Z. Geomorph. N.F. 53 Suppl.

2 31 47 Berlin Stuttgart Dezember 200931

Landslide hazard assessment in the Curvature Carpathians

and Subcarpathians, Romania
Mihai Micu, Dan Blteanu
with 6 gures and 5 tables
Summary. The Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians in Romania, built of Cretaceous-Paleo-
gene ysch and Mio-Pliocene molasse deposits, are situated in the seismic region of Vrancea, an area
aected by a large diversity of mass movements.
Based on a GIS assessment, signicant variations in landslide hazard are identied, correlating
with the following parameters: lithology, structure, slopes, land-use and seismicity. A landslide sus-
ceptibility assessment was performed following a bivariate statistical analysis, based on a landslide
inventory of more than 500 cases. With no well-documented rainfall thresholds triggering dierent
types of landslides, a landslide hazard assessment based on the Angot Pluvial Index was attempted
for the same area. As a result of this assessment, very large areas show high and very high landslide
susceptibility, while the hazard assessment allowed for some primary correlations of rainfall amount
thresholds with landslide occurrence.

1 Introduction
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The Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians in Romania represent a particular sector

of the mountain range, especially from the point of view of an intensely modelled relief by
slope and channel processes, as a result of numerous causative, preparatory and triggering
factors.
This paper focuses on the main features of the Vrancea seismic region, especially on the
main landslide characteristics. At the same time, landslide mapping and inventory were
made for landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment at a regional scale.
Especially the Curvature Subcarpathians have a very high landslide-occurrence potential,
due to such characteristics as structure, lithology, morphometry, land-use and land-cover
changes as a result of intense human intervention, heavy summer rainfalls or early spring
showers simultaneous with snowmelt.
This study, carried out in one of Romanias most landslide-aected areas, highlights the
importance of landslide hazard assessment, given the strong and long-term inuence of
landslides on settlement development and optimum land use.

2 Study-area
The Curvature Carpathians represents the southern part of the Eastern Carpathians of
Romania, an uplifted fold-and-thrust belt attached to the Neogene volcanic area (Panaiotu
et al. 2007). They showed a polyphase tectonic evolution with major thrusting and folding
during a NW-SE Miocene compression and minor internal deformation during a late

DOI: 10.1127/0372-8854/2009/0053S3-0031 0372-8854/09/5303-0031 $ 4.00

2009 Gebrder Borntraeger, D-14129 Berlin D-70176 Stuttgart
32 M. Micu & D. Blteanu

MioceneQuaternary N-S compression (Hippolyte & Sndulescu 1996). Along with

their newest orographic chain, the Subcarpathians, which border them towards the exterior,
they represent two major units of the Carpathian orographic system, characterized by a com-
plex structure and rock-controlled morphology, marked by accentuated tectonic and seismic
mobility, an area severely aected by a wide variety of landslides and erosion processes.
Separated by the Teleajen River in the west and the Trotu River in the north (Fig. 1),
the region (8 841 km2) includes an inner mountainous sector (3 822 km2, represented by
the Buzu and the Vrancea Carpathians), bordered to the outside by a succession of parallel

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Fig. 1. Location map of the study-area.

 Landslide hazard assessment 33

hills and depressions (5 019 km2, Buzu and Vrancea Subcarpathians). The contact with the
Braov Depression is marked by 300350 m high tectonic scarps, while the contact with
the Romanian Plain consists of a row of at foothill surfaces of recent age.
The mountain sector at 1 3001 700 m elevation, is built of Cretaceous and Paleogene
ysch (sandstones, conglomerates, sandstones with clay and marly intercalations). Their
morphography outlines middle and low-altitude mountains with wide, rounded ridges,
separated by transversal valleys and large depressions. The Subcarpathians of 300 to 900 m
elevation are built of folded and intensely faulted Neogene molasse deposits (marls, clays,
sands, salt breccia, gravels, and loose sandstones with marly-clay intercalations). They form
two semi-continuous, almost parallel rows of medium-to-high rounded hills, separated by
internal depressions. Some of their morphometric features, such as 300500 m relative
relief, 38 km/km2 valley density, 1545 slopes, highlight the increased potential for mass-
movements to occur (Fig.2).

