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Table of Contents

Introduction................................................................................................................................1

Conclusion................................................................................................................................10

References................................................................................................................................11

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INTRODUCTION

The financial valuation of investment opportunities and other assets is essential for

investors and organizations. In present scenario the risk-return profile of all investment

options is judged effectively so as to select the most suitable offerings. Moreover, different

kinds of investment options are available in the present era. These include investment in

shares, bonds, derivatives and other instruments. It is essential to estimate and assess the fair

value of investment options. The report proposed herewith provides an overview of manner

in which various investment options can be valued. It throws light on importance of financial

risk management. The report develops deep understanding of manner in which risk associated

with investment options is measured and supports investment decision making.

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Investors are expected to generate adequate return on investment made in shares. The

return on investment in shares is generated by two ways: annual dividends and capital

appreciation (Lee and et. al., 2012). In order to test the fair value of shares the expected

return for investment in shares can be estimate through Capital Assets Pricing Model

(CAPM) (Milionis, 2011). The expected return for investment option provided is measured

below.

E ( r )=Rf + (RmRf ) (CAPM model)

Where,

E(r) is expected rate of return

Rm is market rate

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Rf is risk-free rate

(Rm-Rf) is risk premium

is beta- value

E ( r )=Rf + ( RmRf )

Rf =52.8

( RmRf ) =7.4

=1.5

E ( r )=5.28+1.5 ( 7.45.28 )

E ( r )=5.28+1.5 ( 2.12 )

E ( r )=5.28+3.18

E ( r )=8.46

It is seen that investor needs to assume high level of risk by making investment into

shares of the organization provided. The investors assume high level of risk and expect

adequate level of return on the investment made (Hong and Sarkar, 2007). The expected

return for risky shares given in present case is measured at 8.46%. The percentage of return

generated through dividend recently paid is estimated below.

Dividend per share= 5.25 per share

Trading price of share= 60.25 per share

5.25

Return generated= ( 60.25 100 ) per share

It is seen that the company is paying sufficient amount of dividends on its share. At

Beta- value of 1.5 investors expects return of 8.46%. However, the dividend of 5.25 per

share is accounted for return of 8.71% per share. This in turn indicates that share is priced

appropriately. The investors have generated return through dividends slightly more than

expected return. Moreover, in case prices of shares go up there are chances of earning capital

appreciation. It can be said that, the investment in shares is capable of meeting shareholders

expectations. The company is paying sufficient level of return in the form of dividends for

high degree of risk assumed. The value of Alfa as per expected and actual return is estimated

below.

Alfa =Actual returnExpected return

Alfa=8.71 8.46 =0.25

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The positive value of 0.25% indicates slightly undervaluation of share price. The

positive value suggests undervaluation of stock. Moreover, the value close to zero indicates

lower degree of undervaluation (Pirie and Smith, 2008). It can be said that the company is

satisfying needs of its shareholders by declaring sufficient level of dividends. It can be said

that the dividend declared by the organization meets up shareholders expectation of return on

investment. In order to value stock price it is assumed that shareholders mostly generates

return in form of dividends. Henceforth, the actual return is estimated through return

generated in the form of dividends paid by the organization. The capital appreciation is

assumed to be neutral for affecting investment decisions. It can be said that shares are

appropriately priced for the organization into consideration. On the basis of valuation of

shares, it can be claimed that the shares are meant for the high risky investors. This implies

that investors who want to earn high level of return by assuming sufficient level of risk has an

option to make investment in the organization. The high level of beta is supported by high

level of return on shares in the form of dividend. This in turn indicates that are appropriately

valued or priced for trading in the market.

Interest rate Swaps provide an option to either convert fixed rate to floating rate or

vice versa. According to Grinblatt (2001), swaps involve exchange of cash flows as desired

by investors. Financial intermediaries or banking institutions provide quotes for facilitating

swaps between two parties. In present case the company has borrowed money for five year at

interest rate of 7%. The business unit desires to convert fixed rate liability into floating rate

liability. It can approach financial intermediary to enter into swap agreement. The quotes

declared by banking institution to facilitate swap agreement are presented in table

underneath.

