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ON
DISINVESTMENT IN INDIA
A FAILURE STORY
Submitted To Submitted By
MR.G.S.KHERA JUBIN ANAND (FM-B-06)
NAVEEN RAMNANI (FM-B-06)
Acknowledgement
Regards
NAVEEN RAMNANI (FM-B-06)
JUBIN ANAND (FM-B-07)
Executive Summary
Privatization, a key component of economic liberalization remained
dormant for the nearly the entire first decade of significant
economic reforms in India. The usual explanations have been that
weak governments could not overcome the many vested interests or
that there has been ideological resistance to economic reforms
among India’s elites.
How does one explain both the gradualism during the 1990s and
the recent episodic acceleration of privatization in India and what
does it reveal both about state capabilities and the strength of
societal actors?
This report argues that it was not “vested interests” alone, but
institutional structures, in particular those embedded in the
judiciary, parliament and India’s financial institutions, that account
for the lag between the onset of economic liberalization and
privatization and its episodic nature. Changes in the perceived costs
of the status quo of state-owned enterprises also played a role in the
timing of reforms. Just as the external debt crisis forced the initial
round of economic reforms, the growing internal debt problem and
the fiscal crisis of the Indian state has increased the
opportunity cost of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The
passage of time has also resulted in significant changes in Indian
policymakers and citizens’ attitudes regarding the relative
effectiveness of state and markets in commercial activities, as well
as their assumptions about the Indian state being a “guardian of the
public interest.”
TABLE OF CONTENT
Chapter 1 – A background
Objective
Relevance of study
Methodology
Literature review
Public sector performance since 1950 by R Nagaraj
Disinvestment in India” by Sudhir Nair
Disinvestment in India, I loose and you gain by P. Baijal
Brief Introduction
Chapter 7 – Suggestions
Bibliography
Background
OBJECTIVE:
RELEVANCE OF STUDY:
LITERATURE REVIEW
The paper elicits that since the mid-1980s, the public sector’s share
in domestic investment has been nearly halved, but its output share
has remained roughly constant at about a quarter of GDP,
suggesting a sustained rise in productivity over nearly two decades.
The paper defines three major evidences for the improvement in
performance.
The author then goes ahead to question why then the public sector
finances remained adverse. In electricity, passenger road transport
and railways the revenue-cost ratio is less than one, and has
declined since the early 1990s. Moreover, over the last 40 years,
the public sector price deflator declined by 17 percentage points,
relative to the GDP deflator. Hence, the author concludes that
correct pricing and collecting user charges are probably key to
setting public sector finances right.
INTRODUCTION
The new strategies for the public sector were later outlined in the
policy statements in the years 1973, 1977, 1980 and 1991. The
year 1991 can be termed as the watershed year, heralding
liberalization of the Indian economy.
The public sector provided the required thrust to the economy and
developed and nurtured the human resources, the vital ingredient
for success of any enterprise; public or private.
OBJECTIVES FOR THE FORMATION OF PSUS
DEFINITION:
TYPES OF DISINVESTMENT
3. INTERNATIONAL OFFERING:
OBJECTIVES OF DISINVESTMENT:
This will indicate the net assets of the enterprise as shown in the
books of accounts. It shows the historical value of the assets. It is
the cost price less depreciation provided so far on assets. It does
not reflect the true position of profitability of the firm as it
overlooks the value of intangibles such as goodwill, brands,
distribution network and customer relationships which are
important to determine the intrinsic value of the enterprise. This
model is more suitable in case of liquidation than in case of
disinvestment.
In this method the future incremental cash flows are forecasted and
discounted into present value by applying cost of capital rate. The
method indicates the intrinsic value of the firm and this method is
considered as superior than other methods as it projects future cash
flows and the earning potential of the firm, takes into account
intangibles such as brand equity, marketing & distribution
network, the level of competition likely to be faced in future, risk
factors to which enterprises are exposed as well as value of its core
assets.
While the first ruling gave impetus for strategic sale of many
enterprises like Hindustan Zinc, Maruti, and VSNL etc. since
2000, the second ruling stalled the privatisation of the petroleum
companies, as government was unsure of getting the laws amended
in the parliament.
DISINVESTMENT IN INDIA –
POLICY, PROCEDURE AND
PROCEEDS
BACKGROUND:
Investment
(Current Prices,% GDP) 10.2 15.7 16.6 22.7 24.1
Investment
(Constant 1980-81 prices,
%GDP) 14.7 18.1 18.7 22.7 21.8
Domestic Savings
(Current Prices, %GDP) 10.4 12.7 15.7 21.2 21.7
2. FISCAL DEFICIT OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT
• Again the gulf war of 1990 brought the nation to the brink of
international debt.
