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# INVERSE SQUARE ROOT TRANSFORMATIONS OF ERRORS OF

## MEASUREMENT OF THE RANDOM COMPONENT OF THE

MULTIPLICATIVE TIME SERIES MODEL.

REG.NO: NAU/Ph.D/2010557005P

SUPERVISED BY:

## (1) PROF. EMERITUS. OGUM, G.E.O.

(2) PROF. MBEGBU, J.I

1
ABSTRACT
Considering that time series data(Xt) requiring the application
of multiplicative time series model can be classified as one
requiring logarithm (Log(Xt)), square-root ( ), inverse , inverse-
square-root , square and inverse-square transformation and
whereas the theoretical results obtained for a particular
classification is not applicable to any other, we therefore
investigate the distribution and properties of the left-
truncated error term (et ), of the multiplicative time series
model under inverse-square-root transformation with a view
to establish the region in terms of the standard deviation of
the untransformed error component () where the basic
assumption of normality and unit mean required to proceed
with a multiplicative time series decomposition is satisfied for
the inverse-square-root transformed error term ( ).The curve

2
ABSTRACT CONTD
shapes of the probability density function of ,
g(y) for different values of , and by the
Rolless theorem showed that g(y) is bell-
shaped with mode 1 when 0 < 0.15.
Furthermore, the established functional forms
of the mean ( ) and variance ( ) functions
confirmed the mean of to be 1 with ,
whenever 0 < 0.15. Hence 0 < 0.15 is
the recommended condition for successful
application of inverse square root
transformation in time series modeling.
Finally, real life data from time series data
library were used to illustrate the established
theoretical results.

3
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The multiplicative time series model is usually appropriate when the

## time series, multiplicative models are common.

4
COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES

## The components of time series are: Trend, Seasonal,

Cyclical and Irregular. These are used in the models:

## Pseudo-additive/Mixed model: (1.7)

where X t is the observed time series for t = 1, 2, . . ., n, Tt is the trend, S t , the seasonal component, C t , the cyclical
component and e t , the irregular/residual component.

5
DATA TRANSFORMATION
Transformation is a mathematical operation that changes the
measurement scale of a variable. Generally, there are a number
of reasons for data transformation such as easy visualization and
variance stabilization

## (iii) Additivity of the seasonal effect

6
The most popular and common data transformation
technique is power transformation such as;
1 1 1
log X , X , , , X2, and .
e t t X t
t X
t X2
t

## The logarithmic transformation converts the

multiplicative model to additive model
Y = log X = log M + log S + log e = M * + S * + e * (1.8)
t e t e t e t e t t t t

## while other listed transformations leave the model still as

multiplicative.

7
Table 1: Transformations of the purely multiplicative model
Yt M t* S t* et* Model for Yt Assumption on S t* Assumption on et*
e t* ~ N 0, 12
s
log e X t log e M t log e S t log e e t Additive *
S 0
j 1

Xt Mt St et Multiplicative s

S s *
et* ~ N 1, 12
j 1

1/ X t 1/ M t 1/ S t 1/ e t Multiplicative s

S s *
et* ~ N 1, 12
j 1

X t2 M t2 S t2 e t2 Multiplicative s

S s *
et* ~ N 1, 12
j 1

1/ X t 1/ M t 1/ S t 1/ e t Multiplicative
s

S s *
et* ~ N 1, 12
j 1

1/ X t2 1/ M t2 1/ S t2 1/ e 2t Multiplicative s

S s *
et* ~ N 1, 12
j 1

8
METHODS OF DATA TRANSFORMATION
There are two major methods of data transformations,

## However for simplicity of application we shall adopt the Bartletts method as

applied by Akpanta and Iwueze (2009).
Table 1: Bartletts Transformation for some values of .

## S/N Required Transformation

1 0 No transformation
2 1 X t
2
3 1 log e X t
4 3 1
2 Xt
5 2 1
X t
6 3 1
X t2
7 1 X 2
t

9
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
For every transformation technique, there is
corresponding error term with known
distribution as proven by researchers in the
past. Critical look at the literature reveals that
the error term of inverse square root
transformation is still not in existence despite
the effort of researchers in the field. The study
set to determine condition for successful
inverse square root transformation of the error
component of the multiplicative time series
model and to determine its probability density
function.

10
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of inverse-square-
root transformation on the error component of the multiplicative time
series model with a view to establishing the condition for the
successful application of inverse-square-root transformation.
The objectives are :
(i) To find the probability density function of the inverse-square-root
transformed error component, of the multiplicative time series model.
(ii) To establish the theoretical expressions for the mean and variance of
the inverse-square-root transformed error component.
(iii) To establish the relationship between the basic parameters of the
untransformed component, and the inverse-square-root transformed
component, with regard to the model assumptions, and identify the
condition for the existence of their relationships.
(iv) To use simulated and real data to validate the established results of
the study.

11
1.4 JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY
The value of in Table 2 classified all time series data into mutually
exclusive groups, and hence can only be appropriately transformed by
only one of the six transformations listed in Table 2.

## Despite the fact that Iwueze(2007), Otuonye(2011), Nwosu(2013), Ohakwe

et al.,(2013) and Gabriel et a., (2014) had carried out similar studies
with respect to logarithm, square root, inverse, square and inverse
square transformations respectively, this work on inverse square root
transformation is still very necessary since results established for the
above listed five transformations cannot be applied in the analysis of
time series data requiring inverse square root transformation.

