Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144

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Ecological Indicators
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Ecological risk assessment of wetland ecosystems using Multi Criteria

Decision Making and Geographic Information System
B. Malekmohammadi , L. Rahimi Blouchi
Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Nowadays, wetlands are at risk from a wide range of stress factors. Practical application of wetland
Received 18 October 2013 ecological risk assessment will result in a better understanding of how physical, chemical, and biologi-
Received in revised form 25 January 2014 cal stressors impinge on wetlands and will provide a framework for prudent wetland management. An
Accepted 29 January 2014
important aspect of wetland management is to identify ecological risks affecting the area and to develop a
wetland-zoning map based on those risks. This study uses a process of ecological risk assessment (ERA) to
Keywords:
identify stress factors and responses within the framework of an ecosystem-based approach. All potential
Ecological risk assessment (ERA)
environmental factors, physical, chemical and biological need to be examined in context. This study aims
Risk factor
Risk zoning
to present a systematic methodology for risk assessment and zoning of wetland ecosystems. Initially,
Risk management the most important risks threatening wetlands are identied in an ecosystem-based approach. Endpoint
Iran Shadegan Wetland assessments are dened according to values and functions of the wetland and the ecological risks asso-
ciated with these endpoints are identied. In the characteristics step, risks are analyzed according to
severity, probability and a range of consequences. A Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method is
used to prioritize these risks on the basis of experts opinions. Geographic Information System (GIS) is
used to develop a zoning map with a combination of risk layers according to importance. Finally, manage-
ment strategies are proposed to deal with the risks. The proposed methodology was applied to Shadegan
International Wetland, located in southwestern Iran. This wetland is in the Montero list and is currently
threatened by various risks. According to the results, high-ranking potential risks and areas with different
levels of risk and management strategies were proposed for this wetland.
2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction The spread of urbanization and industrialization has escalated

Wetlands are one of the three major types of ecosystem on
the Earth; they are formed through the interaction of land and
water systems and provide an irreplaceable ecological service
as an ecosystem for human society (Zedler and Kercher, 2005;
Kim et al., 2011). Wetland ecosystems have an important role
in maintaining biological diversity, they are also important for
biochemical transformation, storage, production of living plants
and animals and for decomposition of organic materials (USEPA,
2002; Clarkson et al., 2003). Wetlands have been exposed to a
range of stress-causing alterations from activities such as dredging
and lling operations, hydrologic modications, pollutant runoff,
eutrophication, impoundment, and fragmentation by roads and
ditches (Klemas, 2011). These activities cause disruption to the
ecological balance of animal and biotic reservoirs in wetlands
(Ramsar Convention Secretariat, 2004).
Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 21 61113185; fax: +98 2166407719.
E-mail address: malekb@ut.ac.ir (B. Malekmohammadi).
wetland degradation in many parts of the world, in both devel-
oping and developed countries (Tiner, 1984; Holland et al., 1995;
Dahl, 2000; Ralph, 2003; Zedler and Kercher, 2005). Previous stud-
ies of wetland protection focused mainly on the functioning of
constructed wetlands, ecological water demands and vegetation
development (Spieles, 2005; Chen et al., 2009; Cui et al., 2009).
For different kinds of wetlands, changing environmental ow is
an important risk factor that needs to be considered when under-
taking ecological restoration and management of water resources
of basins (Yang and Mao, 2011). Agricultural use and industrial
production, pesticide residues, contamination of wetlands from
chemicals outlets, change in natural habitats, over exploitation
of natural resources, have caused potential risks to the wetland
ecosystems. There is a need for tools to assess the ecological condi-
tion of wetlands for a range of purposes, including Environmental
Impact Assessments (EIA), ecological reserve determinations and
the planning and monitoring of wetland management and rehabil-
itation outcomes (Kotze et al., 2012).
Recently, ecological risk assessment (ERA) has applied sev-
eral tools for modeling. Ecological modeling has been used in
other elds such as water quality modeling (Chau, 2007; Wu