TIMELINE:
DISINVESTMENT IN 1991-92:
In second tranche, the reserve price fixed per bundle was Rs10.08
crore. Bids were invited from 36 institutions and banks. A total of
Rs.1611 crore were realised with Unit Trust of India again being
the major purchaser. The Shares of Metal Scrap Trading
Corporation remained unsold.
Details of the PSEs Divested in 1991-92
No. Of
Shares(in % of
Name of the Enterprise crore) Disinvestment
DISINVESTMENT IN 1992-93:
The target during this fiscal year was kept at Rs 3500 crore but the
government could not go
in for further sale of shares due to unfavourable stock market
conditions through 1993-94.
DISINVESTMENT IN 1994-95:
Out of these 7 PSE, only 1 PSE was not sold as no bid had been
received.
B) SECOND TRANCHE OF DISINVESTMENT
(OCTOBER 1994):
In January 1995 shares of 6 PSEs were offered for sale. Out of 556
bids received, 209 were accepted in respect to 5 companies and
government decided not to sell shares in VSNL.
PSE Divested in January, 1995
% of Total
number of Amount of
No. Of Shares shares of the Sale(in Rs
Name of the Enterprise Sold(in crore) PSE Crore)
Engineers India Ltd 0.108 5.99 67.526
Gas Authority of India Ltd 2.853 194.12
ITDC 0.675 51.985
Indian Oil Corporation Limited 0.008 5.538
Kudremukh Iron Ore Company Ltd 0.616 11.399
TOTAL 4.26 330.568
DISINVESTMENT IN 1996-97
The budget for 1999 – 2000 had taken a credit for Rs 10,000 crore
to be realised through disinvestment. The government disinvested
from Modern Foods India Ltd and did a strategic sale to their
strategic partner – HLL for Rs 105, 45 crore for a 74 % equity
stake. This was the first time government had sold more than 50 %
holding.
TOTAL 1868.73
ITDC Sale of 8 hotels and long term lease of one hotel 179.56
TOTAL 3130.94
DISINVESTMENT IN 2002 – 2003:
The government had fixed a high target for the year 2003 – 04 as
14,500crore. The strategic sale of JCL, and offer sales of many
PSEs like MUL, IBP, IPCL, CMC, DCI, GAIL and
ONGC has exceeded the target fixed by the government to a total
receipt of Rs15,547.41crore . Out of this Rs12, 741.62crore
receipts through sale of minority shareholding in CPSEs. In 2004 –
05 the target was reduced to Rs 4,000 crore and share sales of
NTPC, ONGC spillovers and IPCL shares to employees pushed the
total receipts to Rs 2,764.87
crore. In the other 3 years of this phase – from 2005 – 06 till 2007
– 2008 the government fixed no targets and the total receipts were
very less to with the year 2006 – 07 yielding no receipts at all.
(iv) 75 per cent of the annual income of the Fund will be used to
finance selected social sector schemes, which promote education,
health and employment. The residual 25 per cent of the annual
income of the Fund will be used to meet the capital investment
requirements of profitable and revivable CPSEs that yield adequate
returns, in order to enlarge their capital base to finance
expansion/diversification.
CORPUS OF NIF:
Thus, the average income was 9.245% against the hurdle rate of
9.25%.
The IPOs that may flag off the divestment process may well be
NHPC, RITES and Oil India, which have already filed their
respective draft prospectuses with SEBI over the past two
years.
Long on the stake sale shortlist, the following PSUs are possible
candidates which may seek listing through an IPO/offer for sale
route.
OPERATIONS
DISINVESTMENT PROCESS:-
ENERGY FOOD 71 71 66
Steps were taken to improve the quality of bread, its packaging and
marketing with trade-promotion activities, and to train the
manpower in quality control systems. In November, 2002 wages
have increased by an average of Rs.1800 per employee. Rs.30crore
was spent for VRS. Again Rs. 7 crore were infused for safety &
hygiene purposes at various manufacturing locations.
The Government was also entitled to ‘Put’ its share of
remaining equity of 26 % at Fair Market Value for 2 years
from 31 January 01 to 30 January 03. The Government
exercised this option and thereby received Rs.44.07crore on
28th November 02.