12
1.5 INVERSE-SQUARE-ROOT

3
TRANSFORMATION
When 2 in Table 2,we apply the inverse-square-root transformation to model (1.2),
which now becomes
1 1 1 1
Yt M t* St*et* (1.16)
Xt Mt St et

where * 1 1 1
Mt , St* and et* , et 0
Mt St et
Since et does not admit negative or zero values, the use of the left-truncated normal
distribution as the probability density function (p.d.f.) of et shall be explored.
1
In this study we would find the distribution of y et* and then answer the following
et
questions;
(i) is et ~ N (1, 12 ) ?

## (ii) What is the relationship between 12 and ?

2

13
LITERATURE REVIEW

## In the study, related works done by researchers such as

Bartlet 1947, Turkey (1957), Box and Cox, (1964); Winer (1968),
Montgomery (1991), Sakia (1992), Ruppert (1999), Osborne (2002),
Iwueze et al. (2008), Akpanta and Iwueze (2009), Fink (2009),
Akpanta and Iwueze (2009), Osborne (2010), Vidakovic (2012),
Otuonye et al., 2012, Nwosu et al., 2013, and Ohakwe et al.,2013 and
Gabriel et al 2014 were reviewed.
From the literature reviewed, it is clear that only the effect of
logarithm, square-root, inverse, square and and inverse-square
transformation on the distribution of the error component of the
multiplicative time series model have been exhaustively studied;
leaving out inverse-square-root transformations.
Consequently, the summary of results for the five rworks reviewed
and statistical properties of various transformations are shown in
Tables 2 and 3 respectively. 14
Figure 2.1: Components of the Multiplicative time Series Model Studied
Under the six most common transformations

## Logarithmic Square Root Inverse Inverse Square Square Inverse Square

Root

M St e M St e M St e
t t t

M St e M St e M St e
t t t

Key

Stud studied

## Und under Study

15
Table 1: Summary of Results for the four Works Reviewed

## The value Condition for Relationship

et* Distribution of et*
of for each successful between and
specific transformation
1
transformation

= 1.0 log e et
(logarithm), Iwueze (2007) et* N 0 , 12 < 0.1 1

## = 0.5 (square root), Otuonye et al (2011) et* N 1 , 12 0.30

1
1

2

= 2.0 1

(inverse), Nwosu et al (2012) et* N 1 , 12 0.1 1

## = -1.0 et* et2 (Square), Ohakwe et al et* N 1 , 12 0.027 1

(2013)

=3 1
et al (2014) et* N 1 , 12 0.070 1
2

16
Table 2: The Summary of Statistical Properties of Various Transformations Reviewed
Transformation Probability Density Function E(X) Var. (X)

1 x 1 2
exp
2
Logarithmic
1 1
2
1
e 2
2
2 2 2 1 e 2 e
2 2
Iwueze(2007) f ( x) ,0 < E* X 1 Var X
*
1 Pr (1) 2
1
2 1 1

1
2 1

2 1

2 1

1

2 1 1

0
, < 0
Square root 0 , < 0 2
1
12
Otunoye et al 2x ( x 2 1) 2

1
1
2
f ( x) e 2 2
1 5e 2 2 2 1 e 2
1 5e 2
2
1
2 1 1 E( X ) 1 1 Pr (1) 2 Var ( X ) 1 1 1 Pr (1) 2
2
(2011) 1 8 2 16 1 1 8 2 16
1 2 1 1
, 0

Inverse Nwosu
2
0
2 1 Pr 2 (1)
1 Pr (1)
2 2
et al (2012)

f ( x)
1
, 1 < 1 01 2

e 2 x
E( X ) 1

1 Pr 2(1) Var ( X )
2

1
2

2 1 x
1 21 1 1

2
21 21
, > 0

2
Sqaure
1
Ohakwe, et 1 x 1
2
e 2
2

2 2 1

e 2
1
2

1
2
e 2

E( X ) 1 Var ( X ) 1 Pr (1) 2
2 1
al (2013) e 2 1
1
2 1
1 1
2 1
f ( x) ,0 x
2 1

2 1 1

0 < 0
1 2
Inverse Sqaure
1 21
3 2 1
2

1 2
E( X ) 1 1 Pr (1) 2
,0 < <
transformatio = 1 3
1 2
2 2 1
2 1 1 1
2

## n, Ibeh, et al. 0 2 2 1 Pr 2(1) 2 3 2 1 Pr 2(1) 2

(2014) Var ( X )
1 1
1 2 1

17
3.0 METHODOLOGY
To achieve the stated objective, the under listed activities
were carried out;
1 1
Let X et and Y et*
et X

1
i. Obtaining the probability density of y e *t , denoted
et
as g(y)
ii. Plotting the probability density curves of g(y) and f *(x),
where f *(x) is the probability density function of the
left-truncated normal distribution
iii. Obtaining the region where g(y) satisfies the
normality(bell-shaped) conditions.
18
iv. Obtaining the interval with respect to where
mean median mode 1

## v. Anderson Darlings test statistics for normality was

used to confirm the normality of the simulated
error series et and the inverse-square-root
transformed error term for some values of .

## vi. Obtaining the functional expressions for the mean

1
and variance of y e *t , to validate some of the
et

## results obtained using simulated data.

19
3.1 PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION OF g(y)
The pdf of error term after inverse square root transformation g(y) was obtained using
the change of variable technique.
According to freund and Walpole (1986), the pdf of y denoted as g(y) and is given by
where f *(x) is given in (1.5) and
f * x | dy
dx
|
(1.17) dx 2
=
dy y3
Using the transformation of variable technique
hence g(y) is given as

2

- 1 1 -1
2 2 2 y 2
, 0 < y <

e
y 3 2 1- - 1

g y =

(1.18)

0, -< y 0

## g(y) given in (1.18) is a proper pdf since it was proved that

g y dy = 1
0
20
PLOTS OF THE PROBABILITY DENSITY CURVES
Using the pdfs given in (1.5) and (1.18) curves shapes
for f*(x) and g(y) were plotted for values of (0.6,
0.5].
However for want of space we only show eight of
them [see figures 1 through 8].

