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# You have 55 minutes to finish this practical Test.

## It consists of a questionnaire with 9 multiple choice questions.

Questions with a wrong answer will be negatively graded with -0.25 points.

You have to solve the questionnaire from an Excel file. You must download it and save
it in the computer. It corresponds to a data series representing the monthly turnover of a
touristic firm covering the years 2000-2011. More specifically the sample period goes
from January 2000 until August 2010, whereas the beyond sample period comprises the
rest of the months, September 2010-August 2011.

Below you have some values you may need to work out the results:

## Z /2; 5% = 1.96 X25%; 11 = 19.68 X25%; 3 = 7.81 X25%; 1 = 3.84

Good luck!!!!
B0 0.913
B1 372.004
DMA
Year Month t Yt LT MA MA'
2000 January 1 379.8642857
February 2 379.4357143
March 3 379.5128571
April 4 374.8714286
May 5 374.7257143
June 6 372.4328571
July 7 373.4957143
August 8 379.86
September 9 383.5414286
October 10 379.7785714
November 11 376.0285714
December 12 377.5457143
2001 January 13 382.0414286
February 14 377.8328571
March 15 377.2285714
April 16 377.16
May 17 377.1985714
June 18 375.81
July 19 377.4214286
August 20 379.86
September 21 384.7071429
October 22 386.3657143
November 23 386.8757143
December 24 391.8471429
2002 January 25 396.7371429
February 26 394.6414286
March 27 395.1
April 28 397.4142857
May 29 396.3942857
June 30 395.6485714
July 31 399.2571429
August 32 402.5357143
September 33 404.2757143
October 34 403.9114286
November 35 404.9571429
December 36 408.4242857
2003 January 37 413.1728571
February 38 415.2
March 39 418.4442857
April 40 419.2628571
May 41 417.3214286
June 42 416.4642857
July 43 415.7185714
August 44 418.4957143
September 45 420.5228571
October 46 420.1757143
November 47 422.5885714
December 48 424.5385714
2004 January 49 428.7728571
February 50 428.2928571
March 51 428.2628571
April 52 431.1685714
May 53 433.6885714
June 54 431.5971429
July 55 431.7342857
August 56 434.2928571
September 57 435.1842857
October 58 434.0314286
November 59 433.77
December 60 435.4285714
2005 January 61 436.0842857
February 62 433.1785714
March 63 431.8928571
April 64 431.0957143
May 65 431.3357143
June 66 429.96
July 67 429.5742857
August 68 431.2971429
September 69 438.0042857
October 70 436.7785714
November 71 438.4028571
December 72 441.1714286
2006 January 73 442.4442857
February 74 438.54
March 75 438.2485714
April 76 438.6642857
May 77 438.9085714
June 78 438.5785714
July 79 440.1428571
August 80 441.4842857
September 81 442.3071429
October 82 441.4285714
November 83 440.4
December 84 443.3614286
2007 January 85 445.9457143
February 86 445.5728571
March 87 447.6085714
April 88 448.3028571
May 89 447.1885714
June 90 444.5871429
July 91 444.2571429
August 92 445.2385714
September 93 447.4242857
October 94 448.2557143
November 95 449.6271429
December 96 452.7428571
2008 January 97 454.02
February 98 451.8942857
March 99 451.6971429
April 100 452.9357143
May 101 451.9885714
June 102 451.5642857
July 103 453.8485714
August 104 456.2785714
September 105 459.2185714
October 106 460.3242857
November 107 461.1
December 108 465.7628571
2009 January 109 468.39
February 110 469.4357143
March 111 472.2214286
April 112 473.2157143
May 113 475.6542857
June 114 476.6442857
July 115 479.2542857
August 116 480.8485714
September 117 483.0685714
October 118 484.1785714
November 119 485.4214286
December 120 488.9142857
2010 January 121 490.2471429
February 122 490.1228571
March 123 492.2571429
April 124 497.04
May 125 498.8657143 494.5714286
June 126 499.8728571 497.0089286
July 127 501.5314286 499.3275
August 128 503.4171429 500.9217857 497.9574107
September 129 505.4957143 489.779
October 130 506.2328571 490.692
November 131 506.82 491.605
December 132 509.3014286 492.518
2011 January 133 511.5642857 493.431
February 134 511.11 494.344
March 135 512.6614286 495.257
April 136 512.8885714 496.170
May 137 514.05 497.083
June 138 514.7571429 497.996
July 139 517.3457143 498.909
August 140 520.8857143 499.822
141
hly turnover of a
e period goes
d comprises the