1470-160X/$ see front matter 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.01.038
134 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144
and Chau, 2006; Muttil and Chau, 2006). ERA evaluates the like-
lihood of potential adverse effects on ecosystems as a result
of exposure to one or more stress factors (USEPA, 1992). Cur-
rently, ecosystem-oriented models of ERA have proved efcient
in evaluating structural and functional responses within a vari-
ety of ecosystems to enable better environmental management
(Christian et al., 2009; Chen et al., 2010, 2011). Applications of
ERA include assessments that range from screening-level (qualita-
tive) to detailed (quantitative) or a combination of both (i.e. tiered
ERA); predictive to retrospective in temporal scale; local to global
in spatial scale; and single threat to multiple threats (USEPA, 1998;
Burgman, 2005). ERA involves examining an areas environmen-
tal conditions by means of environmental risk assessment analyses
that consider various aspects of the hazards as well as the vulnera-
bility and specic environmental values of the studied area under
(Heller, 2006).
ERA of wetlands involves estimating potential hazards or threats
posed by stressors (chemical, physical, or biological) to biotic
and/or abiotic components of the wetland. This assessment forms
the information base that drives important environmental man-
agement decisions on a local, national, and international levels
worldwide. Practical application of this tool will result in a better
understanding of how physical, chemical, and biological stressors
impinge on wetlands and will provide a framework for prudent
wetland management. An important aspect of wetland manage-
ment is to identify ecological risks affecting the area and to develop
a wetland-zoning map based on those risks. Wetlands can be
viewed as complex temporal and spatial mosaics of habitats with
distinct structural and functional characteristics. Because of the
unique characteristics of wetlands the key stressors and receptors
in the wetlands under study should be clearly identied and, if
necessary, prioritized in order to guide the risk assessment pro-
cess. Risk characterization requires an understanding of the major
external and internal factors regulating the operational conditions
of a wetland. Furthermore, an ecosystem-based approach involves
determining links between these factors and identifying the way in
which stress factors affect the wetland.
Lemly (1997) examined the ERA of wetlands as a managerial
tool. The study developed an ecosystem-based approach toward
risk assessment in freshwater wetlands. Suter (2000) presented
an argument for developing generic assessment endpoints in ERA
that measured the ecological characteristics essential for protection
against risks by quantication, measurement and modeling. Kellett
et al. (2005) provided an analysis of ERA workshops for wetlands
of the Lower Burdekin, and recommended strategies for the exe-
cution of ERA for irrigation planning and assessment. Hanson et al.
(2008) evaluated ecological functions of the wetlands. This project
demonstrated that assessment of wetland functions provides key
information for wetland environmental assessment.
Wang and Cheng (2011) applied ERA in zoning of the Baiyang-
dian Basin in China. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) and
Remote Sensing (RS) technology, a region-wide environmental risk
visualization was produced that enhanced the effectiveness of envi-
ronmental risk management. Zhang and Huang (2011) employed
a GIS-based multi-criteria method to evaluate potential nitrogen
loss at the basin level, and applied the model to the Huai River
Basin. The results helped to examine the complex responses of wet-
land systems to changes in land use under different socio-economic
circumstances.
A review of previous ERA studies reveals that the most recent
studies have used structural features and functions of wetlands
as valuable and important ecological features. Chen et al. (2013)
reviewed state-of-the-art models that were developed for ERA and
presented a system-oriented perspective for holistic risk evalua-
tion and management. They concluded that assessing ecological
risk with system-based models at different levels of organization
in a combined way, presents an evolutionary step for application
of risk evaluation in environmental management.
This study presents a systematic methodology in an ERA for wet-
land ecosystems to identify stresses and responses. The method
used in this study applies all physical, chemical and biological
stress factors affecting the environment in a semi-quantitative risk
assessment approach. For this purpose, the most important envi-
ronmental risks are identied. In the characteristics step, risks are
analyzed according to severity, probability and range of conse-
quence. These indicators are then used to determine scope and
extent of each risk. The determinations of proposed measures to
be applied in environmental control were made from gathering
experts opinions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to
prioritize risks. A zoning map of risks threatening the wetland is
developed using GIS. This map identies wetland parts according to
level of risk to achieve optimum planning with an ecosystem-based
approach. Finally, management strategies are proposed to deal with
these risks. The methodology has been subsequently applied to
Shadegan International Wetland, located in the southwest of Iran.
This wetland is in the Montero list and is now threatened by various
factors.
2. Methodology
A framework was developed for assessing the ecological risks
for wetland areas using a semi-quantitative approach. Semi-
quantitative methods are used to describe the relative risk scale.
For example, risks can be classied into categories like very low
low, moderate, high and very high. In a semi-quantitative
approach, different scales are used to characterize the likelihood
of adverse events and their consequences. Analyzed probabilities
and their consequences do not require accurate mathematical data
(Radu, 2009). In semi-quantitative methods, risk indicators and val-
ues are determined according to information on real available data
as well as using judgments made by experts. Fig. 1 presents a struc-
tural illustration of the methodology applied to wetland ecological
risk assessment. This structure was formed with a combination of
risk assessment technique, the AHP method and the GIS tool. The
method was according to the following steps:
Step 1: Identication of ecological endpoints and ecological risks
associated with these endpoints. In order to set the ecolog-
ical endpoints, according to the International Conversation
Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) booklet (Dugan,
1990), the most important wetland values and functions
and the main related endpoints are identied. Assessment
endpoints are the functions and associated values that need
to be protected, enhanced, or created through risk man-
agement (Lemly, 1997). The focus of ecological endpoint
assessment is to determine ecological endpoints that are
threatened (Pastorok et al., 2002).
Step 2: Risk characterization step. In this step risks are analyzed
according to severity, probability and consequence. A risk
index is calculated by analyzing severity, exposure and
probability (SEP) in a semi-quantitative approach with Eq.
(1).
Risk = Probability of the risk range of consequences
of risk severity of the risk (1)
In Tables 14, severity, probability, range of conse-
quences and range of risks are classied from very low
to very high with scoring according to that taken from a
review of related literature, engineering judgments and
information gathered from brainstorming sessions with
 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144 135

