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1. The table below shows the historical cumulative probabilities for corporate bonds

with quality ratings of AA and B:

cumulative probabilities shown in the table.

b. What is the relation between conditional probabilities and credit spreads.

a

Probabilities (%)

Probabilities (%)

b. A credit spread on a bond can be thought of as bond investors expected loss from

the principal from default. For bonds with no option or liquidity risk, the expected

loss from the principal from default is equal to the conditional probability times

one minus the recovery rate: Conditional probability (1 recovery rate). To see

this, consider a portfolio of 5-year BBB bonds trading at a 2% credit spread. The

2% premium that investors receive from the bond portfolio represents their

compensation for an implied expected loss of 2% per year of the principal from

the defaulted bonds. If the spread were 2% and bond investors believed that the

expected loss from default on such bonds would be only 1% per year of the

principal, then the bond investors would want more BBB bonds, driving the price

up and the yield down until the premium reflected a 1% spread. Similarly, if the

spread were 2% and bond investors believed the default loss on a portfolio of

1

BBB bonds would be 3% per year, then the demand and price for such bonds

would decrease, increasing the yield to reflect a credit spread of 3%. Thus, in an

efficient market, the credit spread on bonds and the equilibrium spreads represent

the markets implied expectation of the expected loss per year from the principal

from default.

The yield on a five-year, risk-free Treasury-note = 5%

The yield on a five-year, BB-quality bond = 8%, with the 3% spread reflecting

only credit risk

The credit spread on a five-year CDS on the 5-year, BB-quality bond of 2%

could gain a 1% yield over the risk-free investment by using a CD.

b. Explain what an arbitrageur would do.

c. Comment on the impact the actions by investors and arbitragers would have

on determining the equilibrium spread on a CDS.

advantageous to create the synthetic risk-free investment with the BB bond and

the CDS. That is, the investor could earn 1% more than the yield on the Treasury

by buying the five-year, BB corporate yielding 8% and purchasing the CDS on

the underlying credit at a 2% spread.

of the par value of the bond by shorting the Treasury at 5% and then using the

proceeds to buy the BB corporate and then buying the CDS.

c. Collectively, the actions of the investors and arbitrageur would have the effect of

pushing the spread on CDS from 2% to 3%the same spread as the BB-bond.

The yield on a five-year, risk-free Treasury-note = 5%

The yield on a five-year, BB-quality bond = 8%, with the 3% spread reflecting

only credit risk

The credit spread on a five-year CDS on the five-year, BB-quality bond of 4%

a. Explain how a bond investor looking to invest in the 5-year, BB-rated bond

could gain a 1% yield over that investment by using a CDS.

b. Explain what an arbitrageur would do.

c. Comment on the impact the actions by investors and arbitragers would have

on determining the equilibrium spread on a CDS.

a. The investor looking to invest in five-year BB bonds could earn 1% more than the

8% on the BB bond by creating a synthetic 5-year BB bond by purchasing the

2

five-year Treasury at 5% and selling the CDS at 4%.

of the par value on the bond by shorting the BB-bond, selling the CDS, and then

using proceeds to purchase five-year Treasuries. With these positions, the

arbitrageur would receive for each of the next five years 5% from her Treasury

investment and 4% from her CDS, while paying only 8% on her short BB bond

position. Furthermore, the arbitrageurs holdings of Treasury securities would

enable her to cover her obligation on the CDS if there was a default. That is, in the

event of a default, she would be able to pay the CDS holder from the net proceed

from selling her Treasuries and closing her short BB bond by buying back the

corporate bonds at their defaulted recovery price.

c. Collectively, the actions of the investors and arbitrageur would have the effect of

pushing the spread on CDS from 4% to 3%the same spread as the BB bond.

4. Given a discount rate of 5%, determine the present value of the payments on a five-

year CDS with a spread of 3% and a NP of $1. If the recovery rate on the

underlying credit is 30%, what is the probability intensity implied by the spread?

5

(.03)($1)

PV(CDS Payments) (1.05) t

$0 .129884

t 1

The implied probability is obtained by solving for the p that makes the present value of

the expected payout equal to present value of the payments of $0.129884. In this

problem, the implied probability is .042857:

3

PV (Expected Payout) PV (Payments)

M

p NP(1 RR ) M

Z NP

t 1 (1 R ) t

(1 R )

t 1

t

Z

p

(1 RR )

.03

p .042857

(1 .30)

M

p NP(1 RR )

PV (Expected Payout)

t 1 (1 R ) t

5

(.042857) ($1)(1 .30)

PV (Expected Payout) t 1 (1.05) t

$0.129884

5. What impact does the exercising of a call option by an issuer generally have on the

investors rate of return earned for the period from the purchase of the bond to its

call and the rate for the investors horizon period?

