CanJPsychiatry 2015;60(7):309314

In Review

The Natural History of Antisocial Personality Disorder

Donald W Black, MD1

1
Professor of Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry, University of Iowa Roy J and Lucille A Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, Iowa.
Correspondence: 2126b MEB/Psychiatry Research, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA 52242; donald-black@uiowa.edu.

Antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) is characterized by a pattern of socially irresponsible,

Key Words: antisocial
personality disorder,
sociopathy, natural history,
psychopathy, review
Received and accepted March
2015.
exploitative, and guiltless behaviour. ASPD is associated with co-occurring mental health
and addictive disorders and medical comorbidity. Rates of natural and unnatural death
(suicide, homicide, and accidents) are excessive. ASPD is a predictor of poor treatment
response. ASPD begins early in life, usually by age 8 years. Diagnosed as conduct
disorder in childhood, the diagnosis converts to ASPD at age 18 if antisocial behaviours
have persisted. While chronic and lifelong for most people with ASPD, the disorder tends
to improve with advancing age. Earlier onset is associated with a poorer prognosis. Other
moderating factors include marriage, employment, early incarceration (or adjudication
during childhood), and degree of socialization.

WWW

Lhistoire naturelle du trouble de la personnalit antisociale

Le trouble de la personnalit antisociale (TPAS) est caractris par un modle de
comportement socialement irresponsable, exploiteur et sans remords. Le TPAS est
associ des troubles de sant mentale et de dpendance co-occurrents et une
comorbidit mdicale. Les taux de dcs naturels et non naturels (suicide, homicide,
accidents) sont excessifs. Le TPAS est prdicteur dune mauvaise rponse au traitement.
Le TPAS dbute tt dans la vie, habituellement vers lge de 8 ans. Diagnostiqu comme
trouble des conduites dans lenfance, le diagnostic devient celui du TPAS 18 ans si
les comportements antisociaux ont persist. Bien que le trouble soit chronique et durant
toute la de vie pour la plupart des personnes souffrant du TPAS, il tend samliorer en
vieillissant. Un dbut plus prcoce est associ un moins bon pronostic. Dautres facteurs
modrateurs sont notamment le mariage, lemploi, lincarcration prcoce (ou une dcision
judiciaire dans lenfance), et un degr de socialisation.

A ntisocial personality disorder is defined by a pattern

of socially irresponsible, exploitative, and guiltless
behaviour.1 Symptoms include failure to conform to law,
failure to sustain consistent employment, manipulation of
others for personal gain, deception of others, and failure
to develop stable interpersonal relationships.2 Lifetime
prevalence for ASPD is reported to range from 2% to 4%
in men and from 0.5% to 1% in women.3,4 Prevalence peaks
in people age 24 to 44 years and drops off in people 45 to
64 years.5 The male-to-female ratio is estimated at between
2:1 and 6:1, depending on assessment method and sample
characteristics.6 The prevalence of ASPD varies with the
setting but can reach 80% in correctional settings.7,8
ASPD is associated with co-occurring mental health and
addictive disorders, including major depressive disorder,
bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, somatic symptom
disorders, substance use disorders, gambling disorder,
and sexual disorders.9,10 People with ASPD are at risk for
traumatic injuries, accidents, suicide attempts, hepatitis
C infections, and the human immunodeficiency virus.1012
People with ASPD use a disproportionate share of medical
and mental health services.9,13 ASPD has been identified
as a predictor of poor treatment response in certain
populations.1416
People with ASPD have high mortality rates owing to
accidents, suicide, and homicide.17,18 One study18 showed
elevated death rates from diabetes mellitus, suggesting
that some people with ASPD may neglect their medical
problems or fail to comply with medical regimens.
Early Course
Antisocial behaviours typically have their onset before age
8 years.6 Nearly 80% of people with ASPD developed their
first symptom by age 11 years.6 Boys develop symptoms
earlier than girls, who may not develop symptoms until
puberty.6 Robins19 has observed that a child who makes it
to age 15 without exhibiting antisocial behaviours (that is,
CD) will not develop ASPD. Other investigators have also

