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A statistical overview of sand demand in Asia

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A statistical overview of sand demand in Asia
and Europe.

Kowshik Chilamkurthy, A.V. Marckson, Siva Teja Chopperla, Manu Santhanam

Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, India.

Globally, about 53 billion tons of material is mined every year. Mining of sand and gravel account for the largest
volume of solid material extracted globally. Sand and gravel represent the highest volume of raw material used on
earth after water. Their usage greatly exceeds natural renewal rates, which has been resulted by the erosive
processes over thousands of years; they are now being extracted at a rate far greater than their renewal.
Moreover, the volume being extracted is having a major impact on construction industries and ecosystem. The
absence of global monitoring of sand excavation contributes to this situation and it's the one way to reduce
consumption of sand is to optimize the use of substitutes to sand in construction industries. This statistical overview
mainly aims to admonish countries to use substitutes by giving a brief statistical analysis of sand production in the
countries of Asia and Europe. This paper mainly sheds its light on future global sand productions. The
implementation of monitoring algorithm regarding global sand production gives a brief idea on the usage of these
replacement materials which compensates the prevailing sand production. The replacement materials might not be
economically efficient and on the other the side exponential usage of sand is not ecologically efficient, in these
archaic situations, this paper aims to find an optimized solution which balances both economy and ecology. This
overview also aims to give a pictorial of the statistical data about the sand production of each country in the
continents of Asia and Europe and future predictions of the sand productions is approximated by machine learning
software, which might also raise this issue on the political agenda and perhaps lead to an international framework
to improve extraction governance.
1 Introduction without a significant impact on the environment (Sonak
et al., 2006, Kondolf, 1994). Sand is not only a
Environmental problems occur when the rate of
precious mineral, but also protecting the environment,
extraction of naturally available commodities exceeds
buffer against strong tidal waves and storm, habitat for
the rate at which natural processes generate this
crustacean species and marine organisms, used for
commodity. The environmental effects may vary from
making concrete, filling the roads, building sites, brick-
affecting a small community to world crisis. In this
making, making glass, sandpapers, reclamations
paper, we would like to unveil the present situation of
(Saviour, 2000). Sand mining is of great importance to
sand especially the river sand. River sand is produced
the country's economy, sand mining provides
by the weathering/abrasion of the gravel bed and also
employment opportunities to a considerable section of
it is one of the most used and economically available
the labour force (UNEP GEAS). It should, however, be
natural building material. Most of the river sand
recognized that the processes of prospecting,
dredged from the river beds is used in the construction
extracting, concentrating, refining and transporting
sector and one of the key components of concrete
minerals have great potential for disrupting the natural
(Kondolf, 1997, Zhang et al., 2006). However, desert
environment. The morphologies of the mining areas
sand, which seems to stretch across the globe forever,
have demonstrated the impact of mining with the
does not serve this purpose due to its consistency and
prowess to destroy the cycle of ecosystems. The sand
chemical properties. This is mainly due to its lack of
mining resulted in irreversible damage to river
silicon dioxide compounds and the fact that desert
systems.
sand is too fine and smooth, containing too much clay,
iron oxides and lime (Delestrac, 2013). Sand mining is A lack of proper scientific methodology for river sand
the process of removal of sand and gravel where this mining has led to indiscriminate sand mining (John,
practice is becoming an environmental issue as the 2009), while weak governance and corruption have led
demand for sand increases in industry and to widespread illegal mining (Saviour, 2012; Ashraf et
construction (Mossa and McLean, 1997). This large al., 2011). Now, it is essential for governments of the
quantity of material cannot be extracted and used respective countries to monitor river sand mining

