Electric Vehicles State of Charge and Spatial
Distribution Forecasting: a High-Resolution Model
F. Bizzarri, F. Bizzozero, A. Brambilla, G. Gruosso, G. Storti Gajani
Politecnico di Milano,
Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria
Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32 - I-20133 Milano
Email: giambattista.gruosso@polimi.it
AbstractIn the near future Electrical Vehicless (EVs) will
most likely replace conventional combustion-engine based ones.
This and the increase in the use of renewable energy sources
will have an important positive impact on our ecosystem. At
the same time it will require a serious reanalysis and possibly
redesign of the structure of our distribution network. In this
paper we propose a model that, at a relatively ne level, describes
the behavior of communities in terms of transport requirements,
derives statistic driving behavior patterns and determines the
corresponding induced Electric Vehicle Charging habits. The
energy consumption of every simulated EV is computed taking
into account the features of the trip and the vehicle itself. The
model has been tailored to data extracted from a portion of the
Milan (Italy) metropolitan area, but is trivially adaptable to any
area for which a similar set of data is available. The obtained
results are compared to data from similar works, showing good
agreement.
The outputs of the model, i.e. the energy consumption of the
vehicles and their time-spatial distribution within a specic
area (and consequently the loads on the distribution network
nodes due to charging operations), have been (and will be) used
to perform impact analyses on network performances and on
personal mobility.
Index TermsElectrical Vehicle Performance Forecasting,
Smart Grids, Load Demand forecasting, State of Charge of EV
I. I NTRODUCTION
The main actors on the EV market expect a 400% growth
in annual sales of plug-in EV by 2023 and this will certainly
have substantial effects on the way people use electrical energy
and on peak demand to the distribution infrastructure [1], [2].
The ability to forecast customer charging patterns can help
the operators to manage infrastructure control and to plan
the investments needed to handle large and increasing vehicle
charging loads. At the same time the future perspective of
using EVs as storage systems in smart grids, the so called
Vehicle to Grid (V 2 G), requires an accurate forecast of the
availability of the vehicles, their state of charge and the place
where they are.
Indeed, vehicle charging habits will create new load prole
distributions and introduce new problems due to the stochastic
behavior model of car owners. Several studies have presented
methodologies to forecast Electrical Vehicle Charging (EVC)
patterns in order to estimate load proles, but, to the authors
knowledge, none of these fully consider the joint effects of
people habits, vehicle state of charge and commuters proles
(i.e. means of transport, time and place of departure/arrival,
978-1-5090-3474-1/16/$31.00 2016 IEEE 3942
duration of the trip, traveled distance) [3][5].
The purpose of this paper is to present a new model of EV
usage and corresponding EVC patterns, suited to forecast time-
spatial distribution of vehicles and their battery charge status
within an area.
The implemented model has been developed to be employed,
for example, in EV charging impact analyses. In particular, it
is interesting to consider a scenario where the only adopted
charging mode is slow charging and where the system hosts a
complete replacement of conventional vehicles with EVs, but
without the implementation of dedicated new infrastructures.
This would be intentionally an extreme scenario and does
not match the most common forecast of a mixed contribution
of slow and fast charging modes.
The proposed approach can forecast, at each time, the spatial
distribution (within a specic area) and state of charge of
EV s, according to their expected transitions. Each transition is
dened as a single run of a specic vehicle at a specic time
from a starting location to a different end location. Transitions
are generated by a statistical model that combines use of time
and commuting data forecasting based on real data for an
urban Italian context. The model considers all the information
required to compute the energy consumption of an EV during
a transition. It rst takes as input the traveled distance and
duration of a trip, previously assigned to every transition of
an individual; then it generates a driving cycle for that trip;
nally it computes the energy consumption depending on the
type of vehicle. Six different real EVs have been considered,
each with its specic characteristics in terms of battery size
and energy consumption in various driving conditions.
As previously mentioned, the developed model is detailed and
realistic, because:
it takes into account transportation habits of people living
or working in the analysed area (i.e. time and duration
of the trip, traveled distance, means of transport used),
derived from survey data of the city of Milan;
it denes the spatial distribution of EVs on the distribution
network;
it generates driving patterns based on real world driving
cycles and on trip characteristics, derived from actual
data;
it considers different vehicle models and their features to
 compute the energy consumption.
The paper is organized as follows: Section II provides a
description of both the transportation model, that forecasts the
spatial distribution of the vehicles and their state of charge
and the consumption model, that evaluates the required battery
power, based on trip and vehicle features. In Section III the
