Observations and Future Projections (Scientific basis)

1. Introduction: indicators of climate change and treatment of uncertainties

2. Observations: atmosphere, ocean and surface
3. Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional

Jose A. Marengo
Head, Research and Development
CEMADEN
jose.marengo@cenaden.gov.br
1. Introduction: indicators of climate change and treatment of uncertainties
 1. Introduction: indicators of climate change and treatment of uncertainties

Observations of the climate system are based on direct measurements and remote sensing
from satellites and other platforms. Global-scale observations from the instrumental era
began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables, with more
comprehensive and diverse sets of observations available for the period 1950 onwards.
Paleoclimate reconstructions extend some records back hundreds to millions of years.
Together, they provide a comprehensive view of the variability and long-term changes in the
atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere, and the land surface.

The degree of certainty in key findings in this assessment is based on the author teams
evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a qualitative level of
confidence (from very low to very high) and, when possible, probabilistically with a
quantified likelihood (from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain). Confidence in the
validity of a finding is based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence
(e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of
agreement. Probabilistic estimates of quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding are
based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or both, and expert judgment.
Where appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact without using
uncertainty qualifiers
Main drivers of climate change.
Global mean energy budget under present-day climate conditions. Numbers state magnitudes
of the individual energy fluxes in W m2, adjusted within their
uncertainty ranges to close the energy budgets. Numbers in parentheses attached to the
energy fluxes cover the range of values in line with observational constraints
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide, absorb heat energy and emit it in all directions (including downwards), keeping
Earths surface and lower atmosphere warm. Adding more greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere enhances the effect, making Earths surface and lower atmosphere even warmer.
Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of
climate change. Values are global average radiative forcing .The best estimates of the net radiative forcing
are shown as black diamonds with corresponding uncertainty intervals; the numerical values are provided
on the right of the figure, together with the confidence level in the net forcing (VH very high, H high, M
medium, L low, VL very low). Albedo forcing due to black carbon on snow and ice is included in the
black carbon aerosol bar. Small forcings due to contrails (0.05 W m2, including contrail induced cirrus), and
HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (total 0.03 W m2) are not shown. Volcanic forcing is not included as its episodic nature
makes is difficult to compare to other forcing mechanisms. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing is provided
for three different years relative to 1750.
Development of
capabilities of
observations. Top:
remote sensed and
satellite data
Bottom left: First
year of temperature
data in Global
Historical
Climatology Network
(GHCN) daily
database
Bottom right:
Number of satellite
instruments from
which data have
been assimilated in
the ECMWF.
Data coverage and type
Oceanic data coverage
Tide data coverage
Location of proxy-record data for 1000 AD
Observing system in the
tropical oceans
Paleo climatic
climate indicators:
indicators

Corals: Corals build their hard skeletons from calcium carbonate, a mineral extracted from sea
water. The carbonate contains isotopes of oxygen, as well as trace metals, that can be used to
determine the temperature of the water in which the coral grew. These temperature recordings
can then be used to reconstruct climate when the coral lived.
Fossil Pollen: All flowering plants produce pollen grains. Their distinctive shapes can be used to
identify the type of plant from which they came. Since pollen grains are well preserved in the
sediment layers in the bottom of a pond, lake or ocean, an analysis of the pollen grains in each
layer tell us what kinds of plants were growing at the time the sediment was
deposited.Inferences can then be made about the climate based on the types of plants found
in each layer.
Tree Rings: Since tree growth is influenced by climatic conditions, patterns in tree-ring widths,
density, and isotopic composition reflect variations in climate. In temperate regions where
there is a distinct growing season, trees generally produce one ring a year, and thus record the
climatic conditions of each year.Trees can grow to be hundreds to thousands of years old and
can contain annually-resolved records of climate for centuries to millennia.
Ice Cores: Located high in mountains and in polar ice caps, ice has accumulated from snowfall
over many millenia. Scientists drill through the deep ice to collect ice cores. These cores contain
dust, air bubbles, or isotopes of oxygen, that can be used to interpret the past climate of that
area.
Ocean & Lake Sediments: Billions of tons of sediment accumulate in the ocean and lake basins
each year. Scientist drill cores of sediment from the basin floors. Ocean and lake sediments
include tiny fossils and chemicals that are used to interpret past climates.
Historical climate change
Ice core data
Ice core data
Ice core samples
Tree rings data show a warming trend
Reconstruction of annual rainfall in western Mexico
Rainfall Reconstruction from tree rings for the US in 1863
Climate variability in the last millennium
Paleo climatic reconstruction since 800,000
Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period
Paintings and paleo climatic indicators

The Frozen Thames, 1677

 Climate-relevant aerosol processes
are better understood and, climate-
relevant properties better
observed, than at the time of the
AR4.

New satellite sensors

and new analysis of
previous data sets have
given us a clearer picture
of the Earths clouds since
AR4.

IPCC AR5, Chapter 7, 2013

 Better and longer satellite data about the Sun

Improved assessment:
a) no observed trend in solar irradiance since 1978 using high
quality inter-calibrated data; b) spectral information c) solar
magnetic flux model rather than proxy data; d) re-evaluation of
variations in Sun-like stars.