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Fig. 2. Deep-seated landslide (Groapa Vntului-Siriu) and mudow (Chirleti) in the Curvature
Carpathians.

In addition to the favourable lithology and structure, the neotectonic parameters (uplift
rates of 5 mm/year in the mountain sector and 34 m/year in the Subcarpathian hills
Zugrvescu et al. 1998) and seismic features make the area even more vulnerable to present-
day slope processes. The Vrancea seismic region, considered to be the most active sub-crustal
earthquake province of Europe, has 35 earthquakes over magnitude 7 per century. They
are characterized by an unusual persistence, within a limited and seismically isolated space
(a small dispersion of epicentres), reduced variations in hypocenter depth (90200 km) and
a NE-SW preferential propagation of seismic waves (Mrza & Pantea 1991).
Climate (solar radiation and general atmospheric circulation, in interaction with the
active surface) is of a moderate temperate hill and low-to-medium mountain type. The
Carpathian orographic barrier, alongside high foehn frequency, inuences the main distri-
bution, frequency and intensity parameters of climatic elements and phenomena. Precipita-
tion, as a major landslide-triggering factor, has a torrential character in summer (frequently
80100 l/m2 in 24 hours) often overlapping with the snowmelt of late spring. The yearly
34 M. Micu & D. Blteanu

amount of precipitation ranges from 550 mm at the outer border of the Subcarpathians
to 9001 000 mm in the highest mountains. Monthly values have a peak of 70150 mm
in June, dropping to 2540 mm (the lowest values), in February and March (Sandu &
Blteanu 2005). This is reected in the mean slope denudation values of 4.7 t/ha/year in
the mountains compared to over 13 t/ha/year in the Subcarpathian hills (Mooc 1983).
The favourable conditions of life, namely accessible relief, mild climate, the presence
of salt deposits, the mountain-plain contact propitious to intense trade relations, has long
allowed and encouraged the development of human activities. Presently, the average popu-
lation density of 90 inhabitants/km2 rises to 150 inhabitants/km2 along the main valleys
(Teleajen, Buzu, Slnic, Rmnicul Srat and Putna). The direct result of population in-
crease has been land degradation by overloading the slopes, changing the drainage pattern,
overgrazing actions encouraged by changes in land administration and ownership, espe-
cially after 1989. Taking a general look at the situation of the Buzu-Teleajen Subcarpath-
ians shows the population to be concentrated especially in the most landslide-prone areas
(Table 1).

Table 1. Settlement distribution in the studied area by altitude, slope and aspect.

Unit Altitude (m) Slopes (o) Aspect

< 400 400-600 >600 0-5 5-15 15-30 30-50 >50 N E S V
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% 62.6 36.2 1.2 39 57 4 0 0 8.6 6.9 43 41.4

Km2 51.6 29.8 1 32.1 46.9 3.3 0 0 7.7 7.1 35.1 34.1

The local signals of climate change are sustained by several aspects: a slight increasing
trend in annual mean temperatures, a decrease in precipitation and a tendency of rainfall
concentration over short time intervals along with increasing torrential character. The result
is enhanced slope instability, expansion of geomorphic processes, and a large number of
ash ood events in small catchments (Fig. 3). Such results are also sustained by the A1B
precipitation simulations within FP6 CLAVIER Project, for the Curvature Carpathian and
Subcarpathian case-study area1.
The landslides in the Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians cover a wide variety of
forms, induced by numerous causative, favouring and triggering factors. In the mountain
area, the Paleogene marly-clay-sandstone ysch complex is aected mainly by large-size,
deep-seated translational (sometimes rotational) slides, most of them present reactivations
of old, peri-glacial dormant landslides (Siriu Groapa Vntului). These landslides are char-
acterized by rich micro-morphology and a complexity of triggering factors. The hilly region

1
FP6 CLAVIER Project (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe),
WP 3b (Extreme events); www.clavier-eu.org.
 Landslide hazard assessment 35

Fig. 3. Slope and channel processes triggered by the July 28th, 2004 ash-ood (Nehoiu Catchment,
Curvature Carpathians).

of the Subcarpathians is aected by a wide variety of landslides, especially by shallow and

medium-seated translational slides, rotational slides and mudows, more numerous than
in the mountain area. The main triggering factors are heavy summer rainfalls and subse-
quently early spring showers.

