Uncertainty Evaluation of

Wellbore-Stability-Model Predictions

T he purpose of this work is to

investigate typical fracture
and collapse models with respect
and uncertainties caused by wellbore-
stability-modeling processes.
Expected values give no information
Wellbore Instabilities
Wellbore instabilities include such phe-
nomena as breaking of intact rock around
to accuracies in the input data. about uncertainty. Deterministic estima- the wellbore because of high stress con-
Uncertainties in the input data will be tion of the downhole pressure limits pro- centration or sudden temperature varia-
considered to show how they contribute vides only single-point values that lack tions; loosening of rock fragments; and
to the cumulative uncertainties in variability information. Instead, proba- fracture extension from the wellbore into
model predictions. In this approach, bility distributions can be used. With this the formation, sometimes with a signifi-
the input parameters are assigned approach, cumulative uncertainties in cant loss of drilling fluid. They also con-
appropriate probability distributions. the output predictions can be quantified, sist of such mechanisms as failure of rock
The distributions are then applied in the leading to a more-informed decision. around the borehole because of inter-
wellbore-stability models. By means of action with drilling fluid, squeezing of
Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainties In-Situ Stress Field soft rocks such as salt and shales into the
are propagated and outputs, which follow For a given formation, the starting point wellbore, and activation of pre-existing
a probability distribution, are generated. in wellbore-stability analysis is the in-situ faults that intersect the wellbore.
or pre-existing stress state. Knowledge of A significant amount of break-
the stress state is key to handling borehole outs resulting from mechanical failure
Introduction problems such as fracturing, lost circula- around a wellbore can cause severe sta-
Wellbore-stability analysis is necessary tion, collapse, and sand production. The bility problems such as excessive torque
for safe drilling operations, especially in-situ stress state is normally assumed to and drag, sudden increase in bottomhole
now that oil and gas operators venture coincide with vertical and horizontal di- pressure, and stuck pipe. By application
into more-challenging environments. A rections. In relaxed depositional basins, of good drilling procedures, cavings can
wide range of parameters is required for the values of these horizontal stresses are be removed efficiently and safely. How
accurate study, many of which are subject usually lower than those of the vertical ever, borehole instability remains the
to uncertainties caused by measurement stress. The horizontal-stress magnitudes, major cause of lost drilling time and lost
errors. Error also can be introduced into however, may exceed those of the vertical downhole equipment.
data through the methods of interpreta- stress in strongly tectonic regions.
tion used. Epistemic error, arising from A stress state can be defined as normal- Mechanisms of Wellbore Failure. Shear
imperfect human knowledge of a system, fault, reverse-fault, or strike/slip-fault state Failure. The von Mises yield condition
is another source of input uncertainties. of stress. The normal-fault stress state is and the Mohr-Coulomb shear-failure cri-
Analytical models used for wellbore- assumed in this work. If the magnitudes of terion are the most commonly used hy-
stability analysis are also often associ- the three principal stresses and the direc- potheses for evaluating rock shear fail-
ated with uncertainties. Mathematical tion of one of the stresses are known, then ure. The von Mises condition considers
modeling algorithms only try to approxi- the stress state can be specified. The stress the three principal in-situ stresses as ac-
mate physical processes and are not true concentration is usually very high around tive participants in wellbore compressive
representations of the problems under the borehole wall. This effect decreases failure. Well planners frequently use the
study. The modelers should be aware of rapidly away from the hole. At a long dis- position of the stress state relative to the
the imprecision and limitations of these tance from the wellbore, the principal in- failure envelope as a yardstick for evalu-
physical models. Thus, output uncertain- situ stresses are undisturbed and lie along ating wellbore stability.
ty stems from the variations in input data their in-situ directions. The Mohr-Coulomb model for shear
failure neglects the intermediate principal
stress but captures the effect of the direc-
This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of
tional strengths of shales. The maximum
paper SPE 166788, Uncertainty Evaluation of Wellbore-Stability-Model Predictions, stress is the tangential stress, followed by
John Emeka Udegbunam, Bernt Sigve Aadny, SPE, and Kjell Kre Fjelde, SPE, the axial stress and the radial stress (well
University of Stavanger, prepared for the 2013 SPE/IADC Middle East Drilling pressure). This model predicts a mini-
Technology Conference and Exhibition, Dubai, 79 October. The paper has not been mum well pressure that can cause well-
peer reviewed. bore collapse in the direction of least in-

For a limited time, the complete paper is free to SPE members at www.spe.org/jpt.