No observed trend in this data. Solar forcing much less than

greenhouse gases.
Overview of global dynamical reanalysis data sets (ranked by start year; the period extends
to present if no end year is provided). Approximate resolution is calculated as 1000 km.
Global Warming effects:
 Global Warming effects:
The dramatic retreat of the tropical glaciers (e.g.,
Pastoruri Glacier over the Andes retreat over the last 30
years)

Pastoruri Glacier in Huaraz

(Per)
https://www.theguardian.c
om/science/2015/jan/27/g
lobal-warming-glacier-
depletion-andes

Pastoruri Glacier in
Huaraz (Per).
Photo. Silvio N.
Figueroa, March 2017.
Global Warming effects:
Global Warming effects:
1850-2017
Hemispheric and
global averages
graph, relative to
1961-90
Multiple
independent
indicators of a
changing global
climate. Each line
represents an
independently
derived estimate
of change in the
climate
element. In each
panel all data sets
have been
normalized to a
common period of
record.
Climate variability and change
Definition of climate change
Internal variability-an important source of climate variability
Natural causes of climate change
Natural causes of climate change
Human causes of climate change
Human causes of climate change
Human causes of climate change
Human causes of climate change
CO2, CH4, CFCs and N2O
CO2, CH4 and N2O increase in the Industrial Era

Ice core records Atmospheric monitoring

Tipping points and hot spots
Tipping points and hot spots
From IPCC AR5 to AR4, what has changed as compared to previous
results?
From IPCC AR5 to AR4, what has changed as compared to previous
results?
(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.1a)
Decadal global mean
surface temperature
(GMST) anomalies (white
vertical lines in grey
blocks) and their
uncertainties (90%
confidence intervals as
grey blocks) based upon
the land-surface air
temperature (LSAT) and
sea surface temperature
(SST) combined HadCRUT4

Anomalies are relative to a

19611990 climatology.
1850s indicates the period
1850-1859, and
so on. NCDC MLOST and
GISS data set best-
estimates are also shown.
 Taylor et al (2017)
Trends in MCS and
rainfall characteristics
across the Sahel.

a, b, Annual
rainfall (a), and
contribution of extreme
events to annual rainfall
(b), as measured by a
daily rain-gauge
network. Red lines
indicate five-year
running means. c, d,
Regional MCS frequency
at 1800 utc at different
temperature thresholds,
derived directly from
measurements onboard
the Meteosat First
Generation (MFG; +
symbols)and Meteosat
Second.
 Taylor et al (2017)

Rainfall and temperature

time series 19502015 in the
Sahel.

a, Annual mean rainfall (in

mm), and b, contribution of
extreme rain events to the
annual rainfall total (as a
percentage), from
the daily rainfall data set in
the Central Sahel. c, Global
land mean
temperatures for JJAS from
the Climatic Research Unit
(CRU) Five-year running
means are
shown as a red line.
Trend estimates and 90% confidence intervals for LSAT global average values over five
common periods.
Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system,
accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high
confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0700 m) warmed from 1971 to
2010 (, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.

On a global scale, the ocean warming is largest near the surface, and the upper 75 m
warmed by 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] C per decade over the period 1971 to 2010. Since AR4,
instrumental biases in upper-ocean temperature records have been identified and
reduced, enhancing confidence in the assessment of change.
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing
mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and
Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high
confidence)
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate
during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901 to 2010,
global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have
increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Carbon dioxide
concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil
fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has
absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean
acidification
3-year running mean
sea level rise
anomalies (in mm)
relative to 1900-2005
Elevao do nvel do mar (m)
1-1.5

0.5-
1.0
Regiao Metropolitana
Ate 05
Elevao do nvel do mar (m)
1-1.5

0.5-
1.0
Regiao Metropolitana
Ate 05
Trends in annual precipitation over land from the CRU, GHCN and GPCC data sets for 1901
2010 (left-hand panels) and 19512010 (right-hand panels). Trends have been calculated only
for those grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data
availability in first and last decile of the period. White areas indicate incomplete or missing
data. Black plus signs (+) indicate grid boxes where trends are significant (i.e., a trend of zero
lies outside the 90% confidence interval).
Annual precipitation
anomalies averaged
over land areas for four
latitudinal bands and
the globe from five
global precipitation
data sets relative to a
19812000 climatology.
Trend estimates and 90% confidence intervals for annual precipitation for each time series in
Figure 2.28 over two common periods of record.

Trend estimates and 90% confidence intervals for annual precipitation for each time series in
over two periods. Dashes indicate not enough data available for trend calculation. For the
latitudinal band 90oS to 60oS not enough data exist for each product in either period.
(a) Trends in surface specific
humidity from HadISDH and NOCS
over 19732012. Trends have
been calculated only for those grid
boxes with greater than
70% complete records and more
than 20% data availability in first
and last decile of the period.
White areas indicate incomplete
or missing data. Black plus signs
(+) indicate grid boxes where
trends are significant (i.e., a trend
of zero lies outside the
90% confidence interval).
(b) Global annual average
anomalies in land surface specific
humidity from Dai (2006; red),
HadCRUH (Willett et al., 2013;
orange), HadISDH
(Willett et al., 2013; black), and
ERA-Interim (Simmons et al., 2010;
blue). Anomalies
are relative to the 19792003
climatology.
Climate Change will continue long after 2100
and high climate risk may persist for Melting of
centuries Greenland
ice-sheet

Over the long term, a number of limits to

adaptability will be transgressed
(e.g., sea level rise for coastal cities) Melting of
Antarctic
ice-sheet

