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2017 Chinese art auction industry trends and

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Since the 18th century, as the European economy gradually pick up, Woman full of dark brown spots full of confide
Two thousand years is not rot female woman was
art gradually market, the auction industry began to flourish, the world's Slag man confessed to be rejected by the wisdo
first auction company Sotheby's in 1744 was established, after Christie's, Alert! 2017 well-known enterprises "killed" li

Phillips and other auctions gradually enter the market. During the Second

World War, works of art auction into a low ebb, but the subsequent economic
recovery for the auction of art to add momentum, the industry to maintain a
mature and steady development.

Chinese art auction industry was born in the 1990s, in the past 20

years, the rapid growth of the auction industry, a large number of

outstanding works of art and financial capital into the market, a number of
outstanding auction house also gradually come to the fore. As of 2015,
global art turnover of about 16 billion US dollars, of which China's
turnover of about 4.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 30% of the global

market, is second only to the United States the world's second largest art Sankei News Industry Politics

market.
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Compared with the overseas mature auction market, the domestic 8 US researchers used two new technologies to
9 Guangzhou: Accelerate the development of bi
auction industry has its own particularity. On the one hand, the
10 South Africa's first nano-satellite designe
development time of the domestic auction house is short, the market
environment is still not perfect, the credit problem is frequent, which
leads to the confirmation of the income of the auction house, the
settlement of profits and so on. On the other hand, the domestic legal
system and tax arrangement Cultural relics auction has a special provision,
the auction house business model and market composition is also different
from overseas.

From the auction house financial treatment point of view, the

overseas auction house to confirm the current income, that is, the auction
hammer turnover in accordance with the commission to confirm the proportion
of revenue, and domestic auction due to differences in market environment,
from the auction hammer to the transaction cycle is longer, and income
Confirm the need to wait for the actual settlement is completed, usually
received a full amount or installment accumulated more than a large
proportion of commission income after confirmation. Therefore, the domestic
auction house income, profits reflect the transaction time there is a long
time lag, the general spring auction transactions basically in the annual
earnings to begin to reflect, and autumn auction transactions need to enter
the report in the second year.

Reference to the domestic auction industry association data, then

the turnover of the second year in May the end of the settlement date in
the past four years have remained in the 55% to 60% range, the settlement
period is longer. On behalf of the advance is the auction line in advance
of the settlement before the seller to pay the money in advance, from
overseas Sotheby's and domestic Kuangshi international generation on behalf
of the settlement date, Sotheby's settlement days in 20 days, and Kuang
International is up to 220 days.
 Sotheby's and Kuangshi international advance payment settlement days

Source: Public information

Calendar year auction settlement progress

Source: Public information

In addition, because the domestic auction house is highly

competitive and has strong market characteristics of the seller, the

auction house in practice is usually only to the buyer to receive
commission, and for different levels of customers to adopt a flexible
commission policy, so the overall commission rate is lower than overseas
counterparts. We estimate that the auction rate of Poly Culture in 2014 was
only 12%, which was significantly lower than the 15% level of Sotheby's.

In 2014, the actual overseas commission rate is higher than the domestic
level

Source: Public information

From the global auction market, after more than 100 years of Ebb

Tide, Sotheby's, Christie's and other auction houses stand out as a leader
in overseas auction market, turnover, trading volume far more than other
auction houses, into the oligopoly market structure The Domestic auction
house in the policy protection, the market expansion of the background, the
emergence of a number of outstanding auction house, the market into the
rush stage. From 2015, the world's top ten art auction house, the Chinese
auction house accounted for 6 seats. They are auction for Poly, China
Guardian, Beijing Kuangshi, Shanghai Golden Harvest, Xilingyinshe and
Beijing Hanhai.

