 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.3 3.8 6.1 5.5 2.7 2.3 -1.5 -1.2 na na na na na na na na
Addiko Bank 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 5.5 1.4 1.8 -2.2 -1.8 28.5 29.4 26.9 27.9 1.7 1.6 2.8 2.5
Vienna Institute - WIIW 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.4 5.0 5.5 4.5 4.5 1.3 1.4 -2.0 -1.9 28.5 29.8 27.1 28.6 1.4 1.2 2.6 2.4
Oxford Economics 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 3.6 1.8 2.1 -2.3 -2.3 28.7 31.4 27.2 28.0 1.4 3.4 2.5 2.5
Econ Institute EIPF 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.2 3.9 3.1 1.5 1.7 -2.1 -1.9 na na na na na na 2.3 2.0
Raiffeisen Research 2.7 2.5 na na na na 5.7 5.2 1.5 1.9 -2.1 -1.7 na na na na na na na na
IHS Economics 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.3 3.0 2.6 4.4 3.4 1.9 1.7 -1.7 -1.8 26.1 28.0 24.4 26.4 1.7 1.6 3.0 2.9
GKI Econ Research 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.2 2.8 4.2 4.0 1.0 1.5 -2.5 -2.0 29.0 30.5 27.2 29.0 1.8 1.5 3.0 2.7
InterCapital Securities 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 3.7 2.0 4.0 3.7 1.3 1.5 -2.2 -2.0 29.0 29.5 27.0 27.5 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.9
Kopint-Tarki 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 1.3 2.0 -2.2 -1.9 28.9 30.0 27.4 28.6 1.5 1.4 2.8 2.7
Moody's Analytics 2.5 2.0 1.8 2.2 8.8 6.3 3.4 2.0 1.6 1.7 na na na na na na na na 2.7 2.4
Euromonitor Intl 2.5 2.1 2.3 1.4 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 1.5 -2.6 -2.7 26.0 27.3 25.4 26.8 0.5 0.5 3.0 2.9
Dun & Bradstreet 2.4 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.5 4.0 na na 0.8 1.8 -1.8 -1.6 na na na na na na 3.3 2.9
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.2 3.1 2.0 2.5 2.8 1.7 1.7 na na 29.0 30.6 27.2 29.0 1.8 1.6 2.7 2.7
Consensus (Mean) 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 3.9 3.7 4.2 3.8 1.5 1.8 -2.1 -1.9 28.2 29.6 26.6 28.0 1.5 1.6 2.8 2.6
Last Month's Mean 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 3.4 3.4 4.0 3.7 1.4 1.7 -2.1 -1.9 28.2 29.7 26.9 28.3 1.4 1.4 2.7 2.6
3 Months Ago 2.3 2.3 2.2 3.2 3.7 1.3 1.6 -2.3 28.3 26.5 1.7 2.7
High 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.7 8.8 6.3 6.1 5.5 2.7 2.3 -1.5 -1.2 29.0 31.4 27.4 29.0 2.0 3.4 3.3 2.9
Low 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 0.8 1.4 -2.6 -2.7 26.0 27.3 24.4 26.4 0.5 0.5 2.3 2.0
Bank of
Slovenia (Dec. '16) 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.3 4.4 4.0 1.4 1.4
EBRD (Nov. '16) 2.3
EC (Feb. '17) 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.9 5.3 6.4 -1.7 -1.4
IMAD (Sep. '16) 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.0 6.0 5.0 1.4 1.5 29.5 31.1 27.7 29.5 1.8 1.6 2.6 2.5
IMF (Oct. '16) 1.8 1.6 1.0 1.4 -2.3 -2.4 3.3 3.1
OECD (Nov. '16) 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 4.0 4.0 0.8 1.2 -1.6 3.4 3.7
Growth in Slovenia quickened in Q4 2016 as it advanced to Government and Background Data