output of the model is shown and discussed. In Section IV
the conclusions are drawn and further work is proposed. In
particular two possible applications of the developed model
are presented: the rst one aims to investigate how EVs affect
private mobility, while the second one deals with the eval-
uation of EVC loads effect on power network performances.
These applications results are not exhaustively illustrated; they
are intended to be only a hint on possible researches on this
topic.
II. M ODEL D ESCRIPTION
The model proposed in this section can be subdivided in two
main parts: the rst part is a transport habit simulator, based
on a simplied geographic model of the considered area. This
area includes residential buildings, commercial buildings and
leisure subareas. It is also assumed that there are commercial
and leisure destinations that are outside this area. At the
current stage of this work, a low voltage distribution network
is used only to dene the topology of the area (but it is not
simulated). It is indeed a useful guideline to locate residential
and commercial buildings and, consequently, to evaluate the
spatial distribution of the vehicles that depart or arrive in the
selected area.
For each person represented in the model, and thus supposed
to be either resident in the area being modeled or employed
in one of its commercial buildings, the model constructs
information regarding:
means of transport used;
departure and arrival locations;
duration of the transition between these two places and
length of the followed path.
The second part is an EV energy consumption proler, based
on the outputs produced by the rst part of the model. The
consumption model generates a realistic driving pattern for
each transition made by a car; then, using a physical model
of the vehicle, the energy consumption is computed. A more
detailed description of these two main parts of the model is
given in the following subsections.
A. Personal transportation model
Given any time window, there are people moving in or out
the area of interest, that has been chosen as a portion of the
Milan (Italy) metropolitan area. This rst part of the model
uses different sources of data to characterize the behavior
of two classes of citizens: the community of residents and
that of people interacting with the commercial buildings.
People transiting through the area covered by the network and
not interacting with commercial or residential buildings, for
simplicity, are not taken into account.
The data characterizing the resident community has been
3943
obtained from a very basic and large statistic dataset describing
family compositions and their activities in and outside home.
The source used is the 2008/2009 time-use survey (TUS) [6],
conducted by the Italian national statistics institute (Istat).
Concerning non residents interacting with commercial build-
ings, their behavior has been extrapolated using information
derived by rescaling reference buildings data in the Energyplus
software model by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) [7].
Using these data sources it is possible to create, in any given
time window, a set of transitions, initially dened by a start
or end time and location. These locations have the additional
constraint of being low voltage distribution nodes of our area.
Once this set is dened, the complete description of the
transition (i.e. means of transport adopted, trip duration and
distance, origin and destination point) is nally created by
using the Istat 2011 Commuting Matrix [8] complemented,
only for the residents, by additional data found in the cited
TUS database. The interested reader can nd further details on
the proposed methodology in [9].
More details about personal transportation models are given
in the following subsections.
1) Resident community: The starting point to dene the
characteristics of each transition is the TUS database, consist-
ing in diaries where people in the sampling set annotated on
a daily basis all their activities. In the diaries, each trip is
accounted for with details that include duration and means of
transport. Information from the TUS database is extracted in
this way:
1) the interviewees living in the city of Milan are selected
and tted into separate classes based on employment
status, age, family size etc.
2) diaries recorded in the TUS database belonging to people
of the same class are grouped and extracted;
3) for each group, transitions are recognized in the recorded
patterns and allocated in a separate database, namely
transitions database, where the trip purpose (e.g. work,
leisure etc.), duration and means of transport are stored;
4) these same groups and diaries are also used to generate
a Markov chain based model capable of synthesizing
individual activity patterns consistent with that found in
the TUS database (see e.g. [9], [10]).
Using statistics related to the city of Milan, a set of families
and their activity patterns are created. Each time a transition
happens, the model associates a random mean of transport,
extracted from the previously created transitions database. To
generate the trip duration value a Probability Density Function
(PDF) is tted to the sample of trip durations extracted from
the transitions database and with that PDF, a random duration
is assigned to each transition. Now each trip is characterized
by a means of transport and a duration. Finally, if the selected
means of transport is car, each transition is fully dened
by assigning a destination and the distance traveled, with a
random choice from the Commuting Matrix data.
The personal transportation model should generate a realistic
set of transitions and all the trips must show overall coherence