Estimates of long-term committed sea level

All
rise per degree of warming (held constant over contributions
long-term) resulting from:
(c) melting of Greenland ice-sheet
(d) melting of Antarctic ice-sheet
(e) all contributions
Source: IPCC AR5 WGI Fig. 13.14
Definitions of extreme
temperature and
precipitation indices
used in IPCC (after
Zhang et al., 2011). The
most common units
are shown but these
may be shown as
normalized or relative
depending on
application in different
chapters.
Trends in the
warmest day of
the year using
different data
sets for
the period 1951
2010.
Trends in annual
frequency of extreme
temperatures over the
period 19512010, for
(a) cold nights (TN10p),
(b) cold days (TX10p), (c)
warm nights (TN90p)
and (d) warm days
(TX90p). Trends were
calculated only for grid
boxes that had at least
40 years of data during
this period and where
data ended no earlier
than 2003.Grey areas
indicate incomplete or
missing data. Black plus
signs (+) indicate grid
boxes where trends are
significant (i.e., a trend
of zero lies outside the
90% confidence
interval).
Trends in (a) annual amount of precipitation from
days >95th percentile (R95p), (b) daily precipitation
intensity (SDII) and (c) frequency of the annual
maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD).
Trends are shown as relative values for better
comparison across different climatic regions.
Trends were calculated only
for grid boxes that had at least 40 years of data
during this period and where data ended no earlier
than 2003. Grey areas indicate incomplete or
missing data. Black plus signs
(+) indicate grid boxes where trends are significant
(i.e., a trend of zero lies outside the 90%
confidence interval).
Trends in the warmest day of the year
using different data sets for
the period 19512010. The data sets are
(a) HadEX2 updated to
include the latest version of the
European Climate Assessment data set,
(b) HadGHCND using data updated to
2010 and (c) Globally averaged annual
warmest day anomalies for each data
set.
Trends were calculated only for grid
boxes that had at least 40 years of data
during this period and where data
ended no earlier than 2003. Grey areas
indicate incomplete or missing data.
Black plus signs (+) indicate grid boxes
where trends are significant (i.e., a
trend of zero lies outside the 90%
confidence interval). Anomalies are
calculated using grid boxes only where
both data sets have data and where 90%
of data are available.
Heavy Precipitation

Hot Extremes

Source: Fischer and Knutti, Nature Climate Change , 2015

 Mora et al (2017)

Geographical distribution of recent lethal heat events and their climatic conditions. a, Places
where relationships between heat and mortality have been documented (red squares) and
where specific heat episodes have been studied (blue squares).
 Mora et al (2017)

Geographical distribution of
deadly climatic conditions under
diferent emission scenarios. ad,
Number of days per year
exceeding the threshold of
temperature and humidity beyond
which climatic conditions become
deadly (Fig. 1b), averaged
between 1995 and 2005 (a,
historical
experiment), and between 2090
and 2100 under RCP 2.6 (b), RCP
4.5 and RCP 8.5 (d). Results are
based on multimodel medians.
Grey areas indicate locations with
high uncertainty (that is, the
multimodel standard deviation
was larger than the projected
mean; coefficient of variance >1).
Distribution of (a) daily minimum and
(b) daily maximum temperature
anomalies relative to a 19611990
climatology for two periods:
19511980 (blue) and 19812010
(red) using the HadGHCND data set.

The shaded blue and red areas

represent the coldest 10% and
warmest 10% respectively of (a)
nights and (b) days during the 1951
1980 period.

The darker shading indicates by how

much the number of the coldest days
and nights has reduced (dark blue)
and by how much the number of the
warmest days and nights has
increased (dark red) during the 1981
2010 period compared to the 1951
1980 period.
Schematic representations of the
probability density function of daily
temperature, which tends to be
approximately Gaussian, and daily
precipitation, which has a skewed
distribution. Dashed lines represent a
previous distribution and solid lines a
changed distribution. The probability of
occurrence, or frequency, of extremes is
denoted by the shaded areas. In the case
of temperature, changes in the frequencies
of extremes are affected by changes (a) in
the mean, (b) in the variance or shape, and
(c) in both the mean and the variance. (d)
In a skewed distribution such as that of
precipitation, a change in the mean of the
distribution generally affects its variability
or spread, and thus an increase in mean
precipitation would also imply an increase
in heavy precipitation extremes, and vice-
versa. In addition, the shape of the right-
hand tail could also change, affecting
extremes.
Trends estimates at 90% confidence intervals for global values of cold nights, cold days,
warm nights, warm days over 1951-90 and 1979-2010. respectively of (a) nights and (b)
days during the 19511980 period.
(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.Table.1)
Normalized 5-year running
means of the number of (a)
adjusted land
falling eastern Australian
tropical cyclones and
updated to include
2010/2011 season) and (b)
unadjusted land falling U.S.
hurricanes and (c) land-
falling typhoons in China

Vertical axis ticks represent

one standard deviation, with
all series normalized to unit
standard deviation after a 5-
year running mean was
applied.
Some indices of climate
variability plotted in the 1870
2012 interval. Where
HadISST1, HadSLP2r, or
NNR are indicated, the
indices were computed from
the sea surface temperature
(SST) or sea level pressure
(SLP) values of the former two
data sets or from 500 or 850
hPa geopotential height fields
from the NNR. Data set
references given in the panel
titles apply to all indices shown
in that panel. All indices were
standardized with regard to
19712000 period except for
NINO3.4 (centralized for 1971
2000) and AMO indices
(centralized for 19011970).
Indices marked as detrended
had their linear trend for
18702012
removed.
Interannual variability of tropical SST anomalies
1998 2016