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In Review
reported that the presence of CD in childhood is a robust
predictor of ASPD in adulthood.2022
The DSM-5 definition of ASPD requires a history of
2
childhood CD, the diagnosis used for persistent and serious
childhood behaviour problems. Once the child passes age
18 years, if the behavioural problems have persisted the
diagnosis changes to ASPD. An estimated 25% of girls and
40% of boys with CD will later meet criteria for ASPD.6 A
subset of antisocial adults have no history of childhood CD,
but appear to meet adult criteria for ASPD; these people
tend to have milder syndromes.23,24
Early Studies: The Gluecks and Robins
Research conducted in the 1940s and 1950s by Robins19 at
Washington University in St Louis, and by the Gluecks (see
Glueck and Glueck25) at Harvard, independently showed
the continuity between adult and childhood behavioural
problems. The work of these researchers later influenced
the diagnostic criteria for ASPD in DSM-III.26
The Gluecks followed 500 boys between age 10 and 17
25
years judged officially delinquent by the Massachusetts
correctional system. The boys were contacted for interviews
at ages 25, 32, and 45 years. In the 1990s, Sampson and
Laub27 reanalyzed the Gluecks data, originally published
in Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency,25 and were able to
confirm their findings. Severe antisocial behaviour in
childhood (that is, problems serious enough to constitute
delinquency in the eyes of the law) was strongly linked to
adult criminality and deviant behaviour. Arrests between
age 17 and 32 years were 3 to 4 times more likely to occur
in men with a history of delinquent behaviour than in
their nondelinquent peers. Childhood antisocial behaviour
also predicted educational achievement, economic status,
employment, and family life in adulthood. Sampson and
Laub27 concluded that the varied outcomes correlated
with childhood behaviour are all expressions of the same
underlying trait.
More influential was the work of Robins,19 who studied 524
subjects seen in a child guidance clinic between 1922 and
1932 and followed up in the 1950s. She described the study
in Deviant Children Grown Up.19 The children were, on
average, 13 years old when seen at the clinic; nearly three-
quarters were boys, most of whom had been referred from
juvenile court. Robins concluded that ASPD is a chronic,
persistent disorder that seldom remits.
Among the 524 subjects, 94 qualified for an ASPD
diagnosis in adulthood, 82 of whom were interviewed an
average of 30 years later. Now in their 30s and 40s, Robins
Abbreviations
ASPD antisocial personality disorder
CD conduct disorder
DSM Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders
310 W La Revue canadienne de psychiatrie, vol 60, no 7, juillet 2015
Clinical Implications
ASPD is important to diagnose because of its
prognostic implications.
ASPD shows the continuity between childhood and
adult behavioural problems.
ASPD is chronic and lifelong for most people, but tends
to moderate with advancing age.
Limitations
Many prospective studies have involved
nonrepresentative samples, such as those who have
been hospitalized or adjudicated.
The definition of ASPD has evolved, complicating the
interpretation of findings in early studies.
Many prospective studies have used a limited number
of predictive variables.
concluded that 12% had remitted (that is, no evidence of
antisocial behaviour), while another 27% had improved
but not remitted, and 61% were unimproved or worse. The
median age for improvement was 35 years, but Robins
noted that there was no age beyond which improvement
seemed impossible.19, p 222 That a subject had improved did
not mean the disorder was no longer a problem. She writes
the following:
The finding that more than one-third of the
sociopathic group had given up much of the antisocial
behavior ... does not mean that at present they are
strikingly well-adjusted and agreeable persons. Many
of them report interpersonal difficulties, irritability,
hostility toward wives, neighbors, and organized
religion. They are in many cases no longer either a
threat to the life and property of others nor a financial
drain on society.19, p 236
The Iowa Antisocial Follow-Up
Black et al28 followed-up 71 men who had been
psychiatrically hospitalized at the University of Iowa
between 1945 and 1970 and met DSM-III criteria for
ASPD, which were applied retrospectively to the case
notes. The researchers were able to trace over 90% of the
men and had sufficient information to rate outcome in 45
who had been hospitalized an average of 29 years earlier.
The men were a mean age of 56 years at the follow-up.
With ratings similar to those used by Robins,19 Black
et al28 concluded that 27% of the subjects had remitted, 31%
had improved but not remitted, and 42% were unimproved
or worse. Subjects most likely to have improved were the
least symptomatic at baseline and had achieved an older
age by the time of the follow-up. Black et al28 concluded
that many of the antisocial behaviours present at index
evaluation were still present at follow-up:
Although most of our subjects were no longer
having frequent confrontations with the police, they
continued to have enduring problems with poor
www.LaRCP.ca