Fig. 1. Framework of the methodology in the wetland ecological risk assessment.

Table 1 Table 2
Classication and scoring of the severity in the wetland ecological risk assessment. Classifying range of the consequences in the wetland ecological risk assessment.

Expected consequence Scores range Class Wetland exposed area (portion of total area) Class

Destroying the integrity and 1513 Very high (5) All of the wetland and the surrounding ecosystems Very high (5)
existence (5) Three quarter () High (4)
Changes in the hydrological 1210 High (4) Half () Moderate (3)
balance and regime (4) One quarter () Low (2)
Disruption of the biological 97 Moderate (3) Less than one quarter () Very low (1)
balances (3)
Changes in physical and 64 Low (2)
chemical parameters (2) Table 3
Disruption of the <4 Very low (1) Classifying of the probability in the wetland ecological risk assessment.
biogeochemical cycles (1)
Expected probability The likelihood of the Class
consequence

Certain (risks occur Very likely Very high (5)

a group of experts. The determined environmental risks
continuously)
are given a score for severity by applying an assessment Common (risks occur Greater than 50% High (4)
of consequences of each potential risk. Expected conse- usually)
quences are identied through assessment of the ecological Possible (risks may occur Equal to 50% Moderate (3)
endpoints. In Table 1, classication and scoring of the sever- from existing risks)
Likely, but are low Unlikely under normal Low (2)
ity of wetland risks are developed by cumulative impact
conditions
assessment of consequences in the wetland. Summation of Likely, but are very low Impossible or remote Very low (1)
numbers in the rst column is equal to 15. Classes of sever- under normal
ity are ranked from very high (5) to very low (1) and each conditions
class is assigned a score up to 15.
Scores evaluating the consequences of each risk are per-
formed by identifying the wetland area exposed to the risk. as an evaluation of each risk. Table 4 presents the range,
In Table 2, classication range of consequences of risks is classication and description of risks.
done according to the wetland areas that are affected by Step 3: After identifying risks, they are prioritized on the basis
the risks. The probability of a wetland ecological risk is of their importance. This can be done according to the
classied according to probability of the expected conse- classication of severity, probability and consequences
quence (Table 3). By applying Eq. (1), amounts are given of the risk. These criteria should be valued in risk
136 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144

Table 4 priority scales (Saaty, 2008). In this study, AHP is utilized. A

Classication and description of the risks in the wetland ecological risk assessment.
hierarchical structure of a target is used to nd important
Risk range Classication Description weights for each wetland ecological risk. Pair-wise com-
125101 Very high Unacceptable parison matrixes in AHP are used to weight the indexes
10076 High Unacceptable and options of the risks based on experts opinions. Risk
7551 Moderate Acceptance with prioritizing has been used to make proposals for correc-
conditional control tive action to reduce risks. It should be noted that other
5026 Low Acceptable
methods such as ELECTRE, MAUT, PROMETHEE can also
<26 Very low Negligible
be applied in ERA for wetlands. Each of them has their
advantages and disadvantages as evident from a series of
assessment according to degree of importance and inu- regular debates in prominent journals. The advantages of
ence. Multi-criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is used to AHP over other multi-criteria methods, as often cited by
prioritize risks and effective indicators to estimate risk its proponents, are its exibility, intuitive appeal to the
levels. MCDM were applied in different EIA and ERA decision-makers or experts, and its ability to check the
studies such as Zhao et al. (2006) and Zhang et al. inconsistencies in judgments (Saaty, 2000). AHP helps to
(2009). MCDM is a class of decision-making methodol- elicit the complex judgments of different experts in a com-
ogy based on the premise of assisting a decision-maker mon platform. It also ensures accuracy in the sense that it
through the decision process via explicit formalized models has an inbuilt method to check the inconsistency of judg-
(Figueria et al., 2005). Belton and Stewart (2002) and Kiker ments. This ensures that the judgments are provided only
et al. (2005) presented a review of the available literature with sufcient care and the error due to negligence is thus
and provide some recommendations for applying different minimized (Ramanathan, 2001).
MCDM techniques. These include the AHP, ELimination and Step 4: All risk factors must be spatially modeled, they need to
Choice Expressing the REality (ELECTRE), Multi Attribute appear on the map as points, lines, polygons or raster mod-
Utility Theory (MAUT), Preference Ranking Organization els. Man-made landscape features such as agricultural and
METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), and urbanized areas, tourism zones and hotels, roads, industrial
various combinations of these methods. areas, also surrogate indicators such as population density
AHP is a theory of measurement through pairwise com- can be included as human impacts and these are deter-
parisons that relies on the judgments of experts to derive mined by experts and used as risk factors. The combination

