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FAROS TRADING | FX EVENING UPDATE

Market Summary – 08/05/2010

flows although ‘official’ interest was seen buying.

Good Evening USD/CAD met with real money selling on the bounce off
of the 1.0108 low but it wasn’t enough to keep the pair
The market whipsawed in a pre-NFP, August, low liquidity,
from rallying back to 1.0170. The 1.0200 level needs to
stop driven way throughout the NY session with the
hold for the 1.0000 level to trade in the near term.
EUR/USD finishing where it started, at 1.3200 and above
the 1.3106 fibo level. Flows were on the lighter side but USD/MXN rallied back to the 12.6000 level amid news
ranges were decent and trends for the most part have that GS recommended selling MXN vs. CLP as well as
held for now. news that Mexico’s Werner will likely leave his post.

It feels like the GBP/USD has done the heavy lifting on this The IMF indicated that the BRL was likely overvalued and
USD move lower and the EUR/USD has a little catching up many in the speculative community seem to agree as we
to do, which means EUR/GBP may be due for a correction continue to hear of macro unwinding USD/BRL shorts.
higher. GBP/USD is trading approximately 2.5% above its
200 day at 1.5531 and just under resistance at 1.6000 A US Treasury spokesperson denied that President
while EUR/USD is trading approximately 2.5% below its Obama had a change in policy in mind for Fannie and
200 day at 1.3541 and just above its 38.2% fibo level at Freddie after a Reuters political analyst published an
1.3106. EUR/GBP stalled at 0.8250 area which was above article discussing mortgage alterations within Fannie and
the early June low at 0.8220 which leads me to believe a Freddie as a next wave of economic stimulus to be timed
test of the 100 day at 0.8515 may be in the cards in the with upcoming elections. Rating agency Fitch was also in
short term. A move like that in EUR/GBP would bring the news downgrading $7bn of Chicago bonds.
EUR/USD comfortably up to its 200 day at 1.3541 while
The Asian session is likely to be quiet ahead of the US NFP
keeping GBP/USD steady.
and maybe we see a little more profit taking in the NJA
Markets in NY opened in a positive tone after the reversal space ahead of the data. USD/KRW and USD/IDR may be
higher in EUR/USD and GBP/USD in the London session on two likely candidates but I would estimate flows to be
a better than expected Spanish auction but the relatively light. USD/JPY and cross JPY will likely be met
momentum was short lived as jobless claims data in the with another round of exporter interest to sell but again,
US disappointed. The EUR/USD took out the stops below flows are likely to be light and ranges should hold for
1.3160 after briefly trading 1.3220 before the data and we now.
drifted off the lows to trade 1.3200 again into the close of
Good luck
the session. USD/JPY remained under pressure
throughout the day with little in the way of meaningful

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