16
14
12
10
g(y)
8
6
4
f*(x)
2
0
-2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

## Figure 1. Curve Shapes for = 0.06

21
10

g(y)
6

2
f*(x)
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-2

## Figure 2. Curve Shapes for = 0.085

9
8
7
6
5 g(y)
4
3
2
1
f*(x)
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-1

## Figure 3. Curve Shapes for = 0.095

22
6

4 g(y)
3

1
f*(x)
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-1

## Figure 4. Curve Shapes for = 0.15

4
3.5
3
g(y)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5 f*(x)
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-0.5

## Figure 5. Curve Shapes for = 0.25

23
3.5

2.5 g(y)
2

1.5

0.5 f*(x)
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-0.5

## Figure 6. Curve Shapes for = 0.3

2.5

2
g(y)
1.5

0.5 f*(x)

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-0.5

## Figure 7. Curve Shapes for = 0.4

24
2.5

g(y)
1.5

0.5
f*(x)
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-0.5

## Figure 8. Curve Shapes for = 0.5

25
3.2 NORMALITY REGION FOR g(Y)
From figures 1 to 8, it is clear that the curve g(y) has one maximum
point ymax (mode) and maximum value g(ymax) for all values of .
To obtain the values of that satisfy the symmetric (bell-shaped)
condition of Mean Median Mode, we invoked the Rolles
Theorem and proceeded to obtain the maximum point (mode) for
a given value of .

ROLLES THEOREM
Rolles Theorem (Smith and Minton(2008)) says if f(x) is a
continuous variable on the interval [a, b] and differentiable on the
interval (a, b) with f(a) = f(b), then there exist a number
such that .
26
To obtain the values of that satisfy the symmetric (bell-
shaped) conditions, we invoked the Theorem and we
proceeded to obtain the maximum point for a given value of
, which is the solution of the equation
(1.19)
Differentiating (1.18) with respect to y, yields
2 1 _ y 2 (1.20)
3 2 4 2
- = 0 3 y + 2y - 2 = 0
2y 8 y4
Which when solved yields
-1+ 1+ 6 2 (1.21)
y=
3 2

## Hence the maximum value of y denoted as ymax is given by

y =
-1+ 1+ 6 2 (1.22).
max
3 2

## The numerical computations of ymax for various values of is

given in Table 3, where the bell-shaped condition implies
ymax 1 27
+ +
Table 3: COMPUTATION OF =
, . , .

+ + + +
= =

0.010 0.99992502 0.00007500 0.155 0.94470721 0.05529300
0.015 0.99970031 0.00030000 0.160 0.94163225 0.05836800
0.020 0.99932659 0.00067300 0.165 0.93852446 0.06147600
0.025 0.99880501 0.00119500 0.170 0.93538739 0.06461300
0.030 0.99813720 0.00186300 0.175 0.93222440 0.06777600
0.035 0.99732519 0.00267500 0.180 0.92903869 0.07096100
0.040 0.99637147 0.00362900 0.185 0.92583333 0.07416700
0.045 0.99527886 0.00472100 0.190 0.92261120 0.07738900
0.050 0.99405059 0.00594900 0.195 0.91937505 0.08062500
0.055 0.99269018 0.00731000 0.200 0.91612748 0.08387300
0.060 0.99120149 0.00879900 0.205 0.91287093 0.08712900
0.065 0.98958860 0.01041100 0.210 0.90960772 0.09039200
0.070 0.98785584 0.01214400 0.215 0.90634001 0.09366000
0.075 0.98600775 0.01399200 0.220 0.90306986 0.09693000
0.080 0.98404899 0.01595100 0.225 0.89979918 0.10020100
0.085 0.98198438 0.01801600 0.230 0.89652976 0.10347000
0.090 0.97981881 0.02018100 0.235 0.89326328 0.10673700
0.095 0.97755725 0.02244300 0.240 0.89000132 0.10999900
0.100 0.97520469 0.02479500 0.245 0.88674534 0.11325500
0.105 0.97276613 0.02723400 0.250 0.88349669 0.11650300
0.110 0.97024653 0.02975300 0.255 0.88025665 0.11974300
0.115 0.96765082 0.03234900 0.260 0.87702640 0.12297400
0.120 0.96498387 0.03501600 0.265 0.87380702 0.12619300
0.125 0.96225045 0.03775000 0.270 0.87059952 0.12940000
0.130 0.95945523 0.04054500 0.275 0.86740484 0.13259500
0.135 0.95660279 0.04339700 0.280 0.86422383 0.13577600
0.140 0.95369754 0.04630200 0.285 0.86105729 0.13894300
0.145 0.95074378 0.04925600 0.290 0.85790594 0.14209400
0.150 0.94774567 0.05225400 0.295 0.85477043 0.14523000
0.300 0.85165139 0.14834900
28
The summary of the values for ymax 1.0, with
respect to various number of decimal places is
given in Table 4.
Table 4: Conditions For ,
where
Decimal places
3 0 < < 0.015
2 0 < < 0.045
1 0 < < 0.145

