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Financial Risk Management

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Table of Contents
Introduction................................................................................................................................1

Question 1 Share valuation........................................................................................................1

Question 2 Interest rate swaps....................................................................................................3

Question 3 Duration of Bond and its limitations.......................................................................4

Question 4 Expected shortfall and value at risk (VAR).............................................................6

Question 5 Volatility and its models..........................................................................................8

Conclusion................................................................................................................................10

References................................................................................................................................11

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INTRODUCTION
The financial valuation of investment opportunities and other assets is essential for
investors and organizations. In present scenario the risk-return profile of all investment
options is judged effectively so as to select the most suitable offerings. Moreover, different
kinds of investment options are available in the present era. These include investment in
shares, bonds, derivatives and other instruments. It is essential to estimate and assess the fair
value of investment options. The report proposed herewith provides an overview of manner
in which various investment options can be valued. It throws light on importance of financial
risk management. The report develops deep understanding of manner in which risk associated
with investment options is measured and supports investment decision making.

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QUESTION 1 SHARE VALUATION

Investors are expected to generate adequate return on investment made in shares. The
return on investment in shares is generated by two ways: annual dividends and capital
appreciation (Lee and et. al., 2012). In order to test the fair value of shares the expected
return for investment in shares can be estimate through Capital Assets Pricing Model
(CAPM) (Milionis, 2011). The expected return for investment option provided is measured
below.
E ( r )=Rf + (RmRf ) (CAPM model)
Where,
E(r) is expected rate of return
Rm is market rate

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Rf is risk-free rate
(Rm-Rf) is risk premium
is beta- value
E ( r )=Rf + ( RmRf )
Rf =52.8
( RmRf ) =7.4
=1.5
E ( r )=5.28+1.5 ( 7.45.28 )
E ( r )=5.28+1.5 ( 2.12 )
E ( r )=5.28+3.18
E ( r )=8.46
It is seen that investor needs to assume high level of risk by making investment into
shares of the organization provided. The investors assume high level of risk and expect
adequate level of return on the investment made (Hong and Sarkar, 2007). The expected
return for risky shares given in present case is measured at 8.46%. The percentage of return
generated through dividend recently paid is estimated below.
Dividend per share= 5.25 per share
Trading price of share= 60.25 per share
5.25
Return generated= ( 60.25 100 ) per share

Return generated=8.71 per share


It is seen that the company is paying sufficient amount of dividends on its share. At
Beta- value of 1.5 investors expects return of 8.46%. However, the dividend of 5.25 per
share is accounted for return of 8.71% per share. This in turn indicates that share is priced
appropriately. The investors have generated return through dividends slightly more than
expected return. Moreover, in case prices of shares go up there are chances of earning capital
appreciation. It can be said that, the investment in shares is capable of meeting shareholders
expectations. The company is paying sufficient level of return in the form of dividends for
high degree of risk assumed. The value of Alfa as per expected and actual return is estimated
below.
Alfa =Actual returnExpected return
Alfa=8.71 8.46 =0.25
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The positive value of 0.25% indicates slightly undervaluation of share price. The
positive value suggests undervaluation of stock. Moreover, the value close to zero indicates
lower degree of undervaluation (Pirie and Smith, 2008). It can be said that the company is
satisfying needs of its shareholders by declaring sufficient level of dividends. It can be said
that the dividend declared by the organization meets up shareholders expectation of return on
investment. In order to value stock price it is assumed that shareholders mostly generates
return in form of dividends. Henceforth, the actual return is estimated through return
generated in the form of dividends paid by the organization. The capital appreciation is
assumed to be neutral for affecting investment decisions. It can be said that shares are
appropriately priced for the organization into consideration. On the basis of valuation of
shares, it can be claimed that the shares are meant for the high risky investors. This implies
that investors who want to earn high level of return by assuming sufficient level of risk has an
option to make investment in the organization. The high level of beta is supported by high
level of return on shares in the form of dividend. This in turn indicates that are appropriately
valued or priced for trading in the market.