2.6% (y-o-y), from a downwardly-revised 2.5% in Q3. House-
President - Mr. Borut Pahor. Prime Minister - Mr. Miro Cerar. Next
hold consumption expanded 4.1% (y-o-y), the best annual Elections - Dec. 2017 (presidential); 2018 (parliamentary). Nominal
performance this decade, while gross fixed investment rose GDP - US$42.7bn (2015). Population - 2.1 million (mid-year, 2015).
0.9%. On the back of this buoyant national accounts re- Euro/US$ - 1.109 (average, 2015).
lease and positive trade data for January, the consensus
has upgraded its 2017 GDP growth forecast to 2.7%.
Historical Data
Growth Momentum Builds 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross Domestic Product* -1.1 3.1 2.3 2.5
% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Household Consumption* -4.1 1.9 0.4 2.8
2.7 Gross Fixed Investment* 3.2 1.4 1.0 -3.1
2016 GDP Outturns Industrial Production* -0.9 1.7 5.1 6.6
2.6 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
Consumer Prices* 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.1
y-o-y 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6%
q-o-q 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.2% * average % change on previous year
2.5
2.4 2017 GDP Growth Balance (% of GDP, ESA10)
Forecasts (%) Merchandise Exports, fob 28.8 30.5 26.7 27.6
2018 GDP
Growth Trade Balance, fob-fob 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.7
2.2 Forecasts (%) Current Account Balance 2.3 3.1 2.2 3.0
US$, billions
UKRAINE MARCH
MARCH2017
2017
End Year,
% change
Gross Household Gross Industrial Con- Money Gov. Merchandise

