LECTURE 5 SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS

m nurman helmi
Program Pascasarjana
Universitas Pasundan
 SYSTEMS THINKING AS A
LANGUAGE
Systems thinking can be thought of as a language for
communicating about complexities and interdependencies.
The following qualities make systems thinking a useful
framework for discussing and analyzing complex issues
Focuses on "closed interdependencies."
The language of systems thinking is circular rather than linear.
It focuses on closed interdependencies, where x influences y, y
influences z, and z influences x.
A "visual" language.
Many of the systems thinking toolscausal loop diagrams, behavior-
over-time diagrams, systems archetypes, and structural diagrams
have a strong visual component.
They help clarify complex issues by summing up, concisely and clearly,
the key elements involved.
Diagrams also facilitate learning.
A systems diagram is a powerful communication tool because it distills
the essence of a problem into a format that can be easily remembered,
yet is rich in implications and insights.
 SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS

Basic tools
Feedback diagram
Stocks and flows
Dynamic thinking tools
Behaviour over time diagrams (BOTs)
Causal loop diagram (CLD)
Systems archetypes
Structural thinking tools
Graphical function diagram
Structure behaviour pair
Policy structure diagram
 FEEDBACK

Feedback is the signal that is looped back to control a system

within itself.
This loop is called the feedback loop.
A control system usually has input and output to the system;
When the output of the system is fed back into the system as part of its
input, it is called the "feedback."
Feedback may be positive which tends to increase output
Positive feedback is a feedback system in which the system responds
to the perturbation in the same direction as the perturbation
The end result of a positive feedback is often amplifying and "explosive
Feedback may be negative which tends to reduce output
Negative feedback is a feedback system in which the system
responds to the perturbation in the opposite direction as the
perturbation
 FEEDBACK LOOPS
Feedback loops are representation of a systemic structure
underlying a dynamic inter-relations among variables /
components in a system
Feedback loops are liked a closed circuits of interconnection
between variables and as sequences of mutual cause and effect
Two types of feedback loops: reinforcing & balancing
feedback
Reinforcing feedback Reinforcing loop
In a reinforcing process, a small change builds on itself.
Whatever movement occurs is amplified, producing more movement in
the same direction movement is amplified
Variable A changes and variable B changes in the same direction (S
or +)
Balancing feedback Balancing loop.
Balancing feedback processes underlie all goal-oriented
behavior
Variable A and Variable B changes in the opposite direction (O or -)
 FEEDBACK LOOP

Reinforcing Feedback

Balancing Feedback
 FEEDBACK LOOP: REINFORCE LOOP
Engine of growth and collapse
They compound more change in one direction with
even more change in the same direction
snowball effect

+ S
state of
the system
Net Increase State of
Rate R The System

Time S +

Behaviour over time

Reinforcing Loop
 FEEDBACK LOOP: BALANCING LOOP
Try the desired state and keep them there
Effect of reinforcing loops destabilize systems & balancing process
stabilize a system by producing a change in the opposite direction
Goal

state of
the system
Goal (desired
Time S + state of state of
Behaviour over time the system the system)
O
+ S -
+
B
discrepancy S
Stress Level Coping
B
Strategies
O-
Corrective
+ S
action
Balancing Loop (I) Balancing Loop (II)
 BEHAVIOR-OVER
BEHAVIOR- OVER--TIME GRAPHS
(BOTGS):
A BOTG is a simple tool that can help people focus on
patterns of change over time rather than on isolated
events, leading to rich discussions on how and why
something is changing. BOTGs focus on trends.
A BOTG is a basic line graph showing the trend, or pattern of
change, of a variable over time.
The X axis:
is always labeled in units of time or can reflect change in time.
has defined beginning and ending points; the precision of the
definition can meet your specific purpose.
Care should be taken to explain the logic for the
 BOTGS FOR FEEDBACK LOOPS

Reinforcing Loop

Balancing Loop
 MODEL UMUM PERILAKU DINAMIKA SISTEM EXPONENTIAL

PILIH YANG MANA?

WAKTU
LO GOAL SEEKING 1 HI GOAL SEEKING 2 S - CURVE

WAKTU WAKTU WAKTU

OSCILLATION GROWTH WITH OVERSHOOT

OVERSHOOT AND COLLAPSE

WAKTU WAKTU WAKTU

MODIF DARI SUMBER: BUSINESS DYNAMICS/ JOHN D. STERMAN 20002004
11
 CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM (CLD)
Causal Loops are simple diagrams that are drawn to
indicate hypothesized relationships among the system
elements under examination
Causal loop diagram contains:
One or more feedback loops that are either reinforcing or balancing
process
Cause and effect relationships amongst variables
An example of a feedback loop to represent:
an organizational situation where an increase in layoffs result in a
decrease in morale.