occupational performance, social isolation, marital
discord, poor family relations, and substance
abuse.p 138
Black et al29 compared the course of the antisocial men to
that of people with schizophrenia or depression, as well
as to healthy control subjects, data previously published
in the Iowa 500 study. All subjects had been hospitalized
at the same facility. In this comparison, antisocial men
fared less well than depressed subjects and healthy control
subjects in their marital, occupational, and psychiatric
adjustment. Antisocial men functioned better than people
with schizophrenia in their marital status and housing, but
not in their occupational status or aggregate psychiatric
symptoms. In other words, they were more likely than
people with schizophrenia to be married and to have their
own housing, but they were as likely to perform poorly in
the workplace and to have disabling psychiatric symptoms
though the specific symptoms differed.
Both Black et al28,30 and Robins19 found that a sizable
percentage of people with ASPD improve or remit with
advancing age. This finding is consistent with crime statistics,
which show that arrests peak among people in their late teens
and then decline. Few arrests occur in older adults; when
arrests occur they are due to conduct offences, such as public
drunkenness, rather than with violent crime.31 While the
aging antisocial person is less troublesome to the community,
many remain troublesome to their families, neighbours, and
coworkers. Many of these people will need to draw on public
resources for survival; and many of those who improve are
unable to regain lost opportunities in education, employment,
and domestic life. For some people, improvement still means
living on societys margins.32
Youth Follow-up Studies
The Developmental Trends Study21,33,34 began in 1987
and involved 177 boys in Pennsylvania and Georgia, age
7 to 12 years, who were followed up at regular intervals
into early adulthood. The purpose of the study was to
document the course of disruptive behaviour over time
and its interaction with co-occurring disorders. The boys
were recruited from university clinics to which they had
been referred because of disruptive behaviour disorders,
such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder or CD.
The investigators showed the following: boys with an
early onset of symptoms had a faster progression to more
serious problems than boys whose problems emerged at
a later age; physical fighting predicted the onset of CD
more than any other symptoms; oppositional defiant
disorder appeared to be a developmental precursor to CD
in some boys; and CD was predictive of the later diagnosis
of ASPD.
The Pittsburgh Youth Study33,35 was a longitudinal study
of inner-city boys that also began in 1987, and whose aim
was to trace the development of antisocial and delinquent
behaviour from childhood to early adulthood. Among boys
in the first, fourth, and seventh years in the Pittsburgh
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The Natural History of Antisocial Personality Disorder
public schools, 1517 were screened, and the 30% most
antisocial were selected for follow-up, along with 30%
of the remainder as a comparator. The boys ranged in age
from 7 to 13 years at intake. In this study, the researchers
were able to show that problem behaviours occurred along
a developmental trajectory from childhood to adolescence.
The onset of minor covert acts, such as lying and shoplifting,
tended to occur before the onset of property damage, which,
in turn, occurred before the onset of moderate-to-serious
forms of delinquency.
The Jack Rollers Story
The natural history of ASPD is illustrated in a more
personal way by examining the true life of Stanley (the
Jack Roller), as portrayed in the books The Jack Roller:
A Delinquent Boys Own Story by Clifford Shaw36 and The
Jack Roller at 70 by the Jack Roller and Jon Snodgrass.37
Stanley was a chronic runaway at age 6, truant by age 8,
in custody 26 times before age 10, and 38 times by age
17, including 3 terms at a home for incorrigible boys, and
1 year each in 2 reformatories. Through a great deal of
ingenuity, Snodgrass found and re-interviewed Stanley
when he was 70 years old. No longer involved in any
significant criminal activity, Stanley continued to have
trouble keeping jobs, was constantly on guard against
assault by others, and took little responsibility for his
own problems. He clearly had all the earmarks of ASPD,
despite his advanced age.
Shaw later edited Brothers in Crime, published in 1938.38
The book describes the 5 Martin boys and their progression
from juvenile delinquents to adult criminals, who, together,
spent a total of 55 years in prison. At the time of publication,
the brothers ranged in age from 25 to 35 years, 4 of the 5 were
considered improved and were engaged in self-supporting
activities, although the oldest, John, was actively alcoholic,
while the youngest, Carl, was incarcerated. The stories of
their misbehaviour intertwine, but also display the familial
nature of ASPD.
Different Trajectories