Fig. 2. Location and specication of the Shadegan Wetland and related basin in Iran.
 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144 137

of risk elements and their assigned risk parameters may Table 5

Different regions of the Shadegan Wetland (Pandam Consulting Engineers, 2002).
vary for each habitat in order to account for the different
ways in which human activities impact on biodiversity in Shadegan Wetland Total Wildlife Refuge
each realm (McPherson. et al, 2008). Wetland zoning is used zones
as a management strategy done to identify areas with high- Area (ha) Percent Area (ha) Percent
ranking risk. GIS evaluates the ecological risks of human
Freshwater 120,378 22.4 75,310 23
activities and natural disasters, which are the main factors Tidal 222,252 41.3 252,455 77
that contribute to change on wetland ecological indexes. Coastal (Mosa 115,978 21.6
Using the GIS tool, the zoned wetland risk map is developed. estuary)
Information layers are required for the main risk factors. Other and marginal 79,123 14.7
lands
These layers are overlaid according to the weights obtained Total 537,731 100 327,765 100
from AHP. Weights are assigned to the layers using the
Raster Calculator in Spatial Analyst functions and weighted
linear combination (WLC) is used to overlay the weights. (3) The coastal zone or saltwater wetland, which includes the Per-
WLC is one of the most widely used methods of Multi- sian Gulf coastline to at the water depth of 6 m. The Mosa
Criteria Evaluation (MCE) for analysis of land suitability. estuary and several small islands are also in this area.
It involves standardization of suitability maps, assigning
weights of relative importance to the maps, and combin- Wetland vegetation is a vital characteristic of such an environ-
ing weights and standardized suitability maps to obtain an ment, it is important in terms of sustainability of the ecological
overall suitability score (Malczewski, 2004). WLC analysis and economic values of the wetland. The Shadegan Wetland, in
was based on Eq. (2). addition to its global value was granted status as Wildlife Refuge
 by the Iran Department of Environment. Table 5 presents fresh-
S= Wi Xi (2) water and tidal zones of the Wildlife Refuge areas in the wetland.
The most signicant human activities affecting the Shadegan Wet-
where S is the zoning map of the wetland, Wi is the weight of
land are those of dam construction and irrigation projects in the
layer i obtained from AHP, and Xi is the standard raster layer
Jarahi catchment, oil and gas platforms, industrial projects, infra-
i. According to the zoning map, area zones with different
structure projects, exploitation of wetland resources and tourism.
levels of risk are determined.
Recently, human activities such as water pollution, indiscrimi-
Step 5: Finally, risk management strategies will be provided for
nate exploitation of biological products of the wetland, drought
high-risk zones. The most effective risk management
and change in natural habitats have directly or indirectly affected
strategies are presented within wetland basin, because
the wetland functions (Rahimi Blouchi, 2012). This wetland is
wetlands are associated and interacted with upstream and
in the Montero list and is now threatened by several risks.
downstream processes.
Despite its unique values, this wetland is now far removed from

3. Study area (Shadegan International Wetland, Iran)

Table 6
Assessment of ecosystem functions and values of Shadegan Wetland (Behan Dam
Shadegan International Wetland is located in southwestern Iran, Consulting Engineers, 2010, according to IUCN booklet, Dugan, 1990).
in Khuzestan Province, between 48 20 49 20 E longitude and
Function Values Statues of
30 50 31 00 N latitude. Fig. 2 shows the geographical location
values in
and specication of the study area. The cities of Ahwaz, Abadan, Shadegan
Mahshahr and Shadegan are the main population centers around Wetlanda
the wetland. This wetland is located in the Jarahi River Delta with Hydrologic ux and Groundwater recharge 
very at land and low-gradient plains topography. The Jarahi basin storage Groundwater discharge 
is located in southwestern Iran and southern parts of the Zagros Flood control and protection
Mountain Range. The basin area is about 24,310 km2 . The Shadegan Water supply 