3 Data and methodology

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More detailed investigations were conducted in the Vrancea seismic region starting with
the late 60s. They were focused on large-scale geomorphological mapping (1:10,000
1: 25,000), meant to outline landslide morphology and morphography (Badea & Posea
1953; Blteanu 1974, 1976, 1983). Later on, completing detailed mapping, several regional
studies covered a broader spectrum of research: the assessment of earthquake-induced land-
slides (Blteanu 1979), the correlation between land-use changes and landslide dynam-
ics (Muic & Blteanu 1995, Dinu & Cioac 1996), the correlation between rainfall
and landslide occurrence (Dinu & Cioac 1999), landslide distribution and classication
(Ielenicz 1970; Blteanu 1983, Constantin & Chendes 1997), landslide susceptibility
assessment in relation with morphodynamic mapping (Blteanu & Micu 2009) and nally
landslide vulnerability and risk analyses (Cioac et al. 1993; Blteanu et al. 1996; Dinu &
Cioac 1999; Constantin 2002). Even though several studies were devoted to risk assess-
ment, they skipped or missed a detailed assessment of landslide susceptibility and hazard.
Most of the studies were carried out at the Ptrlagele Research Station of the Institute
of Geography (Ptrlagele Natural Hazards Research Centre since 2008). Today, studies are
focusing on a dierent-scale landslide hazard assessment correlation, some of them being
in progress: process-based numerical simulations (Chirleti mud-ow, Micu 2008), small
catchment-scale susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment (Muscel Catchment, Blteanu &
Micu 2009), regional scale susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment (Buzu Subcarpathians,
Micu 2008) (Table 2).
36 M. Micu & D. Blteanu

Table 2. Landslide studies completed (dark grey) and in progress (bright grey) in the Vrancea Seismic
Region (based on Soeters & van Westen 1996).

Scale Qualitative Quantitative

Inventory Heuristic Statistic Probabilistic Process-based numerical simulation
< 10 000 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
10 000-100 000 Yes Yes Yes Yes Partially
100 000-500 000 Yes Yes Partially Partially No
> 500 000 Yes Yes No No No

A national assessment of landslide susceptibility was carried out by Blteanu et al. in

2009 (in press), using a semi-quantitative method, based on an expert judgment analysis.
The GIS assessment (ArcGIS 9.2) had in view several factors analysis: lithology, slope, maxi-
mum 24-hour precipitation, land-use, seismicity and relative relief.
In the Buzu Subcarpathians, a key area for understanding landslide behaviour, the assess-
ment of landslide susceptibility is based on a bivariate statistical method, i.e. joint condi-
tional probability function (Chung et al. 1995; Chung & Fabri 1999; Zezere 2004).
The method, used in Romania by andric (2005) and Blteanu & Micu (2009), is based
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on the assumption that the present-day relationship between landslides and each dierent
favourability parameter (each one having an initial probability and all together having a
joint conditional probability) may oer in the future similar landslide occurrence param-
eters. Several variables were taken into account (altitude, slope, aspect, geology and land
use; Table 3), based on multiple criteria: operational, complete, non-uniform, measurable
and non-redundant (Ayalew & Yamaghishi 2005). The database used in the assessment
consists of an inventory of 585 uniformly- distributed landslides (supercial and medium-
seated slides, almost all of them translational), mapped between 2001 and 2008, using
large-scale geomorphological mapping (1:10 000, 1:12 500) and aerial photography (2005,
50 cm/pixel) survey.

Table 3. Favourable factors and data sources.

Factor Source
Altitude STRM - DTM
Slope STRM - DTM
Aspect STRM- DTM
Land-use FAO - LCCS
Geology Geological map (1:100 000)
 Landslide hazard assessment 37

Due to an insucient data set, a hazard map has not been prepared yet, landslide hazard
assessment presently focuses on outlining the most landslide-prone intervals over the year
and on several rainfall triggering thresholds. To this end, the relevance of the Angot Pluvial
Index was assessed at a case-study level, highlighting the characteristics of the monthly and
annual precipitation quantities, grouped into several precipitation classes favourable for
triggering landslides (Blteanu & Micu 2009).

