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1/16/2017 Mrunal[Aptitude]ProbabilityMadeEasy(ExtensionofPermutationCombinationConcept!

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[Aptitude]ProbabilityMadeEasy(ExtensionofPermutation
CombinationConcept!)
PostedByOn12/03/2012@7:11pmInAptitude|23Comments

Introduction
Case1:ProbabilityofParticularActorgettingselected
Case2:ProbabilityofOneladygettingselected
Case3:Onemanandonewoman(ANDcase)
Case4:Atleastonemanisselected(ORcase)
Alternativemethod:1Minus
Case5:ProbabilityofNotgettingselected
MockQuestionsforCSAT,CMAT,IBPS,StatePSC
Diceprobability
BagsandBalls:WITHOUTReplacement
BagsandBalls:WITHReplacement
RecommendedBooklist
MyPreviousArticlesonAptitude
Introduction
ProbabilityismerelyasubtypeofPermutationandCombination(PnC)concept.
Probabilitycanbesolvedwithoutmuggingupformulas,ifyourbasicconceptsareclear.
So,beforeproceedinginthisarticle,DOreadmypreviousarticle:Permutation&Combination
(PnC)madeeasywithoutformulas
SinceImnotinterestedintalkingaboutcoins,diceandcardinprobabilityarticle,Letsgetbackto
GokuldhaamSociety.
Welllearnalltheconceptsofprobability,withfollowing6characterssokeepthenamesandfacesin
mind.
CharactersofTarakMehtaKaOoltaChashma

Case1:ProbabilityofParticularActor
gettingselected
DirectorAsitModiwantstoshootanepisodeinEsselWorldwaterpark,hehastopickuponlyone
characteroutofthegivensixcharacter.WhatistheprobabilitythatJethalalwillbeselectedforthis
episode?
Howmanywayscanyouchoose1characteroutofthegiventalentpoolof6characters?
Fundamentalcountingprinciple:6ways.(or6C1=6)
Meanstotalpossibleresults=6.
Andwhatisaskedinthequestion?
Jethalalshouldgetselected.

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SokeepJethalalasideinaseparatetalentpoolandaskyourself,howmanywayscanJethalalbe
selectedoutofgiventalentpool?
Thereisonecharacterandwevetopickuponecharacter:1C1=Onewayonly.
Desiredresult=1ways
Matterisfinished.
Probability=Desiredresultdividedbytotalresults=1/6
Jethalalhasbetoselected

Seethephoto,itshouldmakethepictureclear
NowImmodifyingthecase

Case2:ProbabilityofOneladygetting
selected
Case2:ProbabilityofOneladygettingselected

Quest.Samequestionasbefore.Modihastopickuponecharacteroutofthegivensix.Whatisthe
probabilityofaladygettingselected?..ContinueReading

Totalresultsremainsthesame:6C1=6asincase#1
Andwhatisasked?
Onelady.
Howmanyladiesdowehaveinthistalentpool?2(AnjaliandBabita)
Puttheminseparateladiestalentpool.
Howmanywayscanyouselectoneladyoutofthegiventwoladies?:2ways(2C1)=desiredresult
Probability=2/6=1/3

Alternative:Samequestionrephrased:
Whatistheprobabilitythattheselectedonecharacterhasmoustaches?
Outofthegivensix,onlytwohasmoustaches(Jethalal,Mehtasaab)
ThenprincipleremainsthesameasinCase#2

Case#3:Onemanandonewoman
Q.Modihastoselectateamof2charactersoutofgivensix.Whatistheprobabilitythatithasone
manandonewoman?
Againthisisacombinationproblem,wevetoselectacommitteeoftwopeople.JethaMehta(JM)
issameasMehtaJetha(MJ)

Totalresults
Howmanywayscanyouselecttwocharactersoutofgivensix?

Howmanywayscanyouselecttwocharactersoutofgivensix?
=(6x5)/(2x1)=15(=6C2)
Howdidwegetthis^?
Yourcombinationconceptshouldberocksolidnow.Ifnot,readmypreviousPnCarticleagain.