activities to take care of these emerging environmental
issues which ultimately affect the sustainability of the
country. In most of the countries, the major problem is
illegal sand mining (Milton, C., 2010) for example India
(Ghosh, 2012). The number of illegal sand mining
dredges as well as extracted sand volume has soared
year after year. Except in the European Union,
regulation efforts are few, especially in developing
countries (Sreebha and Padmalal, 2011). Lack of
monitoring systems, regulatory policies and
environmental impact assessments have led to
indiscriminate mining, triggering severe damage to the
environment and related ecosystem services. It is
necessary that a strategy that can balance the current
demand and the emerging environmental issues
related to sand mining needs to be worked out.
In this paper, we analyze the patterns of river sand
usages across the country over the past decade by
considering some valid assumption. By implementing
algorithms, we will relate the total amount of sand
dredged annually and indexes of country (Shafiee and
Topal 2008). The emerging solution to this river sand
problem is usage of replacement materials which is
quiet uneconomical as far as country revenues are
concerned, so it is essential to obtain one optimized
solution to this problem which balances both
environmental problems and economic depressions.
Keeping this as our primary agenda, sand production
data of 38 countries in Asia and Europe was collected.
The construction industry makes significant
contributions to the socioeconomic development
process in most countries (Chan Lee, 2010; Jamilus
Md Hussin, 2013). By using this previous data, it is
possible to find out the contributions of each
socioeconomic factors (Chiang,2015) like total
population, GDP (Raymond, 2010), urbanization, GDP
(%construction sector) to the total sand that was
dredged by the countries and this ultimately helps us to
find the trends in sand consumptions and future usage
of sand for every country.
The environmental impact of in-stream mining might be
avoided if the annual bed load is calculated and the
mining of aggregates restricted to that value or less
(Ashraf et al., 2011), but this process might be very
difficult to carry out because of the unavailability of
scientific procedures and data on illegal sand mining.
So to avoid this problem, the maximum amount of
sand that a country can dredge without affecting the
CTMC 2016
environment can be predicted by analyzing the
previous data.
Key Terms:
Gradient Boosting Regressor, Future sand
consumption predictions, socioeconomic Indices,
Feature importance, Future cement productions,
Substitutes to sand.
2 Assumptions:
Most of the cement produced by the nations is
used for preparing concrete. The cement used
for preparing mortar and other materials is
neglected.
Surprisingly, although more sand and gravel
are mined than any other material, reliable
data on their extraction in certain developed
countries are available only for recent years
(Krausmann et al., 2009). So to overcome this
problem, the total sand required to prepare
concrete using 1 unit of cement is 2 units. This
assumption is validated by adopting the
average mix design.
The total cement produced by a nation is used
for their own usages, the exports and imports
of cement are neglected.
Usage of substitutes for sand is not considered
in this paper, all the sand related data
mentioned in this context is the data of sand
that dredged from the earth.
A non-linear regression (Gradient Boosting
Regression) is used for prediction and data
analysis.
The consumption of sand of a country
depends on factors like GDP (%construction
sector), GDP growth, country size,
urbanization, total population, country energy
usage by country.
The algorithm may predict different values in
some of the cases because of over fitting of
the data, to avoid this confusion the average of
all the values predicted is considered
Factors and features both mean the set of
socio economic factors we assumed to be
effecting the sand consumptions (GDP