## Thus g(y) is symmetrical about 1 with Mode 1

Mean correct to two decimal places when
0< < 0.045 and correct to
one decimal place when 0 < < 0.145 . This very
finding has narrowed down the viable region to
0 < < 0.145 since we would adopt the
correctness of our study to one decimal place.
29
Furthermore, in order ascertain the interval,
(0 , 0.15], we make a 3-D plot of the
untransformed (f(x)) and the inverse-square-
root transformed (f(y)) distributions for values
of = 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, . . . , 0.48, 0.49, 0.50
and for fixed values of X = Y = 0.00, 0.1, 0.2,,
1.1 . The plot is given in Figure 9. The aim of
the plot is to determine the point at which
normality exist among the variables. Based on
the property of Gaussian distribution, the
point at which bell-shape is spotted on the
graph is the point at which normality exist.
Based on the plot, normality was found to
exist for 0.15

30
3.3 USE OF SIMULATED ERROR VALUES
Here we applied a normality test (Anderson
Darling Test for Normality) to artificial data
generated from N 1, 2 density function for the
variable et , and subsequently used to generate its
inverse-square-root transform, et* 1 for 0.05
et

0.15 .

31
Figure 9: 3-D Plots of f(x) and f(y)
for fixed values of , X and Y

32

et N 1, 2 , 0.06 et*
1
et

, et N 1, 2 , 0.06

## Table 4: Simulation Results when = 0.06

et N 1, 2 , 0.06 et*
1
et

, et N 1, 2 , 0.06

Mean StD Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value Mean StDev Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis value
1 0.06 0.0036 0.9927 -0.01 0.16 .235 .788 1.0013 0.0303 0.000918 1.0037 0.32 0.57 .206 .867
1 0.06 0.0036 1.0009 0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0013 0.0302 0.000914 0.9995 0.24 0.01 .298 .580
1 0.06 0.0036 1.0002 0 0.2 .195 .889 1.0013 0.0303 0.000916 0.9999 0.29 0.37 .275 .654

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0029 0 0.22 .234 .790 1.0013 0.0303 0.000917 0.9985 0.3 0.32 .334 .505

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0037 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0013 0.0302 0.000915 0.9982 0.26 0.02 .312 .546

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0045 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0013 0.0301 0.000908 0.9978 0.18 0.24 .364 .433

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0037 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0013 0.0302 0.000915 0.9982 0.26 0.02 .312 .546

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0013 0.07 -0.04 .137 .976 1.0013 0.0302 0.00091 0.9993 0.19 -0.04 .213 .851

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9941 0.05 0.1 .196 .888 1.0013 0.0302 0.000911 1.003 0.22 0.04 .302 .569

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0017 -0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0014 0.0304 0.000924 0.9991 0.37 0.2 .453 .266

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0004 0.01 0.06 .200 .880 1.0013 0.0302 0.000915 0.9998 0.26 0.11 .314 .540

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0045 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0013 0.0301 0.000908 0.9978 0.18 0.24 .364 .433

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9991 -0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0013 0.0303 0.000916 1.0005 0.28 0.14 .214 .846

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9983 0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0013 0.0301 0.000908 1.0009 0.19 0.27 .206 .866

1 0.06 0.0036 1.001 0.18 0.05 .209 .859 1.0013 0.03 0.000901 0.9995 0.08 -0.08 .241 .767

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0028 0.03 0 .195 .889 1.0013 0.0302 0.000913 0.9986 0.24 0.1 .284 .625

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0031 0.05 -0.12 .141 .972 1.0013 0.0302 0.000911 0.9985 0.2 -0.07 .208 .862

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9975 0.27 0.18 .310 .550 1.0013 0.0299 0.000894 1.0012 0 0.1 .232 .795

1 0.06 0.0036 1.0006 -0.14 -0.47 .262 .699 1.0014 0.0304 0.000924 0.9997 0.35 -0.29 .385 .387

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9983 0.03 -0.04 .182 .911 1.0013 0.0302 0.000913 1.0009 0.23 -0.06 .318 .531

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9958 0.02 0.27 .150 .962 1.0013 0.0303 0.000916 1.0021 0.29 0.41 .218 .835

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9938 0.25 0.04 .290 .606 1.0013 0.0299 0.000896 1.0031 0.01 -0.01 .185 .906

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9931 0.16 0.04 .450 .270 1.0013 0.03 0.000903 1.0035 0.11 0.15 .336 .503

1 0.06 0.0036 0.995 0.09 -0.1 .199 .882 1.0013 0.0301 0.000907 1.0025 0.15 -0.16 .390 .376

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9987 0.01 -0.13 .216 .841 1.0013 0.0302 0.000914 1.0006 0.24 -0.1 .315 .538

1 0.06 0.0036 0.9942 0.19 -0.14 .311 .546 1.0013 0.03 0.000899 1.0029 0.05 -0.2 .165 .940

33
Table 5: Simulation Results when = 0.08

et N 1, 2
, 0.08 et*
1
et

, et N 1, 2 , 0.08
Mean StD Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value Mean StD Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9903 -0.01 0.16 .235 .788 1.0024 0.0407 0.00166 1.0049 0.43 0.81 .239 .773

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0013 0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0024 0.0406 0.00165 0.9994 0.33 0.08 .369 .421

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0003 0 0.2 .195 .889 1.0024 0.0407 0.00165 0.9999 0.4 0.5 .340 .490

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0039 0 0.22 .234 .790 1.0024 0.0407 0.00165 0.9981 0.4 0.42 .407 .343

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0049 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0024 0.0406 0.00165 0.9975 0.34 0.09 .393 .370

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0059 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0024 0.0404 0.00163 0.997 0.29 0.37 .382 .392

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0049 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0024 0.0406 0.00165 0.9975 0.34 0.09 .393 .370

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0018 0.07 -0.04 .137 .976 1.0024 0.0404 0.00164 0.9991 0.28 0.01 .275 .655