Desiredresult
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Desiredresult
Selectionofonemanandonewoman.
Recalltheveryfirstexampleonfundamentalcounting.
Jethalalhadtopickuptwotrains.(MumbaiAbadandAhmedabadKutch).Sameprincipleis
appliedhere
Selectionofonemanandonewoman

=[pickonemanoutofgiven4](multiply)[pickonewomanoutofgiven2]=4x2
=8ways.
WhenANDisasked.Youmultiplythecases.
Youcanalsolookatthisasacombinationproblem
ChooseonemanCommitteeoutof4menandchooseonewomanCommitteeoutof2women.
=4C1x2C1
=4x2=8ways.
Desiredresult=8ways.
Finalanswer
Probability=Desiredresult/Totalresults=8/15

Case4:Atleastonemanisselected
Ques.DirectAsitModihastoselect2charactersoutofgivensix.Whatistheprobabilityatatleast
oneofthemisaman.
WhentheyaskAtleastorAtmostetcwevetobreakupthecase.

genderwisebreakup

Teamoftwoactorscanbeformedinfollowingfashion
1.1manand1woman.(Orderdoesntmatter,thisisaCommittee!)
2.Bothmen
3.Bothwomen
Atleast1maninateamoftwomemebersmeans
=[1manand1woman]OR[2men]Atmost1maninateamoftwomembers
=[Zeroman,2women]or[1man,1woman]WhenORcomes,wevetoADD(+)theprobabilities.
TotalresultsIssame:6C2=15ways.
Desiredresults=[1man1woman](OR)+[Twomen]

Situation#1:OnemanandOnewoman
Desiredresult=8ways.(wealreadydidthisinCase#3)

Situation#2:Twomen
ConceptissameasCase#2
Therearefourmen:Jethalal,Mehtasaab,Bhide,Aiyyar
Keepthemasideinaseperatetalentpool
Howmanywayscanyoupickup2actorsoutofthegiven4?
Combinationproblem

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=(4x3)/2x1
=6ways.

Finalanswer
Probability=DesiredresultdividedbyTotalresults
=(Situation#1ORsituation#2)/totalresult
=(8+6)/15becauseORmeansaddition(+)
=14/15

Alternativemethod:1Minus
Totalsumofallprobabilities=1(accordingtotheory)
Wehadtoselect2actorsoutofgiven6.Sogenderwisethreesituationspossibleinthisteam
1.Twomen(MM)
2.Twowomen(FF)
3.OnemanandOneWoman(MF)
Totalprobability(1)=MM+FM+MF
OurquestionwasAtleastonemanhence(MM+FM)
So,Probabilityofatleastoneman
=1minusprobabilityoftwowomen(FF)
MM+FM=1FF
Sofindtheprobabilitytotwowomengettingselected?
Desiredresult=2women
Sameascase#2
KeepAnjaliandBabitainaseparatetalentpool.
Howmanywayscanyouselecttwoactressesoutofthegiventwoactresses?
Obviously1way.(2C2)becauseyoullhavetotakebothofthem!
Totalresult=alreadycounted6C2=15
Probability(FF)=1/15
Soourquestion
=1(1/15)
=14/15
Comparetheanswer.ITissamewhatwegotinthefirstmethodofCase#4.

Case5:Notgettingselected
ThisoneisveryeasybutwritingitjustincaseAlternativemethodofcase#4didnotclickyour
mind.
Ques.DirectAsitModiwantstoselectonecharacteroutofthegivensix.Whatistheprobability
thatAnjaliwillnotbeselected?
Method1:Directmethod
Totalresults=6C1=6ways(toselect1characteroutofgiven6)
Desiredresults
WedontwantAnjaliintheselectionsowekeepAnjaliasideandcreateanewtalentpooloffive

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remainingcharacters
(Jethalal,Mehtasaab,Bhide,AiyyarandBabitaji)

AnjaliNot

Pickanyoneoutofthisfiveandweredone,wellsatisfythedesiredresultthatAnjaliisnot
selected.
So,Howmanycanyoupickuponecharacteroutoffive?=5ways(5C1)
Hence
Finalprobability=desiredresultsdividedbytotalresults
=5/6

IndirectMethod:Oneminusother
probabilities
Accordingtotheory,Totalsumofallprobabilities=1
SoProbabilityofAnjaliNOTgettingselected
=1minus[ProbabilityofAnjaligettingselected]Justlikecase#1,ProbabilityofAnjaligetting
selectedis1/6
=11/6
=5/6
^Formula:P(E)=1P(E)

MockAptitudeQuestionsfromProbability
topic
InyourUPSCCSAT,CMAT,StatePSCorBankPO(IBPS)exams,mostprobablytheyllaskyouvery
clichedquestionsaboutcoinsanddice,bagsandballs,orcardgames.
Letssolveafew.