2005 2010
SST Annual Anomalies Nino 3.4 2007

Drought years

2010
1998 2005 2016
2007
Tropical Atlantic SST Anomalies
Drought years
Interdecadal SST variability-PDO
Trends in (left) sea level pressure (SLP), (middle) 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) and (right)
100 hPa GPH in (top) November to April 1979/1980 to 2011/2012
and (bottom) May to October 1979 to 2011 from ERA-Interim data. Trends are shown only if
significant (i.e., a trend of zero lies outside the 90% confidence interval).
Decadal averages of sea level pressure (SLP) from the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) for
(left) November of previous year to April and (right) May to October shown by two selected
contours: 1004 hPa (dashed lines) and 1020.5 hPa (solid lines). Topography above 2 km
above mean sea level in 20CR is shaded in dark grey.
 Drought in Amazonia 1998
1983 1987
D86JF87 D97JF98 Seasonal rainfall
D82JF83
anomalies(DJF,
MAM) in
Amazonia during
Dry years in
Amazonia, in %
MAM983 MAM87 MAM98 relative to 1961-
90.
(Marengo &
Espinoza 2016
and updated to
2005 2010 2016 2016)
D4JF05
D09JF10 D15JF16 Drought: El
Nino, warmer
tropical North
Atlantic, both,
climate
MAM05
MAM10 MAM16 change?.
deforestation?-
fires increase
in drought years
-Droughts and fires in the Amazon Region

During the recent decade (2005 to 2016) alone, tropical/subtropical

South America experienced several extreme drought events. In
2005, a severe drought in the Amazon, categorized as a 100-year
event, caused record-breaking annual wild fires and carbon
emissions, leading to the first ever negative annual carbon balance
recorded for the rainforest.

Few years later, stronger and more destructive droughts hit

Amazonia in 2010 and 2014, the recorded rainforest carbon balance
was negative (as in 2010).
IPCC AR5 WG2 (2014)

Fires in Amazonia are

being altered
throughout severe
droughts, land use and
increased frequency of
fires
 Gatti et al (2014)

Impacts of drought in 2010:

Water deficit
Observations from Amazonian
forest plots suggest the
suppression of photosynthesis
during drought as the primary
cause for the 2010 sink Fire
neutralization.

Overall, our results suggest that

moisture has an important role in
determining the Amazonian carbon
balance.
 Maximum
climatological water
deficit (MCWD)>
model dependent

Changes in Maximum
climatological water deficit
(MCWD) are model
dependent (CMIP3 models)

PCM-Wet Amazonia in
future

HadCM3-Dry Amazonia in
future

Zhang et al (2011)
Duration of dry season (months) in the Arc of Deforestation Region in Southern
Amazonia

Wet season Wet season

Middle 1970s
Climate shift
Independent analyses of many components of the climate system that would be expected to
change in a warming world exhibit trends consistent with warming (arrow direction denotes
the sign of the change),
Trends in the frequency (or intensity) of various climate extremes (arrow direction denotes
the sign of the change) since the middle of the 20th century (except for North Atlantic storms
where the period covered is from the 1970s).
 Recorded drought: timescales & extremes

Increasing frequency
Amazon: two extreme droughts (2005, 2010) + El Nios of extremes
Reichstein et al. 2013, Nature
Lewis et al. 2011, Science

Rainfall 1900-2010, Ghana

Long term decline?
Ghana 40 yr drought
+ Amazon dry season extension
Fauset et al. 2012 Ecol. Letters
Fu et al. 2013 PNAS
 Average physical exposure to Tropical Cyclones assuming constant hazard (in
thousands of people per year)
Changes in population size strongly influence
changes in exposure to hazards. It is
estimated that currently about 1.15 billion
people live in tropical cyclone-prone areas.

The average number of people exposed to tropical cyclones per year globally would increase
by 11.6% from 2010 to 2030 from population growth only. In relative terms, Africa has the
largest percentage increase in physical exposure to tropical cyclones. In absolute terms, Asia
has more than 90% of the global population exposed to tropical cyclones.

Source: IPCC 2012, Special Report - Data from Peduzzi et al., 2011
 Average physical exposure to Floods assuming constant hazard
(in thousands of people per year)
Population growth will continue to increase
exposure to floods.

About 800 million people are currently living in flood-prone areas, and about 70 million
people currently living in flood-prone areas are, on average, exposed to floods each year
(UNISDR, 2011).
Source: IPCC 2012, Special Report - Data from Peduzzi et al., 2011
 Why is there uncertainty in climate information?

Uncertainty in climate information stems the natural variability inherent in the climate
system and from limitations in our ability to model the climate system and in our
understanding of how future greenhouse gas emissions will change. Our understanding and
modelling of climate change has advanced significantly in recent decades and increased the
confidence we can place in the projected changes that are likely for key climate variables such
as temperature, sea-level rise, snow cover, and the risk of heat waves and drought. There is
also an improving understanding of projected patterns of precipitation which suggest that
patterns observed in recent trends are likely to continue.

In general, we can have greater confidence in projections for larger regions than for specific
locations, in temperature projections than those for precipitation, and for gradual changes in
average conditions than we can have for extreme weather events such as storms. These
characteristics of the projections present challenges to adaptation planning but they do not
mean that adaptation is impossible or cannot be addressed. Instead, adaptation planners need
to understand the information that is available, including the associated uncertainties at
different temporal and spatial scales and consider what that uncertainty means for decision-
making. They also need to ensure that the uncertainties and implications for the resulting
decisions are clearly communicated, particularly in the context of supporting, evaluating and
updating adaptation actions and plans.
 Uncertainties in climate change projections arise from three primary sources:

