FLOODS

Course Learning Outcome

CLO2
Develop flood mapping for reservoir and river, and assess
the risk of flooding.
 Outcomes

On completion of this session you should

be able to estimate flood peak using

1. Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies
 What is Flood?

It is a condition when water levels in the river get

high and start to overflow from its banks and
inundate the adjacent areas.

Flood Flood

River River
 Why Flood Prediction?

To design hydraulic structures (bridges, culverts

etc)
To avoid damages caused by floods to properties,
infrastructures and lives.
Estimation of Flood Peak

1.Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies
Estimation of Flood Peak

1.Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies
 1. Empirical Method

Empirical formula used are essentially regional formulae

developed for a region. They are based on statistical
correlation of the observed flood peaks and other
catchment properties.
Limited affecting parameters are considered.
In most cases, the flood frequency is neglected.
When applied to other areas, they can at best give
appropriate values.
Empirical formulae used in India are discussed in the
text book.
Estimation of Flood Peak

1.Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies
 2. Unit Hydrograph Method

The UH technique can be used to predict the peak-flood

hydrograph if the rainfall producing the flood,
infiltration characteristics of the catchment (-index)
and appropriate unit hydrograph (UH) are available.
The hyetograph of the rainfall excess (ERH) is obtained
and the rainfall excess (cm) is computed.
The derived UH of the catchment is used to generate
the desired flood hydrograph.
Applicable to catchments with area < 5000 km2.
Estimation of Flood Peak

1.Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies
 3. Rational Method

Widely used to predict peak-flow in urban drainage

designs and in design of small culverts and bridges.
Only applicable in small catchments up to 50 km2.
 3. Rational Method

Basic equation for calculation of the peak discharge:

C = Runoff coefficient = R/P
i = Mean rainfall intensity at tc
Qp = CiA A = Watershed area
tc = Time of concentration

For field application, the equation is modified to

CiA Qp = Peak discharge in m3/s

Qp i = Mean rainfall intensity at tc in mm/h
3.6 A = Drainage area in km2
Qp = CiA

Rainfall Intensity (i)

Rainfall intensity, i corresponding to a duration tc and the

desired probability of exceedence P:

KTrX
i
(tc a) n
Tr = Return period (yr) = 1/P
tc = Time of concentration (min)
P = Probability of occurrence of an event (rainfall) whose
magnitude is = or > than a specified value
K, a, x and n are specific to a given area
 Time of Concentration (tc)

The time taken for a drop of water to travel from the furthest
part of a catchment to the outlet.
Kirpich Equation:
tc 0.01947 Kl
0.77

0.385
tc 0.01947 L S 0.77 OR
L3
Kl
DH
tc = Time of concentration (in min)
L = Maximum length of main stream/ travel of water (m)
S = Slope of the watershed
DH = Elevation difference between the most remote point and the outlet
Runoff Coefficient (C) for
Homogeneous Catchment
 Runoff Coefficient (C) for
Agricultural & Forest Land Covers
 Runoff Coefficient (C) for
Non-Homogeneous Catchment
Determination of a weighted equivalent
runoff coefficient:
C3
C2
Ci Ai
Ce
A
C1 C4

Ci = Runoff coefficient for sub-areas C5

C6
Ai = Area for the sub areas

Outlet
 Tc = 27.4 min

tc 0.01947 L0.77S 0.385

85 ha = 85 x 104 m2
= 0.85 x 106 m2 = 0.85 km2

CiA
Qp
3.6
Qp in m3/s
i in mm/h
A in km2
50
0
450
 L3
tc 0.01947 Kl
0.77
Kl
DH

Qp in m3/s
CiA
Qp i in mm/h
A in km2
3.6
 50
0
450

CiA
Qp
3.6
Estimation of Flood Peak

1.Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies
 Flood Frequency Studies

Floods are complex natural events and are very difficult to

model analytically.
Prediction of flood flows can be performed by statistical
method of frequency analysis.
Frequency analysis is a means of estimating the probability of
future occurrences based on past data.
Flood frequency studies include
(1) Plotting position method If the data only require interpolations and
simple extrapolations.
(2) Extreme value distributions If the data require larger extrapolations.
Estimation of Flood Peak