QUESTION 2 INTEREST RATE SWAPS

Interest rate Swaps provide an option to either convert fixed rate to floating rate or
vice versa. According to Grinblatt (2001), swaps involve exchange of cash flows as desired
by investors. Financial intermediaries or banking institutions provide quotes for facilitating
swaps between two parties. In present case the company has borrowed money for five year at
interest rate of 7%. The business unit desires to convert fixed rate liability into floating rate
liability. It can approach financial intermediary to enter into swap agreement. The quotes
declared by banking institution to facilitate swap agreement are presented in table
underneath.

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The table presented above indicates Bid and offer rate as declared by bank. It suggests
that bank is ready to enter into swap agreement for two years whereby it pays fixed rate of
6.03% and receive LIBOR. Besides, bank is ready to receive interest at 6.06% and pay
LIBOR. The difference between bid and offer rate represents spread that is earned by banking
unit (Hull, 2015). Swap rate represents average of bid and offer rate declared by the financial
institution.
The company wants to convert its fixed rate liability of 5 years at floating rate. As per
5-year quote for bid rate, the organization can enter into swap agreement. The business unit
can pay LIBOR to bank in exchange of fixed interest rate of 6.47%. The bank is ready to pay
fixed rate of 6.47% and receive LIBOR for five years. The agreement therefore can be
entered between the business unit and banking unit. As per the agreement banking unit will
pay fixed interest of 6.47% and receive LIBOR in return. However, the company has
borrowed funds at rate of 7%. The remaining portion of interest needs to be paid on part of
the organization. Henceforth, the business unit is able to exchange its fixed rate liability for
LIBOR + 0.53% (i.e. 7% - 6.47%). It is through swap agreement that the business unit is
able to pay interest at floating rate. As per the agreement the organization needs to pay
LIBOR to financial intermediary and receive interest at fixed rate of 6.47%. The fixed
interest received can be utilized for settling the part of interest on its outstanding debt
obligation. It is seen that swap agreement helps the organization to exchange its fixed
obligation in return of floating rate obligation. Many-a-times the business units feel
overburdened of its fixed interest obligation or risky due to floating rate of interests. This in
turn results in arising need for either converting fixed to floating or vice versa. Intermediaries

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play an important role by declaring bid and offer rate for various swap agreements. In present
case the organization is able to convert its fixed rate liability into floating rate on the basis of
quotes declared. The swap agreement provides the organization an opportunity to pay interest
at LIBOR + 0.53% in exchange of fixed rate of 7%. As per agreement the bank is going to
receive LIBOR rate and pays 6.47% of interest.

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QUESTION 3 DURATION OF BOND AND ITS LIMITATIONS

The financial resources can be acquired on part of government and organizations


through issue of bonds. It is the form of debt-fund that is issued by corporate and government
to meet financial required. It is perceived that bonds are safer option for investors since it
guarantees regular return (Klein and Stellner, 2014). Moreover, the initial amount paid to
purchase bonds is repaid on its maturity. The concept of duration of bond is considered to
highly important element for understanding investment in bonds.
Duration in context of bonds is time period in years taken to make repayment of
initial price and return guaranteed on bond. The risk associated with bonds is considered to be
higher for bonds with large duration. This is due to increasing price volatility with long
duration to maturity. Majorly, there are two types of bonds whose duration varies with its
nature. Two kinds of bonds and respective durations for same are described below in detail.
Zero-coupon bond: The zero-coupon bonds are also termed as discount or deep
discount bonds. These bonds do not involve payment of interests in form of coupons on
regular basis. In case of zero-coupon bonds investor tends to make purchase of bonds at price
lower than face value (Hyman and et. al., 2015). The amount however is recovered at face
value on date of maturity. Henceforth, duration in case of zero-coupon bond is equivalent to
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time till maturity for the bond. The entire amount of investment plus return on same is
recovered on date of maturity in case of zero-coupon bond. This in turn indicates that the
duration for zero-coupon bond is equal to total time required for maturity.
Vanilla Bond: The bond that pays regular interest payments in form of coupon
payments are termed as Vanilla Bond. As the name suggests vanilla bond does not involve
any kind of additional features. The regular interest payments are made at fixed rate of
interests and bond is redeemed at face value on maturity. The duration in case of vanilla bond
is always estimated to be lesser than time to maturity of bonds. It can be therefore said that
duration for recovering initial investment differs with kind of bonds.
In order to calculate duration for bonds different factors are taken into consideration.
These factors include bonds maturity, yield and coupon. Moreover, higher duration indicates
higher interest rate risk associated with bond. It can be therefore said that duration is a
measure of sensitivity of bond price. The different types of duration involved in investments
in bonds are described below.
Macaulay Duration: The duration that is estimated as weighted average term to
maturity for regular cash flows of bond is termed as Macaulay Duration (Cornett and et.al.,
2011). In order to estimate Macaulay duration by dividing total present value of cash flow by
bond price as indicated in formula below.