Natural climate variability resulting from natural processes within the climate system which
cause changes in climate over relatively short time scales;
Future emissions of greenhouse gases arising from uncertainty over the scale of future
global emissions of greenhouse gases by human society, and thus the scale of future radiative
forcing; this becomes a dominant source of uncertainty on time scales of 50 years or more.
Modelling uncertainty arising from incomplete understanding of Earth system processes and
incomplete representation of these processes in climate models.
.
Natural variability: Climate can and does vary naturally, regardless of any human influence.
Natural climate variability arises as a result of two causes: natural internal forcing and natural
external forcing, such as volcanic eruptions and variations in solar activity
Future emissions of greenhouse gases: The starting point for projecting future climate change
is the development of scenarios of future emissions of the greenhouse gases and other
pollutants that affect climate (e.g. sulphur dioxide). Such scenarios extend data on past
emissions with estimates of how emissions may change with future changes in technology,
demography, economic development, etc.
Modelling uncertainty: Uncertainty about the functioning of the climate system, and the
responses of biological and social systems to changes in climate, is another source of
uncertainty for adaptation planning. Continued scientific research may help to resolve some of
this uncertainty but it may also uncover additional uncertainty. Because different climate
models represent these processes in different ways, their outcomes (for the same emissions
scenarios) will be different.
 Treatment of Uncertainty

Based on the Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on
Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties, IPCC rely on two metrics for communicating the degree
of certainty in key findings,

Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality and consistency
of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgement) and the
degree of agreement. Confidence is expressed qualitatively.

Quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding expressed probabilistically (based on

statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgement).

For some climate variables, different aspects have been assessed and therefore a direct
comparison would be inappropriate.

Each key finding is based on an author teams evaluation of associated evidence and
agreement. The confidence metric provides a qualitative synthesis of an author teams
judgement about the validity of a finding, as determined through evaluation of evidence and
agreement. If uncertainties can be quantified probabilistically, an author team can characterize
a finding using the calibrated likelihood language or a more precise presentation of probability.
Unless otherwise indicated, high or very high confidence is associated with
findings for which an author team has assigned a likelihood term.
Treatment of Uncertainty
2. Observations: atmosphere, ocean and surface
A few sensitive issues from AR5 WGI
Impacts: Effects on natural and human systems. In this report, the term impacts is used
primarily to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of extreme weather and
climate events and of climate change. Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods,
health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure

Risk: The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the
outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as
probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these
events or trends occur.

Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In
human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to
expected climate and its effects.

Resilience: The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a
hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain
their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for
adaptation, learning, and transformation.
Climate change: Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be
identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its
properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate
change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations
of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the
composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or

physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as
damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and
environmental resources. Hazard usually refers to climate-related physical events or trends
or their physical impacts.

Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental

functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in
places and settings that could be adversely affected.

Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability

encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to
harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
 About climate models

Climate models Mathematic representation of the

climate system
Limitation in representing some little known physical
processes uncertaintities
Model validation limitations in availability (coverage) of
observations
How to treat uncertainitiesmodel development,
resolution, Earth System Models, regional models
Best analysis MME Multimodel ensemble
Impact-Vulnerability-Adaptation studiesdownscaling of
global models, statistical methods, high resolution global
models
The climate system
Model structure
 Role of processes
Detailed model processes and evaluation required
Cloud micro-physics
PBL
Shallow and deep Convection (their Diurnal Cycle)
Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection
Radiation and clouds
Direct and indirect effect of aerosols
Interaction between Microphysics and Cumulus
convection
Surface-atmosphere coupling
Vegetation response, stomatal closure and
moisture fluxes
Ocean circulation, SSTs
Boundary layer humidity and convection
 Model resolution

Calculations in each grid box

100 km Temperature, humidity, dirction and wind
28 vertical leves speed, geopotential height
100 km
1
lat 1
long

Domnio Geogrfico
Lateral interactions

Surface interactions

www.cptec.inpe.br
The development of climate models over the last 35 years showing how the different
components were coupled into comprehensive climate models over time. In
each aspect (e.g., the atmosphere, which comprises a wide range of atmospheric processes)
the complexity and range of processes has increased over time (illustrated by growing
cylinders).
Horizontal resolutions
considered in todays
higher resolution models
and in the very high
resolution models now
being tested: (a)
Illustration of the
European topography at a
resolution of 87.5x87.5
km; (b) same as (a) but
for a resolution of
30.0x30.0 km.
CMIP5 GCMs to 4xCO2 atmospheric concentration forcing (near-surface temperature)

Capistrano, et al. 2016

DOUBLE ITCZ PROBLEM
Is it connected to:
a) Cloud Bias over the Southern Ocean?
b) Tropical Precipitation bias?
c) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) bias?
d) the inter-hemispheric heating asymmetry? ( Li, Xi, 2014).

Is it possible to predict this problem from AMIP simulations? (Xiang et al.

2017).

Figure from Hwang and Frierson (2013)

 Across space- / time-scales

l rainfall of specific interest

Initialised forecasts of rainfall 1 season ahead
What enables/hinders predictability
Role of land-surface / soil moisture
Non-initiliased projections
Long-term changes in risks mean and extremes
Seasonal structure annual mean/intensity vs
timing of dry/wet season onset?