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The table presented above indicates Bid and offer rate as declared by bank. It suggests

that bank is ready to enter into swap agreement for two years whereby it pays fixed rate of

6.03% and receive LIBOR. Besides, bank is ready to receive interest at 6.06% and pay

LIBOR. The difference between bid and offer rate represents spread that is earned by banking

unit (Hull, 2015). Swap rate represents average of bid and offer rate declared by the financial

institution.

The company wants to convert its fixed rate liability of 5 years at floating rate. As per

5-year quote for bid rate, the organization can enter into swap agreement. The business unit

can pay LIBOR to bank in exchange of fixed interest rate of 6.47%. The bank is ready to pay

fixed rate of 6.47% and receive LIBOR for five years. The agreement therefore can be

entered between the business unit and banking unit. As per the agreement banking unit will

pay fixed interest of 6.47% and receive LIBOR in return. However, the company has

borrowed funds at rate of 7%. The remaining portion of interest needs to be paid on part of

the organization. Henceforth, the business unit is able to exchange its fixed rate liability for

LIBOR + 0.53% (i.e. 7% - 6.47%). It is through swap agreement that the business unit is

able to pay interest at floating rate. As per the agreement the organization needs to pay

LIBOR to financial intermediary and receive interest at fixed rate of 6.47%. The fixed

interest received can be utilized for settling the part of interest on its outstanding debt

obligation. It is seen that swap agreement helps the organization to exchange its fixed

obligation in return of floating rate obligation. Many-a-times the business units feel

overburdened of its fixed interest obligation or risky due to floating rate of interests. This in

turn results in arising need for either converting fixed to floating or vice versa. Intermediaries

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play an important role by declaring bid and offer rate for various swap agreements. In present

case the organization is able to convert its fixed rate liability into floating rate on the basis of

quotes declared. The swap agreement provides the organization an opportunity to pay interest

at LIBOR + 0.53% in exchange of fixed rate of 7%. As per agreement the bank is going to

receive LIBOR rate and pays 6.47% of interest.

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through issue of bonds. It is the form of debt-fund that is issued by corporate and government

to meet financial required. It is perceived that bonds are safer option for investors since it

guarantees regular return (Klein and Stellner, 2014). Moreover, the initial amount paid to

purchase bonds is repaid on its maturity. The concept of duration of bond is considered to

highly important element for understanding investment in bonds.

Duration in context of bonds is time period in years taken to make repayment of

initial price and return guaranteed on bond. The risk associated with bonds is considered to be

higher for bonds with large duration. This is due to increasing price volatility with long

duration to maturity. Majorly, there are two types of bonds whose duration varies with its

nature. Two kinds of bonds and respective durations for same are described below in detail.

Zero-coupon bond: The zero-coupon bonds are also termed as discount or deep

discount bonds. These bonds do not involve payment of interests in form of coupons on

regular basis. In case of zero-coupon bonds investor tends to make purchase of bonds at price

lower than face value (Hyman and et. al., 2015). The amount however is recovered at face

value on date of maturity. Henceforth, duration in case of zero-coupon bond is equivalent to

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time till maturity for the bond. The entire amount of investment plus return on same is

recovered on date of maturity in case of zero-coupon bond. This in turn indicates that the

duration for zero-coupon bond is equal to total time required for maturity.

Vanilla Bond: The bond that pays regular interest payments in form of coupon

payments are termed as Vanilla Bond. As the name suggests vanilla bond does not involve

any kind of additional features. The regular interest payments are made at fixed rate of

interests and bond is redeemed at face value on maturity. The duration in case of vanilla bond

is always estimated to be lesser than time to maturity of bonds. It can be therefore said that

duration for recovering initial investment differs with kind of bonds.

In order to calculate duration for bonds different factors are taken into consideration.

These factors include bonds maturity, yield and coupon. Moreover, higher duration indicates

higher interest rate risk associated with bond. It can be therefore said that duration is a

measure of sensitivity of bond price. The different types of duration involved in investments

in bonds are described below.

Macaulay Duration: The duration that is estimated as weighted average term to

maturity for regular cash flows of bond is termed as Macaulay Duration (Cornett and et.al.,

2011). In order to estimate Macaulay duration by dividing total present value of cash flow by

bond price as indicated in formula below.

estimating the same is provided underneath. Suppose a five year bond is issued at par value

of 1000 at coupon rate of 5%.

