The US Retail Crisis

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The US Retail Crisis

Posted on July 18, 2017 by Lambert Strether
By Silvia Merler, who joined Bruegel as Affiliate Fellow at Bruegel in August 2013. Her main
research interests include international macro and financial economics, central banking and
EU institutions and policy making. Originally published at Breugel.
The New York Times has some interesting data visualisation about the growth of e-commerce jobs
and the decline of retail sectors employment (Figure 1). Online shopping accounts for only 8.4 percent
of all retail sales in the United States, but it has had an outsize effect on the retail workforce. The
Financial Times has a graphical review of the recent stock market sell-off on retail department
stores, spurred by mounting concerns about the effects of online competition.
Figure 1
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/07/us-retail-crisis.html 1/19
A related question would be what the implications are, not only for retailers and retail-property
companies, but also for the financial firms that have given them money, from banks to life-insurance
companies. The Economist argues that total amount of capital, both debt and equity, supporting
American retailing (excluding Amazon) now exceeds $2.5trn. The hundreds of thousands of jobs
created by new online firms have not absorbed the job losses at traditional retailers. At the same time,
the new jobs are concentrated in a handful of large cities and tech hubs (Figure 2 from NYT).
Examining property data from CBRE brokerage, The Economist argues that some cities with fewer
shops per person, such as New York and Seattle, may fare better, but that few parts of the country will
be untouched.
Figure 2
The Economist has calculated what might happen to retailing workers (excluding those who work in
car and fuel sales), under various assumptions about the growth of e-commerce. Assuming that
employment in stores rises or falls with changes in those stores sales, and that labour productivity
improves at historical rates, retailing jobs could shrink by 12%, or 1.5m jobs, by 2022. Under the most
adverse scenario, employment could fall by 17% (figure 3 below).
Figure 3
Paul Krugman wonders why arent promises to save service jobs as much a staple of political
posturing as promises to save mining and manufacturing jobs? One answer might be that mines and
factories sometimes act as anchors of local economies, so that their closing can devastate a
community in a way shutting a retail outlet wont. A different reason mining and manufacturing have
become political footballs, while services havent, involves the need for villains. Demagogues can tell
coal miners that liberals took away their jobs with environmental regulations. They can tell industrial
workers that their jobs were taken away by nasty foreigners. By contrast, its really hard to blame
either liberals or foreigners for, say, the decline of retail service jobs. Finally, its hard to escape the
sense that manufacturing and especially mining get special consideration because their workers are a
lot more likely to be male and significantly whiter than the workforce as a whole. As for what can be
done to stop service-sector job cuts, Krugman thinks that there is not much. While we cant stop job
losses from happening, we can limit the human damage when they do happen, by guaranteeing
health care and adequate retirement income for all, providing aid to the newly unemployed and acting
to keep the overall economy strong.
Dean Baker at CEPR argues that Paul Krugman is wrong on retail jobs, and the reason why they are
not salient is that they are not very good jobs. Jobs in mining and manufacturing tend to offer higher
pay and are far more likely to come with health care and pension benefits than retail jobs. A worker
who loses a job in these sectors is unlikely to find a comparable job elsewhere. In retail, the odds are
that a person who loses a job will be able to find one with similar pay and benefits. In mining the
average weekly wage is $1,450, in manufacturing it is $1,070, by comparison in retail it is just $555.
This difference in job quality is apparent in the difference in separation rates by industry: it was 2.4
percent for the most recent month in manufacturing and 4.7 percent in retail, almost twice as high.
Baker argues that since only a small segment of the workforce is going to be employed in
manufacturing regardless of what we do on trade, we should be focused on making retail and other
service sector jobs good jobs. For Baker, the number one item on the agenda should be a concern
with the Feds rates hikes, which would slow the economy and reduce the rate of job creation.
Noah Smith argues that the retail apocalypse could actually lead to a suburban renaissance. Modern
U.S. cities, especially the suburbs, are built around retail stores. If those stores evaporate into cloud
servers, huge gaping holes will open up in the economic landscape of almost every suburb and town
in the U.S.. The decline of physical retail will thus force the U.S. to rethink its entire idea of what a city
is for. Why do people live near each other, if not to shop at the same places? One reason is to go out
to eat. Another reason for people to cluster is to take advantage of schools, day-care facilities,
hospitals and other local services. Rebuilding the suburbs will mean a lot of spending at the local and
state level. Working-class Americans need jobs, and this sort of epic construction project would create
a lot of them. If the retail apocalypse leads to a suburban renaissance, maybe its something to be
relished rather than feared.
0 0 6 0 0
This entry was posted in Globalization, Guest Post, Technology and innovation, The destruction of the
middle class on July 18, 2017 by Lambert Strether.
SUBSCRIBE TO POST COMMENTS 37 COMMENTS
kimyo
July 18, 2017 at 5:52 am
50% Of American Workers Make Less Than $28,031 A Year
blaming e-commerce for the decline in retail sales is convenient, but totally inaccurate. such an effort
is similar to framing the taxation debate as rich people pay too little / poor people extract too much
whilst ignoring that many fortune 500 corporations pay NO tax (see page 21 for a list of 43
Corporations Paying No Income Tax in 2012)
the middle class has been decimated by a joint democratic/republican effort. THAT is why retail is
dying.
Reply
Bill Smith
July 18, 2017 at 6:35 am
Figure 1 is confusing. Department stores lost 448k jobs? But retail jobs went up by 645k + 841k? Plus
e commerce went up $178k? Net gain in jobs?
Just not as evenly spread out as it used to be.
id be interested to see what the sales per employee was retail versus e commerce.
Reply
Livius Drusus
July 18, 2017 at 6:59 am