1 X25%; 1 = 3.84

## K=4 =0.3 = 0.2 = 0.1

HES
T B Forecast T B Forecast
379.8642857 0
379.7357143 -0.02571429 379.8642857
379.6508571 -0.03754286 379.71
378.1907486 -0.322056 379.6133143
376.9257991 -0.5106347 377.8686926
375.2204722 -0.74957313 376.4151644
374.1783436 -0.80808422 374.4708991
375.3171816 -0.41869979 373.3702594
377.4913658 0.09987702 374.8984818
378.2474414 0.231116735 377.5912429
377.7435621 0.08411753 378.4785582
377.7430901 0.067199607 377.8276797
379.0796313 0.321067941 377.8102897
378.9303466 0.226997413 379.4006993
378.5787123 0.111271056 379.1573441
378.2309883 0.019472057 378.6899833
377.9348937 -0.04364128 378.2504604
377.2668767 -0.16851643 377.8912524
377.1952808 -0.14913233 377.0983603
377.8903039 0.019698767 377.0461484
379.9491447 0.427527179 377.9100027
382.1733846 0.786869722 380.3766719
384.1348923 1.021797318 382.9602543
387.1638256 1.423224511 385.1566896
391.0320779 1.912230076 388.5870501
393.4534442 2.014057309 392.944308
395.357251 1.99200722 395.4675015
397.3687665 1.995908867 397.3492583
398.4735585 1.817685488 399.3646754
398.8984422 1.539125136 400.291244
400.08344 1.468299667 400.4375673
401.846932 1.527338145 401.5517397
403.6447034 1.58142479 403.3742702
404.8317183 1.502542812 405.2261282
405.9211256 1.419915716 406.3342611
407.6660147 1.484910377 407.3410414
410.3575047 1.726226303 409.150925
413.0186117 1.913202444 412.083731
415.9855556 2.123950739 414.9318141
418.4555116 2.193151787 418.1095063
419.6504929 1.993517699 420.6486634
420.0900932 1.682734204 421.6440106
419.9565506 1.319478848 421.7728274
420.4419349 1.15265994 421.2760294
421.2730735 1.088355679 421.5945948
421.7057147 0.957212784 422.3614292
422.6406207 0.952751419 422.6629275
423.8769319 1.009463379 423.5933721
426.0523338 1.24265109 424.8863953
427.5943466 1.302523423 427.2949849
428.7066662 1.264482651 428.89687
430.3303756 1.336328008 429.9711488
432.2732639 1.457640078 431.6667036
433.0907757 1.329614408 433.730904
433.6145588 1.168448146 434.4203901
434.635962 1.139039159 434.7830069
435.5977865 1.103596233 435.7750011
435.9003965 0.943398983 436.7013827
435.9216568 0.758971254 436.8437955
436.3050111 0.683847854 436.6806281
436.717487 0.62957346 436.9888589
436.0965137 0.37946412 437.3470604
435.1010416 0.104476877 436.4759779
433.9725772 -0.14211138 435.2055185
433.0820404 -0.29179647 433.8304659
431.9411707 -0.46161111 432.7902439
430.9079775 -0.57592754 431.4795596
430.6215778 -0.51802197 430.3320499
432.4737748 -0.04397817 430.1035558
433.7344291 0.216948315 432.4297966
435.2868213 0.4840371 433.9513774
437.3910295 0.80807131 435.7708584
439.4726563 1.062782407 438.1991008
439.9368071 0.943056087 440.5354387
440.0904756 0.785178584 440.8798631
440.2122437 0.652496474 440.8756542
440.2778895 0.535126351 440.8647401
440.1426825 0.401059684 440.8130159
