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Systematix

Institutional Equities

Timken India 6 July, 2017

Synergy-filled acquisition showcases growth hunger


COMPANY UPDATE Timken India (TMKN) announced the acquisition of ABC Bearings (ABCL) in an all-stock deal. The
Sector: Auto Ancillary Rating: Accumulate acquisition is EPS-accretive from the first year and brings significant operational synergies, as it
will help improve TMKNs market share in CV and off-highway segment. We believe it would
CMP: Rs779 Target Price: Rs860 strengthen TMKNs leadership position in tapered roller bearings (84% of ABCLs turnover in
FY16). It would also result in access to strong production capabilities in cylindrical, spherical
Stock Info bearings and slewing rings and to spare capacity (ABCLs capacity utilisation is ~40%). The merged
Sensex/Nifty 31,246/ 9,694 entity will have capacity bandwidth to execute opportunity-driven growth trajectory (in railways
Bloomberg TMKN IN and CVs) and export opportunity, as TMKN is fast-emerging as a key sourcing hub for its parent.
Equity shares (mn) 68 We believe TMKN is on the cusp of a major growth takeoff from FY19 and remains our key
52-wk High/Low Rs798/ 515 structural growth idea for the medium term. We maintain an Accumulate rating, with a revised
Face value Rs10 target price of Rs860 (Rs730 earlier).
M-Cap Rs53bn/ $0.8bn Valuation: The acquisition is at a swap ratio of 5:8 (5 shares of TMKN for every 8 shares of ABCL)
3-m Avg volume $0.6mn and would result in the issue of 7.22mn TMKN shares. The implied purchase multiple of the
Financial Snapshot (Rs mn) transaction is ~13.6x, based on FY17 EBITDA. The acquisition results in an equity dilution of 10.6%,
Y/E Mar FY18e FY19e FY20e with 1.4% EPS accretion to TMKN shareholders.
Net Sales 12,007 14,633 18,299 About ABCL: The company manufactures tapered, cylindrical and spherical roller bearings and
EBIDTA 2,061 2,676 3,385 slewing rings. It has two manufacturing facilities, at Bharuch (Gujarat) and Dehradun
PBT 1,742 2,393 3,136 (Uttarakhand), which primarily cater to heavy truck and off-highway vehicle OEMs. It has ~475
Net Profit 1,202 1,651 2,195 employees. During FY17, it recorded a turnover of Rs1.9bn, with EBITDA margin of 16.5% and
EPS (Rs) 17.7 24.3 32.3 adjusted PAT of Rs83mn. ABCL has a net debt of ~Rs250mn.
P/E (x) 44.1 32.1 24.1
EV/EBIDTA (x) 25.3 19.3 15.0 Rationale/synergy drivers for the deal: The merged entity will help TMKN to utilise its capacity for
P/B (x) 7.4 6.3 5.3 more export-led growth, beginning of domestic manufacturing of CRB/SRB bearings, increase
ROE % 16.8 19.7 21.9 market share in taper roller bearing market and CV/off-highway segment. We also expect more
RoCE (%) 17.1 20.2 22.9 benefits like economies of scale and operational efficiency to play out over the next two years.
Further, post merger, ABCLs annual finance cost of Rs50mn will vanish due to net cash at merged
Shareholding pattern (%) entity level and add to earnings. We believe TMKN (ex-ABCL) would have been short of capacity by
Mar 17 Dec 16 Sept 16 FY20, on expected acceleration in railway orders.