DiceProbabilityquestion
Q.Twodicearetossedonce.Whatstheprobabilitythatbothofthemwillshowevennumbers?
Concentrateononediceonly.
Adicehas6numbersonit:1,2,3,4,5,6
Youtossitonce,andonenumberwillappear.
Totalresults=6C1=6ways.
Desiredresult:Wewantevennumber.
EvenNumbersarethree:2,4,6
HowmanywayscanoneEvennumberappearoutofthegiventhree?3C1=3
Probabilityofonediceshowingevennumber
=Desiredresult/Totalresults
=3C1/6C1
=3/6
=1/2{Fixedasillymistakehere,ThanksMr.Manikantforpointingitout.}
Probabilityoftwodiceshowingevennumbers
=firstdiceshowsevennumber(AND)seconddicealsoshowsevennumber

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=1/2x1/2ANDmeansmultiplication
=1/4finalanswer

Bagsandballs:Replacementkillers
Q.Abagcontainsfourblackandfiveredballs,ifthreeballsarepickedatrandomoneafteranother
withoutreplacement,whatisthechancethattheyreallblack?
Totalballs=fourblack+fivered=9balls

ShorterMethod
TotalResults:Howmanywayscanyoupick3ballsoutof9balls?:
ComeonthisisjustanotherCombinationproblem,9C3=(9x8x7)/(3x2x1)=84.
DesiredResult:Howmanywayscanyoupick3ballsoutofgiven4blackballs?:4C3=4
(choosing3outofgiven4,issameasrejectingoneoutofgiven4meansyoucandoit4ways)
FinalProbability
=Desired/Total
=4C3/9C3
=4/84
=1/21

LongerMethodandExplanationforthisBagsandBalls
problem
Wehavetopickupthreeballsoneafteranotherandwewantthemtobeblack.Means
1stpickingblackAND2ndpickingisblackand3rdpickingisblackAndmeansmultiply.
Itspecificallymentionsthatwithoutreplacement,meaningeverytimeballswilldecreaseandour
totaleventswillchangeaccordingly.

1stpick
Totalresults=pickoneoutofgiven9=9ways
Desired=pickoneoutofgiven4black=4ways
Hence,1stpickingprobability=4/9

2ndpick
Nowwevetotal8ballsleft,3ofthemareblack
Runthesameprocedureoffirstpick:andyougetprobability3/8
Samewaythirdpick:2/7

Finalprobability
=firstpickblackANDxsecondpickblackANDthirdpickblack(Andmeansmultiplication)
=(4/9)x(3/8)x(2/7)
=1/21
Nowcomparethiswiththeshortermethodexplainedpreviously
Essentially(4/9)x(3/8)x(2/7)iswhatyougetwhenyouexpandtheFormula:4C3/9C3.(Because
3!factorialwillcanceleachother)
Ballswithandwithoutreplacement

BallsWITHReplacement
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BallsWITHReplacement
Q.Abagcontainsfourblackandfiveredballs,ifthreeballsarepickedatrandomoneafteranother
WITHreplacement,whatisthechancethattheyreallblack?
Itisthesamequestionslikepreviousonebut,WITHreplacementmeansyoupickupaballnote
downitscolorandthenputitbackinthebagagain.SoTotalNumberofballsremainsameforeach
event.AndHenceprobabilityofpickingablackball(4/9)remainsthesameineverycase.
1stPickup:4/9ascalculatedaboveunder1stPicktopic
2ndPickup:4/9becauseweputtheballbackinthebag,Soprobabilityissameas1stPick.
3rdPickup:4/9becauseweputtheballbackinthebag.
Sofinalprobability
=1stx2ndx3rd
=4/9x4/9x4/9
=Cubeof4/9
=64/729

TheEndNotYet
Thisismerelyatipoftheiceberg.TogetafirmgripoverProbabilitytopic,Youmustpracticeas
manysumsasyoucan.Otherwiseyoullmakesillymistakesincalculationorgetstuckfor710
minutesinasimplesuminsidetheexamhall.PracticeistheKEYtoattainperfection.Soopenyour
books,startsolving.

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