+ + -
Layoffs Morale Productivity
R
 CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM (CLD)

EXAMPLE OF CAUSAL LOOPS

LINK

+ +
Coping Interest accrued in
Stress Strategies Balance in Account Account Savings
Level Savings

- -
VARIABLES
 CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS
Total Work
Capacity
My Goals Your Goals
My Consumption of Your Consumption of
+ Dollars Dollars +

- + -
+ Work +
My Need for Work Available Your Need for Work
+ +
-

My fear that you will Your fear that I will

Not leave enough work - - Not leave enough work
me you
Number of activities competing
For work
-

Conflict
+ +
Two reinforcing loops (Sherwood, 2002)
 CLD & BOT DIAGRAM

Causal loop diagram Behaviour over time

(CLD) + diagram (BOT)
B -
A
R B
C
+ B
A
+ C

Time
 STOCK AND FLOW

Stock
Anything that builds up or dwindles
E.g. water in bathtub, savings in bank account,
inventory in a warehouse
Flow
The amount of change something undergoes
during a particular unit of time
E.g. amount of water that flows out of a bathtub
each minute, amount of interest rate earned in
savings, etc
Stock and flow diagrams contain specific
symbols and components representing the
structure of a system.
 STOCK AND FLOW

Bath tub: A flow changes the rate of

accumulation of the stock
inflow
stock

outflow

Stock and flow diagram:

 STOCK AND FLOW
Stock and flow diagram
Stock / level:
Accumulation, or state variable - a quantity that accumulates over time
Change its value by accumulating or integrating rates
Change continuously over time even when the rates are changing
discontinuously
Flow/rate:
Activity, movement - change the values of levels
The value of a rate is
Not dependent on previous values of that rate
But dependent on the levels in a system along with exogenous influences
Auxiliary:
Arise when the formulation of a levels influence on a rate involves one or more
intermediate calculations
Used for ease of communication and clarity
Value changes immediately in response to changes in levels or exogenous
influences
Source and Sink:
Source represents systems of levels and rates outside the boundary of the
model
Sink is where flows terminate outside the system
 STOCKS AND FLOWS

Valves represent the flow of inventory into and out of the warehouse

Stock

Inventory
source sink

Production (inflow) Shipments (outflows)

Sources and sinks are outside the model boundary.

Stocks and Flows are used in Causal Loop Diagrams to cover some
of their limitations of not being able to capture stocks and flows
within systems (Sterman, 2000).
STOCKS AND FLOWS
 SYSTEMS ARCHTYPES
Archetype is name given to certain dynamics that seem to
recur in many different settings
They classic stories in systems thinking common pattern &
structure that occur repeatedly in different settings
Presents a way to describe system behavior without the rigors of
loops, stocks and flows, and computer modeling.
Consists of the combination of balancing & reinforcing loops
Types of Archetypes
Drifting goals:
Escalation
Fixes that backfire:
Limits of growth
Shifting the burden
A tragedy of common issues
Accidental adversaries
EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES

O
Pressure to DRIFTING GOALS
Goal lower goal
B2
A gap between a goal and an
S actual condition can be
S Gap resolved in by:
Taking a corrective
action to achieve the goal
O S or lowering the goal
B1 Drifting goal the goal is
Actual Corrective lowered to close the gap
Action Continual lowering gradually
S deteriorate performance
 EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES
ESCALATION
s As Result s s
o Bs Result

Activity Results of A Activity

by A B1 Results of B B2 by B
s
s
Threat Threat
s
to A to B
o

When one partys actions are perceived by another party to be a threat and
the second party respond in a similar manner further increasing a threat
Result in threatening actions by both parties grow exponentially
 EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES

FIXES THAT BACKFIRE

Problem Fix
Symptom

Original threshold of tolerance

delay
Unintended
consequences
Is akin to giving the squeaky wheel the grease.
The problem symptom alternately improves. It goes down, then comes
Back up again and usually comes back worse than before (Senge, 1994).
Strategies: Increase awareness, dont apply so many fixes, see if the
system might take care of itself in the long run, reframe and address the
root problem.
 EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES
LIMITS TO GROWTH

Actual
Problem performance Corrective
Symptom action

Helps us see how the balance between the elements shifts over time.
Growth occurs and sometimes dramatic but levels off and/or
falls into decline (Senge, 1994).
Strategies:
Beware of doing more of what worked in the past.
Look at both reinforcing and balancing loops is growth has stalled.
Find the limits, work within the limits but plan early, look for other
potential engines of growth.
 TUTORIAL

Construct a feedback loop to identify and map out the

operation in some environmental issue.
Discuss the difference between feed back loops, stock
and flow diagrams and causal loop.