CTMC 2016
(%construction sector), GDP growth, country
size, urbanization, total population (OUCHI)
and energy usage by country) throughout this
paper.
The factors except the size and population are
same for Taiwan and China
Note: All the assumptions are valid throughout this
paper until and unless a deviation from these
assumptions are mentioned.
3 Algorithm modelling Strategies:
3.1 Basic plot:
The sand dredged from the earth is mostly used by
the nations construction sector for building
infrastructure and buildings. Since sand is one of the
most naturally available commodities, the exports and
imports of natural sand is not very common. The mode
of construction varies for each country and so the
usage of naturally available building materials also
varies for each country. Practically, the consumption
of natural resources of a country can be reflected by
many socioeconomic indexes. In this particular paper,
we assume that the consumption of sand by a country
can depend on many factors like GDP (%construction
sector), GDP growth, country size, urbanization, total
population, country energy usage by country. Each
factor will affect the future of sand consumptions of a
particular country .The contribution of each factor to
the consumptions can be known by using non-linear
regression analysis. The forecasts for these
socioeconomic index are known for each country,
which enables us to find the future consumptions of
sand.
3.2 Regression:
Every factor mentioned above will contribute to the
countrys sand consumption, for example more the
urban population in a country requires more the
infrastructure and buildings to accommodate people.
But the importance of their contributions to the
countrys annual sand consumptions is not known.
There may be a pattern exists for this whole scenario,
but mathematically it is impossible to pin it down to find
a higher dimensional polynomial or the differential
equation whatever it may be. So to find the existing
pattern, the non-linear regression comes into action, a
well-known set of Machine Leaning algorithms. This
Machine Learning algorithm reverse-engineers the
whole process and predict the pattern, and also
predicts the importance of each assumed factor which
contribute to the countrys annual sand consumption
by learning the past data available.
All the data is collected from U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) and USGS Minerals. The data
also includes the total annual cement productions,
GDP (%construction sector), GDP growth, country
size, urbanization, total population, energy usage in 39
countries in Asia and Europe.
3.3 Non Linear Regression (Gradient Boosting):
Several analytical and numeral algorithms are
available for prediction and for regression. Some of
these algorithms adopt linear-modelling for regression,
but for the collected data which is of very high
dimensionality, a linear model cannot be an efficient
model since we cant assume the linear variation of
each factor in contributing to annual sand production
and moreover linear model algorithms assumes the
independence of the factors or features used for the
regression which is not a valid assumption in this case.
For the analysis, a nonlinear regression called
Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) (Friedman, 2001)
is used. GBR uses an ensemble type of approach
which relies on combining a large number of relatively
weak simple prediction decision tree models to obtain
a stronger prediction models (Bremen et al., 1984).
The reason for selecting Gradient Boosting Regression
among many ensemble approach algorithms is to train
a new weak model, base learner with respect to the
error of the whole ensemble model learnt so far, at
each iteration.
At each iteration a new weak model, base learner is
trained with respect to the error of the whole ensemble
model learnt so far (Schapire, 2002), or simply, the
learning procedure consecutively fits new models to
provide a more accurate estimate of the response
feature (Schapire, 2003).
 CTMC 2016