Wetland is about 537,731 ha, of which almost 61% is protected as a Biological productivity Food storage 
Wildlife Refuge (Environmental Protection Agency of Iran, 2010). Forest resource 
Wildlife resources 
This natural wetland has important hydrological, biological and
Aquatic 
ecological signicance in terms of maintaining normal functions of Forage resources
the basin and coastal system. There are more than 100,000 water Agricultural resources
bird species with ve of the worlds rare species of bird in this Historical and cultural 
wetland. The unique diversity of this wetland includes plant and resources

animal species specic to freshwater, brakish and saltwater envi- Biogeochemical cycling Stabilize the shoreline/erosion 
ronments. Specications of different parts of the Shadegan Wetland and storage control
are given in Table 5 (Pandam Consulting Engineers, 2002; Shadegan Sediment control/toxic 
materials
City Department of Environment, 2010). As can be seen in Fig. 2 and Protection from storm/wind
Table 5, the Shadegan Wetland consists of three distinct parts: break
Wastewater treatment 
(1) A freshwater zone, which is located in the upper part of the wet- Water quality 

land. This area is fed by the Jarahi River and has lush vegetation Community/wildlife Biodiversity 
cover. habitat (ecological) Tourism/recreation
Preservation of ora and fauna 
(2) A tidal zone, which is located in the southern part of the wet-
(refuge)
land (downstream of the Abadan-Mahshahr highway). The area Threatened, rare, and 
is inuenced by the tides of the Persian Gulf and involves multi- endangered species
ple waterways (estuaries). Upstream freshwater is mixed with a
() absent or exceptional, () present, () common and important value of
downstream saltwater as freshwater passes through the land. wetland.
138 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144
Table 7
Characteristics of the risk factors in Shadegan Wetland.
Risk factor Harmful potential effects
Drought/low water - Reduction in productivity and
occurrence survival of the wetland
- Reduction of hydrological
stability
High temperature and high - Increase of chemical and
evaporation biological functions rates
- Reduction in species richness
Salinity of wetland water - Reduces denitrication,
biological uptake and
photosynthesis
- Diminishes species richness
Sedimentation and lling - Depresses biological uptake,
processing and photosynthesis
- Diminishes species richness
- Reduces groundwater
recharge
- Changes in sediment particle
size
Over exploitation of - Increases erosion potential
natural resources - Establishment of invasive
species
- Reduces the interception,
condensation, evaporation and
surface roughness - Reduces
sediment stabilization
Entrance of agricultural - Short-term: increases
and livestock wastewater productivity
- Long-term: encourages
invasive species, decreases
species
Entrance of industrial - Reduces diversity and
wastewater production
- Enhances adsorption of some
chemicals
- Eutrophication
Entrance of rural and urban - Diminishes habitat suitability
waste water - Reduces photo-oxidation and
increases denitrication rate
Oil pollution - Biological magnication
- Soil pollution and
contamination of groundwater
Change in ow regime - Reduces in water inow
- Reduces in water ow
purication
Change in natural habitats - Reduces groundwater
recharge
- Increases evapotranspiration
- Increases concentration of
inorganic
Road construction - Reduces biodiversity
- Disturbing hydrological ows
- Reduces the water quality
- Habitat loss
its natural condition. This study aimed to identify and man-
age the most stress inducing risks that threaten the wetland
and to maintain its ecological balance and to protect the study
area.
4. Results and discussion
Prior to modeling an ERA, it is important to identify previously
developed information for the wetland under consideration in the
study. Information from aerial photographs, historical maps and
Receivers Range of consequences
- All organisms in the soil and All of the wetland and the
aquatic life surrounding ecosystems
- Humans dependent to
wetland
All organisms in aquatic life Freshwater zone
All organisms in the soil and - Freshwater zone
aquatic life - Tidal zones in the south of
Abadan Mahshahr road
All organisms in the soil and Freshwater zone (sediment
aquatic life entrance from the northern
rivers)
Organisms dependent to - Freshwater zone (The vicinity
natural resources villages)
- Northeastern Wildlife Refuge
- All organisms in the soil and Freshwater zone (from
aquatic life northern part)
- Humans dependent to
wetland
- All organisms in the soil and Freshwater and tidal zones
aquatic life (from industries on the north
- Humans dependent to and northwest)
wetland
- All organisms in the soil and Freshwater and tidal zones
aquatic life (from central and southwest)
- Humans dependent to
wetland
- All organisms in the soil and - Northern boundary of the
aquatic life Wildlife Refuge
- Humans dependent to - A part of tidal zone in
wetland southern
- All organisms in the soil and Freshwater zone
aquatic life
- Humans dependent to
wetland
All organisms in the soil and All of the wetland and the
aquatic life in wetland surrounding ecosystems
All organisms in the soil and - Northern part
aquatic life in wetland - North of the Wildlife Refuge
land-use documents are useful for gaining an understanding of the
history and status of an area. It is also important to gain an under-
standing of the hydrologic and geologic forces affecting a wetland.
Understanding a wetlands function and determining its values is
an important part of ERA for wetlands. These functionvalue rela-
tionships provide an important conceptual framework that can
formulate the operations goals and objectives.
Application of ERA methodology on the Shadegan Wetland
rstly used important values and functions of Shadegan Wetland
to determine endpoints. Assessment of the Shadegan Wetland in
 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144 139