Fig. 1. Flowchart of the proposed methodology.
not just as seen from the aggregated level of the entire
population, but also at a ner level, i.e. for each modeled
person.
In Fig. 1 the owchart of the proposed approach is shown.
The rules used in the proposed model and satised in the
assignment of the means of transportation and trip duration
for each kind of transition made by the individual ensure the
desired multi-scale level coherence:
1) trips are considered differently if one travels using public
or private transport:
private transport can be selected only from home
and then, if so, the trip back home must be done
with the same vehicle. Private vehicles can be used
for trips not including home (work leisure)
only if, in a previous transition, the same vehicle
was already used to leave home;
with public transport there are no constraints to
do the same transition back and forth with same
vehicle, but it must still be a public means of
transport;
2) forward and backward trips must have the same duration,
with a maximum allowed difference of ten minutes;
3) the eet of private vehicles in each home is well dened
and at time of the transition vehicles already taken out
by other residents in that home cannot be used;
4) no transition of any kind may last less that ve minutes
3944
0HGLXPRIILFHEXLOGLQJ:HHNGD\
100
(mployees in the building
9ariation of employees
80
6hare of the total employees [%]
60
40
20
-20
-40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 +ours
Fig. 2. Occupancy schedule example for medium ofce building on week
day and variation of employees during the day in percent values.
and no transition may last more than the time spent in
the arrival place.
Having a coherent set of transitions inside each family allows
us to create a simulation which is realistic both for what
concerns use of vehicles and evolution of battery state of
charge during the day (and thus the energy required for a
complete recharge). To create a coherent model for transitions
of household components, it is sufcient to know which means
of transport is used and how much time the transition takes. To
compute the energy consumption of an EV due to a transition
it is necessary to know also information about the distance
traveled.
2) Non resident community: Behavior of employees is not
represented as a stochastic succession of various kind of
activities, but it is rigidly coded as a series of schedules. In
order to dene these schedules, EnergyPlus software and Com-
mercial Reference Building (CRB) [11] are used. Developed
by DOE, the CRBs are standard energy models for the most
common commercial buildings in the U.S., providing complete
descriptions for whole building energy consumption, equip-
ment use and occupancy schedule. The CRBs to simulate are
selected by considering the categories of buildings in Milan:
small/medium/large ofce, quick/full service restaurant, strip
mall, stand-alone retail, supermarket. Since the size of these
models is not referred to Italy, all the outputs are adapted by
scaling according to the total surface of the various buildings
considered in our model.
The occupation schedule represents the share of total em-
ployees present at work at each hour (Fig. 2); it thus con-
tains the information needed as only input for the personal
transportation model for employees: the variation of people
number in the building between time steps. When there is
an increment of employees, the model of personal mobility
denes a transition from home to work for each new person.
When there is a decrement, the return trips for the associated
number of employees are computed (in the model it is assumed
that the rst to arrive is the rst to leave).
In order to obtain the properties required to dene a transition,
the procedure rstly selects a sample of recorded trips from
the Commuting Matrix, depending on arrival time at work;
then, from this sample, one of the trips is randomly chosen
and the recorded characteristics for that trip are assigned to the
modeled transition. As in the previous resident transportation
model, also in this case similar coherence rules are imposed.
B. Vehicle Behaviour modelling
To compute high resolution personal transportation energy
consumption patterns, three main modeling steps are required:
1) modeling the behavior of drivers in order to establish
when driving events occur over the simulation time
horizon and the duration and length of each event;
2) generation of realistic driving proles for each driving
event, including speed and acceleration of the vehicle
for the entire transition (velocity prole);
3) simulation of different kind of vehicles in order to