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[ ]

5

1 ( 1+ 0.05 ) 1000

50 + 5

0.05 ( 1+0.05 )

150 250 350 450 550 51000

( + + + + + )

1+ 0.05 ( 1+0.05 ) ( 1+0.05 ) ( 1+ 0.05 ) (1+ 0.05 ) ( 1+0.05 )5

2 3 4 5

Macaulay Duration=

Macaulay Duration=4.55 years

It is seen that present value of expected cash flows for bond is divided by current

bond price to estimate Macaulay duration. Moreover, the duration is estimated lesser than

time to maturity since it involves regular interest payment.

Modified Duration: In case of modified duration that the duration for bond is

estimated after accounting for changing interest rates. The formula shows change in duration

with every percentage of change in yield (Duration Basics, 2007). It is mostly used for

estimating duration for bonds with fluctuating interest rates. The modified duration is

estimated for bond with the help of following formula.

Effective Duration: The effective duration is calculated for bonds having embedded

options or redemption features. The methodology emphasizes on calculating duration through

construction of binomial trees.

It is seen that different kinds of duration are estimated in case of investment is bond

market. The bond duration is applied by investors since it is the measure of interest rate risk

associated with investment option. There are certain limitations of duration for bonds as

described below in detail.

The duration estimated is considered although supports investors decision making

process. It does not provide absolute measure of bond risk. It does not provide any

indication related to credit risk associated with bond.

It is also seen that duration of bond changes with variation in interest rates and as

time to maturity arises. The changing duration with each of coupon payments make

evaluation difficult. Henceforth, investors do not generate an idea of accurate

duration for bond while making investment decision.

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In order to overcome the limitations associated with evaluation of bond duration. It is

essential to adopt appropriate methods for valuing duration of bond. Moreover, investors

should possess clear idea of nature of bond in which investment is made so as to evaluate

risk-return profile.

Expected shortfall and Value at Risk are considered to be two important measures for

measuring risk-factor or volatility associated with the investments into consideration.

Expected shortfall and Value at Risk (VaR) as an estimate for risk helps in assessing the

market and credit risk associated with investment option or portfolio (Chen, Gerlach and Lu,

2012). Value at risk emphasizes on providing a single number for determining entire risk

associated with the portfolio. It estimates the degree of loss that investor may face at

particular confidence level. The chances of exceeding loss above value estimated as VAR are

considered to be within limits of confidence level. Suppose, 10-day VAR estimated for bank

at 99% confidence interval is 2 million. This indicates that there are only 1% chances that

losses exceed above 2 million in 10-day duration for banking unit. However, Value at risk

provides a single measure for risk assonated with investment option which makes it suitable

for estimating risk in different scenarios.

Expected shortfall on other hand takes into consideration the worst conditions than

Value at Risk. It measures the average loss that may happen in the worst (1-p) % cases where

p is the confidence level. It can be said that expected shortfall measures average of all losses

that are more than or equal to VaR. The expected short fall is also termed as conditional value

at risk or expected tail loss. The expected shortfall although helps in measuring risk above

value at risk, it does not indicates the worst scenarios. This is due to reason that the worst

scenarios in few of investments are loss of 100% or more. The expected shortfall is estimated

to measure risk above confidence level that is in q% cases.

Value at risk on one hand assumes that the risk of loss does not lie above confidence

level (Berkowitz, Christoffersen and Pelletier, 2011). However, the expected short fall tends

to estimate risk above the confidence level. The expected shortfalls accounts for risk in cases

chances for losses exceed confidence level. Henceforth, expected shortfall is considered to be

wider approach for estimating risk associated with the selected investment option. There are

certain advantages and disadvantages that are associated with expected shortfall. In case of

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extreme losses, investors tend to generate wide range of information from values estimated

through expected shortfall. Moreover, it is difficult to manipulate values estimated by

expected shortfall and is considered to be highly conservative approach. However, it is

difficult to estimate and explain expected shortfall as compare to Value at risk. Most of the

financial institutions, portfolio managers and investors take into consideration Value at risk

for measuring risk profile of its investment. Moreover, back testing is difficult in case of

expected shortfall as compare to Value at risk (Ortiz-Gracia and Oosterlee, 2014). Expected

shortfall and VAR both are considered as function of time horizon and confidence interval.