Table 8
Results of calculation of the risks in the Shadegan Wetland.

Risk factor Severity Range of Probability Risk level Importance Weighted Risk
conse- weight in risk ranking
quence AHP number

Drought/low water occurrence 4 5 3 60 0.064 3.84 9

High temperatures and high evaporation 2 2 5 20 0.090 1.8 12
Salinity of wetland water 4 3 5 60 0.061 3.66 10
Sedimentation and lling 5 2 4 40 0.056 2.24 11
Over exploitation of natural resources 4 3 5 60 0.098 5.88 5
Entrance of agricultural and livestock wastewater 4 3 5 60 0.072 4.32 8
Entrance of industrial wastewater 4 4 5 80 0.087 6.96 3
Entrance of rural and urban waste water 4 4 5 80 0.082 6.56 4
Oil pollution 4 3 5 60 0.089 5.34 6
Change in ow regime 4 5 4 80 0.099 7.92 2
Change in natural habitats 4 5 4 80 0.12 9.6 1
Road construction 4 3 5 60 0.082 4.92 7

terms of its ecosystem functions and values was done according
to the method cited in the IUCN booklet by Behan Dam Con-
sulting Engineers (Behan Dam Consulting Engineers, 2010). The
booklet includes eld studies and information on environmen-
tal characteristics of the wetland and this information was used
to complete the IUCN checklist for values of the Shadegan Wet-
land. Results of this assessment are presented in Table 6. Then,
the most important ecological endpoints were identied according
to these values and functions. All of the parameters (hydrological
and ecological) that were considered critical to long-term sus-
tainability of the wetland were considered as possible ecological
endpoints. Biogeochemical processes such as hydrological regime,
primary productivity (food web stability), biodiversity (abundance,
species richness), sensitive and natural habitats, integrity and
existence of wetland, were determined as the most important end-
points.
Risks and stressors imposed on Shadegan Wetland were iden-
tied in accordance with the ecological endpoints and shown in
Table 7. This table describes harmful potential effects, receivers
and the range of consequences for each risk factor. The most impor-
tant consequences of determined by evaluation of risk factors were
identied as destroying the integrity and existence of the wetland,
changes in its hydrological balance and regime, biological imbal-
ance, changes in physical and chemical parameters and disruption
of biogeochemical cycles of the wetland.
The risk factors threatening Shadegan Wetland were analyzed
according to step 2 of the methodology and are presented in Table 8.
The information shown in Table 7 was used to calculate severity,
probability and to determine the range of consequences for each
risk from the step that evaluated risk analysis. According to the
severity index, drought (low water occurrence), sedimentation and
over exploitation of plant resources of the wetland were evalu-
ated as having the greatest level of risk (very high). Also, factors of
high temperatures and high evaporation were evaluated as having
the lowest level of the risk. According to the consequence index,
drought, change in ow regime and change in the natural habi-
tat were evaluated as having the greatest amount of risk (very
high). In addition, factors of high temperatures and high evapo-
ration, gradual sedimentation and lling and over exploitation of
plant resources of the wetland were evaluated as having the lowest
level of risk (low). According to the probability index, almost all of
the stressors have continuous impact and as such are associated
with a very high level of risk.
Table 8 shows calculations of risk level based on Eq. (1). Results
of risk calculation for each of the risk factors show that almost all
of the risks were evaluated as having high and medium level risk.
Table 8 shows the industrial wastewater outlets, rural and urban
waste-water outlets, and changes in natural habitats that were had
the maximum degree of risk. Also, the lowest amounts of the risk
were calculated for factors of high temperatures and high evapora-
tion. Results of sensitivity analysis on the risk assessment values in
Table 8 show the evaluations for elimination of the criteria range
of consequence, probability, and severity that contribute to a
change in risk level of about 31.4, 22.4, 26 and risk ranking numbers
of about 91%, 41.7%, 8%, respectively. These evaluations show the
importance of considering these three criteria, especially that of

Fig. 3. Hierarchical structure of ecological risk assessment of Shadegan Wetland.