Why not just have the government hire the unemployed, including those left jobless by the collapse of
retail? There is plenty of work to do. Our infrastructure is decaying and many poor states and
municipalities cannot maintain anything like adequate services in a number of important areas.
Perhaps the biggest mistake that Obama made was making health care reform the big goal of his
administration. Job creation and saving the states and municipalities should have been priority
number one but instead we got a stimulus package that was overloaded with tax cut and Rube
Goldberg-syle health care reform.
Even if we didnt get a full-blown job guarantee Obama should at least have pushed for reinstating
Nixons revenue sharing program to help keep our states and local governments healthy and
spending money and hiring people. One benefit that might come from such a program would be the
reversal of the decay of our small towns and rural areas. Increasingly huge, overcrowded cities dont
sound very appealing. They strike me as more reminiscent of a developing country than a wealthy
industrialized one.
The liberalism that comes out of the big cities tends to be of the pity/charity variety that reflects the
massive inequality of the large cities. This is the direct opposite of the New Deal tradition that sought
to create a dignified and independent existence for working people which of course means public job
creation if necessary to help people regain their self-worth, confidence and social connections to
others in the community.
Reply
Arizona Slim
July 18, 2017 at 7:47 am
Big city liberalism also comes with a heavy dose of identity politics.
Reply
SpringTexan
July 18, 2017 at 9:56 am
Yes. Obama was happy to go along with sequestration, to be not-serious about infrastructure
reconstruction, all the things where government could have created jobs that would have been
worth doing and would improve things for everyone, were things he wasnt willing to do.
Public job creation!! So obvious, so helpful, and so undone!
Reply
pespi
July 18, 2017 at 12:11 pm
Beyond that, the physical retail crash coupled with the commercial real estate crash will leave a ton
of jobless people and a ton of empty buildings.
Porque no transform those buildings into free housing and co-operative business?
Reply
Anon
July 18, 2017 at 1:46 pm
Because they are owned by private, not public, interests. And the land, if not the buildings, are
still quite valuable.
Reply
Norm
July 18, 2017 at 12:46 pm
A lot of people prefer to live in concentrated urban centers and a lot of people dont. I split most
weeks between very-urban Chicago and kind-of-rural Indiana. I like both. As long as one has
enough money for basics, either life style can be alright.
While its always a good thing to emphasize that somehow the vast unused personal and physical
capacities of the US should be put to better use, the focus should be on more than the sorely
needed infrastructure problems.
More people should be trained and put to work in schools. Likewise with health care. Likewise with
the so-called justice system. (Thered be a lot more real democracy here if people who are
regularly cheated had access to a functioning court system that is currently has cost barriers that
keep it way beyond the reach of most people.)
Reply
lyman alpha blob