Moffitt and colleagues (see Moffitt39 and Odgers et al40)
have suggested that ASPD is highly stable in a small
percentage of men and women whose behavioural problems
are extreme (categorized as life-course-persistent). As part
of the Dunedin longitudinal study in New Zealand, Moffitt
and colleagues traced the outcome of 1037 children from
age 3 to 32 years. Conversely, most antisocial youth with
behavioural problems were categorized as having an
adolescence-limited form of antisocial behaviour, described
as less severe and typically arising in the context of teenage
peer group pressure. These teens typically have little or no
history of earlier antisocial behaviour and will improve
on their own, as most children diagnosed with CD do not
develop adult ASPD. For both men and women, the life-
course-persistent group showed an early onset of antisocial
behaviour, developed more severe behavioural problems,
The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, Vol 60, No 7, July 2015 W 311
In Review
and had a greater variety of problems than the adolescent-
limited group.
Outcome Predictors in ASPD
Robins19 found that most of the children improved as they
grew older and did not become adults with ASPD. She
concluded that variety and severity of childhood behaviour
problems were the single best predictors of adult antisocial
behaviour. Robins writes as follows:
No patient without moderately severe antisocial
behavior, as measured by having six or more kinds
of antisocial behavior, four or more episodes of
antisocial behavior, or an episode of such behavior
serious enough that it might have led to a court
appearance, was diagnosed sociopathic personality
as adult.19, p 157
Among the few variables predictive of long-term
adjustment, Robins19 observed that greater improvement
occurred in people over 40 years at the time of follow-up.
These findings are consistent with data reported by Black
et al,28,30 in which improvement in men with ASPD was
positively associated with increasing age. Another variable
is incarceration. Robins found that men incarcerated less
than a year had a higher rate of remission than those who
were never incarcerated, or those who were incarcerated
for longer periods of time. This latter finding suggests
that a brief incarceration could act as a deterrent to further
antisocial behaviour.
Relationships
Marriage is another moderating variable. In Robins study,19
over one-half of married people with ASPD improved, but
few unmarried people improved. Spouses, partners, and
others close to the person with ASPD can play an important
role in urging therapy, and improvement often comes
when one has a source of personal support and motivation.
People with ASPD who remitted had stronger family
ties, were more involved in their communities, and were
more likely to live with their spouses. These findings are
largely consistent with the Gluecks findings that linked job
stability and marital attachment with improvement.25 Each
of these situationsfrom brief incarceration to relative
success with marriage and family lifecould easily be the
result of improvement rather than its cause.
One might expect that people with ASPD who stay
happily married, or who have not faced lengthy periods of
incarceration, simply have milder cases of ASPD to begin
with or are otherwise predisposed to getting better. There
is some evidence for this, at least regarding marriage. In
a study of male twins followed from 17 to 29 years, the
researchers discovered that men with less severe forms
of antisocial behaviour were more likely to marry than
their more antisocial twin.41 Possibly, severe antisocial
symptoms hinder marriage because they interfere with
forming intimate relationships.
312 W La Revue canadienne de psychiatrie, vol 60, no 7, juillet 2015
Another factor that may moderate eventual outcome is
degree of childhood socialization, which is the childs
tendency to form relationships and internalize social norms.
Jenkins and Glickman42 identified 2 types of children with
CD: the socialized and the undersocialized. They observed
that the ability to develop group loyalty is crucial and marks
a fundamental division among children with CD. Socialized
children, regardless of their behaviour, form strong ties to a
familiar group of friends, whereas undersocialized children
tend to be loners. In a 10-year, follow-up study, Henn
et al43 found that socialized delinquents were less likely to
have been convicted of crimes or imprisoned as adults than
undersocialized delinquents.
Other Studies
Three additional studies are relevant to any review of the
natural history of ASPD. These are the follow-up studies
of Maddocks,44 Gibbens et al,45 and Tong,46 all conducted in
the United Kingdom in the 1950s and 1960s. The subjects
in each study were considered psychopaths, a rough
equivalent of ASPD.
Maddocks44 reported a 5-year, follow-up study of patients
seen in an outpatient department between 1961 and 1963. The
men were considered psychopaths, and the inclusion criteria
included impulsivity, trouble with the law, several spouses or
sexual partners, trouble at school, and unreliability. Maddocks
