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Pulse on Trade PRESENTED BY

ag take
fluence media | high stakes media consulting and influential content strategies

Trade Projections from


the USDA May 2017
U.S. agricultural exports are projected to rise in fiscal year
(FY) 2017, driven by livestock, grain/feed, and cotton
exports.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2017 are forecast at $114.5


billion, unchanged from February and $1.4 billion above the
total for FY 2016. Expected increases in imports of Grain and feed exports are
oilseeds and sugar/tropical products are offset by forecast at $29.0 billion, up
lower expected imports of horticultural and $400 million, driven by a larger
livestock/dairy products. volume for wheat and higher
unit values for rice.
FY 2017 agricultural exports are projected at $137.0 billion,
up $1.0 billion from the February forecast, as increases The forecast for livestock,
are expected in livestock, grain/feed, and cotton. poultry, and dairy exports is
raised $600 million this month
The FY 2017 livestock, dairy, and poultry import to $28.7 billion due to an
forecast is lowered $200 million from the February expected increase in red meat
forecast to $15.6 billion. Higher domestic beef and cattle shipments that more than
production has reduced demand for imported beef from offsets slight declines in the
Oceania and cattle from Canada and Mexico. poultry and dairy forecasts.
https://mn.gov/deed/data/export-stats/

TRADE ATTITUDES Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation

Overall Rural Jobs + Economy


38% 53% 56%
Rural Americans say that their Rural Americans say their Rural Americans say their
community has lost farming community has lost community has not recovered
and agriculture jobs in the manufacturing jobs in the from these job losses
past 10 years. past 10 years

ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Americans views of how free trade agreements have affected
their families finances have shown less change in recent years.

44% say free trade 38% say free trade


POLITICS
agreements have agreements have
definitely or probably definitely or probably
helped their finances. hurt their finances.
Political partisanship is linked to
views of NAFTA, most notably in
the U.S.
OTHER COUNTRIES
FAVORING NAFTA In Canada, large majorities across the political
68% of Democrats spectrum support NAFTA, according to the
30% of Republicans Centers new survey.
FAVORING NAFTA
83% of 82% of 70% of the New
NAFTA BAD FOR U.S.A Conservatives Liberals Democratic Party
33% of Republicans
6% of Democrats That compares with 74% of Canadians who say the agreement
has been good for Canada, including 20% who say it has been
very good.
SKEPTICAL OF FREE
TRADE AGREEMENTS In Mexico, 68% of (PAN) believe NAFTA has been
a good thing for Mexico. A smaller majority of
53% of Republicans
(PRI) supporters (59%) agree.
37% of Democrats

FAVORING NAFTA
68% of the National 59% of the Institutional
Action Party (PAN) Revolutionary Party (PRI)

Among Mexicans, 60% see NAFTA as being good for their coun-
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/support-for-free-trade-
agreements-rebounds-modestly-but-wide-partisan-differences-remain/
try, including 10% who hold that view strongly.

Millennials on Free Trade Agreements


3 in 5 Believe President Trumps Plan to End Unfair Trade Practices Will Make
America Better. When asked about a set of President Trumps proposed policies using
the administrations policy language.

60% say that cracking down on countries illegal and unfair trade practices
that hurt American workers would make America better.

13% respond that it would make America worse.


Young Americans from each party view ending unfair trade practices favorably. 85% of
Republicans believe it would make America better, along with 50% of Democrats
and 58% of Independents.
http://www.mda.state.mn.us/~/media/Files/food/business/economics/agexportprofile.pdf

WISCONSIN SNAPSHOT
Wisconsins rural voters were far more opposed to trade
deals than the states suburban or urban voters

64% 26%
Rural voters from WIsconsin Rural voters from WIsconsin said they
said trade pacts with other create jobs, according to exit poll data
countries take away jobs provided by Edison Research.

6% 22.5%
of the rural population lived in of the rural population lived in manufacturing-
farming-depenent counties in dependent counties
2015

Fluence Media, PO Box 270031 Golden Valley, MN 55427 contact: bolson@fluence-media.com JUNE 2017

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