JPT JANUARY 2014 91

WI166788.indd 91 12/12/13 1:46 PM

 situ stress. Wellbore collapse is a result of
shear failure of rock around a borehole.
To prevent this from occurring during
drilling, mud pressure must be such that
it will effectively carry the load caused by
the in-situ stresses around the wellbore.
Tensile Failure. Generally, rock for-
mations are weak in tension. In most
cases, the tensile strength of rock is set to
zero on the premise that drilling-induced
fractures initiate in flaws, joints, or pre-
existing fractures around the wellbore.
The analysis of tensile failure involves
application of the effective-stress concept.
This implies that a formation fails in ten-
sion when the least effective principal
stress exceeds the rock tensile strength.
Increase in a wellbore pressure will cause
the effective tangential stress to decrease.
The effective radial stress remains con-
stant, while the effective axial stress in-
creases. At a certain well pressure, the
value of the hoop stress becomes zero, and
a vertical fracture initiates as the stress
goes into tension. Thus, drilling-induced
fractures are associated with minimum
tangential stress. Critical fracture pres-
sure is the well pressure beyond which a
wellbore will fracture in tension.
Considering the two wellbore-
failure mechanisms, the absence of suffi-
cient well pressure capable of supporting
the load caused by high stress concen-
tration around the wellbore can lead to a
wellbore collapse, but an excessive mud
weight will cause borehole fracturing,
sometimes with a loss of drilling fluid
into the formation.
Wellbore-Stability Modeling
Both numerical simulators and analyti-
cal models are used for wellbore-stability
analyses. These tools do not provide accu-
rate descriptions of geological processes,
mainly because of limited human knowl-
edge of subsurface strata. However, on
the basis of geomechanical principles,
drilling engineers can estimate fracturing
and collapse pressures by use of mathe-
matical approximations, which describe
the relationships among input variables.
In this work, a vertical-well con-
figuration is considered. The formation
around the wellbore is assumed to be lin-
early elastic. Therefore, complex mate-
rial behavior such as nonlinear elastic-
ity or elastoplasticity is not treated. If an
inclined wellbore is assumed, the in-situ
92
WI166788.indd 92
stress field must reflect borehole inclina-
tion and direction.
Uncertainty in the Input Data
Measurement and interpretation errors
are the major causes of input-parameter
uncertainties. This section briefly pres-
ents some important parameters affect-
ing wellbore stability and their assumed
measurement or prediction uncertainties.
Pore pressure can be estimated with
direct measurements. For a very-low-
permeability rock such as shale, indirect
methods, which use drilling data and well
logs, are used. If a nonpermeable barrier
exists over an interval, a discontinuous
pore-pressure profile is expected. There-
fore, higher uncertainty is associated
with the indirect pore-pressure measure-
ments than with the direct estimations.
We have mentioned that the determi-
nation of the in-situ stress state is crucial
to wellbore-stability analyses; stress mag-
nitudes will ultimately affect the accuracy
of the model predictions. These should be
considered uncertain parameters because
there are no existing methods to measure
the stresses accurately. However, the in-
situ stresses can be estimated by use of
several methods. The overburden stress is
calculated by integrating the bulk density
of drilled cuttings over the depth interval,
with values obtained every 30 m. At great-
er depths, density or sonic logs are used
to estimate overburden stress.
The minimum horizontal stress can
be estimated with leakoff-test (LOT) data,
by interpreting the slope change (deviation
from linearity) on an LOT plot when pres-
sure drops after a mud pump is stopped. In
a relaxed depositional environment, equal
horizontal stresses are normally assumed.
The value of maximum horizontal stress
is more difficult to estimate with direct
methods. With the inversion technique, an
improved accuracy in the estimations of
both magnitude and direction of the two
horizontal stresses can be obtained. In
addition, the rock-mechanical properties
such as cohesive rock strength and rock-
friction angle are often derived from indi-
rect measurements by interpreting sonic
logs. There is higher uncertainty in the es-
timation of cohesive rock strength than in
the estimation of internal friction.
For a discussion of the example case
and simulation results, please see the
complete paper.
Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis is conducted to as-
certain input factors that are most re-
sponsible for output variability and
that require further research. A mod-
eler can thereby justify whether input-
parameter estimates are accurate enough
for a model to give reliable predictions. If
not, more work will be directed toward
improving the estimations of these un-
certain parameters.
The sensitivity analysis is required to
understand how the model predictions re-
spond to changes in input variables, there-
by complementing the analyses presented
so far in this work. This allows determi-
nation of the parameters that contribute
most to the cumulative uncertainties in
the critical fracture- and collapse-pressure
predictions. The results from the analyses
will be useful when calibrating the models
against offset-well data.
For a full discussion of the differen-
tial method used in this analysis, please
see the complete paper.
Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis. In
this analysis, the input parameter that
is considered uncertain assumes a prob-
ability distribution, while other param-
eters are treated as fixed factors. This is
done to quantify the individual contri-
bution of each parameter to the cumu-
lative output variances. The base-case
scenario, in which all the input data are
treated as random variables, serves as a
standard for measuring the degree of the
output variability caused by the uncer-
tainty in a given parameter. In the prob-
abilistic approach, only triangular distri-
bution will be considered.
In each run, both the uncertain pa-
rameter and fixed factors are applied in
the wellbore-stability models. The out-
puts, which follow a probability distri-
bution, are generated after 600,000
simulations. In the results, the fracture-
pressure distribution for the minimum-
horizontal-stress uncertainty has the
highest spread or variance compared
with other input parameters; therefore,
minimum horizontal stress is the most
influential factor. For the collapse pres-
sure, the sensitivity determined for the
cohesive rock strength shows that that
parameter is the most important input
factor responsible for the uncertainty in
the pressure. JPT
JPT JANUARY 2014
12/12/13 1:46 PM