Shawn Stamper

June 29, 2017

1. TEKS - 7.6(I) Determine experimental and 2. Big Understanding Weatherman use

theoretical probabilities related to simple probability to create forecasts. What does it
and compound events using data and sample mean if there is a 10% chance of rain? Other
spaces. professions, such as scientists, economists,
health professionals, and law enforcement use
Objective By the end of the lesson, students statistics to determine the likelihood of
will calculate theoretical probabilities for events.
simple events.
3. Assessment Evidence Students will complete mini-labs where they will calculate the
theoretical probability for a simple event, then collect experimental data for the events.
Students will compare their theoretical computations with their experimental data.
4. Opening Hook Upon entering the class, students will be randomly handed a playing card
from a standard deck. We will then work through calculating the experimental probabilities
and comparing that with what the students received. Bias can be added to a deck, the
distribution repeated, and then discuss how biased data can change results.
5. Input From the hook, we will begin instruction on determining simple theoretical
probabilities.

Vocab Set, sample space, simple event, theoretical probability, experimental probability,
randomly

Supporting standards fractions, cross-multiplication

Modeling Using a deck of cards, teacher describes a simple event, calculates the theoretical
probability, and presents the data.

Guided Practice / Monitoring In table groups, students calculate theoretical probabilities for
certain events. Teacher moves throughout table groups ensuring students understand.

Check for Understanding Table groups will fill in their calculated probabilities on a whole-
class chart. These results will be compared with the actual distribution of cards from the
beginning of class.
6. Materials / Resources Whiteboard, smartboard, projector, coin, die, playing cards

Technology Teacher will use projector to keep a chart of the data and display it for the class.
7. Grouping Patterns Students will work in table groups. Table groups will always be
arranged with multiple skill levels.
8. Ending, Summary, Reflection Students will be asked the following questions:
a. Did our calculated probabilities match the actual cards? Was this difference large or
small?
b. (If not) Why do we think the actual cards varied from the calculated values?
c. If we continued to run the experiment, do we think the difference between the actual
cards and the calculated probability will get bigger or smaller?