Since the call price is typically above the bond's face value, the actual rate of return the

investor earns for the period from the purchase of the bond to its call generally is greater

than the yield on the bond at the time it was purchased. However, if an investor

originally bought the bond because its maturity matched her horizon date, then she will

be faced with the disadvantage of reinvesting the call proceeds at lower market rates.

Moreover, this second effect, known as reinvestment risk, often dominates the first

effect, resulting in a rate of return over the investor's horizon period that is lower than

the promised YTM when the bond was bought.

6. Explain the relationship between call risk premiums and the level of interest rates in

the economy.

When interest rates are high and expected to fall, bonds are more likely to be called in

the future; as a result, in a period of high interest rates, a lower demand and higher

rate on callable over noncallable bonds would occur. Thus, in a period of high rates

the call risk premium would be relatively large. In contrast, when interest rates are

low and expected to rise, we would expect the effect of call provisions on interest

rates to be negligible. Thus, in a period of low rates the call risk premium would be

relatively small.

4

7. Explain how interest rate changes affect a bonds return?

A change in interest rates has two effects on a bond's return. First, there is a price effect

in which a change in interest rates affects the price of a bond. If the investor's horizon is

different from the bond's maturity date, then the investor will be uncertain about the

price he will receive from selling the bond (HD < M), or the price he will have to pay for

a new bond (HD > M). Secondly, there is a reinvestment effect in which interest rate

changes affect the return the investor expects from reinvesting the coupons. One way an

investor can eliminate market risk is to purchase a zero-discount bond with a maturity

that is equal to the investor's horizon.

8. The AIF Company issued a 10-year bond at par (F = $1,000) that pays a coupon of

11% on an annual basis, and is callable at $1,100. Suppose you bought the bond

when it was issued, and at the time of your purchase suppose the yield curve was

flat and continued to remain at that level during years 1-4. However, at the start of

year 5 (or end of year 4), suppose the yield curve dropped to 8% and AIF called the

bond. Assume you reinvest your investment funds in a new six-year bond at par

and the yield curve remains flat at 8%. What is your total return for the call

period? What is your total return for the 10-year period? How do the total returns

compare to the YTM when you purchased the bond?

Call Date Value : 110 (1.11) 3 110 (1.11) 2 110 (1.11) 110 1100 1618 .07

1/ 4

1,618.07

TR 4 1 .1278448

1000

1 / 10

1,618.07(1.08) 6

TR 10 1 .09889

1000

TR 10 [(1.1278448 ) 4 (1.08) 6 ]1 / 10 1 .09889

The total return for the 10-year period is 9.889%, which is 1.111% less than the initial

YTM on the bond of 11%.

9. Suppose you have a horizon of 10 years and bought an 8-year, 8% coupon bond at

par (F = $1,000) that pays coupons semiannually and is callable at a call price of

$1,100. Assume the yield curve is flat at an 8.16% effective yield (or 4%

semiannual yield) and remains constant for three years. At the end of year 3,

suppose the yield curve drops to an effective yield of 5.0625% (2.5% semiannual)

and the issuer calls the bond. Assume you reinvest your investment funds in a new

seven-year bond paying coupons semiannually and the yield curve remains flat at

5.0625%. What is your semiannual rate of return and effective annual rate of

return for the call period? What is your semiannual and effective annual rate for

5

the 10-year period? How do your rates compare to the YTM when you purchased

the bond?

6 1

(1.04) 6 1

Coupon values at call date 40 (1.04) t 40 265.32

t 0 .04

Call date value 265.32 1100 1,365.32

1/ 6

1,365.32

Semiannual rate 1 .053268

1000

Effective annualized rate (1.053268) 2 1 .10937

1 / 20

1,365.32(1.025)14

Semiannual rate for period 1 .0334

1,000

Semiannual rate for period [(1.053268) 6 (1.025)14 ]1 / 20 1 .0334

Effective annualized rate (1.0334) 2 1 [(1.10937 ) 3 (1.050625)]1 / 10 1 .0679

The total return for the 10-year period is 6.79%, which is 1.37% less than the initial

YTM on the bond of 8.16%.

10. The yield curve for AA-rated bonds is presently flat at a promised YTM of 9%. You

buy a 10-year, 8% coupon bond with face value of $1000 and annual coupon

payments. Suppose your horizon date is at the end of four years. What would your

total return be given the following cases:

a. Immediately after you buy the bond the yield curve drops to 8% and

remains there until you sell the bond at your horizon date.

b. Immediately after you buy the bond the yield curve increases to 10% and

remains there until you sell the bond at your horizon date.

c. What type of risk is your investment subject to? How could the risk be

minimized?

a.

6

Current Pr ice :

10

80 1000

P0 (1.09)

t 1

t

(1.09)10

1 (1 / 1.09)10 1000

80 935.82

.09 (1.09)10

HD Value :

Coupon Value : 80(1.08) 3 80(1.08) 2 80(1.08) 80 360.49

6

1000 80

Pr ice : P6

t 1

(1.08)

(1.08) 6

1000 t

1/ 4

1,360.49

TR 4 1 .09806

935.82

b.