(Sand consumption offset) < Threshold

By using the linear classification called ridge classifier,
we can find the threshold. For example, In the case of
china the environment problems raised in between the
years 2008 and 2009. By tagging the data before 2008
and data after 2009 as 0 and 1 respectively, the
algorithm can find the best fit that distinguishes these
two data sets which is the value that alarms the
country, the threshold can be found by subtracting
consumption offset.

Particularly if there are any strong interactions in the

data or predictors are strongly correlated, they provide
a useful basis for interpretation (Friedman
2001; Friedman & Meulman 2003).

The most important concern about building a machine-

learning model from data is the resulting model's
generalization capabilities. If the learning Gradient
Boosting Regression algorithm is not applied properly,
the model can easily over fit the data (Hastie et al.
2001). So respective parametric tuning is done for this
algorithm.
The mathematical formulation of this Ridge classifier is
The mathematical formulation of this Gradient Boosting beyond the scope this paper.
Regression is beyond the scope this paper.

3.4 Classification algorithm: 4 Algorithm Final Outcomes:

Classification algorithm is used to find the threshold 1) The importance of each factor towards
value i.e. maximum amount of sand a country can contributing to the annual sand consumptions,
dredge without effecting the environment (John, 2009). overall:
The mining of aggregates can be restricted to the
After analyzing the available information using
threshold value or less (Ashraf et al., 2011). By
the GBR algorithm, we can predict and rank
assuming that the country with monotonically increase
the importance of each factor towards
in sand consumptions crosses its threshold at some
contributing to the annual sand consumptions
period of time. For example chinas sand
(Miller 1990). So we can actually figure out the
consumptions crosses its threshold in between the
most effective factor which we assumed is
year 2008 to 2009, in this period of time, the country
contributing the most to the annual sand
alarms on the issue of sand mining with some offset,
consumption in Asia and Europe. The relative
that is, it takes some time for a country to realize the
influence (or contribution) of each variable is
archaic situation. But the time offset cannot be
scaled so that the sum adds to 100, with
incorporated in this algorithm, so to avoid this problem,
higher numbers indicating stronger influence
it is valid to take consumption offset, that it country
on the response.
realizes the archaic situation after it loses some
amount of sand, which is not renewed naturally. The 2) The importance of each factor which affects
period of time where the sand consumption of a their own annual sand consumption throughout
country crosses its threshold can be found by citing the the years, nationwide
number of news articles on sand dredging and
social/political issues.
CTMC 2016
By analyzing the data of a single nation over
the years, we can anticipate the importance
(Miller 1990) of each factor that contributed to
the nations annual sand consumption. This
outcome varies from country to country
because each country has unique trends in
development. This may look similar to the
above outcome, but these two outcomes give
entirely two different perceptions. For example,
if we look at the size of a country, the
importance of the size factor towards nations'
sand consumption is 0 because the size of
the country doesnt change with time. But the
importance of size factor worldwide is not zero
because different countries have different
sizes.
3) Future sand consumptions
By studying the past data of all nations in Asia
and Europe, we can predict the future
consumptions of each country.
By keeping the mentioned constraints in mind and to
give following outcomes mentioned above, an
algorithm is modelled and implemented by using
Python language, Sklearn, Numpy, Scipy.
4.1 Application of Implemented Algorithm to all
Countries:
While stating the assumptions, all the factors are
just assumed to be affecting the annual sand
consumptions, but the importance of each factor that
contributes to the nations sand consumption are
unknown, after a detailed study, the importance of
each factor is predicted by using the implemented
algorithm.
This paper discusses about the past scenario of over
39 countries from Asia and Europe, but specifically
only 7 countries are focused in detail, which were
acknowledged as top consumers of sand in both the
continents. However all the data of 39 countries is
used for training the model.
After studying the data of all 39 countries over past 2
decades, the importance of each factor contributing
towards the national annual consumption of sand in
both Asia and Europe is found.
Table 1 Factor Importance Table
Factor Importance
GDP from construction 4.71
GDP growth 1.77
Urban population percentage 8.71
Urban population 41.9
Urban population Growth 8.83
Energy consumption 11.32
Size of country 8.83
Population 14.17
From the above table, it is clear that urban population
factor is highly contributing. So urban population is the
one of most important factors that affect the annual
sand consumption in the countries of Asia and Europe.
This is because most of the countries, which are
analyzed are developing states. As it is obvious that
urbanization is very eminent in the developing nations
like India, Pakistan, China, etc. Because of this drastic
urbanization, countries need to build more and more
buildings to accommodate people, which ultimately
require dredging huge amounts of naturally available
building material resources.
Urban population growth and urban population
percentage also comes under the urbanization factor.
The importance of urban population percentage is
relatively lower because the population of each country
itself is varying.
It is worth mentioning that this analysis is meant for all
39 countries in the continents of Asia and Europe. If
we do the same analysis for each country, urban
population factor may not be the most important factor
that contributed to their own sand consumption
annually because the trends within each country vary
and so each factor contributes differently.
So if all the countries in Europe and Asia can regulate
their urbanization, simultaneously they can also
regulate the sand consumption as a whole.
The next most important factor that contributed to the
annual sand consumption in the countries of Asia and
Europe is population factor. It is obvious that if country
has more population, country need to build more
infrastructure to manage its total population so it need
to dredge more naturally available resources.
Energy consumption is the highest among developed
nations. Empirically there is a positive relation between
energy use and economic growth (Shafiee and Topal
 CTMC 2016

2008, Smil 2008, Payne 2010), so there will be a each factor towards nations sand consumptions are as
positive relation between annual sand consumptions follows
and energy consumption per captia. The importance is
relatively high comparing to the other factors assumed.