2015 auction total turnover of the top 10 auction house

Number of
Auction Total turnover
Serial number Country pieces
company (USD)
(pieces)
1 Christie's United Kingdom 4,968,338,763 19,238
2 Sotheby's United Kingdom 4,570,332,893 14,805
3 Poly auction China 833,136,882 9,922
4 China Guardian China 553,020,191 7,695
5 Phillips United Kingdom 397,524,395 3,311
Kuangshi
6 China 294,044,650 3,720
International
7 Xilingyinshe China 199,486,812 3,140
Shanghai
8 China 160,679,547 1,893
Golden Harvest
9 Beijing Hanhai China 147,791,657 4,492
10 Bang Han Si United Kingdom 143,121,888 8,949

Source: Public information

The strong domestic auction house strong strong, "twenty-eight

characteristics" obvious. Overseas markets and the domestic market is

relatively independent, in the absence of overseas leading auction house in
the context of strong, the domestic auction house to fully enjoy the market
dividends, a number of local auctions thrive. Since the industry has
entered the adjustment period in 2012, the market structure has become more
obvious "two eight characteristics", large auction house squeeze the small
auction house living space, TOP5 market share steadily improved, from 13
years 55.89% to 15 years 64.25%, ranking 6-20 enterprise market share,
ranking 21-40 enterprise market share is basically stable, 40 companies
outside the market share of shrinking significantly. From the auction
business profit and loss pattern, the proportion of profit-making
enterprises since 13 years 43.46% year after year dropped to 15 years
27.4%, the industry trend of the survival of the fittest is more obvious.

Domestic auction house market concentration to enhance

 Source: Public information

National Heritage auction enterprises profit and loss pattern

Source: Public information

Spring and Autumn each year has been the highlight of the auction of

works of art, the basic response to the auction year turnover. From the
current competitive landscape, the Poly auction is undoubtedly the leading
domestic auction industry, Poly auction, China Guardian and Beijing
Kuangshi constitute the industry's first echelon (excluding Hong Kong's
Sotheby's, Christie's), the spring and autumn auction turnover of more than
2 billion yuan. Beijing Dongzheng, Huayi International, Beijing Hanhai,
China Merchants Shengjia and other auctions constitute the second echelon,
spring and autumn auction turnover of only 4 to 600 million or so.

Over the years Spring and Autumn Auction focus on the sale of the situation
(unit: billion)

Source: Public information

Since 2008, the rapid growth of the high net worth of people, art

auction market explosive growth, from the 2009 9.1 billion surge to 2011,
57.6 billion, followed by the industry experienced a large-scale decline,
then the annual turnover Stable at about 30 billion. In 2015, with the
economic downturn and the impact of the stock market shocks, some high net
worth of wealth shrinking; In addition, with the market cold, some sellers
have reluctant to sell psychological, the number of art into the market has
decreased. Under the influence of two factors, the auction market of art in
2015 is still in the doldrums.

16 years market turnover / turnover rate indicators improved, high-

priced auctions emerged. 16 years of spring, the art market has been a
positive change, the spring auction turnover of 24.36 billion yuan, down
only 0.21%, ending over the past three semi-annual decline of more than
10%; turnover rate continued to improve the trend, since the 15 spring 34%
of the lows rose to 44% of the normal level. High-priced auction is an
important benchmark for the popularity of the market, the number of
auctions in the spring of 2016 continued to enlarge the number of auctions
up to 9, a record high of 5 years, At present, although the industry as a
whole autumn auction data has not yet baked, but according to the disclosed
auction house data, the transaction size is still zoom.

Art auction turnover fell

Source: Public information

The rinse rate continues to rise

Source: Public information

Calendar year and autumn auction situation

Source: Public information

 Changes in the number of high - priced goods in spring and autumn

Source: Public information

Market "shrinkage and quality" trend is obvious, the transaction

price continues to rise. Over the past few years, the market boom in the
trough, lack of confidence in the market led to the low-end artists in the
demand for decline, but high-quality boutique is still the focus of the
pursuit of buyers, the market is still enthusiastic. On the auction house,
each auction regardless of the price level, have to take pictures,
publicity, curator and other links, a single piece of cost similar.
Therefore, to improve the quality of the auction, take the fine line can
increase the turnover rate in the industry downturn to improve the level of
profit margins. 2016 spring auction, turnover of 820,000 auctions, the
continuation of 14 years since the spring of shrinkage trend, the scale of
a record low in recent years, but the average transaction price has
maintained an upward trend.