4 Results and discussion

The shallow slides represent the main type in the Subcarpathians. They occur mostly in late
spring or summer, the majority being translational, while rotational ones appear especially
due to river undercutting (lateral erosion) or in the areas with thin clay and marl lenses inside
thick sand or gravel formations (Upper Pliocene). They are rather small in size, with lengths
rarely over 100 m and widths of 2030 m, while the main scarps are up to 12 m in height.
The Carpathians and their contact with the Subcarpathians are the most favourable
regions for deep-seated landslide occurrence. They are rarer than shallow slides and usually
reactivations, aecting especially the slopes developed on an alternation of schistose and
marly formations with cohesive or schistose sandstones. They are characterized by deposits
more than 10 m thick, on 515 slopes, reaching more than 1000 m in length, wider than
100 m and main scarps up to 2030 m in height. When aecting an entire valley, they form
what in Romanian literature is known as valley landslides, very large surfaces aected
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especially by slides in combination with ows and falls.

The presence of large quantities of illite and montmorillonite leads to exceeding the
Atterberg liquid limit at 1060 % water content (Blteanu 1983), accounting for the
presence of numerous mud-ows, which aects steep slopes, mostly used as pastures. They
are typically 200300 m long (even up to 1.3 km, e.g. Chirleti mud-ow), usually less
than 50 m wide and with deluvium thickness of 56 m on average. The maximum inten-
sity period (marked by periodical pulsation) occurs in summer, recording velocities up to
100 m/hour (Blteanu 1983).

4.1 Susceptibility assessment

Generally speaking, due mostly to the presence of at areas (depressions), the Subcarpathians
have a larger area of very low susceptibility, while the Carpathians, because of larger areas
built on consolidated rocks, show smaller surfaces very much susceptible to sliding. The
mountainous structures developed on internal, Cretaceous ysch, include more cohesive
formations of conglomerates and sandstones, sometimes with marly intercalations, which
explains a dierential erosional relief. Along with the highest elevations, these formations
are characterized by very steep slopes (frequently 2530), which are less aected by land-
slides due to petrographic constraints. The slopes are covered mostly by forests (Picea sp.,
Abies sp., Fagus sp.), which oers an additional support. The situation changes towards the
exterior, the Paleogene ysch that forms the outer Carpathians is more favourable for land-
38 M. Micu & D. Blteanu

sliding. Susceptibility reaches its peak in the Subcarpathians, where the Mio-Pliocene mo-
lasse formations are strongly folded and faulted, while neotectonic movements permanently
stimulate the denudation through mass movements and erosion processes, also dierentiat-
ing the morphostructural features. The presence of very large areas covered with grasses and
pastures, subjected to human pressure, favours even more the occurrence of a wide range of
landslides, especially shallow translational (less so rotational) slides and mudows.
In this particular region, a case-study area of 650 km2, which included the Paleogene
ysch-Quaternary deposits geological sequence, was chosen to illustrate landslide suscepti-
bility. The landslide inventory shows surfaces ranging from 0.017 ha to 15.4 ha and a total
surface of 507 ha. Almost all landslides are translational, aecting the soil layer and the upper
regolith, the average thickness of displaced material being of 13 m.
The landslide distribution assessment (Table 4) showed their maximum concentra-
tion between 400600 m, corresponding to low-to-medium-high hills, especially on their
southern and western slopes (70 %), mostly in 515 sectors (74 %), predominantly used
as grasslands and pastures or old and mismanaged orchards, used now as grasslands or
pastures, with sparse bushes and trees. These features correspond mainly to marly-clay de-
posits and schistose sandstone formations of the Middle Miocene-Middle Pliocene molasse
formations.
The nal landslide susceptibility map is the outcome of a process involving several steps
(Zezere 2004):
 based on the entire data set, a non-classied susceptibility map was obtained, repre-
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senting future occurrence probabilities given by favourability values ranging from