4.2 Factor Importance

Construction is a major industry throughout the

world accounting for a sizeable proportion of most
countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Roger
Hosien, 2007) and Gross National Product (GNP),
(Sitsabo Dlamin, UK). So GDP is also one of the
important factors that contributes to the sand
consumptions as it is suggested by the factor
importance Table (Tab-1). The most important factor is Energy consumption
followed by urban population and population (Lie Shen,
5 Analysis on Each Country in Detail: 2010). It is worth noting that the importance to the size
of country factor is nil, it is because the size of the
Its time to look at each country in detail by running
country doesnt change with time.
the same analysis, the future sand consumptions of
each country and importance of each factor can be So from the above prediction made, it is obvious that, if
predicted using the implemented algorithm. Only 7 china can regulate its energy consumption,
countries which were recognized as the top consumers urbanization and population, it can indirectly regulate
of sand are explained in this article. the nations annual sand consumptions.

5.1 China: By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the

sand consumption can be predicted by assuming that
During the past 15 years, China's economy and
China alarms in the year 2011, when over 500
consumption have grown rapidly (David Menzie, 2004).
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
China is recognized as the highest consumer of the
naturally renewed without government concern.
cement commodity so it also requires sand to build its
infrastructure. China used more cement between 2011
and 2013 than the USA used in entire 20th century. By
running the implemented algorithm, the importance of
CTMC 2016

Table 2 the anticipated values of each factor: By running the algorithm implemented, the importance
CHINA of each factor towards nations sand consumptions are
Factor 2015 2016 as follows
GDP from 50.5 % 52 %
construction
GDP GROWTH 7 6.9
Urban 56.6 % 57.9 %
Population
Percentage
Urban 779,478,624 799,964,410
population
Urban 2.68 2.45
population
Growth
Energy 3741 3802
consumption
SIZE of country 9388230 9388230
Population 1,376,048,943 1,382,323,332

There is a decline in the sand consumption, this is

apparently because of our assumptions that imports
and exports are neglected and also may be due to
reducing consumptions of energy by China in the year
of 2015 and 2016 (Malin Song,2011).
So from the above graph it is clear that china need to
regulate its sand consumptions and go for sand
substitutes to avoid ecological problem. The amounts
of substitutes should be used are as follows.
1) China sand consumption 2015 = 4559824.98
Thousand metric tons

2) China sand consumption 2016 = 4647231.96

Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption = The most important factor that contributed to Indias
4138500 Thousand metric tons sand consumption is urban population factor followed
by energy consumption and urban population
4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 431234 percentage. So if Indian government can regulate its
Thousand metric tons energy usages and urbanization, theoretically, it can
regulate its construction sand usage
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 508731
By running classification algorithm, the threshold of
Thousand metric tons
the sand consumption can be predicted by assuming
5.2 India that India alarms in the year 2011, when over 50
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
The Indian cement industry has evolved naturally renewed without government concern.
significantly in the last two decades. In India, the
cement industry is the second most consumed material
on the planet. India has contributed almost 8 per cent
to Indias economic development, the demand for
cement is on an upward trend, further addition to
capacity is coming up to cater to the increasing
demand for cements (Manjula devi,2015)
 CTMC 2016

Table 3 the anticipated values of each factor: implemented, the importance of each factor towards
INDIA nations sand consumptions are as follows
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 33 34.2
construction
GDP_GROWTH 7.9 8.0
Urban 32 32.4
Population
Percentage
Urban 419938867 429802441
population
Urban 2.61 1.5
population
Growth
Energy 810 850
consumption
SIZE of country 2973790 2973790
Population 1311050527 1326801576

From the above graph there is a drastic increase in the

consumptions of sand from 2014 to 2015 and 2016.
For developing nations like India, government needs to
dredge huge amounts of sand to build its
infrastructure. India needs to rapidly act against the
sand mining, according to our predicted values; India is
using more than double the threshold values.

