Pilar Sanmartn

Telecommunications Engineering
Technical University of Cartagena

Foundations of probability theory

1. The probability of rolling 2 with a loaded die is twice the probability of getting 1.
The probability of obtaining 3 is three times the probability of getting 1, and so
on. What is the probability of getting 4? And the probability of getting an even
number?

2. Answer the questions of problem 1 when a normal die is used.

3. Let us consider the events A and B. Over a set of 50 elements we obtain, and a
simple space, p(A B) = 10h; p(A B) = 15h; p(A B) = 20h; p(A B) = 5h.
Find the value of h. How many elements from A do not belong to B?

4. Five dice are rolled on a table. Find the probability that all dice show even numbers.
Find the probability of getting at least one 6.

5. A consultants office rents cars from three different agencies: 20% from agency D,
20% from agency E and 60% from agency F. If 10% of cars from D, 12% from E
and 4% from F present damaged tires:

(a) Find the probability that the office receives damaged tires.
(b) If the office has rented a car with damaged tires, find the probability that the
car was rented from agency F.

6. Let us consider two events, A and B, with P (A) = 0.5 and P (A B) = 0.7. (a)
Find P(B) assuming that A and B are independent.(b) Find P (B) assuming that
A and B are mutually exclusive. (c) Find P (B) when P (A|B) = 0.5

7. In an experiment, A, B, C and D are events with probabilities P (A) = 1/4, P (B) =

1/8, P (C) = 5/8, P (D) = 3/8. Furthermore, A and B are disjoint, while C and D
are independent.

(a) Find P (A B), P (A B), P (A B) and P (A B).

(b) Are A and B independent?
(c) Find P (C D), P (C D), P (C D)
 8. At the end of the regulation time, a basketball team is trailing by one point and a
player goes to the line for two free throws. If the player makes exactly one free throw,
the game goes into overtime. The probability that the first free throw is good is
1/2. However, if the first attempt is good, the player relaxes and the second attempt
is good with probability 3/4. However, if the player misses the first attempt, the
added pressure reduces the success probability to 1/4. What is the probability that
the game goes into overtime?
9. There are two types of cellular phones, handheld phones (H) that you carry and
mobile phones (M) that are mounted in vehicles. Phone calls can be classified by
the traveling speed of the user as fast (F) or slow (W). Monitor a cellular phone call
and observe the type of telephone and the speed of the user. The probability model
for this experiment has the following information: P (F ) = 0.5, P (H F ) = 0.2,
P (M W ) = 0.1. Calculate the following probabilities:
(a) P (W )
(b) P (M F )
(c) P(H)
10. A system is composed of 6 independent items as shown in the following figure:










If every item has a probability of failure p=0.1, find the probability that the system
works.
11. In a manufacturing process, a type 1 defect appears with probability 0.1, whereas
a type2 defect appears with probability 0.05. If both defects are independent, find
the probability that:
(a) An item presents both defects at the same time.
(b) An item is defective.
(c) Assuming that an item is defective, what is the probability of presenting that
it only has one of the two defects?
12. The production of parts from 3 factories is stored in a warehouse. Factory 1 produces
20%, factory 2 46% and factory 3 34% of the total production. The percentage of
non-standard pieces are 3%, 2% and 1% for factories 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Find
the probability that a piece chosen randomly was produced in factory 1 if it is
non-standard.
13. Bean seeds from supplier A have 85% germination rate and those from supplier B
have a 75% germination rate. A seed packaging company purchases 40% of their
bean seeds from supplier A and 60% from supplier B and mixes these seeds together.

a) Find the probability that a seed selected at random will be germinate and
comes form supplier A.
b) Find the probability that a seed selected at random from the mixed seeds will
germinate.
c) Given that a seed germinates, find the probability that the seed was purchased
from supplier A.