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9921 0.05 0.1 .196 .888 1.0024 0.0405 0.00164 1.004 0.3 0.08 .373 .412

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0023 -0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0024 0.0409 0.00167 0.9989 0.46 0.29 .558 .145

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0005 0.01 0.06 .200 .880 1.0024 0.0406 0.00165 0.9997 0.35 0.18 .394 .369

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0059 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0024 0.0404 0.00163 0.997 0.29 0.37 .382 .392

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9987 -0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0024 0.0406 0.00165 1.0006 0.37 0.27 .260 .704

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9977 0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0024 0.0404 0.00163 1.0012 0.29 0.41 .229 .805

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0013 0.18 0.05 .209 .859 1.0024 0.0402 0.00161 0.9993 0.16 -0.07 .290 .605

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0038 0.03 0 .195 .889 1.0024 0.0405 0.00164 0.9981 0.33 0.19 .354 .456

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0041 0.05 -0.12 .141 .972 1.0024 0.0405 0.00164 0.9979 0.29 -0.01 .267 .680

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9967 0.27 0.18 .310 .550 1.0024 0.04 0.0016 1.0017 0.1 0.13 .246 .753

1 0.08 0.0064 1.0009 -0.14 -0.47 .262 .699 1.0024 0.0409 0.00167 0.9996 0.42 -0.2 460 .256

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9977 0.03 -0.04 .182 .911 1.0024 0.0405 0.00164 1.0012 0.31 -0.02 .400 .357

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9945 0.02 0.27 .150 .962 1.0024 0.0406 0.00165 1.0028 0.39 0.55 .282 .631

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9918 0.25 0.04 .290 .606 1.0024 0.04 0.0016 1.0041 0.1 0.01 .192 .894

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9907 0.16 0.04 .450 .270 1.0024 0.0402 0.00162 1.0047 0.21 0.25 .340 .492

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9934 0.09 -0.1 .306 .559 1.0024 0.0404 0.00163 1.0033 0.23 -0.14 .458 .259

1 0.08 0.0064 0.9983 0.01 -0.13 .199 .882 1.0024 0.0406 0.00165 1.0009 0.32 -0.05 .395 .366

34
Table 6: Simulation Results when = 0.1

et N 1, 2
, 0.1 et*
1
et

, et N 1, 2 , 0.1

Mean StD Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value Mean StD Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value
1 0.1 0.01 0.9878 -0.01 0.16 .235 .788 1.0038 0.0514 0.00265 1.0061 0.56 1.13 .298 .582
1 0.1 0.01 1.0016 0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0038 0.0511 0.00262 0.9992 0.42 0.19 .457 .260
1 0.1 0.01 1.0003 0 0.2 .195 .889 1.0038 0.0513 0.00263 0.9998 0.51 0.68 .428 .306
1 0.1 0.01 1.0049 0 0.22 .234 .790 1.0038 0.0513 0.00264 0.9976 0.5 0.57 .502 .201
1 0.1 0.01 1.0062 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0038 0.0512 0.00262 0.9969 0.43 0.19 .495 .211
1 0.1 0.01 1.0074 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0038 0.0509 0.00259 0.9963 0.39 0.54 .424 313
1 0.1 0.01 1.0062 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0038 0.0512 0.00262 0.9969 0.43 0.19 .495 .211
1 0.1 0.01 1.0022 0.07 -0.04 .137 .976 1.0038 0.0509 0.00259 0.9989 0.37 0.09 .357 .450
1 0.1 0.01 0.9902 0.05 0.1 .196 .888 1.0038 0.051 0.0026 1.005 0.39 0.15 .464 .251
1 0.1 0.01 1.0029 -0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0038 0.0516 0.00267 0.9986 0.56 0.41 .685 .071
1 0.1 0.01 1.0007 0.01 0.06 .200 .880 1.0038 0.0512 0.00262 0.9997 0.44 0.28 .495 .210
1 0.1 0.01 1.0074 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0038 0.0509 0.00259 0.9963 0.39 0.54 .424 .313
1 0.1 0.01 0.9984 -0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0038 0.0513 0.00263 1.0008 0.47 0.45 .326 .516
1 0.1 0.01 0.9971 0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0038 0.0509 0.00259 1.0014 0.4 0.59 .272 .664
1 0.1 0.01 1.0016 0.18 0.05 .209 .859 1.0037 0.0505 0.00255 0.9992 0.25 -0.05 .359 .445
1 0.1 0.01 1.0047 0.03 0 .195 .889 1.0038 0.0511 0.00261 0.9977 0.43 0.32 .446 .277
1 0.1 0.01 1.0052 0.05 -0.12 .141 .972 1.0038 0.051 0.0026 0.9974 0.37 0.08 346 .477
1 0.1 0.01 0.9959 0.27 0.18 .310 .550 1.0037 0.0502 0.00252 1.0021 0.19 0.19 .278 .642
1 0.1 0.01 1.0011 -0.14 -0.47 .262 .699 1.0038 0.0516 0.00266 0.9995 0.5 -0.08 .554 .150
1 0.1 0.01 0.9971 0.03 -0.04 .182 .911 1.0038 0.0511 0.00261 1.0014 0.4 0.05 .499 .205
1 0.1 0.01 0.9931 0.02 0.27 .150 .962 1.0038 0.0513 0.00263 1.0035 0.5 0.74 .368 .424
1 0.1 0.01 0.9897 0.25 0.04 .290 .606 1.0037 0.0503 0.00253 1.0052 0.19 0.06 .221 .827
1 0.1 0.01 0.9884 0.16 0.04 .450 .270 1.0037 0.0506 0.00256 1.0058 0.31 0.39 .366 .428
1 0.1 0.01 0.9917 0.09 -0.1 .306 .559 1.0038 0.0508 0.00258 1.0042 0.32 -0.1 .547 .156
1 0.1 0.01 0.9979 0.01 -0.13 .199 .882 1.0038 0.0511 0.00261 1.0011 0.41 0.02 .497 .207