Global coupled modelling

Dynamics and teleconnections

Regional high-res modelling

Ability to capture fine details in surface coupling
E.g. land use forcing
Ability to capture response of extremes
Convection resolving
Seasonal
 Description of Future Scenarios
Long-term climate change projections require assumptions on human activities or natural
effects that could alter the climate over decades and centuries. Defined scenarios are useful
for a variety of reasons, e.g., assuming specific time series of emissions, land use, atmospheric
concentrations or RF across multiple models allows for coherent climate model
intercomparisons and synthesis. Scenarios can be formed in a range of ways, from simple,
idealized structures to inform process understanding, through to comprehensive scenarios
produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) as internally consistent sets of
assumptions on emissions and socioeconomic drivers (e.g., regarding population and socio-
economic development)Idealized Concentration Scenarios

The Socio-Economic Driven SRES

The SRES suite of scenarios were developed using IAMs and resulted from specific socio-
economic scenarios from storylines about future demographic and economic development,
regionalization, energy production and use, technology, agriculture, forestry and land use
(IPCC, 2000). The climate change projections undertaken as part of CMIP3 and discussed in
AR4 were based primarily on the SRES A2, A1B and B1 scenarios.

Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios RCPS) and Their Extensions

RCP are new scenarios that specify concentrations and corresponding emissions, but are not
directly based on socio-economic storylines like the SRES scenarios. The RCP scenarios are
based on a different approach and include more consistent short-lived gases and land use
changes. They are not necessarily more capable of representing future developments
than the SRES scenarios.
 What is Radiative forcing (RF)?

Ramaswamy et al. (2001) define it as the change in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar
plus longwave; in W m2) at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to
readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state
held fixed at the unperturbed values.

Radiative forcing is used to assess and compare the anthropogenic and natural drivers of
climate change. The concept arose from early studies of the climate response to changes in
solar insolation and CO2, using simple radiative-convective models. However, it has proven to
be particularly applicable for the assessment of the climate impact.

Radiative forcing is a simple measure for both quantifying and ranking the many different
influences on climate change; it provides a limited measure of climate change as it does not
attempt to represent the overall climate response.

Since the TAR a number of studies have investigated the relationship between RF and climate
response, assessing the limitations of the RF concept; related to this there has been
considerable debate whether some climate change drivers are better considered as a forcing
or a response.
Figura 5. Mudanas
Changes in meanna temperatura media global
temperature (linhas
and em cores) e incertezas
uncertainties (reasto
relative sombreadas em
cores), relativas a 19862005, para os cenrios SRES do IPCC AR4 e RCPs do IPCC AR5. O numero de
1986-2005
modelos indicadoforentre
theparnteses.
SRES AIPCC As caixasAR4 and
no lado themostram
direto RCPsaof IPCC
media AR5.padro das
e o desvio
Number of models
projees de aumento is shown
da temperatura in(Knutti
at 100 parenthesis
et al 2012)
Total RF (anthropogenic plus natural) for RCPs and extended concentration pathways
(ECP)for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6, RCP8.5, as well as a supplementary extension RCP6
to 4.5 with an adjustment of emissions after 2100 to reach RCP4.5 concentration levels in
2250 and thereafter. Note that the stated RF levels refer to the illustrative default median
estimates only. There is substantial uncertainty in current and future RF levels for any given
scenario. Short-term variations in RF are due to both volcanic forcings in the past (1800
2000) and cyclical solar forcing assuming a constant 11-year solar cycle (following the
CMIP5 recommendation), except at times of stabilization.
Historical and projected total anthropogenic RF (W m2) relative to preindustrial (about
1765) between 1950 and 2100. Previous IPCC assessments (SAR IS92a, TAR/AR4 SRES A1B,
A2 and B1) are compared with representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios for
their extensions until 2300 and Annex II.
The total RF of the three families of scenarios, IS92, SRES and RCP, differ for example, for
the year 2000, resulting from the knowledge about the emissions assumed having changed
since the TAR and AR4.
 Total anthropogenic radiative forcing
IS92a (SAR), SRES (TAR/AR4), RCP (AR5)
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
Source: IPCC AR5
RCP 8.5
Rising radiative forcing pathway
leading to 8.5 W/m2 in 2100. (Riahi et
al. (2007), Rao & Riahi (2006))
RCP 6.0
Stabilization without overshoot
pathway to 6 W/m2 at stabilization
after 2100. (Fujino et al. (2006),
Hijioka et al. (2008))
RCP 4.5
Stabilization without overshoot
pathway to 4.5 W/m2 at stabilization
after 2100. (Smith and Wigley (2006),
Clarke et al. (2007), Wise et al. (2009))
RCP 2.6
Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3
W/m2 before 2100 and decline.
(van Vuuren et al. (2006; 2007))
Source: IPCC, 2014
 RCPs characteristics

Figura 4. Apresentao dos cenrios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) usados no

IPCC AR5. (Van Vuuren et al 2011)
Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature (GMST). (a)
Projections of annual mean GMST 19862050 (anomalies relative to 19862005) under all
RCPs from CMIP5 models (grey and coloured lines, one ensemble member per model), with
four observational estimates (Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface
temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF) interim re-analysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions (ERA-Interim),
Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)) for the period 19862012 (black lines). (b)
As (a) but showing the 5 to 95% range of annual mean CMIP5 projections
IPCC AR5 Projections (temperature)

RCP 8.5

RCP 6.0
RCP 4.5

RCP 2.6

Source: IPCC-AR5
IPCC AR5 Projections (2081-2100) minus (1986-2005)

Temp. (RCP 4.5) Temp. (RCP 8.5)

Prec. (RCP 4.5) Prec. (RCP 8.5)

Source: IPCC, 2014

 Global Climate Projections
RCP 2.6 (low emissions) and RCP 8.5 (high emissions)

Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%)

RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5

2041-2070 2071-2100 2041-2070 2081-2100

RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5

2041-2070 2071-2100 2041-2070 2081-2100

Relative to 1986-2005
 IPCC-AR5 Projections

Change in average precipitation

2081-2100 minus 1986-2005

RCP 8.5
Stronger Hadley and Walker
Circulations in Pacific and Atlantic
sectors drier tropical South
America