140 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144

Fig. 4. Risk zoning layers for risk factors in Shadegan Wetland. (a) High temperatures and high evaporation, (b) salinity, (c) over exploitation of biological resources, (d) water
pollution, and (e) change in natural habitat
 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144 141

Table 9
Percentages of categories in each layer in the ecological risk zoning of Shadegan Wetland.

Category of risk Risk factor

High temperatures and Salinity of Over exploitation of Water Change in natural Final zoning
high evaporation wetland water natural resources pollution habitats map

Very high 10.07 6.9 5.54 12 16.59 10.4

High 7.67 5.9 1.05 15 8.81 11.56
Moderate 6.37 6.22 2.25 33 5.87 14.88
Low 5.48 4.25 17.02 30 7.82 44.09
Very low 70.41 76.7 86.44 10 60.91 19.07

range of consequence in wetland ecological risk assessment. Also,
variation evaluations for these three criteria show changes of up
to 27% but evaluations for risk level and risk ranking number are
stable. These evaluations demonstrate an acceptable level of stabil-
ity in calculations of risk values in the proposed methodology for
wetland ecological risk assessment. Sensitivity analysis on impor-
tance of weights, based on average weights, shows that risk ranking
number is dependent on about 33.3% in terms of importance
weights.
A hierarchical structure of the ecological risks, according to the
indexes of the risks (severity, range of consequences and proba-
bility) is shown in Fig. 3. Information on experts opinions was
used to weight the criteria and alternatives of the risks through
Pairwise Comparison according to the hierarchical structure. In
this study, national experts were selected from different organi-
zations in the region. There was a lack of communication and
understanding between the wetland community and those doing
the risk assessment in the study region. It is essential that those
individuals that contribute to process of wetland ecological risk
assessment have a common understanding of some basic princi-
ples from both disciplines. Thus, access to experts with scientic
knowledge of the area was difcult in this particular case study. In
total, contributions from the opinions 15 experts were considered
and conrmed by the AHP Consistency Ratio. Five environmen-
talists, ve water resources experts, and ve agricultural experts
were used in brainstorming session and to answer a questionnaire.
Expert Choice software (www.expertchoice.com) was used for cal-
culations of AHP weights. Final weights of AHP for the risk factors
are presented in Table 8. Risk factors were prioritized by multi-
plying risk level and importance weight of each risk. Rankings of
risks are shown in the last column of Table 8, and represent the
priority of each risk factor, for the wetland. Based on these priori-
ties, change in natural habitat factor was high ranking factors and
sedimentation and lling factor was low ranking factors.

Fig. 5. Ecological risk zoning map for Shadegan Wetland.

142 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144

Table 10
Management strategies (control measures) for reducing effects of risk factors in Shadegan Wetland.

Risk factor Risk level Affected zone Management strategies (control

measures)

Category Rating

Change in natural habitats
High 1 All of the wetland and - Developing a legal regional
surrounding ecosystems binding guideline to prevent land
use changes
- Avoid or minimize wetland
disturbance by applying wetland
setback regulation

Change in ow regime High 2 Freshwater zone - Allocating the minimum of water

rights
- Restricting unauthorized
exploitation of the rivers,
especially in drought periods
- Implementation of integrated
water resources management at
the Jarahi basin

Entrance of industrial High 3 Freshwater and tidal zones - Industrial wastewater treatment
wastewater - Continuous monitoring of
wetland water quality and
applying water quality standards

Entrance of rural and urban High 4 Freshwater and tidal zones - Keeping the canebrakes in the
wastewater entrance

Over exploitation of natural Medium 5 Freshwater zone and - Identifying the capacity of grazing
resources Northeastern of Wildlife and harvesting of hays and straws
Refuge - Establishing buffer strips for
arable lands
- Developing wetland operation
guidelines

Oil pollution Medium 6 Northern boundary of the - Insulating the oil transfer pipes
Wildlife Refuge and a part of
tidal zone

Road construction Medium 7 North part of wetland and - Constructing culverts

north of the Wildlife Refuge - Maintaining the wetland habitat
corridors

Entrance of agricultural and Medium 8 Freshwater zone - Controlling the time and amount
livestock wastewater of using agricultural materials