Domestic Consump- Fixed Produc- sumer Supply Budget Exports Imports Trade
Product tion Investment tion Prices (M2) Balance (fob, (fob, Balance
Capital Economics 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 na na 10.8 7.0 na na -3.3 -3.0 39.3 42.4 42.1 44.6 -2.9 -2.2
SP Advisors 2.8 4.0 4.0 5.0 12.0 10.0 4.5 6.0 12.1 8.7 5.0 5.0 -3.0 -2.8 na na na na na na
OTP Bank 2.7 3.3 2.6 3.4 6.7 5.6 na na 11.2 7.1 na na -3.1 -3.0 na na na na na na
Euromonitor Intl 2.5 2.9 4.1 5.1 7.2 6.9 3.2 2.1 11.3 8.0 na na na na na na na na na na
Credit Agricole 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.2 5.0 5.5 3.0 3.2 11.9 8.5 10.0 8.0 -3.1 -2.8 36.3 40.1 43.2 47.1 -6.9 -6.9
Dragon Capital 2.5 3.5 5.0 na 12.0 na 2.0 5.0 12.1 7.7 8.5 11.0 -2.9 -2.9 36.4 37.7 43.4 44.6 -7.0 -6.9
UBS 2.5 2.8 na na na na 2.6 2.6 10.5 7.8 na na na na 35.0 37.0 41.0 43.2 -6.0 -6.2
Vienna Institute - WIIW 2.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 8.0 7.0 3.5 4.0 10.5 6.1 na na -3.0 -2.5 34.2 35.6 41.8 43.4 -7.5 -7.8
Citigroup 2.5 2.6 5.0 5.0 na na na na 12.5 8.1 na na na na 35.7 37.1 38.7 40.0 -3.0 -2.9
CASE 2.4 na 4.9 na 7.0 na 2.6 na 11.6 na 8.4 na -3.0 na 35.0 na 42.8 na -7.8 na
Econ Intelligence Unit 2.4 1.5 2.5 2.5 4.0 -3.0 3.5 3.5 13.0 10.5 9.6 14.4 na na 35.5 35.8 42.7 44.0 -7.2 -8.2
IHS Economics 2.3 2.4 3.3 3.1 8.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 11.0 5.6 7.7 11.8 -3.0 -2.7 33.8 35.3 39.3 43.0 -5.5 -7.7
Raiffeisen Research 2.0 3.0 1.5 1.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 10.7 7.5 na na -4.0 -3.0 35.0 34.7 42.0 41.4 -7.0 -6.7
Naftogaz 1.9 2.3 3.3 3.0 2.4 3.0 2.6 2.9 10.1 7.3 6.3 14.1 -3.3 -3.0 37.5 39.8 40.1 41.0 -2.6 -1.2
Oxford Economics 1.8 3.0 3.0 3.5 8.0 5.5 3.2 5.0 11.0 8.9 10.9 10.7 -3.1 -2.6 49.5 51.8 51.4 55.5 -1.8 -3.7
Nat Acad of Sciences 1.0 3.1 2.7 4.0 4.0 5.1 2.2 4.5 12.8 9.7 14.5 15.0 -3.3 -3.0 36.0 39.3 43.2 46.2 -7.2 -6.9
Consensus (Mean) 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.6 6.7 5.1 3.1 3.9 11.4 7.9 9.0 11.3 -3.2 -2.8 36.9 38.9 42.4 44.5 -5.6 -5.6
Last Month's Mean 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.3 3.4 3.8 10.5 7.8 9.4 12.2 -3.2 -2.8 37.2 39.3 42.2 44.6 -5.0 -5.3
3 Months Ago 2.6 3.1 2.9 4.2 3.6 9.6 7.3 10.3 -3.1 36.6 41.2 -4.6
High 5.0 4.0 5.0 5.1 12.0 10.0 4.5 6.0 13.0 10.5 14.5 15.0 -2.9 -2.5 49.5 51.8 51.4 55.5 -1.8 -1.2
Low 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 2.4 -3.0 2.0 2.1 10.1 5.6 5.0 5.0 -4.0 -3.0 33.8 34.7 38.7 40.0 -7.8 -8.2
EBRD (Nov. '16) 2.0
IMF (Oct. '16) 2.5 3.0 11.0 8.0 -4.4 -3.7
Forecasts for Ukraine have brightened, after Q4 GDP data (Individual forecasts Current Account FX Reserves
confirmed that the recovery in the economy remains on track available in our Excel Balance (US$bn) (US$bn)
spreadsheet service.)
(see table in chart below). The government was granted an 2017 2018 2017 2018
additional 600mn loan from the European Commission ear- Consensus (Mean) -3.6 -3.6 17.8 19.7
lier this month and it is hoped that these funds will facilitate High -1.5 -1.8 25.3 30.8
Low -5.2 -4.7 11.5 11.5
progress in structural reforms. EU loans to the country have
Standard Deviation 1.0 0.9 3.4 5.4
now totalled 2.8bn since 2014.
President - Mr. Petro Poroshenko. Prime Minister - Mr. Volodymyr Gross Domestic Product* 0.0 -6.6 -9.8 2.3
Groysman. Next Elections - 2019 (parliamentary and presidential). Nomi- Household Consumption* 6.9 -8.3 -20.7 1.8
nal GDP - US$91.7bn (2015). Population - 44.8 million (mid-year, 2015).
Gross Fixed Investment* -8.4 -24.0 -9.2 20.1
Hryvnia/US$ - 21.60 (ave. 2015). Hryvnia/ - 23.95 (ave. 2015)
Industrial Production* -4.3 -10.1 -13.0 2.4
Forecasts Improve on Solid Q4 GDP Outturn Consumer Prices* -0.3 12.1 48.7 13.9
2016 Consensus Forecast from Survey of: 2017 Money Supply (M2), end year 17.5 5.4 4.0 10.9
%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar * average % change on previous year
3.4 Conso. Gov. Budget Balance -4.3 -4.5 -1.6 -2.9 e
3.2 2016 GDP Outturns 2018 GDP Growth % of GDP
3.0 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Forecasts (%) Merchandise Exports, fob 59.1 50.6 35.4 33.6
y-o-y 0.1% 1.5% 2.3% 4.8% Merchandise Imports, fob 81.2 57.7 38.9 40.4
2.8
2017 GDP Growth Forecasts (%) Trade Balance, fob-fob -22.1 -7.1 -3.5 -6.8
2.6
2.4 Foreign Exchange Reserves 18.8 6.6 12.4 14.6
2.2 * GDP outturns exclude the Autonomous Republic excl. Gold & SDRs, end year US$ billions
2.0 of Crimea and the City of Sevastopol e = consensus estimate based on latest survey
20 Copyright
CopyrightConsensus
ConsensusEconomics
EconomicsInc.
Inc.2017
2017
MARCH 2017 ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES
Forecasts for a number of additional countries, shown below and on the following page, were provided by the following leading
economic forecasters:
Addiko Bank Citigroup Deutsche Bank
Economist Intelligence Unit Euromonitor Fitch Ratings
HSBC IHS Economics ING
Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research Vienna Institute - WIIW
ALBANIA Population - 3.2mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP - US$11.6bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.3 e 3.7 3.9
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.3 2.6 2.9
Current Account (US Dollars, bn) -1.4 -1.7 -1.3 -1.4 e -1.5 -1.5
ARMENIA Population - 3.0mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$10.5bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) 3.3 3.6 3.0 0.2 2.3 2.7
Industrial Production (annual average % change) 6.9 2.7 5.2 6.7 3.1 3.4
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) 5.8 3.0 3.7 -1.4 2.2 3.4
AZERBAIJAN Population - 9.8mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$53.0bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) 5.8 2.8 1.1 -3.8 0.6 1.7
Industrial Production (annual average % change) 1.8 -0.7 2.3 -0.4 3.1 2.9
Current Account (US Dollars, bn) 13.1 10.4 -0.2 -1.3 e 0.2 1.6
BELARUS Population - 9.5mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$54.6bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) 1.0 1.7 -3.9 -2.6 -0.1 1.3
Industrial Production (annual average % change) -4.9 2.0 -6.6 -0.2 1.2 2.2
Current Account (US Dollars, bn) -7.6 -5.2 -1.8 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9
BOSNIA & Population - 3.8mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
HERZEGOVINA Nominal GDP - US$16.0bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 1.6 2.1
CYPRUS Population - 0.8mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$19.3bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) -6.0 -1.5 1.7 2.8 2.6 2.5
Industrial Production (annual average % change) -13.4 -0.1 3.4 8.8 4.5 3.8
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) -0.4 -1.4 -2.1 -1.4 1.2 1.3

