Affordability Challenges

to Homeownership
By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS

Presentation at Sustainable Homeownership Conference

at University of California at Berkeley

Cal Memorial Stadium

June 9, 2017
 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1990 - Q1 16000
1991 - Q1
1992 - Q1
$ billion

1993 - Q1
1994 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
2014 - Q1
2015 - Q1
2016 - Q1
Homeowners Equity in Real Estate from 1990

2017 - Q1
Homeowners Equity in Real Estate from 2009
(Doubling!)
16000
$ billion
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2009 - Q1 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 - Q1 2013 - Q1 2014 - Q1 2015 - Q1 2016 - Q1 2017 - Q1
 100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
2008 - Jan
2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
(FHFA)

2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
2012 - Jul
U.S. Home Price Index

2013 - Jan
2013 - Jul
2014 - Jan
2014 - Jul
2015 - Jan
2015 - Jul
2016 - Jan
2016 - Jul
2017 - Jan
 Median Home Price: New vs. Existing
350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 0
2
4
6
8
10
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
Low Supply over the past 5 year

2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
Inventory of Homes Low Months Supply

2017 - Jan
Home price grew by 41% 4 times faster than income
 100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500

-100
2008 - Oct
2009 - Jan
2009 - Apr
2009 - Jul
2009 - Oct
2010 - Jan
Thousand units

2010 - Apr
2010 - Jul
2010 - Oct
2011 - Jan
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
Single-family Housing Starts

2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2005 - Q1
2005 - Q2
2005 - Q3
2005 - Q4
2006 - Q1
2006 - Q2
2006 - Q3
2006 - Q4
2007 - Q1
2007 - Q2
2007 - Q3
2007 - Q4
2008 - Q1
2008 - Q2
2008 - Q3
2008 - Q4
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q2
2009 - Q3
2009 - Q4
2010 - Q1
2010 - Q2
2010 - Q3
2010 - Q4
2011 - Q1
2011 - Q2
2011 - Q3
2011 - Q4
2012 - Q1
2012 - Q2
2012 - Q3
(Serious Delinquency Rate)

2012 - Q4
All Mortgages

2013 - Q1
2013 - Q2
2013 - Q3
Borrowers Not Defaulting

Veterans Affairs Mortgages

2013 - Q4
2014 - Q1
2014 - Q2
2014 - Q3
2014 - Q4
2015 - Q1
2015 - Q2
2015 - Q3
2015 - Q4
FHA Mortgages

2016 - Q1
2016 - Q2
2016 - Q3
2016 - Q4
 73500
74000
74500
75000
75500
76000
76500
2009 - Q1
2009 - Q2
2009 - Q3
2009 - Q4
2010 - Q1
2010 - Q2
2010 - Q3
2010 - Q4
2011 - Q1
2011 - Q2
2011 - Q3
2011 - Q4
2012 - Q1
2012 - Q2
2012 - Q3
Owners 2012 - Q4
2013 - Q1
2013 - Q2
In thousands

2013 - Q3
2013 - Q4
2014 - Q1
2014 - Q2
Renters

2014 - Q3
2014 - Q4
2015 - Q1
2015 - Q2
2015 - Q3
2015 - Q4
2016 - Q1
2016 - Q2
2016 - Q3
2016 - Q4
# of Homeowners vs Renters

2017 - Q1
35000
37000
39000
41000
43000
45000
 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1965 - Q1
1967 - Q1
1969 - Q1
1971 - Q1
1973 - Q1
1975 - Q1
1977 - Q1
1979 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1991 - Q1
1993 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2001 - Q1
Homeownership Rate
Still Near 50-year Lows

2003 - Q1
2005 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2013 - Q1
2015 - Q1
2017 - Q1
Homeownership Rate and Home Price By Region
70
65
60
55
50
West Northeast South Midwest
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
West Northeast South Midwest
California Affordability Distribution:
Ownership Rate of 55%
Texas Affordability Distribution:
Ownership Rate of 61%
Indiana Affordability Distribution:
Ownership Rate of 70%
 100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
Dallas

2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q1
Houston

2006 - Q1
2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
San Antonio

2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
(Doubling in Price in 20 years)

2014 - Q1
Texas Markets: Home Price Index

2015 - Q1
2016 - Q1
2017 - Q1
 100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1998 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2000 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2004 - Q1
SF-Oak

2005 - Q1
2006 - Q1
SJ

2007 - Q1
2008 - Q1
LA

2009 - Q1
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 - Q1
2013 - Q1
2014 - Q1
CA Markets: Home Price Index
(Quadrupling in Price in 20 years)

2015 - Q1
2016 - Q1
2017 - Q1
 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Housing Permits
20000

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
San Francisco vs. Dallas

2010
Median Home Price

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Job Creation and Housing Construction
Cumulative over Recent 5 years
New New Jobs Housing Permits Single-Family Permits
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
SF-Oak San Jose Dallas Houston
Job Creation and Housing Construction
Cumulative over Recent 5 years
San Francisco- San Jose Dallas Houston
Oakland

Net New Jobs 355,900 161,200 412,900 330,900

Single-family 20,241 14,400 120,605 173,638

Housing
Permits
Ratio 17.6 17.5 3.4 1.9
 Households
KC Federal Reserve estimate of 6.9 million missing
households
130000
125000
120000
115000
110000
105000
100000
 Young Adults Living with
Parents
% of those aged 25 to 34
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016