1) India sand consumption 2015 = 852111.38

Thousand metric tons

2) India sand consumption 2016 = 936440.95

Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption = The most important factor that contributed to
478950 Thousand metric tons Russias sand consumption is by energy consumption
4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 373161 followed Urban population and GDP from construction.
Thousand metric tons So if Russian government can regulate its energy
usages and urbanization, theoretically, it can regulate
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 457490 its construction sand usage
Thousand metric tons
By running classification algorithm, the threshold of
5.3 Russia the sand consumption can be predicted by assuming
that Russia alarms in the year 2009, when over 50
Russia reached a record-high level of cement
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
consumption. Analysts expect demand to grow
naturally renewed without government concern.
significantly by 2020 amid the modernization of the
Russia (E-Y cement industry). Russia economic power
and its cement markets are showing a sustained
growth of around nine to ten per cent. Most of the
cement is produced domestically with wet-process
technology, but as the market expands, changes are
afoot (Cem-net). By running the algorithm
CTMC 2016

Table 4 the anticipated values of each factor:

RUSSIA
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 41.3 43.3
construction
GDP_GROWTH -2.7 0.7
Urban Population 73.3 73.2
Percentage
Urban population 105163529 105163529
Urban population 0.18 -0.14
Growth
Energy 6900 7200
consumption
SIZE of country 16377960 16377960
Population 143456918 143439832

There is a decrease in usage of sand, this is due to

decrease in urbanization, which is one of the most
important factor that contributes to the sand
consumptions. From the predictions it is clear that both
the annual sand consumption of 2015 and 2016 are
within the threshold value.

1) Russias sand consumption 2015 = 112372.25

Thousand metric tons

2) Russias sand consumption 2016 = 104068.40

Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption =

115950 Thousand metric tons
4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 0
Thousand metric tons
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 0
Thousand metric tons
5.4 Japan
Japan, decades since have witnessed the relented
pursuit of technological development, economic growth
as a construction basic materials industry and other
steady expansion and progress. Today, the sector
ranks as a world leader in terms of production, quality,
energy-saving technology, labor productivity, industrial
waste and by-product technological initiatives and on
other fronts. By running the algorithm implemented, the
importance of each factor towards nations sand
consumptions are as follows:
The most important factor that contributed to Japans
sand consumption is by urban population followed
urban population percentage and GDP from
construction. So if Japanese government can regulate
its GDP from construction sector and urbanization,
theoretically, it can regulate its construction sand
usage. There is a decrease in usage of sand, this is
due to decrease in urbanization, which is one of the
most important factor that contributes to the sand
consumptions. By running classification algorithm, the
threshold of the sand consumption cannot be predicted
by the algorithm implemented, this is because the
values are non- monotonic which inhibits algorithm to
predict the threshold value of the annual sand
consumption.
 CTMC 2016

Table 5 the anticipated values of each factor:

JAPAN
Factor Importance
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 27.2 28 Thailand Urban population
growth
construction Urban population
GDP_GROWTH 1.1 1.7 10.0% 8.1%
Urban Population 93.7 94.1 0.0% Urban population
10.6%
Percentage 10.4% percentage
Urban population 118572468 118911665 GDP growth
Urban population 0.45 0.42 11.1%
GDP from
Growth construction
Energy 7900 8100 Population
31.6%
consumption 18.2%
SIZE of country 364500 364500 Size of the
country
Population 126573481 126323715

1) Japans sand consumption 2015 = 107648.78

Thousand metric tons
2) Japans sand consumption 2016 = 116584.99
Thousand metric tons

5.5 Thailand
Thailands cement industry was buoyed by the
countrys pro-economic growth policies and
government sponsored infrastructure investments in
2012. Cement consumption grew by a healthy 16% y/y
in 3Q12. A forecast 5% increase in GDP will help lift
cement demand in 2013 as the economy picks up
again. With massive infrastructure projects in the
construction output is expected to grow on average by
4.7% through 2020, according to the countrys
construction Ministry. The algorithm which we
implemented have some over fitting in the case of
Thailands annual sand consumption future prediction,
so to avoid this over fitting the algorithm is tunes
accordingly. By running the edited algorithm
implemented, the importance of each factor towards
nations sand consumptions are as
follows:
The most important factor that contributed to
Thailands sand consumption is GDP from
construction, followed GDP growth and urban
population percentage. So if Thailand government can
regulate its GDP from construction and urbanization,
theoretically, it can regulate its construction sand
usage
By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the
sand consumption can be predicted by assuming that
Thailand alarms in the year 2008, when over 50
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
naturally renewed without government concern.
CTMC 2016

Table 6 the anticipated values of each factor:

THAILAND
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 38 39.2
construction
GDP_GROWTH 3.5 4.0
Urban Population 50 51.1
Percentage
Urban population 33952234 34810313
Urban population 2.44 2.2
Growth
Energy 2800 3000
consumption
SIZE of country 510890 510890
Population 67959359 68146609

There is an increase in usage of consumption, this is

due to increase in the GDP growth of the country and
the growth in urbanization.