July 18, 2017 at 8:20 am
Smith is being overly sanguine the loss of lots of jobs rarely leads to any kind of renaissance. How
are you going to build schools for example when the tax base is depleted?
I live in a city now considered a foodie mecca. That and high end condo building are the two
burgeoning industries. The downtown is much nicer than it was a couple decades ago but the new
restaurants are high end and have come to the city along with wide scale gentrification which has
caused the area to be unaffordable for many. And a group of several restaurants is often owned by
the same person, who begins to acquire more as their business increases. These restaurant owners
then fight against any increase in the minimum wage. Sound familiar? Different industry, same
neoliberal BS.
Restaurant workers are still service industry jobs and currently arent much better than retail jobs. The
pay is somewhat better but there are generally zero benefits. I do not believe we can have a
successful economy with service jobs everywhere and not much else. We cant all cant all cut each
others hair.
Reply
tegnost
July 18, 2017 at 8:41 am
Yes, Ive got an issue with this part of the paraphrase Rebuilding the suburbs will mean a lot of
spending at the local and state level. Working-class Americans need jobs, and this sort of epic
construction project would create a lot of them. If the retail apocalypse leads to a suburban
renaissance, maybe its something to be relished rather than fearedLocal and state spending is
restricted as fed spending is not as states have to balance their budgets while feds an create
funds. This policy prescription looks alot like public money financing private profit under the
careworn guise of job creation, and this leaves aside that the majority of the suburbs are a
wasteland of cheaply made mcmansions and the like. Funny these days to hear folks from the big
tech hubs trying to make their dystopia into something that looks viable, while these same cities
face a plague of homelessness. Yes youve lost your means of earning in the retail apocalypse,
but your kids will get jobs in as yet unknown fields because rainbows and unicorns so suck it up
and find a place to bathe and go to the bathroom, for the brave new world is here.
Reply
Jporter
July 18, 2017 at 9:24 am
I also have trouble imagining Smiths vision of a renaissance. I live in a well-off Fairfield county
suburb of New York, and 8 years into the economic recovery the town is still littered with empty
store fronts. If these properties havent rented by now, will they ever? As these properties remain
empty their values will eventual fall and along with them the towns tax base. This will put more
upward pressure on residential property taxes, making these properties less attractive and so on.
Should this type of spiral begin, its very unlikely there will be funding available for a suburban
renaissance.
Reply
SpringTexan
July 18, 2017 at 9:58 am
Theres lots that could be done, we need more libraries and cultural activities and gyms and
gathering places (as well as sadly more facilities to help the homeless and drug addicts,
housing and safe injection sites and places for counselling and gatherings), but theres not a
chance in hell at this point that government will help finance them. Definitely COULD be done,
but we need democratic socialism for that . . .
Reply
Sutter Cane
July 18, 2017 at 9:29 am
I live in a city now considered a foodie mecca. That and high end condo building are the two
burgeoning industries.
Same here. And here, the primary industry employing the people who live in these luxury condos
and eat at these high-priced restaurants is the tech sector. From previous housing busts, condos
are the first to drop, and they drop significantly. We have a lot of condos. I view the whole thing as
a house of cards a tech downturn will mean a condo bust, and the fancy restaurants and their
employess will be collateral damage. No sign of that yet, however. I am amazed at how things just
keep truckin along.
Reply
Arizona Slim
July 18, 2017 at 1:09 pm
And Ill go ya one better. Because I live in Tucson, a UNESCO World Center of Gastronomy.
Yes, that draws some foodie tourists to the Old Pueblo, but the reality is that very few of us
residents can afford to eat out that much.
As mentioned previously, Im a member of a coworking space in Downtown Tucson, where
many of the hot -n- trendy restaurants are. Do we patronize those places? Ehhh, not so much.
Most of us brown-bag our lunchies. If we go out, its to the nearby deli (Johnny Gibsons) or we
order something from (gasp! a chain) Jimmy Johns.
Reply
lyman alpha blob