ADDITIONAL COUNTRIES MARCH 2017
GEORGIA Population - 4.0mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$14.0bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Production (annual average % change) 6.3 12.4 3.7 3.4 e 4.3 4.6
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) -0.5 3.1 4.0 2.1 4.7 4.0
KAZAKHSTAN Population - 17.6mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$182.8bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Production (annual average % change) 1.3 0.2 -1.6 -1.1 3.1 3.7
Current Account (US Dollars, bn) 1.2 6.0 -5.5 -8.2 -2.4 -1.4
MACEDONIA Population - 2.0mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$10.1bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) 2.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 1.2 2.0
MOLDOVA Population - 4.1mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$6.5bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) 9.4 4.8 -0.5 4.1 3.3 3.5
SERBIA Population - 7.2mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP - US$36.5bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross Domestic Product (annual average % change) 2.6 -1.8 0.8 2.8 2.9 3.2
Industrial Production (annual average % change) 5.4 -6.4 8.4 4.7 4.6 4.2
Current Account (US Dollars, bn) -2.8 -2.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.5 -1.7
TURKMENISTAN Population - 5.2mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
Nominal GDP - US$44.1bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) 6.8 6.0 5.5 8.7 e 8.9 7.6
UZBEKISTAN Population - 29.2mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Nominal GDP - US$56.3bn (2015) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Production (annual average % change) 9.6 8.3 7.9 5.3 e 6.2 4.5
Consumer Prices (annual average % change) 11.7 9.1 8.5 8.9 e 12.5 11.4
Current Account (US Dollars, bn) 1.6 0.5 0.0 -0.1 e 0.5 0.7