-
+
Precipitation Dipole main
mode of tropical-subtropical
variability in South America

The hatching represents areas where the signal is smaller than one standard deviation of
natural variability.
Source: IPCC, 2014
 Global
monsoon areas
Future RCP 4.5 and monsoon
intnsity

Future RCP 8.5

Simulat
OBSV
Annual mean changes in
precipitation (P),
evaporation (E), relative
humidity, E P, runoff and
soil moisture for 2081
2100 relative to 19862005
under the RCP8.5. The
number of CMIP5 Cmodels
to calculate
the multi-model mean is
indicated in the upper right
corner of each panel.
Hatching indicates regions
where the multi-model
mean change is less than
one standard deviation of
internal variability. Stippling
indicates regions where the
multi-model mean change
is greater than two
standard deviations of
internal variability and
where 90% of models agree
on the sign of change
 Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes
RCP 8.5
Change in temperature (oC)
Intensity of hot extremes (TXx): the annual
maximum value of daily maximum
temperature TXx TXx
CMIP5 CESM-IC

Intensity of cold extremes (TNn), the annual

minimum value of daily minimum temperature
TNn TNn
CMIP5 CESM-IC

Relative change in heavy precipitation (%)

Heavy precipitation intensity or maximum
accumulated five-day precipitation (RX5day):
the annual maximum value of precipitation RX5day RX5day
amount in mm for the five-day interval. CMIP5 CESM-IC

Change in dry spell length (days)

Dry spell length or consecutive dry days (CDD):
PR is the daily precipitation amount in mm on day i in
period j. Count the largest number of consecutive days
per time period (here calendar year) where PRij<1 mm. CDD CDD
CMIP5 CESM-IC
 Spatial distribution of changes in hot and cold extremes over land (RCP 8.5)

TXx Changes in 2016-2035 TNn Changes in 2016-2035

TXx Changes in 2041-2060
Red lines mark individual
models of CMIP5 and red
shading the 5th to 95th
percentile across the models
for each bin marking a certain
change
Blue lines show the individual
TNn Changes in 2041-2060 CESM-IC members and the blue
shading the respective range
across different members.
The changes expected owing
to internal variability are
shown as grey shading with
the solid black line marking
the mean.

The PDFs illustrate the land fraction in CMIP5 models (red lines) or CESM-IC members (blue
lines) experiencing a certain change.
 Spatial distribution of changes
in dry spell length and heavy precipitation intensity over land (RCP 8.5)

RX5day Changes in 2016-2035 CDD Changes in 2016-2035

Heavy Dry spell length
precipitation

RX5day Changes in 2041-2060 CDD Changes in 2041-2060

Heavy Dry spell length
precipitation

CESM-IC members consistently project more than 10% Dry spell length most models show only a weak signal and
increase in heavy precipitation intensity at a land do not agree whether most of the land fraction experiences
fraction of 2030. All CMIP5 models except INM-CM4 longer or shorter dry spells.
simulate substantial changes in the near future.
Extremes Flood

Global exposure to the 20th-century 100-

year flood in millions of people

Future Change in flood frequency

Annual global flood exposure increases

over the century by 4 to 14 times as
compared to the 20th century.

In the 2080s under RCP8.5, multi-model

median return period (years) for the 20th-
century 100-year flood.

Source: IPCC-AR5-WGII, Hirabayashi et al., 2013

CMIP5 multi-model simulated time
series from 1950 to 2100 for (a)
change in global annual mean surface
temperature relative to
19862005, (b) Northern Hemisphere
September sea ice extent (5-year
running mean), and (c) global mean
ocean surface pH. Time series of
projections
and a measure of uncertainty
(shading) are shown for scenarios
RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black
(grey shading) is the modelled
historical evolution
using historical reconstructed
forcings. The mean and associated
uncertainties averaged over
20812100 are given for all RCP
scenarios as colored vertical
bars.
Causes of global mean sea level rise
Compilation of paleo sealevel data (purple), tide gauge data (blue, red and green), altimeter
data (light blue) and central estimates and likely ranges for projections of global mean sea level
rise from the combination of CMIP5 and process-based models for RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5
(red) scenarios, all relative to pre-industrial values.
Climate change projections for South America IPCC AR5 WG2 (2014)
Climate change projections for Central America IPCC AR5 WG2 (2014)
Climate change projections for Central America IPCC AR5 WG2 (2014)
 IPCC AR5 WG2 (2014)
Changes in forest fire Danger
Spatial patterns of climate modes. All
patterns shown here are obtained by
regression of either sea surface
temperature (SST) or sea level
pressure (SLP) fields on the
standardized index of the climate
mode. Regressions were done on
monthly means for all patterns
except for NAO and PNA, which were
done with the DJFM means, and for
PSA1 and PSA2, where seasonal
means were used. Each regression
was done for the longest period
within the 1870-2012 interval when
the index was available. For each
pattern the time series was linearly
de-trended over the entire regression
interval. All patterns are shown by
color plots, except for PSA2, which is
shown by white contours over
the PSA1 color plot (contour steps
are 0.5 hPa, zero contour is skipped,
negative values are indicated by
dash).
Projections for the Amazon
Potential vegetation
simulated by CPTEC-PVM2
driven by four GCM's
climatologies:

(a) only 20702099 climate;