1.Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies

Plotting Position Method

Extreme Value Distribution
 (1) Plotting Position Method

Rainfall or
Discharge, Q Interpolation Extrapolation

Return Period
 (1) Plotting Position Method

The probability of occurrence of an event (i.e. storm, flood)

whose magnitude is equal to or in excess of a specified
magnitude X is denoted as P.
Plotting position formulae:
 Plotting Position Method
The most common plotting position formula is the Weibull
Formula:
P = m / (N +1)

m = order number of the event (1,2,3N)

N = total number of events in the data

Another way of expressing the probability of an event to

occur is by using recurrence interval or return period.

T = 1/P
 (1) Plotting Position Method
Example 1

Year 01 02 03 04 05 06
Rainfall (cm) 9 17 15 8 10 5

For a station A, the recorded annual 24 h maximum rainfall

are given above. Estimate the 24 h maximum rainfall with
return period of 5 year.
 (1) Plotting Position Method
Example 1
Year 01 02 03 04 05 06
Rainfall (cm) 9 17 15 8 10 5

m P (cm) P = m/ (N +1) = m/7 T = 1/P

1 17 0.143 7.00
2 15 0.286 3.50
3 10 Descending 0.429 2.33
order
4 9 0.571 1.75
5 8 0.714 1.40
6 5 0.857 1.17
 (1) Plotting Position Method
Example 1

Semilog Paper
Variable (e.g. Q)

Normal scales

Log scale

Return Period, T
 Plotting Position Method
Example 1
Estimate the 24 h maximum rainfall with return period of 5 year.

20
18
Maximum rainfall (cm)

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
In logarithmic scale
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Return period T in years T5
 (1) Plotting Position Method
Example 2
For a station A, the recorded annual 24 h maximum rainfall are
given below:
Estimate the 24 h maximum rainfall with return periods of
13 & 50 years.
What would be the probability of a rainfall of magnitude
equal to or exceeding 10 cm occurring in 24 h at station A?

Year 1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
Rainfall (cm) 13.0 12.0 7.6 14.3 16.0 9.6 8.0 12.5 11.2 8.9 8.9
Year 1961 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71
Rainfall (cm) 7.8 9.0 10.2 8.5 7.5 6.0 8.4 10.8 10.6 8.3 9.5
 (1) Plotting Position Method
Example 2
m Rainfall P= T = 1/P m Rainfall P= T = 1/P
(cm) m/(N+1) (years) (cm) m/(N+1) (years)
1 16.0 0.043 23.00 12 9.0 0.522 1.92
2 14.3 0.087 11.50 13 8.9 - -
3 13.0 0.130 7.67 14 8.9 0.609 1.64
4 12.5 0.174 5.75 15 8.5 0.652 1.53
5 12.0 0.217 4.60 16 8.4 0.696 1.44
6 11.2 0.261 3.83 17 8.3 0.739 1.35
7 10.8 0.304 3.29 18 8.0 0.783 1.28
8 10.6 0.348 2.88 19 7.8 0.826 1.21
9 10.2 0.391 2.56 20 7.6 0.870 1.15
10 9.6 0.435 2.30 21 7.5 0.913 1.10
11 9.5 0.478 2.09 22 6.0 0.957 1.05
The data are arranged in descending order and the probability & recurrence
intervals of various events are calculated as shown in table in next slide (N = 22)
 (1) Plotting Position Method
Example 2
A graph is plotted between the rainfall magnitudes and the
return period T on a semi-log scale.
A smooth curve is drawn through plotted points and the curve
is extended by judgment. 20
18

Rainfall magnitude (cm)

16
14
12
10
8
6
4
1 10 100
Return period T (year)
 (1) Plotting Position Method
Example 2
20
18 (a) Estimate the 24 h maximum rainfall
Rainfall magnitude (cm)

16 with return periods of 13 & 50 years.