July 18, 2017 at 3:38 pm
We dont even have the benefit of a tech sector, not locally at least. Its other cities tech sectors
and finance jobs that are largely driving the current boom and the dining and property buying is
being done by people from away. Meanwhile the citys traditional working waterfront (waterfront
businesses by local ordinance had to be fishing industry-related) has been slowly dying, with
developers salivating over the waterfront property that might soon be available for hotels and
high rise condos.
Reply
John Wright
July 18, 2017 at 10:24 am
Yes, I believe Smith is doing an optimistic lemons to lemonaide transform,
He writes for Bloomberg and one can believe Bloomberg would like this optimistic view.
See http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.fr/ for his blog postings.
I characterize him as pro-business, not pro-worker..
What happened to all the empty rust-belt factories in the USA?
Where was their renaissance?
Maybe they should have put up Retail space for rent signs and wait for the Retail renaissance to
happen.
Smiths name is showing up more often it seems, I wonder if he is being positioned to be part of a
new generation of blogging economists who will be quoted as trusted authorities in the press.
Reply
Christ on a bike
July 18, 2017 at 10:34 am
Yeah, I dont see this renaissance at all. For my last 30 years Ive seen moldering ghost malls
built and never filled; retail space emptied since 2008 and now selling mattresses, fireworks,
Halloween doodads or nothing at all; main streets of Midwestern small towns that on Saturday
night or Monday morning are dark and lifeless as cemeteries. Mr. Smith travels in different circles.
Reply
Arizona Slim
July 18, 2017 at 1:13 pm
Which is as good an excuse as any to share three of my favorite ruin p0rn YouTube channels:
Dan Bells Dead Mall Series:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLNz4Un92pGNxQ9vNgmnCx7dwchPJGJ3IQ
Exploring with Josh:
https://www.youtube.com/user/theartofrealitycrew
Retail Archaeology:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCR2LNeZSqINp0WTd_eWCIGg
Reply
Jeremy Grimm
July 18, 2017 at 8:46 am
Dont rents have anything to do with the decline in retail? Wherever I look in my local area I see
places for lease that only recently had tenants hanging on. I dont believe housing rents are the only
rents that may be reaching for a break point.
Reply
tegnost
July 18, 2017 at 9:07 am
This too. QE was/is a massive giveaway to rentiers at all strata, driving up asset prices which
naturally also drove up rents, while ignoring the elephant in the room which was not enough money
to pay the bills, back in 07 due largely to $4/gal gas so now we have wealthy californians behind
the 40% cash buys of housing so their kids can escape the meatgrinder, as well as these same
having college paid for rather than having student loans which can never be repaid and create an
exploitable underclass. Thanks Ben.
Reply
Arizona Slim
July 18, 2017 at 1:15 pm
Theres a lot of talk about the revival of Downtown Tucson.
Well, let me take you on a little tour of Congress Street. West of 6th Avenue, between 6th and
Scott Avenue, Ive counted eight empty storefronts. In one block. Between Scott and Stone
Avenue, theres a storefront that has been vacant for nearly three years.
Reply
jrs
July 18, 2017 at 1:19 pm
yes, I figure it has to have something to do with it, many a retail business fails largely on the fact
that they cant make rent and be profitable.
Reply
Quanka
July 18, 2017 at 8:47 am
I cant help but think how much Krugman and Smith are living in fantasy land.
1) Its real convenient for Krugman to say how great it would be for universal health care now, isnt it?
Gee shucks, those evil meeny Rs.
2) Then Noah Smith must have snorted some of Purdues finest thinking that you will have a suburban
renaissance when we can hardly get the Govt to spend money and anything besides machines of
war. These are the same people HRC went after and the DNC targeted in Georgia why would they
change their minds and support such a renaissance now?
At least Baker seems to have found some, you know, actual evidence, and is trying to make an
argument from it. Is it any wonder we are in the situation we are in today when this an example of
what we get from our thought leaders? Good grief charlie brown.
Reply
Editor of the Fabius Maximus website