traced 52 of 59 men; 10 (19%) had settled down, 39 (75%)
had not settled, and 3 (6%) had died by suicide. He defined
settled down as having shown a reduction of impulsiveness
enabling the patient to stay in the same job, stay with the
same partner, and generally a reduction in symptoms that
placed him in the category in the first place.44, p 511 While
there was no clear distinction between men who had settled
and those who had not, 15 (38%) of those who had not settled
drank excessively or were frank alcoholics.
Gibbens et al45 reported on a 8-year, follow-up of 72
incarcerated criminal psychopaths whose courses were
compared with those of 59 ordinary criminals. The
psychopaths were considered as having severe cases, and
were selected with the assistance of experienced prison
medical officers. The psychopaths had a greater number of
subsequent convictions than the control subjects, yet 24%
had only 1 or no conviction. Of note, the psychopaths were
more likely than the control subjects to have an abnormal
electroencephalograph. Gibbens et al45 concluded that
psychopathic personality does not inevitably portend
as hopeless a prognosis as is usually implied.p 109
Psychopaths considered aggressive had a worse prognosis,
compared with the inadequate psychopaths. They had
more reconvictions and were committed for aggressive
offences, such as willful damage and drunken assault.
Gibbens et al45 write as follows:
It seems probable that the aggressive psychopath
is so crippled in all his social relations that he is
only able to live by crime and his record therefore
consists very largely of acquisitive offences.p 112
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Tong46 reported on the outcome of criminal psychopaths.
They had been legally classified as psychopaths in the
United Kingdom, and incarcerated between 1954 and 1961
at Rampton Hospital, a special close security psychiatric
hospital that catered to offenders considered dangerous or
to have violent propensities. Tong defined psychopathic
behaviour as
criminal behavior charcterised by extreme
callousness, brutality, disregard for others, on the
one hand, and or criminal behavior which is not
necessarily violent or serious, but is repeated over
and over again.p 104
The men were a mean age of 29 years at follow-up and
had been incarcerated nearly 9 years. Among the 587 men,
171 (29%) relapsed, from which Tong46 concluded that the
prognosis is far from hopeless.p 105 Few admitted at later
ages relapsed, and Both age on discharge and length of stay
in hospital correlated positively with successp 105findings
that are roughly similar to what Black et al28 reported in
their follow-up study.
Future Directions
Several conclusions can be drawn from this review. The natural
history of ASPD is better understood than other personality
disorders because of the various case reports and longitudinal
studies that have been conducted during the past 80 years.
For most people, ASPD is a chronic disorder that begins in
early childhood and continues throughout adulthood. ASPD
is associated with co-occurring mental health and addictive
disorders; mortality rates are high. While people with ASPD
improve with advancing age, problems continue, though on
a lesser scale, such as poor job performance and domestic
problems. Improvement can occur at any age, but it most likely
starts between the mid-30s and early 40s. Lastly, people with
more severe syndromes at onset, appear to be the ones with the
most severe ASPD at follow-up. We cannot predict outcome,
but people with earlier onset tend to have a worse outcome, and
moderating factors include marriage, family and community
ties, early incarceration (or adjudication in childhood), and
degree of socialization.
Researchers have much work to do. They need to determine
the full extent of the disorder in various subpopulations and
to determine the clinical picture in women, as well as their
comparative course and outcome. A small percentage of
people with ASPD appear not to have a history of CD, and
researchers need to better characterize this subset. Outcome
data are based on skewed samples. While it is clear that the
disorder is chronic for most, we have little understanding
of how or why some improve, while others do not. Nor do
we know if any therapeutic interventions, or incarceration,
change its course. Outcome predictors are important to
study, including clinical and illness variables, and potential
biomarkers. Lastly, we must focus attention on troubled
children because of their great risk for developing ASPD.
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The Natural History of Antisocial Personality Disorder
Acknowledgements
Dr Black has received royalties from the American
Psychiatric Publishing, Oxford University Press, and
UpToDate, Inc, and he has received research support from
AstraZeneca, the National Institute on Aging, and the Nellie
Ball Trust.
The Canadian Psychiatric Association proudly supports the
In Review series by providing an honorarium to the authors.
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