0.00000 (low susceptibility) to 0.79423 (very high susceptibility),
 the initial data-set was randomly divided into two categories: estimation 243 ha,
48 % of all landslides and validation 264 ha, 52 % of all landslides,
 comparing a second landslide susceptibility map (based on the estimation set) with
the rst map (based on the entire dataset), and correlating the prole of prediction-
rate curve (based on landslides estimation-validation groups) (Fig. 4), ve suscepti-
bility classes have resulted, giving the nal (validated) susceptibility map (Fig. 5).
The susceptibility classes resulted were:
1. very high susceptibility: 27.1 % of the studied area, 72.3 % of validation group
landslides,
2. high susceptibility: 29.1 % of the studied area, 16.6 % of validation group landslides,
3. moderate susceptibility: 19.7 % of the studied area, 5.7 % of validation group
landslides,
4. low susceptibility: 20.6 % of the studied area, 3.3 % of validation group landslides,
5. very low susceptibility: 3.5 % of the studied area, 2.1 % of validation group land-
slides.
The values of 27.1, 56.2, 75.9, and 96.5 % are considered to be the limits of susceptibility
classes, while 72.3, 16.6, 5.7, 3.3 and 2.1 % represent rates of predicted future landslide
occurrence, based on the assumption that instability parameters will behave in the future in
the same way as they do at present.
 Landslide hazard assessment 39

Table 4. Favourability factors classes: weights and landslide weight for each class.

Variable Class Class Landslide

weight weight/class
Slope 0-5o 15 3
5-15 o 61 74
o
15-30 21 22
o
30-50 3 1
Aspect N 13 15
E 13 16
S 36 32
V 38 37
Geology Gravels, sands, clay-sands (Upper Holocene) 9 0
Gravels, sands, loess (Middle-Upper Pleistocene) 2 0
Gravels, sands, clays (Lower Pleistocene) 1 14
Sands, sandy-clays (Upper Pliocene-Lower Pleistocene) 17 0
Sandstones, marls, sandy marls (Middle Pliocene) 3 11
Sandstones, marls, sandy marls (Middle Pliocene) 8 18
Sandstones, marls, cinerites (Lower Pliocene) 11 11
Sandstones, marls, schistose clays (Upper Miocene) 7 10
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Sandstones, tus, schistose clays (Middle Miocene) 7 13

Sandstones, schists, gypsum (Middle Miocene) 11 2
Schists, gypsum, glauconitic sandstones (Lower Miocene) 1 13
Sandstone ysch with schistose intercalations (Lower Oligocene) 15 0
Schistose sandstone ysch (Upper Eocene) 1 5
Schistose ysch with sandstones and limestone (Eocene) 6 3
Land-use Settlements 13 4
Forests 37 13
Vineyards and orchards 8 19
Pastures and grasslands 2 47
Mixed (association of mismanaged orchards with pastures 41 17
and grasslands)
Altitude Under 300 14 0
(m) 300-400 25 6
400-500 27 29
500-600 20 33
600-700 9 22
70-800 3 8
800-900 2 2
900-1000 1 0
40 M. Micu & D. Blteanu

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Fig. 4. Landslide estimation and validation groups and the prediction-rate curve of the susceptibility
assessment.
 Landslide hazard assessment 41

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Fig. 5. Landslide susceptibility map in the Buzu-Teleajen Subcarpathians.