July 18, 2017 at 9:30 am
Quanka,
That was my reaction also (you said it better).
Although this by Baker seems unrealistic, imo: we should be focused on making retail and other
service sector jobs good jobs. Most retail jobs are low productivity. High productivity jobs can be
made better by forcing employers to share the bounty as unions did for manufacturing, mining,
etc. I suspect it can be done to low productivity jobs, but to a lesser extent.
His focus on economic growth (if combined with progressive taxation) seem like stronger cards to
play.
Reply
Quite Likely
July 18, 2017 at 9:33 am
The Dean Baker explanation seems pretty spot on to me. People dont really miss manufacturing jobs,
they miss unions. Those mining and manufacturing jobs formed the core of a prosperous middle
class, and people are angry and sad that they and it have now disappeared. Service sector jobs are
low paid employment of last resort for people who cant find anything else.
Reply
Sutter Cane
July 18, 2017 at 9:49 am
Yes, and now even the last resort jobs are being taken away. No good jobs, no shitty jobs when
you cant find a good job, and no safety net, either.
Reply
Michael Fiorillo
July 18, 2017 at 10:25 am
Indeed, mining and manufacturing/industrial jobs are grueling, noisy, dusty, often toxic.
Doing repetitive assembly work in an auto plant, for example, is only a good job if youre
represented by the UAW, which at least provides health insurance when the job finally succeeds in
destroying your body.
Back in the day, before the struggles of the CIO industrial unions (UAW, USW, UE, etc.) these jobs
were looked down upon as meat grinders. With the partial exception of the skilled trades
electricians, millwrights, tool and die makers needed to make the factory run, what made them
desirable were the wages and benefits won through struggle by the unions.
For the overwhelming majority of working people, work sucks, and is an expedient. Only a
widespread flowering of unionization in the service sector can hope to make those good jobs, as
well. Perhaps then we could start talking about that Renaissance the author mentions, which at
the moment isnt even a mirage.
Reply
Mark Anderlik
July 18, 2017 at 11:44 am
Michael you hit the proverbial nail on the head. I find it amusing (but not funny -if you know what
I mean) when right-wing politicians in my neck of the woods lament the loss of high-paying,
good jobs in mining, coal energy production, timber and paper, etc. These are the same who cry
for the destruction of unions as bad for business. I and others point out that without unions
these jobs would still be the dangerous low pay jobs without benefits they were 100 years ago.
Furthermore, I believe it is the mission of the labor movement to match that same struggle to
make the retail, hospitality and low-wage health care jobs of today into the good jobs of
tomorrow. About 40% of employment in my hometown is in these bad job sectors. And rising.
There is an additional intersection for this struggle too. And that is women make up the huge
majority of workers in these sectors, with people of color and youth over-represented as well.
I believe that organizing in these job sectors a new workers movement is emerging to revive
the labor movement.
Reply
Michael Fiorillo
July 18, 2017 at 3:18 pm
I pray you are right, Mark.
Im a public school teacher and AFT member, and from my vantage point, things are very
depressing: widespread privatization of the schools, demoralized/uninformed-apathetic
teachers, and a union misleadership complicit in its own demise.
Reply
Larry
July 18, 2017 at 11:21 am
Not for nothing, but Yves has pointed out how fragile these massive distribution networks would be
to work stoppages. Amazon and Wal-Mart have been very successful at thwarting Union drives,
but perhaps the lessons of the Market Basket workers could serve as a lesson for how to take back
labors fair share:
http://www.themarketbasketeffect.com/thefilm/
Reply
PKMKII
July 18, 2017 at 10:41 am
why arent promises to save service jobs as much a staple of political posturing as promises to
save mining and manufacturing jobs?
Culturally ingrained notions of Americana. The image of mid-century peak America is one of the
resource extraction and manufacturing industries, and the associated jobs. Springsteen and John
Cougar Mellencamp. Whereas retail is seen as tertiary, the supporting cast to manual labor and white
collar, even if its not a reflection of current reality. Much as how our culture still depicts paperboys as
a staple of suburban neighborhoods, even though theyve almost entirely disappeared.
Reply
Art Eclectic
July 18, 2017 at 12:19 pm
There is a renaissance to be had, but it wont be from retail jobs. It will be from service jobs that pay
better. No community needs another Best Buy but it does need competent mechanics, competent
nursing/caregivers, competent home repair/services. Businesses selling goods easily purchased

