OPINIONEDITORIAL

July 19, 2016

Shufflingthedeckchairs?
Abrupt politicalrealignmentsare not uncommon in Nepal. After the United Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) led by Pushpa
Kamal Dahal Prachanda withdrew support to K.P. Olis Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)-led government last week,
another such rearrangement appears to be on the cards. A no-confidence motion is due to be taken up in Parliament on July 21, and the
numbers are stacked against Mr. Oli. The opposition Nepali Congress led by Sher Bahadur Deuba and the UCPN(M-C) have worked out an
alternative arrangement to share power. Mr. Prachanda will lead the government for nine months, and Mr. Deuba will then take over for the
next nine months until the scheduled parliamentary elections. If, as expected, the UCPN(M-C)-NC coalition manages to form the government
with the support of smaller Madhesi parties and other groups, this would mark the 24th government in the 26 years since the first Jan
Andolan led to the end of absolute monarchy and the beginning of parliamentary democracy in Nepal. The creation of a new republic in 2008
has not changed things there have been eight prime ministers in eight years. Mr. Olis government had barely managed to get a grip on the
reconstruction effort after the devastation of the 2015 earthquake and the instability in the federal arrangement after the turmoil in the Terai
with Madhesi groups protesting against the new Constitution.

The promulgation of a Constitution took place in a peculiar set of circumstances. Following the second Constituent Assembly elections, the
status quoists political leaders across parties who were not part of the second Jan Andolan in support of a federal republic led the
process of promulgation. Mr. Oli, one such politician, had never showed any enthusiasm for a truly federal Nepal and chose to ignore the
demands of Madhesi, Tharu and Janajati groups that sought greater decentralisation of power. With Mr. Prachandas volteface on this issue,
a marriage of convenience made it possible for Mr. Oli to remain in power with the support of a motley group in Parliament comprising
Maoists and former royalists. Hushed in this power game were the issues the Maoists originally stood for: recognition of the less privileged
sections through a federal restructuring of the state, and redistribution. With little movement on these issues in the past year, a fresh start can
be possible if Mr. Prachanda and Mr. Deuba commit to fulfilling some of the federal demands and to redouble post-quake reconstruction
efforts. Given the Nepali political classs track record, there is bound to be cynicism. It is up to the two to prove the cynics wrong.