In order to generate deep understanding of Macaulay Duration, an example for


estimating the same is provided underneath. Suppose a five year bond is issued at par value
of 1000 at coupon rate of 5%.

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[ ]
5
1 ( 1+ 0.05 ) 1000
50 + 5
0.05 ( 1+0.05 )

150 250 350 450 550 51000
( + + + + + )
1+ 0.05 ( 1+0.05 ) ( 1+0.05 ) ( 1+ 0.05 ) (1+ 0.05 ) ( 1+0.05 )5
2 3 4 5
Macaulay Duration=
Macaulay Duration=4.55 years
It is seen that present value of expected cash flows for bond is divided by current
bond price to estimate Macaulay duration. Moreover, the duration is estimated lesser than
time to maturity since it involves regular interest payment.
Modified Duration: In case of modified duration that the duration for bond is
estimated after accounting for changing interest rates. The formula shows change in duration
with every percentage of change in yield (Duration Basics, 2007). It is mostly used for
estimating duration for bonds with fluctuating interest rates. The modified duration is
estimated for bond with the help of following formula.

Effective Duration: The effective duration is calculated for bonds having embedded
options or redemption features. The methodology emphasizes on calculating duration through
construction of binomial trees.
It is seen that different kinds of duration are estimated in case of investment is bond
market. The bond duration is applied by investors since it is the measure of interest rate risk
associated with investment option. There are certain limitations of duration for bonds as
described below in detail.
The duration estimated is considered although supports investors decision making
process. It does not provide absolute measure of bond risk. It does not provide any
indication related to credit risk associated with bond.
It is also seen that duration of bond changes with variation in interest rates and as
time to maturity arises. The changing duration with each of coupon payments make
evaluation difficult. Henceforth, investors do not generate an idea of accurate
duration for bond while making investment decision.

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In order to overcome the limitations associated with evaluation of bond duration. It is
essential to adopt appropriate methods for valuing duration of bond. Moreover, investors
should possess clear idea of nature of bond in which investment is made so as to evaluate
risk-return profile.

QUESTION 4 EXPECTED SHORTFALL AND VALUE AT RISK (VAR)


Expected shortfall and Value at Risk are considered to be two important measures for
measuring risk-factor or volatility associated with the investments into consideration.
Expected shortfall and Value at Risk (VaR) as an estimate for risk helps in assessing the
market and credit risk associated with investment option or portfolio (Chen, Gerlach and Lu,
2012). Value at risk emphasizes on providing a single number for determining entire risk
associated with the portfolio. It estimates the degree of loss that investor may face at
particular confidence level. The chances of exceeding loss above value estimated as VAR are
considered to be within limits of confidence level. Suppose, 10-day VAR estimated for bank
at 99% confidence interval is 2 million. This indicates that there are only 1% chances that
losses exceed above 2 million in 10-day duration for banking unit. However, Value at risk
provides a single measure for risk assonated with investment option which makes it suitable
for estimating risk in different scenarios.
Expected shortfall on other hand takes into consideration the worst conditions than
Value at Risk. It measures the average loss that may happen in the worst (1-p) % cases where
p is the confidence level. It can be said that expected shortfall measures average of all losses
that are more than or equal to VaR. The expected short fall is also termed as conditional value
at risk or expected tail loss. The expected shortfall although helps in measuring risk above
value at risk, it does not indicates the worst scenarios. This is due to reason that the worst
scenarios in few of investments are loss of 100% or more. The expected shortfall is estimated
to measure risk above confidence level that is in q% cases.
Value at risk on one hand assumes that the risk of loss does not lie above confidence
level (Berkowitz, Christoffersen and Pelletier, 2011). However, the expected short fall tends
to estimate risk above the confidence level. The expected shortfalls accounts for risk in cases
chances for losses exceed confidence level. Henceforth, expected shortfall is considered to be
wider approach for estimating risk associated with the selected investment option. There are
certain advantages and disadvantages that are associated with expected shortfall. In case of