440.4234767 0.377006579 440.5437422
441.005624 0.418034725 440.8004833
441.688704 0.471043772 441.4236587
441.9403949 0.427173193 442.1597477
441.7772976 0.309119111 442.367568
442.4689203 0.385619821 442.0864167
443.7818924 0.571090271 442.8545401
444.718945 0.644282742 444.3529826
446.0368308 0.779003364 445.3632277
447.2619411 0.86822474 446.8158342
447.8476875 0.811729076 448.1301658
447.4377345 0.567392653 448.6594166
446.8807318 0.342513597 448.0051271
446.6278432 0.223433157 447.2232454
447.0231792 0.257813716 446.8512764
447.5734093 0.316296999 447.2809929
448.4109373 0.420543191 447.8897063
450.0048935 0.655225792 448.8314805
451.6680835 0.856818636 450.6601193
452.3357172 0.818981651 452.5249021
452.7174321 0.731528292 453.1546989
453.2949865 0.700733528 453.4489603
453.3935755 0.580304611 453.9957201
453.2510018 0.435728949 453.9738801
453.7352829 0.445439392 453.6867307
454.8100771 0.571310338 454.1807223
456.5325426 0.80154138 455.3813874
458.2311445 0.980953484 457.334084
459.7784686 1.094227605 459.212098
462.3397445 1.387637262 460.8726962
465.1261672 1.667394357 463.7273817
467.5862074 1.82592352 466.7935616
470.2549202 1.99448138 469.4121309
472.5392954 2.052460141 472.2494016
474.9105146 2.116211952 474.5917555
476.9119943 2.093265502 477.0267265
479.0799676 2.108207057 479.0052598
481.0862937 2.087830865 481.1881746
483.1424586 2.081497679 483.1741245
484.9103408 2.018774588 485.2239563
486.4768094 1.928313377 486.9291154
488.5578716 1.958863156 488.4051227
490.4358572 1.94268764 490.5167348
491.7018385 1.807346378 492.3785448
493.1335723 1.732223854 493.5091849
495.5180573 1.862676085 494.8657962
497.8262277 1.951774939 497.3807334
499.806459 1.957466212 499.7780026
501.6941762 1.943516415 501.7639252 ERRORS
503.8861607 1.97625 503.5715277 1.93028343 503.6376926 LT
505.862 505.502 15.717
507.839 507.432 15.541
509.815 509.362 15.215
511.791 511.293 16.784
513.767 513.223 18.133
515.744 515.153 16.766
517.720 517.084 17.405
519.696 519.014 16.719
521.672 520.944 16.967
523.649 522.874 16.761
525.625 524.805 18.437
527.601 526.735 21.064
SQUARED ERRORS MAPE
DMA HES LT DMA HES LT DMA
-0.367 -0.006 247.018 0.134 0.000 0.031 0.001
-1.606 -1.199 241.521 2.579 1.438 0.031 0.003
-2.995 -2.542 231.500 8.969 6.464 0.030 0.006
-2.490 -1.991 281.688 6.199 3.965 0.033 0.005
-2.203 -1.659 328.822 4.854 2.751 0.035 0.004
-4.634 -4.043 281.105 21.471 16.348 0.033 0.009
-5.058 -4.422 302.921 25.588 19.555 0.034 0.010
-6.808 -6.125 279.518 46.343 37.518 0.033 0.013
-7.622 -6.894 287.887 58.101 47.528 0.033 0.015
-8.892 -8.117 280.945 79.059 65.889 0.033 0.017
-8.279 -7.459 339.923 68.545 55.636 0.036 0.016
-6.715 -5.849 443.693 45.097 34.213 0.040 0.013

MAPE
HES
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.004
0.003
0.008
0.009
0.012
0.013
0.016
0.014
0.011

0.82%