Current Pr ice :

10

80 1000

P0 (1.09)

t 1

t

(1.09)10

1 (1 / 1.09)10 1000

80 935.82

.09 (1.09)10

HD Value :

Coupon Value : 80(1.10) 3 80(1.10) 2 80(1.10) 80 371.28

6

1000 80

Pr ice : P6

t 1

(1.10)

(1.10) 6

912.89 t

1/ 4

1,284.17

TR 4 1 .08232

935.82

c. This is an example of market risk. The risk could be minimized by buying a bond

with duration equal to the investors horizon of 4 years.

11. Suppose you have a horizon at the end of 6 years and buy an 8-year, 8.5% coupon

bond with face value of $1,000 and annual coupon payments when the applicable

yield curve is flat at 10%. What would your total return be given the following

cases:

a. Immediately after you buy the bond the yield curve drops to 8% and

remains there until you sell the bond at your horizon date.

b. Immediately after you buy the bond the yield curve increases to 12% and

remains there until you sell the bond at your horizon date.

c. Is there any market risk? If not, why?

a.

Current Pr ice :

8

85 1,000

P0 (1.10)

t 1

t

(1.10)10

7

1 (1 / 1.10) 8 1000

85 919.98

.10 (1.10) 8

b.

c. Since the total return stays at 10% at the different rates, there is no market risk. In this

case, we have a bond with price and interest-on-interest effects that are of the same

magnitude in absolute value given the horizon date; thus, when rates change the two

effects cancel each other out.

HD Value at 8% :

6 1

(1.08) 6 1

Coupon Value 85 (1.08) t 85 623.55

t 0 .08

2

85 1,000

Pr ice : P2 t

1,008.92

HD Value att 121 (1.08)

%: (1.08) 2

HD Value 1,008.92 623.55 1,632.47

6 1

1t/ 6

(1.12) 6 - 1

Coupon Value =85 (1

1,632.47 .12 ) = 85 = 689.79

TR 6 t = 0 1 . 10 .12

919.98

2 85 1,000

Pr ice : P2 = t + = 940.85

t =1 (1.12) (1.12) 2

HD Value = 940.85 + 689.79 = 1,630.64

1/ 6

1,630.64

TR 6 = 1 = .10

919.98

12. Calculate both Macaulay and modified durations for the 8-year, 8.5% coupon bond

in Question 11 given a flat yield curve at 10%. Given your answers in Question 11,

comment on duration, horizon date, and bond immunization.

The 8-year, 8.5% coupon bond given a flat yield curve at 10% has Macaulay duration

of 6.03.

1

Modified Duration Macaulay' s Duration

(1 y)

1

Modified Duration 6.03 5.482

(1.10)

8

Alternatively, given the bond pays a principal at maturity, its modified duration and

Macaulay duration can be also be found using the following formula:

C 1 M[ F(C / y )]

2

1 M

y (1 y ) (1 y ) M 1

Modified Duration

P0b

85 1 8[1000 (85 / .10)]

2

1 8

.10 (1.10) (1.10) 9

Modified Duration

919.98

Macaulay' s Duration (1 y) Modified Duration

Macaulay' s Duration (1.10) 5.482 6.03

Comment: The problem illustrates how an investor with six-year horizon can eliminate, or

at least minimize, market risk by buying a bond that has a duration equal to the HD of 6.

Bond immunization is a strategy in which the objective is to minimize market risk. One

way to achieve this goal is to select a bond or portfolio of bonds with a duration matching

the investor's horizon date.

Maturity YTM

1 year 5%

2 years 6%

3 years 7%

4 years 8%

5 years 9%

b. Assume your HD is three years and you want to buy bonds with one- and four-

year maturities. What percentage investment should be made in each to assure

a fully immunized portfolio?

your horizon date of 3 years: HD = Dp:

HD = Dp

3 = w1 D1 + w2 D2

3 = w1 D1 + (1-w1) D2

3 = w1 (1) + (1-w1) (4)

w1 = 1/3

w2 = 2/3

9

14. Calculate Macaulays duration, the modified duration, and the convexity of the

following bonds (annualize the parameters). Assume all of the bonds pay principal

at their maturity.

a. Four-year, 9% coupon bond with a principal of $1,000 and annual coupon

payments trading at par.

b. Four-year, zero coupon bond with a principal of $1,000 and priced at $708.42

to yield 9%.

c. Five-year, 9% coupon bond with a principal of $1,000 and annual coupon

payments trading at par.

d. Ten-year, 7% coupon bond with a principal of $1,000 and semiannual coupon

payments (3.5%) and priced at par.

e. Three-year, 7% coupon bond with a principal of $1,000 and semiannual

coupon payments (3.5%) and priced at par.

f. Three-year zero-coupon bond with a principal of $1,000 and priced at $816.30

to yield 7%.