35
Table 7: Simulation Results when = 0.15

et N 1, 2
, 0.15 et*
1
et

, et N 1, 2 , 0.15

p-
Mean StD Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value Mean StDev Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD value
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9818 -0.01 0.16 .235 .788 1.0089 0.0803 0.00645 1.0092 0.94 2.44 .582 .126
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0024 0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0088 0.0791 0.00626 0.9988 0.67 0.65 .761 .046
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0005 0 0.2 .195 .889 1.0088 0.0798 0.00637 0.9997 0.81 1.4 .756 .047
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0073 0 0.22 .234 .790 1.0088 0.0798 0.00636 0.9964 0.79 1.15 .857 .027
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0093 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0088 0.0792 0.00628 0.9954 0.68 0.61 .842 .029
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0111 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0087 0.0788 0.0062 0.9945 0.69 1.16 .646 .089
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0093 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0088 0.0792 0.00628 0.9954 0.68 0.61 .842 .029
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0034 0.07 -0.04 .137 .976 1.0087 0.0786 0.00618 0.9983 0.6 0.42 .656 .085
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9853 0.05 0.1 .196 .888 1.0087 0.0788 0.00621 1.0075 0.63 0.47 .785 .040
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0043 -0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0089 0.0804 0.00646 0.9979 0.82 0.9 1.109 .005
1 0.15 0.0225 1.001 0.01 0.06 .200 .880 1.0088 0.0793 0.00628 0.9995 0.69 0.67 .860 .026
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0111 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0087 0.0788 0.0062 0.9945 0.69 1.16 .646 .089
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9976 -0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0088 0.0796 0.00633 1.0012 0.75 1.11 .596 .119
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9957 0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0087 0.0788 0.00621 1.0022 0.71 1.31 .486 .221
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0025 0.18 0.05 .209 .859 1.0086 0.0775 0.00601 0.9988 0.46 0.13 .620 .104
1 0.15 0.0225 1.007 0.03 0 195 889 1.0088 0.0791 0.00626 0.9965 0.69 0.87 .779 .042
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0077 0.05 -0.12 141 .972 1.0087 0.0787 0.00619 0.9962 0.61 0.44 .635 .095
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9938 0.27 0.18 .310 .550 1.0085 0.077 0.00593 1.0031 0.45 0.53 .450 .271
1 0.15 0.0225 1.0016 -0.14 -0.47 .262 .699 1.0089 0.0799 0.00639 0.9992 0.7 0.32 .880 .023
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9957 0.03 -0.04 .182 .911 1.0087 0.0789 0.00622 1.0022 0.62 0.36 .838 .030
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9896 0.02 0.27 .500 .962 1.0088 0.0798 0.00636 1.0052 0.82 1.54 .701 .065
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9846 0.25 0.04 .290 .606 1.0085 0.077 0.00593 1.0078 0.43 0.29 .398 .361
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9826 0.16 0.04 .450 .270 1.0086 0.0781 0.00609 1.0088 0.6 0.97 .545 .157
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9876 0.09 -0.1 .306 .559 1.0087 0.0782 0.00611 1.0063 0.52 0.1 .868 .025
1 0.15 0.0225 0.9968 0.01 -0.13 .199 .882 1.0088 0.079 0.00624 1.0016 0.62 0.29 .860 .026