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extreme losses, investors tend to generate wide range of information from values estimated
through expected shortfall. Moreover, it is difficult to manipulate values estimated by
expected shortfall and is considered to be highly conservative approach. However, it is
difficult to estimate and explain expected shortfall as compare to Value at risk. Most of the
financial institutions, portfolio managers and investors take into consideration Value at risk
for measuring risk profile of its investment. Moreover, back testing is difficult in case of
expected shortfall as compare to Value at risk (Ortiz-Gracia and Oosterlee, 2014). Expected
shortfall and VAR both are considered as function of time horizon and confidence interval.

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The Value at risk on one hand assumes that loss does not exceed confidence interval.
However, expected loss is based on assumption that investor assumes risk more than
confidence level. This in turn indicates that expected shortfall is highly conservative in
nature. The financial markets regulators tend to make extensive use of value at risk so as to
measure the level of risk associated (Prignon and Smith, 2010). However, due to rising
situations of financial turmoil in past financial institutions started adopting expected shortfall
internally for measuring risk associated with investors. It can be said that with higher
confidence interval Value at risk is suitable option. However, for investment options with
lower confidence level the value of expected shortfall should be estimated for assessing risk.
.
QUESTION 5 VOLATILITY AND ITS MODELS

The investors tend to make range of investments from time-to-time so as to generate


sufficient level of return. However, the value of investment continuously changes with
passage of time. It is due to change in prices of shares, bonds and so on that the overall value

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of investment changes. Volatility is regarded as measure of variation in prices of investment
option over a period of time (Engle and Sokalska, 2012). It measures the dispersion in return
generated by investing funds into specific security or assets. It tests the degree of variation in
return from mean or average return of the security into consideration. In order to measure
volatility the measures of dispersions such as standard deviation and variance are estimated.
Moreover, volatility indicates level of risk that is associated with investments into
consideration. It can be said that higher the volatile investment is more is the risk linked to
the same. The volatility therefore can be considered as measure of risk for an investment
option. The higher degree of volatility indicates high spread or dispersion in value of
investments. This in turn indicates that the price of security or other investment option is
expected to change significantly any time due to high uncertainty (Gatheral and et. al., 2012).
However, lower degree of volatility indicates that the value of investment does not change
significantly over a period of time. The volatility for shares or stocks is estimated by
measuring beta value. The value of beta indicates the volatility or risk associated with shares
into consideration. The volatility for financial instruments is of two types: Historical and
implied volatility. In case of historic volatility, historical prices are considered for measuring
the volatility or risk for investment option. However, in case of implied volatility current
market prices are considered to measure the risk. It is essential for investors to measure
volatility of investment options so as to test the level of risks. The two important approaches
to monitor the volatility of investments are described below in detail.
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Model: The model emphasizes on
estimating volatility through exponentially weighted moving average of stock prices
(Korkmaz, n.d.). The formula mentioned below helps in modelling volatility as per EWMA
model.

In case of EWMA model weights assigned to specific returns indicated by i tends


to decrease exponentially when we move back through time. It can be said that weights in
case of EMWA model decreases exponentially when information is extracted from two
different points of time in past. The model helps in estimating volatility on basis of historical

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prices of the investment into consideration. It is one of the widely applicable models for
estimating volatility associated with different investment options.
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model: It is the
model that is proposed by Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986). In order to estimate volatility
the model takes into consideration average variance rate of stock for long-run (Hansen,
Huang and Shek, 2012). The volatility in case of GARCH model can be measured with the
help of following formula.