1) Thailands sand consumption 2015 = 81496.25

Thousand metric tons

2) Thailands sand consumption 2016 = 85788.22

Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption =

76950 Thousand metric tons.

4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 4546

Thousand metric tons The most important factor that contributed to
Germanys sand consumption is urban population,
5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 8838 followed GDP from construction and population. So if
Thousand metric tons German government can regulate its GDP from
construction and urbanization, theoretically, it can
regulate its construction sand usage.
5.6 Germany
By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the
While German cement consumption has been
sand consumption can be predicted by assuming that
falling since 1999, 2004 and 2006 have provided some
country alarms in the year 2001, when over 50
hope to cement producers as very modest increases
thousand tons of extra sand is excavated, which is not
were noted. However, the fragmented industry
naturally renewed without government concern.
continues to suffer from considerable overcapacity.
The algorithm which we implemented have some over
fitting in the case of Germanys annual sand
consumption future prediction, so to avoid this over
fitting the algorithm is tunes accordingly. By running
the edited algorithm implemented, the importance of
each factor towards nations sand consumptions are as
follows:
 CTMC 2016

Table 7 The anticipated values of each factor:

GERMANY
Factor 2015 2016
GDP from 36.97 37.1
construction
GDP_GROWTH 1.552 1.81
Urban Population 77 77.2
Percentage
Urban population 62170091 62260626
Urban population 0.4 0.25
Growth
Energy 7375 7440
consumption
SIZE of country 349090 349090
Population 80688545 80682351

1) Germanys sand consumption 2015 =

62977.93 Thousand metric tons

2) Germanys sand consumption 2016 =

72300.41 Thousand metric tons

3) Threshold on annual sand consumption =

67000 Thousand metric tons.

4) Sand substitutes in the year 2015 = 0

Thousand metric tons

5) Sand substitutes in the year 2016 = 5300

Thousand metric tons
The most important factor that contributed to Italys
5.7 Italy sand consumption is urban population, followed GDP
from construction and population. So if Italy
As the excessive spending of the Berlusconi
government can regulate its GDP from construction
government draws to an end, the Italian construction
and urbanization, theoretically, it can regulate its
market is set to cool down. With the focus of cement
construction sand usage.
consumption moving southwards, it is expected that
per capita cement consumption will remain broadly By running classification algorithm, the threshold of the
maintained. The algorithm which we implemented sand consumption cannot be predicted by the
have some over fitting in the case of Italys annual implemented algorithm, because the values are non-
sand consumption future prediction, so to avoid this monotonic which enables algorithm to predict the
over fitting the algorithm is tunes accordingly. By threshold value of the annual sand consumption.
running the edited algorithm implemented, the
importance of each factor towards nations sand
consumptions are as follows:
CTMC 2016

Table 8 the anticipated values of each factor: data is not considered due to unavailability of data, but
ITALY the kind of analysis adopted to tackle this situation
Factor 2015 2016 helps to monitor sustainability and environmental
GDP from 22.7 22.1 impacts. This kind of study may extend from a states
construction construction sector to the scale of Global construction
GDP_GROWTH 0.68 0.73 sector. These studies are precise enough to raise this
Urban Population 70.5 70.7 issue on the political agenda and perhaps lead to an
Percentage international framework to improve extraction
Urban population 42166069 42306608 governance if there is reliable source for data. Further
Urban population 1.58 0.28 research work is required on implementing statistical
Growth analysis and the governments need to stress on the
Energy 5500 5600 data collection, which is very important in assessing
consumption the impacts of these environmental hazards.
SIZE of country 294110 294110
Population 59797685 59801004
1) Italys sand consumption 2015 = 42638.81
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