36
Table 8: Simulation Results when = 0.2

et N 1, 2 , 0.2 et*
1
et

, et N 1, 2 , 0.2

Mean StD Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value Mean StDev Variance Median Skewness Kurtosis AD p-value
1 0.2 0.04 0.9757 -0.01 0.16 .235 .788 1.0167 0.1147 0.0132 1.0124 1.51 5.22 1.176 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0032 0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0162 0.1107 0.0123 0.9984 0.97 1.48 1.220 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0007 0 0.2 .195 .889 1.0165 0.1127 0.0127 0.9997 1.2 2.76 1.315 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0097 0 0.22 .234 .790 1.0164 0.1124 0.0126 0.9952 1.14 2.2 1.435 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0124 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0163 0.1109 0.0123 0.9939 0.97 1.4 1.353 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0148 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0161 0.1105 0.0122 0.9927 1.05 2.24 1.097 .007
1 0.2 0.04 1.0124 0 -0.03 .178 .918 1.0163 0.1109 0.0123 0.9939 0.97 1.4 1.353 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0045 0.07 -0.04 .137 .976 1.0161 0.1095 0.012 0.9978 0.87 1.01 1.117 .006
1 0.2 0.04 0.9803 0.05 0.1 .196 .888 1.0161 0.11 0.0121 1.01 0.9 1.05 1.276 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0057 -0.1 0.1 .250 ..739 1.0166 0.1133 0.0128 0.9971 1.12 1.7 1.734 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0013 0.01 0.06 .200 .880 1.0163 0.111 0.0123 0.9994 0.98 1.33 1.418 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0149 0.1 0.05 .435 .294 1.0161 0.1105 0.0122 0.9927 1.05 2.24 1.097 .007
1 0.2 0.04 0.9968 -0.01 -0.05 .183 .908 1.0164 0.112 0.0125 1.0016 1.11 2.32 1.072 .008
1 0.2 0.04 0.9943 0.1 0.1 .250 .739 1.0162 0.1107 0.0123 1.0029 1.1 2.66 .915 0.019
1 0.2 0.04 1.0033 0.18 0.05 .209 .859 1.0157 0.1072 0.0115 0.9984 0.7 0.49 1.026 0.010
1 0.2 0.04 1.0094 0.03 0 .195 .889 1.0162 0.1109 0.0123 0.9953 1.03 1.97 1.293 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 1.0103 0.05 -0.12 .141 .972 1.0161 0.1097 0.012 0.9949 0.88 1.1 1.084 0.007
1 0.2 0.04 0.9917 0.27 0.18 .310 .550 1.0156 0.1066 0.0114 1.0042 0.75 1.27 .768 0.045
1 0.2 0.04 1.0021 -0.14 -0.47 .260 .699 1.0165 0.1119 0.0125 0.9989 0.95 0.97 1.371 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 0.9942 0.03 -0.04 .182 .911 1.0162 0.11 0.0121 1.0029 0.88 0.93 1.331 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 0.9862 0.02 0.27 .150 .962 1.0165 0.1128 0.0127 1.007 1.24 3.16 1.267 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 0.9795 0.25 0.04 .290 .606 1.0156 0.1064 0.0113 1.0104 0.69 0.72 .745 0.051
1 0.2 0.04 0.9768 0.16 0.04 .450 .270 1.0159 0.109 0.0119 1.0118 0.96 2.08 .933 .017
1 0.2 0.04 0.9835 0.09 -0.1 .306 .559 1.0159 0.1084 0.0118 1.0084 0.75 0.48 1.348 <0.05
1 0.2 0.04 0.9958 0.01 -0.13 .199 .882 1.0162 0.1101 0.0121 1.0021 0.86 0.73 1.402 <0.05

37
Using the p-values of the Anderson Darling test
of normality in Tables 4 through 8, we can
confidently say that g(y) is normality distributed
in the viable region, 0 < < 0.15 . It is also clear that
the means of both the transformed and the
untransformed are approximately 1.0 to one
decimal place.

38
3.4: FUNCTIONAL EXPRESSION FOR THE
MEAN AND VARIANCE OF g(y)
Firstly the mean denoted by E(y) and defined as
2

- 1 1 -1
2 1 2 2
y
2

E y = y g y dy 2

e
0
2 1 - - 1 0 y

was established to be
1 1
15 2 2 3 2 1 5 3 2 2
= 1 + 1 + 21 < 2 + (1.23)
1 1 1
16 2 1 16 1 8 2 1

## after a tedious algebraic process, where every

subsequent term of (1.23) contains the factor
- 1
.
e 2
2

## Similarly the second crude moment denoted

by E(y2) and defined as
2

- 1 1 -1
1 2 2
y
2

E y2 y g y dy
2 2

e
0
2 1 - - 1 0 y

39
was also established to be
1
1
8 3 2 1 3
8 2 2
2 = 1 1 2 2 + 1 2 + 21 < 2 1 + (1.24)
2 1 4 1 2 1

## Where all other subsequent terms also have the

- 1
common factor e 2 2

## However from simulation results given in

- 1
Table 9, e 2 2
0.0 0.17

40
- 1
Table 9: Computation of e 2
2

- 1
2
e 2
0.01 0.0000000
0.02 0.0000000
0.03 0.0000000
0.04 0.0000000
0.05 0.0000000
0.06 0.0000000
0.07 0.0000000
0.08 0.0000000
0.09 0.0000000
0.10 0.0000000
0.11 0.0000000
0.12 0.0000000
0.13 0.0000000
0.14 0.0000000
0.15 0.0000000
0.16 0.0000000
0.17 0.0000000
0.18 0.0000002
0.19 0.0000010
0.20 0.0000037
0.21 0.0000119
0.22 0.0000326
0.23 0.0000785
41
Considering that our region of successful
- 1
transformation is 0 < < 0.15 and where as , 2
e 2 0.0 0.17

## therefore every term in (1.23) and (1.24) that has

- 1
the factor, = 0, hence the functional
e 2
2

moments are;
Ey = 1 +
3 2 1+ Pr 2 <
16 1- -
1

1
1
2 , 0.17 (1.25)

E y 2
=1+
2
2 1- -
1

1+ Pr 2 <
1
1
2 , 0.17 (1.26)

## Hence the variance, 2

1 , defined as E(y2) [E(y)]2
is given as
2

Var y = 12 =1+
2
2 1- -
1

1 + Pr 2 <
1
1
2 - 1 +

3 2
16 1- -
1

1 + Pr 2
1 < 1
2

0.17 (1.27)
42
The computations of Variance of et = x, mean and
Variance y = e = 1 using (1.7), (1.25) and (1.26)
*
t
et