14 (b) What would be the probability of a
12 rainfall of magnitude equal to or
10 exceeding 10 cm occurring in 24 h at
8
station A?
6
4
1 10 100
Return period T (year)
(a) From the graph:
For return period T = 13 yrs rainfall magnitude = 14.55 cm

For return period T = 50 yrs rainfall magnitude = 18.75 cm

(b) From the graph

For rainfall = 10 cm, T = 2.4 yrs , P = 1/T = 0.417
Estimation of Flood Peak

1.Empirical Method
2. Unit Hydrograph Method

3. Rational Method

4. Flood-Frequency Studies

Plotting Position Method

Extreme Value Distribution
(2) Extreme Value Distributions

Rainfall or
Discharge, Q
Larger Extrapolation

Interpolation

Return Period
(2) Extreme Value Distributions

Some of the commonly used frequency distribution

functions for the prediction of extreme flood values are:

Gumbels extreme-value distribution

Log-Pearson Type III distribution
Log normal distribution
 (2) Extreme Value Distributions

The general equation for the hydrologic frequency analysis:

xT = x + K

xT = Value of the variate X of a random hydrologic series with a return

period T
x = Mean of the variate
= Standard deviation of the variate
K = Frequency factor which depends on T and the frequency distribution
 (2) Extreme Value Distributions
Gumbels Method
The extreme value distribution was introduced by Gumbel
(1941) and is commonly known as Gumbels distribution.
It is one of the most widely used probability distribution
functions for extreme values in hydrologic and meteorological
studies for prediction of flood peaks, maximum rainfalls,
maximum wind speed, etc.
 (2) Extreme Value Distributions
Gumbels Equation for Practice Use

The value of the variate X

with a return period T:
x x K n1

Frequency factor: Reduced mean, Standard deviation of

Table 7.3 the sample of size N:
yT yn
K ( x x ) 2
Sn Reduced standard n1
deviation, Table 7.4 N 1

Reduced variate as a function of T:

T T
yT 0.834 2.303 log log ln . ln
T 1 T 1
Note: For large sample size, N , yn 0.577

Note: For large sample size, N , Sn 1.2825

Weibull
formula
Plotting Position Method
 Extreme Value Distributions
Gumbels Method
Verify whether the Gumbel extreme-value distribution fit the recorded values.

1951-1977 (1977 1951 + 1 = 27 years) ( x x ) 2

n1
N 1

T
yT ln . ln
T 1
yT yn
K
Sn
x x K n1
 Extreme Value Distributions
Gumbels Method

T = 5 years

T = 20 years
Extreme Value Distributions
Gumbels Method

.
 Qp (m3/s)

46300

40809

T (yr)
lg 50 lg 100 lg 500
 46300 40809
m 18240.7
m lg 100 lg 50

Y mX c c Y mX Qp mT
c 46300 18240.7(lg100) 9818.6

Qp 18240.7T 9818.6

T lg 500 Qp 18240.7(lg 500) 9818.6 59000m3 / s

x x K n1
yT yn
K
Sn
T
yT ln . ln
T 1
 Risks

Risk, R is the probability of an event to occur at least once

over a period of n successive years.
Risk is given by, R 1 (1 P) n

If P = 1/T, then 1 n
R 1 (1 )
T

where, P is the probability, T is the return period (yr) and

n is the expected life of the structure (yr).
 x x K n1
yT yn
K
Sn
T
yT ln . ln
T 1

RISK
 Gumbels Method
Confidence Limits

The results of the frequency analysis depend upon the length

of data.
Minimum number of years of record required to obtain
satisfactory estimates is 30 years and length of record less
than 10 years should not be adopted.
An estimate of the confidence limits of the estimate is
desirable to account the errors due to the limited sample data
used.
 Gumbels Method
Confidence Limits

For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of the

variate x is bounded by values x1 and x2:
x1/ 2 x f (c)Se

where f(c) = function of c determined by

c (%) 50 68 80 90 95 99
f(c) 0.674 1.00 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.580

Probable error Se b
n1 n1
1 1.3K 1.1K 2

N N
 T
yT ln . ln
T 1
yT yn
K
Sn
x x K n1
n1 n1
Se b 1 1.3K 1.1K 2

N N
 x1/ 2 x f (c)Se
c (%) 50 68 80 90 95 99
f(c) 0.674 1.00 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.580