electronically will continue to slide. Businesses selling services not easily purchased online will grow.
Ive been trying to hire a competent contractor to do some home improvement for 5 months. Every
single one Ive contacted based on glowing reviews is too booked for my job. Thats a market and
need going unfulfilled.
On the flip side, I needed an item the other day and found that Lowes carried (1) in stock. I wanted it
right away so I drove over to Lowes and they didnt have it on the shelf. I asked the guy in the
department for it, showed him my phone where it said they had one. He told me that was the display
model. I asked if I could purchase that one since I wanted it right away. He told me it was missing
parts. So, I stood there and ordered it off Amazon right in front of him. Shame about his job, but if
Lowes cant be bothered to keep stock, Im going to go elsewhere.
Reply
Arizona Slim
July 18, 2017 at 1:18 pm
Tell me about it. Im in the process of having the Arizona Slim Ranch renovated. Every contractor
Ive hired has been super-busy. Every one.
Reply
Art Eclectic
July 18, 2017 at 2:38 pm
Right? And the thing that boggles my mind is that most of those jobs pay better than working in
the paint department at Lowes.
Reply
Arizona Slim
July 18, 2017 at 2:54 pm
Exactly.
And theres the pride of workmanship thing. Im beefing up my construction photography
skills by documenting whats being done on my house. Which means that Ive spent more
than a little time praising the workers, the effort theyre making, and how good things are
starting to look at the Arizona Slim Ranch,
The result: Great photos for me and a fabulous looking house. Im really enjoying how this
project is turning out.
Reply
Michael Fiorillo
July 18, 2017 at 3:09 pm
Paving, framing, roofing, duct, foundation work, etc. , in an Arizona July?
Its hard to imagine paying someone enough to do that day in, day out. They should certainly
be paid at least as much as, if not more than, people putting together mortgage-backed
commercial REITs
Reply
Jeremy Grimm
July 18, 2017 at 1:20 pm
The decline of retail presents another issue. Small Mainstreet retail is what a lot of people think
about when they think about starting their own business if they werent thinking about starting a
restaurant. Mainstreet retail was hammered by big box stores and shopping centers. The Internet
presented new opportunities for small business opportunities all too soon folded into
conglomerates like Amazon, Etsy and Ebay. Soon foreign vendors showed up with cheaper copies to
undercut any market that congealed. The decline of small retail is also a decline in the already limited
opportunities many people have for starting their own business. The concentration of market outlets
gives those who control those market outlets control over those producing goods. And their leverage
is greatest over the smaller manufacturers.
Reply
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The US Retail Crisis - Naked Capitalism

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18/07/2017 The US Retail Crisis | naked capitalism

Fearless commentary on finance, economics, politics and power

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July 18, 2017 at 6:59 am

lyman alpha blob

lyman alpha blob

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nursing/caregivers, competent home repair/services. Businesses selling goods easily purchased

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