Spring and Autumn shot "shrinkage quality" trend is obvious

Source: Public information

According to historical data at home and abroad, the art market has

a strong cyclical. Overseas market is 7-10 years to form a complete cycle,

from Sotheby's share price changes, about 7 years there is a peak, with the
overseas cycle is more consistent. From the domestic market, the domestic
art market started late, only experienced three prosperous period,
respectively, from 1995 to 1997, 2003 to 2005, 2009 to 2011, roughly seven
years for a cycle. From the domestic art category, the calligraphy and
painting market dominated, and the development of more mature, the
formation of a more obvious cycle, about 5 years to form a cycle, the
remaining category is not clear enough cyclical.
 Sotheby's share price for 7 years

Source: Public information

There is a periodical change in the auction of domestic art

Source: Public information

Art investment attributes highlight, and macroeconomic linkage

closely. At present, the investment attributes of the art market have been
gradually highlighted. According to the research results of the scholar Shi
Yang, the sample of the transaction is extracted twice and above, assuming
that a work is traded twice in the auction market. , The previous
transaction price for the purchase price trading time for the purchase
time, the latter were selling price and selling time; if the work of a
total of three transactions, then that works have 2 pairs of data, and so
on. Through the study found that the purchase of works of art before 2006
is much larger than the amount of sales, reflecting the investment in this
period for the value of art investment; and after 2008, the amount sold
more than the amount of buying, that art is bought after buying The
situation increased, the market speculation significantly.

Therefore, the art market has gradually become a confidence in the

market, its prosperity requires the support of external funds, and

macroeconomic close ties. Specifically, the art market is an alternative
investment channel, money supply and other investment channel income of its
potential impact. When the money supply increases, the market is expected
to enhance inflation, to find the right investment channels to achieve
value-added, and this time if the stock market, property market, gold and
other markets are relatively low, the funds will flow into the art market,
so as to promote the prosperity of works of art The According to scholar
Shi Yang's research, the stock price index increased by 10%, will produce a
2.7% inhibition of art prices; money supply increased by 10%, will lead to
art prices increased by 13.5%. From the M1 growth rate and the turnover of
art turnover comparison point of view, there is a closer relationship
between the two, and M1 growth rate of change leading art market changes.

Art market and money supply linkage relationship between the obvious

Source: Public information

Art market and other investment market relations

Source: Public information

High net worth of people, business configuration demand for the

market to bring new vitality. With the rapid rise in the level of wealth,
the birth of a group of high net worth customer base. At present, the
domestic auction house customer groups are more minority, the current close
participation in the auction of art auctions only about 1 million people.
In Western countries, the upper and middle income classes appreciate the
appreciation of art, collect a higher degree of popularity, 80% of the rich
have a collection of works of art. With the increase in investment assets,
high net worth customers began to consider a wider range of investment
channels, art because of its cultural value, aesthetic value, long-term
profitability by high net worth customers.

In addition, the enterprise collection has become a bright spot in

recent years, Tibetan art is not only an important component of asset

allocation, but also conducive to enhance the cultural quality of the
enterprise and brand culture. In recent years, Wanda Group, Suning Group,
Baolong Group and other enterprises to enter the art market, in the
collection of auctions at the same time, but also self-built art museums,
museums, and strive to build their own collection system.

2016 years of high-end art collection

 Source: Public information

Market or enter a new round of rising cycle, the great potential for

the development of works of art. According to the law of the development of

the art industry, 5-7 years for a cycle, since 2011, the art market has
experienced up to 5 years of winter. In the short term, the art market and
the flow of funds associated with a higher degree, 15 years, the central
bank to implement loose monetary policy, M1 growth at a high level, while
the stock market, the property market into the downturn, surplus funds are
expected to flow into the art market. 2016 art market has been signs of
picking up, spring / autumn auction turnover, turnover and high prices
accounted for indicators and other indicators have improved, is expected to
enter a new round of rising cycle. In the long run, with the steady growth
of the domestic economy, the domestic art market still has a very large
growth potential under the trend of high net worth individual / enterprise
participation rate.

China Industry Information Industry Channel This article compiled: CY306

China Industry
China Industrial Information
Information Network micro -
Network micro - letter service
letter public number

China Industry Information China 's industry information

Network micro - letter public network micro - letter service
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Keywords: art auction

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