(b) 20702099 climate plus

730 ppmv CO2

Lapola, Oyama, Nobre 2009

2014: AR5 WGII: large-scale dieback due to climate

change alone is unlikely by the end of this century
(medium confidence), however, new evidence of
thresholds and positive feedbacks between drought, land-
use change and fire
 Projections of future climate
RCP2.6 RCP8.5
Change in average surface temperature 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 Increased
warming
Rainfall
projections
mixed
Change in average precipitation1986-2005 to 2081-2100 But lengthening
and
intensification of
dry seasons,
especially SE
IPCC AR5 figure SPM.8
Amazon basin

For the Amazon it is estimated that currently 58% of the area is too
humid to support deforestation fires but climate change might
reduce this area to 37% by 2050 AR5 WGI, Chp 6
CO could offset impacts, but there is much uncertainty
 ~ 47K
temperature
change in
CMIP5 models
by 2100 in
RCP8.5
 Brazil warms
~1/3 more
than the global
average

Uncertainty
relates to the
spread in
global
projections
 Uncertainty
in Brazil dT
strongly
correlated with
ECS

ECS explains
~70% of the
CMIP5 model range
variance
 CMIP5
models did not
sample full
range of ECS
uncertainty

Expert
assessment of
ECS implies a
wider range of
AR5 likely range < 5%
~3-8.5K
 Relationship to ECS works
at a grid box level, explains
~50% of the variance.

Normalised warming
pattern (removes ECS
effect) shows substantial
regional differences.

Quantifying local drivers of

climate change (e.g. land-
use) clearly important.
Changes in Sea ice extent and surface pH

Source: IPCC-AR5
Change in the
confidence levels
for extreme events
based on prior
IPCC assessments:
TAR, AR4 and
SREX. Types of
extreme events
discussed in all
three reports are
highlighted in
green.
Modeling
(simulating or
reconstructing
climates of the
pasty
Reconstructed (grey ) and simulated (red/blue) NH Temperature
Explosive Volcanic
Eruptions: Proof of
Fast-Response Climate
Change Due to Forcing

Changing forcing
changes the
temperature (and
water vapor, etc.).

If volcanoes can cool,

then GHG must
warm.
Volcanic eruptions
Volcanoes and climate
Volcanoes and climate
 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (in the future)?

There is high confidence that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will remain
the dominant mode of natural climate variability in the 21st century with global
influences in the 21st century, and that regional rainfall variability it induces likely
intensifies.

Natural variations of the amplitude and spatial pattern of ENSO are so large that
confidence in any projected change for the 21st century remains low.

The projected change in El Nino amplitude is small for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
compared to the spread of the change among models

Over the North Pacific and North America, patterns of temperature and
precipitation anomalies related to El Nino and La Nina (teleconnections) are
likely to move eastwards in the future (medium confidence), while confidence is
low in changes in climate impacts on other regions including Central and South
Americas, the Caribbean, Africa, most of Asia, Australia and most Pacific Islands.
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes
in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and
in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4.
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
Climate Change will continue long after 2100
and high climate risk may persist for Melting of
centuries Greenland
ice-sheet

Over the long term, a number of limits to

adaptability will be transgressed
(e.g., sea level rise for coastal cities) Melting of
Antarctic
ice-sheet

Estimates of long-term committed sea level

All
rise per degree of warming (held constant over contributions
long-term) resulting from:
(c) melting of Greenland ice-sheet
(d) melting of Antarctic ice-sheet
(e) all contributions
Source: IPCC AR5 WGI Fig. 13.14
 Major research gaps - Aerosols
Aerosol absorption is not well observed. Black carbon is
underestimated in source regions but possibly overestimated in remote
regions in global models better observations & models, high
resolution modelling

Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to be a stumbling block in

climate models but new approaches are now possible (large-domain
CRM and LES, new parameterizations, systematic verification of weather
models, data assimilation techniques, etc.)

Trends in aerosols are not well understood at the global scale

better monitoring & satellite calibration, source inversion, sampling
uncertainties in the historical period, focus on the last 40-50 years in
Earths energy budget studies

Robust circulation trends in response to the aerosol forcing

Projected impacts of climate change in key sectors in the Latin America and Caribbean region.
Warming levels are relative to pre-industrial temperatures. The impacts shown here are a
subset of those summarized in IPCC AR5 WG1. The arrows indicate solely the range of
warming levels assessed in the underlying studies, but do not imply any graduation of risk
unless noted explicitly.
 IMPACTS

CLIMATE SOCIOECONOMIC
Vulnerability PROCESSES

Natural Socioeconomic
Variability Pathways

Hazards RISK Adaptation and

Mitigation
Anthropogenic Actions
Climate Change

Governance
Exposure

EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
New Conceptual Framework for Minimizing Risk
Adaptation & Interactions
with Mitigation
Vulnerability & Exposure Socioeconomic
Incremental pathways
& transformational
Vulnerability & exposure reduction Diverse values & objectives
IMPACTS adaptation
Low-regrets strategies & actions Climate
Co-benefits, resilient&pathways
synergies, trade-
Addressing multidimensional offs Transformation
inequalities Context-specific adaptation
Complementary actions
CLIMATE SOCIOECONOMIC
Vulnerability PROCESSES
Vulnerability
Natural
Socioeconomic
Socioeconomic
Variability
Pathways Pathways

Hazards RISK
Risk Adaptation and
Anthropogenic Mitigation Actions Adaptation and
Anthropogenic Climate Change Mitigation Actions
Climate Change Governance
Exposure

Exposure Governance
Risk
Risk assessment
Iterative risk management
Governance
Risk perception Decision- making under
EMISSIONS uncertainty
Anthropogenic
and Land-use Change Learning, monitoring, &
Climate Change flexibility
Mitigation Coordination across scales
Dangerous climate change
Climate change-Laudato Si