## respectively are shown in Table 10. Also included

in Table 10 is the variance ratio, Var x = e t

Var y = e
*
t

- 1
Table 10: Computation of e 2 2

- 1 E(Y) Var( y = e *
t ) Var( x = e t ) Var x = e t
e 2
2
Var y = e *
t

## 0.01 0.0000000 1.00004 0.000025 0.000100 4.000225

0.02 0.0000000 1.00015 0.000100 0.000400 4.000900
0.03 0.0000000 1.00034 0.000225 0.000900 4.002026
0.04 0.0000000 1.00060 0.000400 0.001600 4.003603
0.05 0.0000000 1.00094 0.000624 0.002500 4.005633
0.06 0.0000000 1.00135 0.000898 0.003600 4.008116
0.07 0.0000000 1.00184 0.001222 0.004900 4.011055
0.08 0.0000000 1.00240 0.001594 0.006400 4.014452
0.09 0.0000000 1.00304 0.002016 0.008100 4.018308
0.10 0.0000000 1.00375 0.002486 0.010000 4.022627
0.11 0.0000000 1.00454 0.003004 0.012100 4.027412
0.12 0.0000000 1.00540 0.003571 0.014400 4.032665
0.13 0.0000000 1.00634 0.004185 0.016900 4.038390
0.14 0.0000000 1.00735 0.004846 0.019600 4.044592
0.15 0.0000000 1.00844 0.005554 0.022500 4.051274
0.16 0.0000000 1.00960 0.006308 0.025600 4.058442
0.17 0.0000000 1.01084 0.007108 0.028900 4.066100
0.18 0.0000002 1.01215 0.007952 0.032400 4.074253
0.19 0.0000010 1.01354 0.008842 0.036100 4.082909
0.20 0.0000037 1.01500 0.009775 0.040000 4.092072
0.21 0.0000119 1.01654 0.010752 0.044100 4.101749
0.22 0.0000326 1.01815 0.011771 0.048400 4.111948
0.23 0.0000785 1.01984 0.012831 0.052900 4.122675

43
It can be seen in Table 10 that the mean of the
inverse-square-root transformed error
component is approximately unity while its
variance is 4 times the variance of the
untransformed distribution or that the variance
of the untransformed error component is one-
quarter the variance of the inverse-square-root
transformed distribution.
44
3.5: NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATION USING A REAL-LIFE DATA
Here, to validate the results obtained using simulated
data, real life data was used to justify the result of the
analysis.
we used data on the Monthly interest rates Government
Bond Yield 2-year securities, Reserve Bank of Australia,
Jan 1976 Dec 1993 is used for this study.
The data were got from the Time Series Data Library
exported from datamarket.com The data is presented in
Table 4.1 while its time series plot is shown in Figure 4.1.
The periodic means and standard deviation and their
natural logarithms are presented in Table 4.2
Table 4.1: Buys-Ballot Table for The Monthly Interest
Rates Government Bond Yield 2-Year Securities,
Reserve Bank of Australia. Jan 1976 Dec 1993.
45
Here we
(i) Justified the Choice of the multiplicative model for data
decomposition to obtain the residual series (error component e ) of
t

## the original data X t )

(ii) Calculated of the mean and variance of e ) and tested for its
t

## normality using Anderson-Darling test of normality.

(iii) Justified the suitability of inverse-square-root transformation of
the original data X
t

## (iv) Applied Inverse-square-root transformation on Xt to obtain Yt

and decomposed Yt to obtain the error component e *
t

## (v) Fitting the data to appropriate model.

(vi) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of e and its
*
t

## assessment for normality using Anderson-Darling test of

normality.
and finally
(vii)Comparison of e t and e
*
t

## The details of the procedures are contained in the Thesis.

46
Table 4.8 Summary of the descriptive statistics of and from the real
life - data and from the functional expression obtained in chapter 3.
Error Mean Median Standard KS test p-value of Decision
component Deviation Statistic the AD test

## 0.9992 0.9719 0.1444 0.099 <0.01 Reject Normality

At 1% level of 3.72 4.0
significance

## 1.0004 1.0092 0.0749 0.065 0.034 Do not reject

normality at 1% level
of significance

From the analysis, we have shown that the original data whose
error component was not normally distributed was normalized
after the inverse-square-root transformation. Furthermore, we
also established that the mean of the error component before
and after inverse-square-root transformation remains the same
(a unit).
47
It was also established that the standard deviation = 0.1341 of the error
component after the inverse-square-root transformation is within the
established interval 0 < <0.15of successful inverse-square-root transformation.
Finally the ratio of the standard deviation of the untransformed error
component to that of the inverse-square-root transformed error component is
approximately 2.0 which implied that the ratio of the variance of the
untransformed error component to that of the inverse-square-root
transformed error component is approximately 4.0 as was numerically
established in Chapter two.

## 4.1 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

In this study, we investigated the distribution and properties of the left-
truncated N 1, error term, et , of the multiplicative time series model under
2

## inverse-square-root transformation with a view to establish the condition for

the transformed error term, e *t, to be normally distributed with mean, 1. It was
found that the normality of e *tis attained for 0.15and the functional forms of
E e and Var e confirmed
*
t
*
t the mean of e *tto be 1 with Var e 14 Var e , whenever 0.145.
*
t t

Hence 0.145 is the recommended condition for successful inverse square root
transformation.

48
4.2: CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE
The fundamental contribution of this study to knowledge in the use
of data transformation are ; (i) the establishment of the distribution
and properties of the Left-truncated N 1, error term under inverse
2

## square root transformation and (ii) the establishment of the interval

0,0.15 for a successful and valid inverse-square-root transformation

## in modeling using the multiplicative time series model.

4.3 RECOMMENDATION
We recommend that for successful and valid inverse square root
transformation in time series the standard deviation of the error
component should be in the interval (0, 0.15).
4.4 LIMITATION
Considering that the error component of a multiplicative time
series model can assume a distribution that is nonnormal,
therefore the limitation of this this study is that we did not
investigate whether the results obtained when the error
components are assumed to be normally distributed are also
applicable when it is non-normally distributed.

49
4.4 SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH
The following areas are suggested for further
research;
(i) The effect of the inverse-square-root
transformation on the error component of the
multiplicative error model whose distribution is
assumed to be non-normal such as Gamma,
Weibull, inverted-gamma and mixtures of them.

## (ii) The effect of the inverse-square transformation

on the error
component of the multiplicative time series model

50
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