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The Value at risk on one hand assumes that loss does not exceed confidence interval.

However, expected loss is based on assumption that investor assumes risk more than

confidence level. This in turn indicates that expected shortfall is highly conservative in

nature. The financial markets regulators tend to make extensive use of value at risk so as to

measure the level of risk associated (Prignon and Smith, 2010). However, due to rising

situations of financial turmoil in past financial institutions started adopting expected shortfall

internally for measuring risk associated with investors. It can be said that with higher

confidence interval Value at risk is suitable option. However, for investment options with

lower confidence level the value of expected shortfall should be estimated for assessing risk.

.

QUESTION 5 VOLATILITY AND ITS MODELS

sufficient level of return. However, the value of investment continuously changes with

passage of time. It is due to change in prices of shares, bonds and so on that the overall value

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of investment changes. Volatility is regarded as measure of variation in prices of investment

option over a period of time (Engle and Sokalska, 2012). It measures the dispersion in return

generated by investing funds into specific security or assets. It tests the degree of variation in

return from mean or average return of the security into consideration. In order to measure

volatility the measures of dispersions such as standard deviation and variance are estimated.

Moreover, volatility indicates level of risk that is associated with investments into

consideration. It can be said that higher the volatile investment is more is the risk linked to

the same. The volatility therefore can be considered as measure of risk for an investment

option. The higher degree of volatility indicates high spread or dispersion in value of

investments. This in turn indicates that the price of security or other investment option is

expected to change significantly any time due to high uncertainty (Gatheral and et. al., 2012).

However, lower degree of volatility indicates that the value of investment does not change

significantly over a period of time. The volatility for shares or stocks is estimated by

measuring beta value. The value of beta indicates the volatility or risk associated with shares

into consideration. The volatility for financial instruments is of two types: Historical and

implied volatility. In case of historic volatility, historical prices are considered for measuring

the volatility or risk for investment option. However, in case of implied volatility current

market prices are considered to measure the risk. It is essential for investors to measure

volatility of investment options so as to test the level of risks. The two important approaches

to monitor the volatility of investments are described below in detail.

Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Model: The model emphasizes on

estimating volatility through exponentially weighted moving average of stock prices

(Korkmaz, n.d.). The formula mentioned below helps in modelling volatility as per EWMA

model.

to decrease exponentially when we move back through time. It can be said that weights in

case of EMWA model decreases exponentially when information is extracted from two

different points of time in past. The model helps in estimating volatility on basis of historical

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prices of the investment into consideration. It is one of the widely applicable models for

estimating volatility associated with different investment options.

Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model: It is the

model that is proposed by Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986). In order to estimate volatility

the model takes into consideration average variance rate of stock for long-run (Hansen,

Huang and Shek, 2012). The volatility in case of GARCH model can be measured with the

help of following formula.

The GARCH model is considered to be extension of EMWA model that takes into

consideration average long-run average variance, t 1 and Rn1 . The GARCH Model is

based on some of assumptions. The model assumes that future or tomorrows volatility

regresses itself since it is the function of todays volatility. Moreover, it assumes that future

variance is highly dependent on the most recent variance. Finally, the variances are expected

to change over a period of time. The model is considered to estimate different range of

parameters in the process of measuring overall volatility.

Two of models are considered to be highly efficient for estimating volatility

associated with the investments. The comparison between two models is detailed underneath.

The EWMA model is regarded as special case of GARCH (1, 1). On other hand,

GARCH (1, 1) is considered to be generalized case for EMWA model.

GARCH as a model to measure volatility takes into consideration the mean reversion.

However, EWMA does not emphasize on considering the concept of mean reversion.

GARCH model is proved to be highly accurate for estimating volatility by various

authors from time-to-time (Kissell, 2012). The high accuracy is a result of considering

mean reversion that is considered while measuring volatility as per the model.

In order to estimate volatility, EWMA assigns higher weight age to recent

observations rather than previous observations. However, GARCH model is based on

assumption that risk today is directly and significantly correlated to risk yesterday.