15. Given your duration and convexity calculations in Question 14, answer the

following:

a. Which bond has the greatest price sensitivity to interest rate changes?

b. For an annualized 1% decrease in rates what would be the approximate

percentage change in the prices of Bond d and Bond e?

c. Which bond has the greatest non-symmetrical capital gain and capital loss

feature?

10

d. If you were a speculator and expected yields to decrease in the near future by

the same amount across all maturities (a parallel downward shift in the yield

curve), which bond would you select?

e. If you were a bond portfolio manager and expected yields to increase in the

near future by the same amount across all maturities (a parallel upward shift in

the yield curve), which bond would you select?

f. Comment on the relation between maturity and a bonds price sensitivity to

interest rate changes.

g. Comment on the relation between coupon rate and a bonds price sensitivity to

interest rate changes.

a. Bond d has the greatest duration and therefore has the greatest price sensitivity to

interest rate changes.

approximate 7% increase in the price for Bond d and 2.66% increase in price for

Bond e.

c. Bond d has the greatest convexity and therefore non-symmetrical gain and loss

feature.

d. You would select bond dthe one with the greatest duration; if yields decrease, bond

d would have the greatest percentage increase in price.

e. You would select bond ethe one with the smallest duration; if yields increase, bond

e would have the smallest percentage decrease in price.

f. The greater a bond's maturity, the greater its duration, and therefore the greater its

price sensitivity to interest rates changes.

g. The smaller a bond's coupon rate, the greater its duration, and therefore the greater its

price sensitivity to interest rate changes.

1) Define market risk.

2) Define call risk.

3) Define default risk.

4) Define liquidity risk.

5) Explain the difference between the default rate, recovery rate, and default loss

rate.

6) Define a rating transitions matrix.

7) When would there be a direct relation between the total return and interest rate

changes?

8) When would there be an inverse relation between the total return and interest rate

changes?

11

9) When would the total return be invariant to interest rate changes?

1) The possibility that the actual rate of return realized from a bond will differ from

the expected rate because interest rates could change in the future, affecting the

price of the bond and the return earned from reinvesting coupons.

2) The possibility that the actual rate of return realized from a bond will differ from the

expected rate because the issuer/borrower could call the bond back, forcing the

investor to reinvest in a market with lower interest rates.

3) The possibility that the actual rate of return realized from a bond will differ from the

expected rate because the issuer/borrower could fail to meet the contractual

obligations specified in the indenture.

4) Liquidity risk is the uncertainty that market trading conditions will change, making

the bond harder to trade, and in turn, causing the bonds price to decrease and its

yield to increase.

5) Holders of defaulted bonds usually recover a percentage of their investment

recovery rate. As a result, the default loss rate from an investment is lower than the

default rate:

Default Loss Rate = Default Rate (1 Recovery Rate)

6) Ratings transition matrix is defined in terms of the quality ratings at the beginning of

the year and the ratings at the end of the year.

7) There is a direct relation when the direct interest-on-interest effect dominates the

inverse price effect.

8) There is an inverse relation when the inverse price effect dominates the direct

interest-on-interest effect dominates.

9) The total return would be invariant to interest rate changes when the inverse price

effect and the direct interest-on-interest effect exactly offset each other; this

occurs when the bonds duration is equal to the investors horizon date.

17. A 10-year, 5% coupon bond making annual payments has a Macaulay duration of

8 years if the bond is priced at 92.64 per 100 face value to yield 6%. Show how

classical immunization works by showing the target value and TR for an 8-year

horizon date from an investment in the 10-year, 5% bond are approximately the

same given different yield curve shifts. Specifically, assume there is a one-time shift

in the yield curve to 4% and to 8% just after the investment is made (and the

duration of the bond still matches the duration of the liabilities). Assume the yield

curve is flat and use annual compounding.

Price = 92.64 Price = 92.64

5(1.04)7 = 6.58 5(1.08)7 = 8.57

5(1.04)6 = 6.33 5(1.08)6 = 7.93

5(1.04)5 = 6.08 5(1.08)5 = 7.35

5(1.04)4 = 5.85 5(1.08)4 = 6.80

5(1.04)3 = 5.62 5(1.08)3 = 6.30

5(1.04)2 = 5.41 5(1.08)2 = 5.83

12

5(1.04)1 = 5.20 5(1.08)1 = 5.40

5 (1.04)0 = 5.00 5 (1.04)0 = 5.00

5 105 5 105

P8 101.89 P8 94.65

1.04 (1.04) 2 1.08 (1.08) 2

Target Value = 147.96 Target Value = 147.83

TR = .0603 TR = .0602

13

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