MARCH 2017 FOREIGN EXCHANGE FORECASTS
Foreign exchange forecasts represent the consensus (mean) estimates of those forecasters polled in our latest survey.
All rates are amount of cur- Historical Data Consensus Forecasts
rency per US$ or euro. A Forecast
Rates at the end of: Spot Rate Forecast Forecast Forecast
positive (+) sign for the per-
cent change implies an ap- Mar. 20 End Apr. End Jun % End Mar. % End Mar. %
preciation of the currency. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2017 change 2018 change 2019 change
AGAINST US$
Armenian Dram 405.1 475.0 483.8 483.9 483.5 486.4 488.0 -0.9 493.2 -2.0 495.4 -2.4
Azerbaijani Manat 0.783 0.783 1.562 1.802 1.705 1.777 1.750 -2.6 1.746 -2.3 1.688 1.0
Belarussian Rouble 0.953 1.100 1.865 2.008 2.008 1.959 2.051 -2.1 2.344 -14.4 2.521 -20.4
Georgian Lari 1.735 1.848 2.400 2.665 2.450 2.501 2.484 -1.4 2.477 -1.1 2.462 -0.5
Kazakhstani Tenge 154.1 182.5 340.6 333.7 315.6 319.3 321.0 -1.7 326.4 -3.3 331.2 -4.7
Russian Rouble 32.86 60.00 73.04 61.04 57.34 59.69 60.31 -4.9 60.88 -5.8 61.35 -6.5
Turkish Lira 2.149 2.338 2.919 3.518 3.623 3.691 3.799 -4.6 3.952 -8.3 4.069 -11.0
Turkmenistani Manat 2.845 2.850 3.505 3.500 3.510 3.502 3.502 0.2 3.652 -3.9 3.834 -8.5
Ukrainian Hryvnia 8.240 15.82 24.05 27.10 26.89 27.46 27.41 -1.9 28.84 -6.8 29.27 -8.1
Uzbekistani Som 2202 2422 2810 3218 3500 3391 3407 2.7 3585 -2.4 3649 -4.1
AGAINST EURO
Albanian Lek 140.0 139.9 137.0 135.6 135.3 133.6 133.5 1.4 133.8 1.1 134.7 0.4
Bosnian Marka 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 0.0 1.956 0.0 1.956 0.0
Bulgarian Lev 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 0.0 1.956 0.0 1.956 0.0
Croatian Kuna 7.634 7.657 7.641 7.558 7.406 7.441 7.443 -0.5 7.486 -1.1 7.505 -1.3
Czech Koruna 27.37 27.72 27.02 27.02 27.02 26.87 26.59 1.6 26.14 3.4 25.81 4.7
Hungarian Forint 297.1 315.8 316.0 308.9 308.4 311.0 311.9 -1.1 313.0 -1.5 313.4 -1.6
Macedonian Denar 61.47 61.44 61.43 61.58 61.57 60.70 60.70 1.4 61.47 0.2 61.51 0.1
Moldovan Leu 17.99 19.00 21.42 21.02 21.15 20.59 20.66 2.4 20.25 4.4 20.04 5.5
Polish Zloty 4.158 4.298 4.290 4.403 4.277 4.320 4.338 -1.4 4.265 0.3 4.190 2.1
Romanian Leu 4.464 4.484 4.522 4.543 4.561 4.503 4.519 0.9 4.494 1.5 4.488 1.6
Serbian Dinar 114.4 121.1 121.3 123.4 123.9 121.4 121.6 1.9 123.3 0.5 123.7 0.2
23.0 20.0 1.0

24.0 30.0
1.5
25.0 40.0
2.0
26.0 50.0
2.5
27.0 60.0 Russian Rouble
per US Dollar 3.0 Turkish Lira
28.0 70.0
Czech koruna per US Dollar
29.0 per Euro 80.0 3.5
30.0 90.0 4.0

Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '10 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '10 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '10 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16
MARCH 2017 OIL PRICES
Brent, US$ per barrel Oil Prices Fall Back on Concerns About Rising Inventories
Spot prices for Brent remained stable at the end of February,
Range 1990-2017 US$9.10 - 143.95 giving the impression that the market was stabilising. However,
Spot Rate (Mar. 13) 50.10 oil prices have dropped in early March on oversupply concerns.
Brent Forecast for WTI even tumbled below US$50 per barrel momentarily on March
March Survey* End Jun. End Mar. 9. This appears to have been prompted by another sizeable
2017 2018 increase in US crude inventories, to new highs. Investors are
concerned that the OPEC production cut at the end of last year
Mean Forecast 54.8 56.4
(which has done much to boost oil) has yet to dent the supply
High 60.0 66.0 glut, a situation OPEC acknowledged on March 14. Saudi Ara-
Low 50.0 45.0 bia, arguably the worlds most influential oil producer, indicated
Standard Deviation 3.1 4.5 that OPEC might not cut the production quota further and warned
No. of Forecasts 55 54 other producers (particularly in the US) not to bring too much
production back online.
* Source: Consensus Forecasts - G-7 & Western Europe
MARCH
EASTERN EUROPE CONSENSUS FORECASTS: REGIONAL ECONOMIC 2017
ACTIVITY
Consensus Forecast Increase From Prior Month Consensus Forecast Decrease From Prior Month
March 2017 Real GDP Consumer Prices Current Account

Survey % increase % increase Balance, US$bn
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Bulgaria 3.4 3.1 3.0 -0.8 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.9
Croatia 2.9 3.0 2.7 -1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3
Czech Republic 2.3 2.5 2.6 0.7 2.3 2.0 2.8 1.6 1.3
Estonia 1.6 2.4 2.8 0.1 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.3 0.2
Hungary 2.0 3.1 3.0 0.4 2.6 2.8 7.1 4.7 4.1
Latvia 2.0 2.9 3.0 0.1 2.2 2.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.2
Lithuania 2.3 2.9 2.9 0.5 2.3 2.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.8
Poland 2.8 3.2 3.2 -0.6 1.9 2.0 -2.5 -4.4 -5.9
Romania 4.8 3.7 3.2 -1.5 1.4 2.9 -4.6 -5.3 -6.1
Russia -0.4 1.2 1.6 5.4 4.4 4.3 22.2 44.4 44.9
Slovakia 3.3 3.2 3.4 -0.5 1.3 2.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.2
Slovenia 2.5 2.7 2.5 -0.1 1.5 1.8 3.0 2.8 2.6
Turkey 2.0 2.2 3.0 7.8 9.8 7.9 -32.6 -33.1 -34.9
Ukraine 2.3 2.5 2.9 13.9 11.4 7.9 -3.4 -3.6 -3.6
1
Eastern Europe 1.4 2.2 2.6 4.7 5.2 4.7 -25.5 -3.2 -4.9
2
CIS 0.1 1.6 2.1 7.3 5.7 5.2 1.6 33.2 37.4
3
South-East Europe 3.9 3.4 3.1 -0.9 1.6 2.5 -4.9 -6.7 -8.4
4
Central Europe 2.6 3.0 3.0 -0.2 2.0 2.1 9.9 4.5 2.3
5
Western Europe 1.7 1.6 1.5 0.4 1.7 1.7 435.1 456.2 476.6
6
North America 1.6 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.5 2.3 -541.6 -585.5 -629.3
Asia Pacific 7 4.7 4.7 4.6 1.7 2.2 2.3 588.1 608.3 579.9
Latin America 8 -0.6 1.6 2.6 13.9 10.9 8.8 -110.3 -109.8 -122.0
Regional totals for real GDP and consumer prices are weighted averages calculated using 2015 GDP weights, converted at average
2015 exchange rates.1Includes countries above plus those listed in the index on page 1. 2Commonwealth of Independent States includes
Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. 3Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia. 4Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia. 5Germany, France, the United Kingdom,
Italy, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. 6USA
and Canada. 7Sixteen countries taken from the latest monthly issue of Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts. 8Eighteen countries taken
from the latest monthly issue of Latin American Consensus Forecasts, with inflation forecasts on a December/December basis. Western
Europe and North America forecasts taken from the latest monthly issue of Consensus Forecasts.
2017 GDP Growth & Inflation Forecasts 2018 GDP Growth & Inflation Forecasts
(Average % change on previous calendar year) (Average % change on previous calendar year) %
% %
%
Ukraine: 11.4%
4.0 CPI Inflation (right scale)
10.0 4.0 10.0
CPI Inflation (right scale)
GDP Growth (left scale) GDP Growth
8.0 8.0
3.0 3.0 (left scale)
6.0 6.0
2.0 2.0
4.0 4.0
1.0 1.0
2.0 2.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ukraine
Romania
Turkey
Russia
Estonia
Czech
Croatia
Slovakia
Poland
Hungary
Slovenia
Latvia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Romania
Turkey
Czech
Croatia
Estonia
Poland
Slovakia
Russia
Hungary
Slovenia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Latvia
Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts is available at US$597 or 387 or 517 for twelve monthly issues.
For prices and descriptions of our other regional products and services including a range of electronic delivery options
visit: www.consensuseconomics.com, or contact us at editors@consensuseconomics.com.
Consensus Economics Inc.
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom. Tel (44 20) 7491 3211; Fax (44 20) 7409 2331.
24Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc.EECF
03/2017 2017

Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts: A Digest of Economic Forecasts

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EASTERN EUROPE A Digest of

Bulgaria.............................................. 12 Hungary (pages 4-5), Poland (pages 6-7), Bulgaria (page

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year End Year, Annual Total

Rates on Survey Date Koruna Cap Soon to be Abandoned

134.6 147.4 125.0 136.9 9.6 10.4 1.6 1.3

Central Bank Inflation Target Monthly Inflation Forecasts

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year End Year, Annual Total

4 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

Growth Rising to 3.1% in 2017

Central Bank Inflation Target Monthly Inflation Forecasts

End Year, Annual Total

6 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

Rates on Survey Date Q4 2016 Growth Confirmed at 2.7% (y-o-y)

Central Bank Inflation Target Monthly Inflation Forecasts

% change on CPI inflation - % Change on Same Month in Previous Year

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017 7

2017 GDP Growth

Consensus forecasts Monthly Inflation Forecasts

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017 9

Average % Change on Previous Calendar Year End Year, Annual Total

10 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

Central Bank End-Year Inflation Targets: Monthly Inflation Forecasts

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

The 3.4% expansion in 2016 was not as high as that of 2015

12 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017 13

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

14 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017 15

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

The Romanian economy surged 4.8% in 2016, supported by

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

Growth remained unchanged at 3.0% (y-o-y) in Q4 2016, Interest Rate Forecasts

Average % Change on Previous Year Annual Total

Growth in Slovenia quickened in Q4 2016 as it advanced to Government and Background Data

Gross Household Gross Industrial Con- Money Gov. Merchandise

ARMENIA Population - 3.0mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

AZERBAIJAN Population - 9.8mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

BELARUS Population - 9.5mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

CYPRUS Population - 0.8mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017 21

GEORGIA Population - 4.0mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

KAZAKHSTAN Population - 17.6mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

MACEDONIA Population - 2.0mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

MOLDOVA Population - 4.1mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

SERBIA Population - 7.2mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

TURKMENISTAN Population - 5.2mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

UZBEKISTAN Population - 29.2mn (2015, mid-year) Historical Data Consensus Forecasts

22 Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

23.0 20.0 1.0

30.0 90.0 4.0

MARCH 2017 OIL PRICES

March 2017 Real GDP Consumer Prices Current Account

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

24Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2017

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