The two of volatility models are considered to be efficient in modelling volatility

associated with investment option. The models are widely used in different scenarios for

estimating volatility and support investment decisions.

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CONCLUSION

The report proposed herewith emphasizes on determining different ways to estimate

risk associated with invest options. It is seen that financial risk management is an essential

element in todays world. Investors if ignores risk-factor while making investment decision

may end up with huge loss. The report provided valuable insights for measuring risk for

different investment options available with inventors. It is suggested that while making

investment into shares valuation for the same should be conducted. Moreover, bonds

although are safer option should be evaluated before making investments. Investments in

derivatives need to be also evaluated deeply so as to earn sufficient level of return. The report

suggests that every investment should be evaluated on grounds of risk-return profile. The

option that maintains balance between risk & return should be selected for the investment

purpose.

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REFERENCES

Books and journals

Berkowitz, J., Christoffersen, P. and Pelletier, D. 2011. Evaluating value-at-risk models with

desk-level data. Management Science. 57(12). Pp. 2213-2227.

Chen, Q., Gerlach, R. and Lu, Z., 2012. Bayesian Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall

forecasting via the asymmetric Laplace distribution. Computational Statistics &

Data Analysis. 56(11). Pp. 3498-3516.

Cornett, M. M. and et.al., 2011. Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial

crisis. Journal of Financial Economics. 101(2). pp. 297-312.

Engle, R. F. and Sokalska, M. E., 2012. Forecasting intraday volatility in the us equity

market. multiplicative component garch. Journal of Financial Econometrics. 10(1).

Pp. 54-83.

Gatheral, J. and et. al., 2012. Asymptotics of implied volatility in local volatility models.

Mathematical Finance. 22(4). Pp. 591-620.

Grinblatt, M. 2001. An analytic solution for interest rate swap spreads. International Review

of Finance. 2(3). Pp. 113-149.

Hansen, P. R., Huang, Z. And Shek, H. H., 2012. Realized garch: a joint model for returns

and realized measures of volatility. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 27(6). Pp.

877-906.

Hong, G. And Sarkar, S., 2007. Equity Systematic Risk (Beta) and Its Determinants.

Contemporary Accounting Research. 24(2). Pp. 423-66.

Hull, C., 2015. Risk Management and Financial institutions. Courier Westford.

Hyman, J. and et. al., 2015. Coupon Effects on Corporate Bonds: Pricing, Empirical

Duration, and Spread Convexity. The Journal of Fixed Income. 24(3). Pp. 52-63.

Kissell, R., 2012. Intraday Volatility Models: Methods to Improve Real-Time Forecasts. The

Journal of Trading. 7(4). Pp. 27-34.

Klein, C. and Stellner, C., 2014. The systematic risk of corporate bonds: default risk, term

risk, and index choice. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management. 28(1). Pp. 29-

61.

Lee, C. F. and et. al., 2012. Security analysis, portfolio management, and financial

derivatives. World Scientific Books.

Milionis, A., 2011. A Conditional CAPM: Implications For Systematic Risk Estimation. The

Journal Of Risk Finance.12(4). Pp.306 314.

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Ortiz-Gracia, L. and Oosterlee, C. W., 2014. Efficient VaR and Expected Shortfall

computations for nonlinear portfolios within the delta-gamma approach. Applied

Mathematics and Computation. 244. Pp. 16-31.

Prignon, C. and Smith, D. R. 2010. The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by

commercial banks. Journal of Banking & Finance. 34(2). Pp. 362-377.

Pirie, S. And Smith, M., 2008. Stock Prices And Accounting Information: Evidence From

Malaysia. Asian Review Of Accounting.16(2).Pp.109133.

Online

Duration Basics, 2007. California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission. [pdf].

Available through: <http://www.treasurer.ca.gov/cdiac/publications/duration.pdf>.

[Accessed on 23rd March 2015].

Korkmaz, T., n.d., Using Evma And Garch Methods In Var Calculations:Application On Ise-

30 Index. [pdf]. Avaialbele through: <

http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~ehrbar/erc2002/pdf/P161.pdf>. [Accessed on 24th

March 2015].

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