Example:- A factory produces 3 machines, A, B and C producing 1000, 2000 and 3000 bolts per day

respectively. It is found that A produces 1% defective, B produces 2 % defective and C produces 3%

defectives.

(a) If a bolt is chosen at the end of the day and found defective what is the probability that it came
from machine B.

(b) If a bolt is chosen at the end of the day and found defective what is the probability that it came
from machine C.

Example- An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck
drivers. The probability of an accident involving a scooter driver, a car driver and truck driver is 0.01,
0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured person met with an accident. What is the probability
that

(a) he is a scooter driver.

(b) he is a car driver.

(c) he is a truck driver.

Example - Page No 169, problem No 32, 33 from Anderson, D.R., D.J. Sweeney, & Williams T.A.
(2014). Statistics for business and economics, Cengage Learning, eleventh edition