Promoter 75 75 75 Outlook remains positive, key triggers to come FY19 onwards: We believe TMKN has significant
Pledged - - - triggers over the next five to six years to supplement growth. With an increased government focus
on railways modernisation and metro rail projects, the company will be one of the major
FII 1.7 1.6 1.6
beneficiaries in terms of new orders. The 2x capacity augmentation undertaken in FY17 would
DII 9.4 9.5 9.5
render it well prepared to capitalise on this additional demand. Key triggers are:
Others 13.9 13.9 13.9
Railways: Railways to be the key trigger and post ~19% CAGR over FY16/20e. We expect Rs50bn
Stock Performance (1-year) opportunity emerging from new procurement of ~120k rolling stock for Dedicated Freight Corridor
(DFC), metro rail, new locomotive bearing supply and replacement of ~250k old freight rolling
stocks over the next six to eight years, with new K class bearings (2x realisation to old bearings).
CV & after-market: In HCV segment (25T+ category), we estimate wheel pack supply to increase its
addressable market, as we expect ~65% gain in content/vehicle, which has the potential to add
Rs1bn to its CV OEM business over the next few years. This, coupled with access to ABCLs OEM
customer base, would enable strong growth (CAGR of 11% over FY16/20e) in this segment.
Industrial: In wind segment, we estimate ~Rs1.5bn business over two years from new contracts.
We expect industrial gearbox service business to ramp up on domestic capex revival from FY19.
Onsite MILLTEC program provides round-the-clock management of a steel mill's rolling shop to
minimise operational problems and down-time. This segment to clock ~27% CAGR over FY16-20e.
Valuation and view: TMKNs stock trades at 32x FY19e EPS. We value it at 35x FY19e EPS (assign a
higher multiple than the five-year average trading band of 25-35x to factor ABCLs consolidation,
Priya Ranjan
priyaranjan@systematixshares.com post merger), as we believe a strong business case aligned with superior balance sheet/cash flow,
+91 22 6704 8067 MNC parentage and incremental growth opportunities will aid valuation. The valuation is not
stretched due to upcoming strong trigger, which is likely to last at least over 5-6 years beginning
Suneeta Kamath FY19. We would consider the consolidated numbers post receiving the acquisition nod from the
suneetakamath@systematixshares.com regulator. Key risks: delays in railway (DFC) capex and industrial capex cycle.
+91 22 6704 8068

Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the research report.

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6 July, 2017 Timken India
Table 1: Profit & Loss Statement of ABCL and TMKN
FY17
Rs in mn ABC Bearings Timken India
Revenue 1,898 10,562
RMC 890 6,240
RMC % 46.9% 59.1%

Employee benefit 217 737


Other Expenses 478 2,005
EBITDA 313 1,580
EBITDA margin 16.5% 15.0%

Finance cost 51 8
Other Income 6 99
Depreciation 126 289

PBT 142 1,382


Exceptional item 35 -
PBT after exceptional 177 1,382
Tax 58 410
Reported PAT 118 972
Adjusted PAT 83 972
PAT Margin % 6% 9%
Adjusted EPS (pre-merger) 7.2 14.3
Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research

Table 2: Calculation of Dilution impact & EPS accretion


No. of shares o/s of ABCL 11,550,000
Swap Ratio 5:8
No. of shares of Timken to be issued to ABC shareholders 7,218,750
No. of shares of Timken o/s pre-merger 67,988,434
No. of shares of Timken o/s post-merger 75,207,184
Dilution impact 10.6%

PAT combined entity 1,090


EPS combined entity 14.5
EPS accretion to Timken Shareholders 1.4%
Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research

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6 July, 2017 Timken India

FINANCIALS
Profit & Loss Statement Balance Sheet
YE: Mar (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e YE: Mar (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e
Net sales 10,479 10,439 12,007 14,633 18,299 Cash & bank 334 503 801 1,426 2,187
Growth, % 14.3 -0.4 15.0 21.9 25.1 Debtors 1,942 1,932 2,223 2,707 3,381
Other operating revenue 140 123 147 165 185 Inventory 1,859 1,817 2,063 2,492 3,117
Total Revenue 10,619 10,562 12,155 14,798 18,484 Loans & advances 892 929 970 1,015 1,067
Growth, % 14.3 (0.5) 15.1 21.7 24.9 Total current assets 5,028 5,180 6,056 7,640 9,751
Raw material expenses (6,387) (6,240) (7,084) (8,560) (10,705) Investments 384 403 415 428 440
Employee expenses (681) (737) (838) (1,007) (1,259) Gross fixed assets 3,549 4,558 5,265 5,595 5,895
Other Operating expenses (1,927) (2,002) (2,171) (2,555) (3,135) Less: Depreciation (2,193) (2,482) (2,869) (3,273) (3,684)
EBITDA (Core) 1,625 1,584 2,061 2,676 3,385 Add: Capital WIP 208.74 208.27 208.27 208.27 208.27
Growth, % 21.5 -2.5 30.1 29.9 26.5 Net fixed assets 1,564 2,284 2,604 2,530 2,419
Margin % 15.3 15.0 17.0 18.1 18.3 Deferred tax assets 78 78 78 78 78
Depreciation (225) (289) (387) (404) (411) Total assets 7,054 7,946 9,154 10,676 12,689
EBIT 1,401 1,295 1,674 2,272 2,973 Creditors 1,130 1,129 1,299 1,581 1,975
Growth, % 19.8 (7.5) 29.3 35.7 30.8 Other current liabilities 293 293 293 293 293
Margin % 13.2 12.3 13.8 15.4 16.1 Provisions 321 321 321 321 321
Other income 57 99 77 123 165 Deferred tax liabilities 46 46 46 46 46
Interest paid (9) (8) (9) (2) (2) Loan Funds 43 43 43 43 43
Exceptional items 30 0 0 0 0 Paid-up capital 680 680 680 680 680
Pre-tax profit 1,478 1,386 1,742 2,393 3,136 Reserves & surplus 4,541 5,435 6,473 7,713 9,332
Tax provided (499) (410) (540) (742) (941) Shareholders equity 5,221 6,115 7,152 8,392 10,012
Net Profit 979 976 1,202 1,651 2,195 Total equity & liabilities 7,054 7,946 9,154 10,676 12,689
Growth, % 21.4 (0.3) 23.2 37.4 32.9 Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research
Margin % 9.2 9.2 9.9 11.2 11.9
avg shares (m) 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 68.0
Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research