The GARCH model is considered to be extension of EMWA model that takes into
consideration average long-run average variance, t 1 and Rn1 . The GARCH Model is
based on some of assumptions. The model assumes that future or tomorrows volatility
regresses itself since it is the function of todays volatility. Moreover, it assumes that future
variance is highly dependent on the most recent variance. Finally, the variances are expected
to change over a period of time. The model is considered to estimate different range of
parameters in the process of measuring overall volatility.
Two of models are considered to be highly efficient for estimating volatility
associated with the investments. The comparison between two models is detailed underneath.
The EWMA model is regarded as special case of GARCH (1, 1). On other hand,
GARCH (1, 1) is considered to be generalized case for EMWA model.
GARCH as a model to measure volatility takes into consideration the mean reversion.
However, EWMA does not emphasize on considering the concept of mean reversion.
GARCH model is proved to be highly accurate for estimating volatility by various
authors from time-to-time (Kissell, 2012). The high accuracy is a result of considering
mean reversion that is considered while measuring volatility as per the model.
In order to estimate volatility, EWMA assigns higher weight age to recent
observations rather than previous observations. However, GARCH model is based on
assumption that risk today is directly and significantly correlated to risk yesterday.
The two of volatility models are considered to be efficient in modelling volatility
associated with investment option. The models are widely used in different scenarios for
estimating volatility and support investment decisions.

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CONCLUSION
The report proposed herewith emphasizes on determining different ways to estimate
risk associated with invest options. It is seen that financial risk management is an essential
element in todays world. Investors if ignores risk-factor while making investment decision
may end up with huge loss. The report provided valuable insights for measuring risk for
different investment options available with inventors. It is suggested that while making
investment into shares valuation for the same should be conducted. Moreover, bonds
although are safer option should be evaluated before making investments. Investments in
derivatives need to be also evaluated deeply so as to earn sufficient level of return. The report
suggests that every investment should be evaluated on grounds of risk-return profile. The
option that maintains balance between risk & return should be selected for the investment
purpose.

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REFERENCES
Books and journals

Berkowitz, J., Christoffersen, P. and Pelletier, D. 2011. Evaluating value-at-risk models with
desk-level data. Management Science. 57(12). Pp. 2213-2227.

Chen, Q., Gerlach, R. and Lu, Z., 2012. Bayesian Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall
forecasting via the asymmetric Laplace distribution. Computational Statistics &
Data Analysis. 56(11). Pp. 3498-3516.

Cornett, M. M. and et.al., 2011. Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial
crisis. Journal of Financial Economics. 101(2). pp. 297-312.

Engle, R. F. and Sokalska, M. E., 2012. Forecasting intraday volatility in the us equity
market. multiplicative component garch. Journal of Financial Econometrics. 10(1).
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Gatheral, J. and et. al., 2012. Asymptotics of implied volatility in local volatility models.
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Grinblatt, M. 2001. An analytic solution for interest rate swap spreads. International Review
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Hansen, P. R., Huang, Z. And Shek, H. H., 2012. Realized garch: a joint model for returns
and realized measures of volatility. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 27(6). Pp.
877-906.

Hong, G. And Sarkar, S., 2007. Equity Systematic Risk (Beta) and Its Determinants.
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Hull, C., 2015. Risk Management and Financial institutions. Courier Westford.

Hyman, J. and et. al., 2015. Coupon Effects on Corporate Bonds: Pricing, Empirical
Duration, and Spread Convexity. The Journal of Fixed Income. 24(3). Pp. 52-63.

Kissell, R., 2012. Intraday Volatility Models: Methods to Improve Real-Time Forecasts. The
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Klein, C. and Stellner, C., 2014. The systematic risk of corporate bonds: default risk, term
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Milionis, A., 2011. A Conditional CAPM: Implications For Systematic Risk Estimation. The
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Ortiz-Gracia, L. and Oosterlee, C. W., 2014. Efficient VaR and Expected Shortfall
computations for nonlinear portfolios within the delta-gamma approach. Applied
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Prignon, C. and Smith, D. R. 2010. The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by
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Pirie, S. And Smith, M., 2008. Stock Prices And Accounting Information: Evidence From
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Online

Duration Basics, 2007. California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission. [pdf].
Available through: <http://www.treasurer.ca.gov/cdiac/publications/duration.pdf>.
[Accessed on 23rd March 2015].

Korkmaz, T., n.d., Using Evma And Garch Methods In Var Calculations:Application On Ise-
30 Index. [pdf]. Avaialbele through: <
http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~ehrbar/erc2002/pdf/P161.pdf>. [Accessed on 24th
March 2015].

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