THE FAILURE:-
Despite HUL’s best efforts MFIL continued to make losses, HUL
had invested 157 crore in MFIL’s equity. In 2005, its losses were
Rs 15 crore and accumulated losses were Rs 79 crore. At the
operating profit level, before interest and depreciation, it did make
a profit though of Rs22crore compared to a loss of Rs 7 crore in the
previous year.
There were three bidders viz the US-based Alcoa and Indian
market leader Hindalco and Sterlite. Sterlite’s financial bid was the
highest among the bidders, according to an official release by the
government. The company was valued by three different methods:
· Transparency
· Valuation
· Protection of employees’ interests
· Although there were three bidders, Sterlite’s financial bid was the
highest among the bidders, according to an official release by the
government. Intact, government claimed that it was getting a price
greater than expected.
However, there are certain facts from the other angle that demand
attention. The following tries to uncover some of them:
CONCLUSION:-
PRIOR TO DIVESTMENT:
When the privatization process of VSNL began in 1991-2, there
was no blueprint for the same. In retrospect, there have been three
phases.
The offloading of shares to domestic investors;
The offloading of shares in the international market;
Strategic sale.
GDR ISSUES
The Global Depository Receipt (GDR) issue for VSNL was the
first of its kind by the GOI. It helped VSNL to raise a substantial
surplus that was earmarked for investments for its growth. The first
GDR issue (listed on the London Stock Exchange) was offered in
1996-97. It fetched US$ 526.6 million in the market. At that time,
it was the largest GDR issue from India. The offer was
oversubscribed, drawing 662 investors from 28 countries. The
second GDR issue was completed in February 1999. It involved a
divestment of 10 million shares by the government of India to
international investors. Priced at US$ 9.25 it was at a 15%
premium on the last closing domestic price of Rs. 682 and a 10%
discount to the ten-day average GDR price of US$ 10.275. The
government realized US$ 185 million from the sale of 20 million
GDRs with each GDR being equivalent to half a share. The
organizational problems in VSNL around the time of the second
GDR issue could have been one of the factors that led to lower
valuations. During the process of the second GDR issue, the VSNL
staff had threatened a walkout owing to the pending issue of
allotting shares to employees. Due to delays in the government
processes, VSNL did not have a chief executive and many other
crucial director level posts were vacant. The first GDR’s
Investment promises were not fulfilled and a promised domestic
offering had not been made.
THE VALUATION
The government had fixed a reserve price of Rs 1,218.375 crore
for its 25% stake in VSNL. In an effort to bolster the VSNL
valuation, the GOI intended to compensate the loss of monopoly
through special concessions. The government owned MTNL and
BSNL would have to use VSNL as their ILD carrier for two years
on the condition that it would offer the most competitive terms in
the market. VSNL would also get a free license to provide NLD,
and a nationwide ISP license. In addition, VSNL possessed prime
real estate in Mumbai and Delhi and also cable capacities to
facilitate international traffic. One of the major assets was the cash
stockpile of Rs 5,182 crore which was considerable even after
disbursement of the special dividends. Among the concerns were
the loss of monopoly and the uncertainty of the loyalty of BSNL
and MTNL to continue to use VSNL for their international traffic,
the dipping share prices of VSNL and the falling accounting rates
that could lead to lower revenues. One of the major issues involved
during the valuation process included the management of real
estate owned by VSNL. The disinvestment process stipulated that
at least four VSNL surplus properties valued at Rs 778 crore would
not be available and were to be disassociated from VSNL after the
disinvestment. Even so, real estate value that would accompany
VSNL was around Rs 1,200 crore
CONCLUSION:
The privatisation of VSNL is seen as leading to public expenditure
accountability through a realisation of higher return on the
government’s asset formation. It also leads to an appreciation of
the remaining shares that are held by the government. To the
citizen, the process is a step towards the provision of better quality
communication services at the most competitive prices. Public
flotation of stock might have led to better values for VSNL's stock,
had the company been correctly `prepared' for privatisation. Thus,
disinvestment of VSNL was clouded with controversies and
speculations and this fact further indicates the failure of the
disinvestment policy adopted in the case of VSNL, and also
highlights the wrong reasons for which the disinvestment of VSNL
took place and its ultimate failure to match the required
expectation of such a step. This case on VSNL further corroborates
to the fact, that the disinvestment policies adopted in India have
been a failure so far.
CRITICAL ANALYSIS
REVIEW OF DISINVESTMENT AND PRIVATIZATION