42 M. Micu & D. Blteanu

4.2 Hazard assessment

4.2.1 Shallow slides triggering factors
For an assessment of shallow slides hazard, a small catchment case-study allowed for several
correlations to be made between landslide occurrence and the rainfall pattern.
A case study is represented by the Muscel Catchment, a typical contact catchment, with
a higher sector carved in Paleogene ysch, a median sector corresponding to Neogene molasse
and a lower one developed on Quaternary terrace deposits. Landslide susceptibility assess-
ment, based on bivariate statistical analysis (Blteanu & Micu 2009), has shown that large
areas are included in the high-to-very high susceptibility classes. At the same time, comparing
the Angot Pluvial Index classes recorded at the Ptrlagele Weather Station (in the immedi-
ate vicinity) with the landslides occurred in 2005 enabled several correlations with land-
slide-triggering rainfall thresholds, both monthly and daily.
The nal result allowed the delineation of the landslide occurrence favourability interval
in terms of monthly precipitation values, by means of Angot Pluvial Index values (Dragot
et al. 2008; Blteanu & Micu 2009).
This index, used in Romania for this purpose only in the mentioned area (Dragot et al.
2008) helps outlining monthly and annual precipitation quantities, grouped into dierent
landslide-triggering precipitation favorability classes.
The Index is calculated based on the formula:
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K= p/P (1)
Where
p = q/n (2)
q monthly quantity of precipitation; n number of days/month;
P = Q/365 (3)
Q multi-annual quantity of precipitation.
The obtained values allow for the separation of very-dry-to-very-rainy time sequences,
grouped into dierent classes (Table 5).

Table 5. Classes of landslides-triggering precipitation based on Angot Pluvial Index attributes.

Pluviometric Very dry Dry Normal Rainy Very rainy

attributes
Favourability Very low Low Moderate High Very high
classes

Angot Index <0.99 1.00-1.49 1.50-1.99 2.00-2.49 >2.50

values (K)
 Landslide hazard assessment 43

The lower favourability classes (K values under 0.99) outline slope stability conditions,
based on pluvial decit, while the upper favourability classes (K > 22.50) highlight condi-
tions prone to dynamic slope processes induced by excess rainfall. Conventionally, moderate
favourability classes are related to precipitation uctuating around multi-annual average
values.
The results show that the most favourable interval for precipitation-triggering land-
slides is MaySeptember. At least two years conrmed this statement, i.e. 1975 and 2005.
In 1975, the Angot Index values were above 2.8 in MaySeptember (5.34 in August and
9.00 in July), and in 2005, they exceeded 2.5 in February and MaySeptember. In 2005,
May, July, September and October recorded precipitation over 130 mm, while February
registered only 100 mm, overlapping snowmelt. In both years, those particular intervals
where characterized by landslide occurrence, and their mapping in 2005 allowed some
rst correlations with certain rainfall-triggering thresholds. Shallow and medium-seated
slides occurred within the following intervals: 2123.02, 612.05, 78.06, 1216.07 and
1921.08, being mostly reactivations of larger, dormant landslides and measuring between
0.31.5 ha (Fig. 6). Their occurrence relates to some common pluvial values:
 >25 mm in 24 hours,
 50100 mm, cumulated over 13 consecutive days,
 36122 mm, cumulated within 10 days prior to landslide occurrence, which was
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considered signicant for soil oversaturation.

Fig. 6. The correlation of the 2005 rainfall-triggered landslides with the Angot Index-based favour-
ability classes (Ptrlagele Weather Station)
44 M. Micu & D. Blteanu

4.2.2 Deep-seated landslide triggering factors

Deep-seated landslide hazard assessment proved to be even more dicult, because these
slides occur mainly in remote mountain areas, so that their direct or immediate observa-
tions are hardly feasible. Yet, several casestudies provided vital information concerning the
triggering factor in such a situation.
The occurrence of deep-seated landslides must be related to the climate of the Buzu and
the Vrancea Mountains, namely temperate-continental with annual average precipitation
amounts of 750800 mm, varying greatly due to topographic features and being dominantly
torrential. For example, the 20042006 interval registered ve periods of excess rainfall,
maximum quantities exceeding locally 150200 mm/month, reactivating many landslides
and triggering ood waves. As an illustration, on July 28, 2004, rains of 52 l/m2 fallen within
three hours unleashed a ashood in the Nehoiu catchment, that aected 300 households,
destroyed 5 cars, 200 m of railway lines, 3 concrete bridges and three wooden bridges.
Another important cause of deep-seated landslide occurrence is represented by earth-
quakes. The seismic movements reactivated fault-lines, created landslides and mudvolcanoes,
enhanced piping processes (especially on salt-breccia formations), sand liquefaction and
changes in groundwater level and distribution. Such phenomena were studied by Blteanu
(1979, 1983, 1999), emphasizing the role of March 4, 1977 earthquake (7.2 magnitude).
The eld observation carried out immediately after the event outlined displaced volumes of
10360 m3 due to rock-falls (Porcreaa Catchment) and 30 000200 000 m3 due to deep-
seated slides, a rather small volume due to the dry a-priori conditions (931 mm/month
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mean precipitation values in January and February 1977).