Cash Flow Ratios


YE: Mar (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e YE: Mar FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e FY20e
Pre-tax profit 1,418 1,386 1,742 2,393 3,136 EPS (Rs) 14.4 14.4 17.7 24.3 32.3
Depreciation 225 289 387 404 411 P/E (x) 55.8 54.3 44.1 32.1 24.1
Chg in working capital (231) 15 (408) (677) (956) P/B (x) 10.1 8.7 7.4 6.3 5.3
Total tax paid (509) (410) (540) (742) (941) EV/EBITDA (x) 32.4 33.1 25.3 19.3 15.0
Others 48 (42) (44) (77) -98 EV/Net sales (x) 5.0 5.0 4.3 3.5 2.8
CFO 950 1,238 1,137 1,302 1,552 RoE (%) 18.2 16.0 16.8 19.7 21.9
Capital expenditure (643) (1,009) (707) (330) -300 RoCE (%) 19.1 16.1 17.1 20.2 22.9
Other investing activities (7) 32 41 66 88 Asset turnover (x) 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5
CFI (651) (977) (666) (264) -212 Debtors (days) 67.7 67.5 67.6 67.5 67.4
Free cash flow 307 229 430 972 1,252 WC (days) 86.6 85.2 83.3 82.1 81.9
Debt raised/(repaid) 18 - - - 0 Revenue Growth (%) 14.3 (0.5) 15.1 21.7 24.9
Dividend (incl. tax) - (82) (165) (411) (576) EBIDTA Growth (%) 21.5 (2.5) 30.1 29.9 26.5
Others (5) (9) (9) (2) (2) PAT Growth (%) 21.4 (0.3) 23.2 37.4 32.9
CFF 13 (91) (174) (413) (578) EPS Growth (%) 21.4 (0.3) 23.2 37.4 32.9
Net chg in cash 313 170 298 625 762 Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research
Opening cash balance 391 334 503 801 1,426
Closing cash balance 704 503 801 1,426 2,187
Source: Company, Systematix Institutional Research

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6 July, 2017 Timken India

Institutional Equities Team

Nikhil Khandelwal Managing Director +91-22-6704 8001 nikhil@systematixgroup.in


Equity Research
Analysts Industry Sectors Desk-Phone E-mail
Jaspreet Singh Arora - Head of Research Cement, Building Material, Construction +91-22-6704 8062 jaspreet@systematixshares.com
Priya Ranjan Auto & Auto Ancs +91-22-6704 8067 priyaranjan@systematixshares.com
Himanshu Nayyar Consumer, Agri, Logistics +91-22-6704 8064 himanshunayyar@systematixshares.com
T. Ranvir Singh Pharma, Healthcare, Agrochem +91-22-6704 8016 ranvirsingh@systematixshares.com
Ankit Gor Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8028 ankitgor@systematixshares.com
Divyata Dalal Construction, Infra +91-22-6704 8059 divyatadalal@systematixshares.com
Gurpreet Kaur Cement, Building Material +91-22-6704 8049 gurpreetkaur@systematixshares.com
Suneeta Kamath Auto & Auto Ancs +91-22-6704 8068 suneetakamath@systematixshares.com
Rahul Khandelwal Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8003 rahul@systematixshares.com
Naushad Chaudhary Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8036 naushadchaudhary@systematixshares.com
Birendrakumar Singh Technical Research +91-22-6704 8024 birendrasingh@systematixshares.com
Pragnesh Jain Technical Research +91-22-6704 8066 pragneshj@systematixshares.com
Equity Sales & Trading
Name Desk-Phone E-mail
Pankaj Karde Head - Institutional Sales & Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8061 pankajkarde@systematixshares.com
Shraddha Shrikhande Sales +91-22-6704 8085 shraddha@systematixshares.com
Dinesh Bajaj Sales +91-22-6704 8065 dineshbajaj@systematixshares.com
Jigar Kamdar Sales +91-22-6704 8060 jigarkamdar@systematixshares.com
Venkat Ramesh Babu Sales +91-22-6704 8090 venkat@systematixshares.com
Sandesh Sawant Sales +91-22-6704 8045 sandeshsawant@systematixshares.com
Bhavik Shah Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8053 bhavikshah@systematixshares.com
Vinod Bhuwad Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8051 vinodbhuwad@systematixshares.com
Amit Sawant Dealer +91-22-6704 8054 amitsawant@systematixshares.com
Paras Shah Dealer +91-22-6704 8047 parasshah@systematixshares.com
Sachin Malusare Sr. Manager +91-22-6704 8055 sachinmalusare@systematixshares.com
Sugandha Rane Assistant Manager +91-22-6704 8056 sugandha@systematixshares.com
Corporate Access
Shaheen Chamadia Manager +91-22-6704 8091 shaheenc@systematixshares.com
Production
Ramesh Nair Editor +91-22-6704 8071 rameshnair@systematixshares.com
Mrunali Pagdhare Production +91-22-6704 8057 mrunalip@systematixshares.com