compute energy consumption starting from a velocity
prole.
The rst step has been addressed in the previous section. The
second step is possibly the most interesting and is character-
ized by a still open debate in the scientic community: there
is indeed a wealth of literature on driving cycle construction
[12], [13]. In the past, driving cycle denition was carried out
by means of stylized driving patterns derived from articial
tests or standard cycles based on real trafc behavior. In
[13], a standard test is used to create the vehicle consumption
model: three standard driving cycles are selected to represent
urban, rural and highway cycles; then they are combined to
create a mixed cycle, applied to each vehicle in the eet. This
model is very simple and does not allow to represent the
great variability present in all possible transitions. Recently,
the concept of real world driving cycle has been introduced.
Basically, developing real world driving cycles involves:
recording driving conditions using one or several instru-
mented vehicles;
analyzing the above data in order to synthetically char-
acterize these conditions;
developing representative cycles for these conditions.
In [5] a high resolution stochastic model of driving pat-
terns was presented. Driving patterns are generated through
a Markov-chain approach and Transition Probability Matrix is
realized from a huge database of real world driving cycles.
This method achieves good performances, but relies on data
that are not in general easy to obtain.
The proposed compromise, already introduced in [14][17]
and here deeply improved, is an algorithm that produces high
resolution driving patterns, tailored for each modeled transition
starting from the following available data:
three real world based cycles derived during the European
research project ARTEMIS [18], whose combination is
used to create mixed cycles;
all the properties previously derived for each transition
in the model (duration, distance, city of origin and
destination).
The ARTEMIS driving cycles (urban, rural, highway) are
chosen for two main reasons: 1) they are representative of
real world driving cycles and 2) the project is located in
3945
,deal &')for the fleet
1ormalized number of vehicles in the fleet
1
$ctual vehicles inWKHIOHHW
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
iMi-EV Smart Leaf Volt Rav4EV Audi concept
Fig. 3. Actual modeled eet, divided by model, with respect to the ideal
distribution.
Europe, thus it is most suited to represent typical driving
behavior for our target area.
C. Vehicle consumption model
The EV electricity consumption in a transition is modeled
taking into account the movement of the vehicle (as in the
standard models described in [14][17], and the load due
to auxiliary services (e.g. heating, cooling, lights.). Different
energy requirement parameters corresponding to different ve-
hicles are addressed by considering six distinct EVs (Table I).
Data on the actual segmentation of the Italian eet were taken
from UNRAE car registrations database and the proportion
assigned to each vehicle is showed in the last column of Table
I. Vehicles are assigned to trips in a completely random way,
without any correlation with the length of the trip.
In Fig. 3 the actual eet produced for a simulation is compared
with the ideal Cumulative Density Function (CDF) of the
eet distribution. In this simulation a total of 225 residential
buildings and 34 commercial buildings are modeled. During
a simulated (working) day, a total of 181 vehicles are used
and the gure represents the simulated eet, grouped by
model, with respect to the ideal distribution. Each orange dot
represents an EV and the normalized sum of every dot in a
column is the percentage of that specic vehicle model in the
eet. These results are compared with the CDF of the ideal
distribution, denoted by the blue stepped line.
III. R ESULTS
To summarize, the entire process dening the energy con-
sumption of an EV during an assigned transition can be divided
in the following steps:
1) the information relative to time duration, distance trav-
eled, departure and arrival place are dened from previ-
ous steps in the global simulation;
2) a mixed driving cycle is generated;
3) the power and energy consumption during that cycle is
computed for a randomly assigned vehicle.
In Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, two examples of a synthetically generated
transitions and corresponding power requirements are shown.
In Fig. 4 speed and related battery power output of a Nissan
 TABLE I
S IMULATED EVS FEATURES AND COMPOSITION OF THE FLEET