The Siriu (Groapa Vntului) landslide (42 ha, 2030 m-thick deluvium), situated in the
Paleogene ysch mountainous area, extended on the western slope of the Siriu Lake, north
of its conuence with the Siriu stream, represents a reactivation of a dormant landslide. The
rst sector of the landslide was dislodged in MarchMay 2006, but the rst local movements
(elongated cracks and oversaturated areas), outlining the later main scarp, were signalled
in SeptemberOctober 2005. The movement ended in JulyAugust, after completely im-
pounding the Siriu Lake. The landslides geomorphic framework should be related to the
absence in the immediate neighbourhood of a rainfall measuring device, and the presence
of numerous local torrential precipitations, induced by the general characteristics of the
active surface.
The Mordana landslide (6 ha, 510 m-thick deluvium), developed at the very con-
tact between the Neogene molasse and the Paleogene ysch deposits, in Bsca Chiojdului
Catchment, had a similar occurrence pattern. The rst major movements were registered in
March 2000, but before that, the heavy rainfalls of August 1999 (unfortunately, again not
recorded), produced the rst cracks in the upper sector.
Similar phenomena in the Buzu Mountains were described in the literature (Ielenicz
1984), and they all show similar patterns: they are slow-moving processes, extending over
a 24 months interval, the triggering events are usually complex, involving intense summer
rainfalls and spring showers combined with snowmelt, lasting in most of the cases over
two-three seasons.
 Landslide hazard assessment 45

5 Conclusions
The studied region presents an increased potential for landslide occurrence, as a result of
multiple natural and human-induced favouring factors.
Supercial slides, typical of the Subcarpathians, characterized mostly by translational
movements, involve a local transport of material along the slopes, which shapes a wide
variety of forms; the movement usually stops after the triggering event has ended (early
spring showers overlapping snowmelt, summer rainfalls). The deep-seated landslides, with
lower frequency but higher magnitude, are usually part of a rather general reactivation pro-
cess in the Carpathians and along their contact with the Subcarpathians. In this way, they
provide good opportunities for the morphodynamic understanding of very old, some even
periglacial landslides, today almost completely covered by forests. The aected surfaces (up
to tens of hectares), the huge displaced volumes (up to millions of cubic meters), and the
cooperation of numerous favouring, preparing and triggering factors, impose them as major
present-day modeling processes, with signicant potential impact on human activities. The
occurrence of such phenomena usually spreads along several months, and is associated
mainly with extreme conditions such as long and successive rainy periods.
Landslide susceptibility assessment has shown the increased threat posed by these phe-
nomena, illustrated by very large areas of high-very high susceptibility. Also, 4 % of the settle-
ments in the studied Subcarpathian region are directly aected by sliding, which makes
such studies to have even great applicability, in an area confronted with a lot of constrains
and economic problems. eschweizerbartxxx ingenta

The Angot Pluvial Index may oer important clues for landslide hazard assessment by
highlighting dierences in the monthly variation of precipitation quantities, faithfully indi-
cating the rain excess/decit peaks involved in landslide dynamics. The study conducted
in the Muscel Catchment has revealed that the pluvial interval in which landslides are
likely to occur is MaySeptember, and meanwhile the impact of excess rain fallen in other
periods is quite incidental. Low precipitation favourability in terms of landslide occurrence
characterizes the DecemberMarch interval, featuring frozen soil and solid precipitation
mostly, or transitional months like OctoberNovember and April, marked by very frequent
freeze-thaw cycles (inducing soliuction and shallow slides). Against this background, the
practical application of the Angot Index values make it useful in outlining the causality
relationship between climatic and landslide events.

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Address of the authors:

Mihai Micu and Dan Blteanu, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, 12, Dimitrie Racovita
St., Bucharest, Romania.

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