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6 July, 2017 Timken India

DISCLOSURES/ APPENDIX

I. ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I, Priya Ranjan, Suneeta Kamath; hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or
issuers referred to in this research report, (2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this
research report by Systematix Shares & Stocks (I) Limited or its Group/associates companies. (3) has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in
making any recommendations.

Disclosure of Interest Statement Update


Analyst holding in the stock No
Served as an officer, director or employee No

II. ISSUER SPECIFIC REGULATORY DISCLOSURES, Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below:

1. The Research Analyst(s), Systematix Shares & Stocks(I) Limited (SSSIL), Associate of Analyst or his relative does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in this
report.

2. The Research Analyst, SSSIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the company (ies) covered in
this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report.

3. The Research Analyst, his associate, his relative and SSSIL do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.

4. The Research Analyst, SSSIL and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or
services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months.

5. The Research Analyst, SSSIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for the company (ies)
covered in this report.

6. SSSIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in connection with the research
report.

7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report.

8. The Research Analyst and SSSIL has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report.

9. Details SSSIL, Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report:

Sr. Yes /
Particulars
No. No.
Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by
1 No
SSSIL
Whether Research Analyst, SSSIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the
2 No
Research report
3 Whether compensation has been received by SSSIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No
SSSIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the
4 Research report No

Research Analyst, his associate, SSSIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any
5 No
other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve month

10. There are no material disciplinary action that been taken by any regulatory authority impacting equity research analysis activities.

STOCK RATINGS

BUY (B): The stock's total return is expected to exceed 20% over the next 12 months.
ACCUMULATE (A): The stock's total return is expected to be within 10-20% over the next 12 months.
HOLD (H): The stock's total return is expected to be within 0-10% over the next 12 months.
SELL (S): The stock's total return is expected to give negative returns over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED (NR): The analyst has no recommendation on the stock under review.

INDUSTRY VIEWS

ATTRACTIVE (AT): Fundamentals/Valuations of the sector are expected to be attractive over the next 12-18 months.
NEUTRAL (NL): Fundamentals/Valuations of the sector are expected to neither improve nor deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.
CAUTIOUS (CS): Fundamentals/Valuations of the sector are expected to deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.

III. DISCLAIMER

The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information
has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and one should
exercise due caution while acting on it. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not complete and this document is not, and should not be
construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not
guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other
information contained in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. This report is
intended for distribution to institutional investors.

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SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any
companies that the analysts cover. Additionally, SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of
any companies that the analysts cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients
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recommendations expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The
compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SSSIL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of
which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analysts and sales persons of SSSIL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income
derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. SSSIL, its directors, analysts
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including but not restricted to fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc

SSSIL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees subject to the information given in the disclosures may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the
securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest)
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Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Shares & Stocks (I) Ltd. CIN : U65993MH1995PLC268414 BSE SEBI Reg. No.: INB/F011132736 (Member Code: 182) | NSE SEBI Reg. No.: INB/F/E231132730 (Member Code:
11327) | MCX-SX SEBI Reg. No.: INB/F261132733 (Member Code: 17560) | Depository Participant: IN-DP-CDSL-246-2004 (DP Id: 34600) | PMS : INP000002692 | AMFI : ARN -
64917|Research Analyst : INH200000840
Regd. office address: 2nd floor, J. K. Somani Bldg, British Hotel Lane, Fort, Mumbai - 400001
Corporate office address: A 603-606 , The Capital, BKC, Bandra (E), Mumbai, India - 400051

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