Model Mass [kg] Battery size [kWh] Battery rated power [kW] Max charging power [kW] Share in the eet [%]
Mitsubishi i-MiEV 1080 16 47 44 20
Smart Electric Drive 975 17.6 55 22 30
Nissan Leaf 1493 24 80 44 23
Chevrolet Volt 1721 17.1 111 4.8 13
Toyota RAV4 EV 1830 41.8 115 9.6 10
Audi e-tron Quattro 2670 95 324 150 4

100 services, the test is ran several times with different external
3ower output from the battery
80 6peed of the vehicle temperatures. The results are compared to values obtained by
3ercent of the maximum value [%]

60
two different mixed cycles [13]: the European Transient Cycle
40
(ETC) and a cycle which is declared to be derived from actual
trafc data from Flanders. The vehicles adopted are the same
20
(with the exception of Audi Concept Car instead of Audi e-
0
tron quattro). In Table II it can be noticed that the simulation
-20
results are consistent with other works: the proposed model
-40 values are positioned roughly halfway between the two cycles
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
from [13]. The values in the last row are not comparable since
7ime [s]
they refer to different vehicles.
Fig. 4. Instantaneous output power from the battery and speed for a Nissan The last two columns of Table II compare the EPA test range
Leaf in a mixed urban/rural cycle in which the vehicle travels for 25 km in with the computed driving range: also in this case results show
30 minutes.
very good agreement. The only anomaly is the case of the Audi
e-tron quattro: the EPA test has not been performed for this
1LVVDQ/HDINPPLQXWHVPD[VSHHG NPK

vehicle and the adopted reference driving range is the value
 provided by the manufacturer.

 IV. C ONCLUSION
1RUPDOL]HGTXDQWLWLHV







             
%DWWHU\FKDUJH
Fig. 5. Instantaneous output power from the battery and speed for a Nissan
Leaf for a trip duration of 170 minutes and distance of 126 km.
Leaf in a mixed urban/rural cycle for a trip duration of 30
minutes and distance of 25 km are plotted.
Fig. 5 shows the speed of the vehicle, the power output and
the battery charge. The plot is referred to a trip duration of
170 minutes and distance of 126 km. The model proves to be
well designed and tuned: the power requirements computed
match the rated autonomy by U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) test, that is 121 km (2013 update).
In order to understand if the proposed vehicle consumption
model produces overall reasonable results, the outputs for
the six different vehicles are compared with values reported
in [13] and with the average range of the vehicle rated by
EPA. In order to include in the analysis all the possible
external conditions that affect the consumption of auxiliary
In this paper a model providing a forecast of EV use and of
the corresponding energy requirements at a ne level has been
introduced. This model describes the behavior of communities
in terms of transport requirements, statistic driving behav-
ior patterns and the corresponding induced Electric Vehicle
Charging habits. The energy consumption of every simulated
6HFRQGV EV is computed by taking into account the features of both
6SHHG %DWWHU\RXWSXWSRZHU
the trip and the vehicle. The present analysis is focused on
a portion of the city of Milan, but it can be easily adapted
to other regions. The obtained results concerning the general
performances of the simulated vehicle traveling the generated
trips have been compared to data from similar works, showing
good agreement.
The model has been successfully applied to perform different
analyses. For example, to investigate how EVs affect private
mobility, the proposed model has been used to generate data
about the residual battery charge after each performed trip in
the simulation. The residual battery charge can be dened as
the charge left at the end of a round trip (i.e. trip between two
connections to a charging station). A constant power slow-
charging mode (i.e. EVC based on common household power
systems) is assumed: as soon as the vehicle is connected to
the charging station (that could be both home or workplace), a
constant power is supplied until the charge is completed. Fig.
6 shows the share of performed trips causing the vehicle to run
out of battery charge (meaning that that particular trip could
not be performed with that vehicle) compared to the share of

3946
 TABLE II
C OMPARISON AMONG AVERAGE ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER KM FOR STANDARD ETC CYCLES , F LANDERS CYCLES AND COMPUTED MIXED CYCLES
AND COMPARISON BETWEEN EPA AND COMPUTED RANGE FOR THE SIX CONSIDERED VEHICLES

ETC cycle [13] Flanders mixed cycle [13] Proposed mixed cycles EPA test range Proposed model range
Model
[kWh/km] [kWh/km] [kWh/km] [km] [km]
Mitsubishi i-MiEV 0.186 0.158 0.167 100 95
Smart Electric Drive 0.188 0.155 0.166 101 106
Nissan Leaf 0.201 0.174 0.189 121 126
Chevrolet Volt 0.217 0.200 0.200 85 85.5
Toyota RAV4 EV 0.266 0.227 0.229 153 182.5
Audi e-tron Quattro 0.320 0.270 0.253 500 375

:inter 6pring 6ummer

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