CAPTURE-MARK-RELEASE-RECAPTURE

Estimating the size of an animal population using the Lincoln Index

Read the following text:

Some zoologists carried out a study to estimate the mouse population in a field. Small mammal traps
were used and 200 mice were captured. These mice were tagged with a metal number and then
released. The tagged mice were then free to mix with the rest of the population. A week later 120 mice
were captured from the same area. Of these mice, 12 were found to be carrying a metal tag, and were
from the capture made the previous week.

The zoologists used the following formula to estimate the total population of mice in the field:
n1 x n2
Population size = ----------
n3

where: n1 = number of individuals initially caught, marked and released

n2 = total number of individuals caught in the second sample
n3 = number of marked individuals in the second sample

The zoologists estimated the population size to be 2000.

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You have a bag of beans! Your job is to estimate the size of the bean population ie how many beans
there are in the bag - without counting them all. This is what you do:
1. Capture a number of beans say 50;
2. Mark these beans with acrylic paint or liquid paper;
3. Release the beans by returning them to the bag and mix them thoroughly with the remaining
beans;
4. Capture a number of beans again maybe about the same number as before;
5. Of these newly captured beans, some will be marked and some will not be marked. Use the
calculation described above to estimate how many beans are in the population in the bag.