Drought/low water occurrence Medium 9 All of the wetland and - Designing a drought monitoring
surrounding ecosystems network in the Jarahi Basin

Salinity of wetland water Medium 10 Freshwater and tidal zones - Usage of halophyte plants
- Transfer of agro-industrial
complexes of saline drainage water
to Persian Gulf (at 6 m depth of sea)

Table 8 shows changes in natural habitats, changes in upstream
ow regimes (such as dam building in the catchment of Jarahi),
industrial wastewater outlets, rural and urban wastewater outlets,
over exploitation of natural resources of the wetland, oil pollution,
agricultural and livestock wastewater outlets, road construction in
and around the wetland, and drought occurrence in recent years
were determined as the main risks threatening the Shadegan Wet-
land respectively.
Based on the importance of risk factors and available infor-
mation, ve layers were selected for consideration in wetland
ecological risk zoning. Change in natural habitat, water pollution
(by wastewater outlets), over exploitation of biological resources,
salinity of wetland water, and high temperature and high evapora-
tion are the layers that were developed in ecological risk zoning.
Wetland risk-zoning layers were produced using spatial analyst
tools in Arc-GIS 9.3 software (Environmental Systems Research
Institute ESRI, 2008). Each layer was reviewed, classied and ranked
according to the degree of threat that was considered for each in
relation to the habitat or species in question. Data in the past 10
years were used for developing the layers. These layers are pre-
sented in Fig. 4 and explained according to the following:
(1) High temperature and high evaporation (Fig. 4a): due to high
temperature, the greatest inuence was on the shallow parts of
the wetland. To produce this layer, water depth in the freshwa-
ter zone was used as an index. Water depth in different parts of
the wetland varied from a few centimeters to about 3 m. Zon-
ing of the wetland was done with regards to the adverse effects
of high temperature on wetland ora and fauna. Shallow parts
were determined as having a high level of risk and the deep
parts with lower levels.
(2) Salinity of wetland water (Fig. 4b): This map was produced from
data on electrical conductivity of wetland water in the fresh-
water zone. Electrical conductivity changed at different parts
of the wetland water ranging from 1.4 to 21 dS/m. Those parts
with high salinity were considered as high risk and vice versa.
(3) Over exploitation of natural resources (Fig. 4c): the likely extent
of impact of the over exploitation are considered as zoning
criteria. The buffer extension in GIS software was used to pro-
duce this map. The inuence of distance for direct and indirect
impacts was considered at 50 and 2000 m, respectively. In loca-
tions that had been over exploited, distance of the buffer zone
increased from the centers of points, lines or polygons. Areas
 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144
with risk level ranked as very high and high were those of fresh-
water wetland in the vicinity of villages due to road access roads
in those areas.
(4) Water pollution (Fig. 4d): Data on source pollution and entrance
points to the wetland were used to develop this layer. The main
sources of water pollution were those of upstream irrigation
development projects, the sugar cane industry in the northern
part of wetland, petrochemical activity in Mahshahr, shipping,
carbon and steel industries in Ahvaz, Maroon desalination,
wastewater from surrounding cities and villages in the east
area of freshwater wetland and burst pipes that leaked oil into
the wetland. Wastewater outlets from agricultural and live-
stock farms, industrial, rural and urban areas, and oil pollution
were considered in this layer. Due to lack of data on amounts
of pollution concentrations in the wetland, sources of pollu-
tion and their relative entrance points; these values were rated
according to experts opinions, judgments of engineers and
information collected from eld studies. Industrial pollution,
rural and urban pollution, oil pollution, agricultural and live-
stock pollution and other pollutions were rated as very high,
high, moderate, low, and very low, respectively. The Spatial
Analyst interpolation was used in GIS software to produce this
layer. The Spatial Analyst interpolation was used in GIS software
to produce this layer.
(5) Change in natural habitat (Fig. 4e): This layer was prepared
from a map of existing land-use in the wetland. Zoning was
done according to the inuence distance of change in land-use.
The inuence distance was determined as the spatial extent
or footprint of change in the natural habitat on the wetland
and represents the maximum distance at which a feature has
a negative impact on the wetland. For example, adverse effects
of roads within the wetlands ecological range were considered
to have a range of impact extending to 1000 m (Forman et al.,
2003). The inuence distances for direct and indirect impacts
were considered as 200 and 1000 m, respectively. The buffer
extension was used in GIS software to produce this map. The
zones that were evaluated as having very high and high levels
of risk were in areas disturbed by human activities.
Percentage of categories in each layer that were used for ecolog-
ical risk zoning of the Shadegan Wetland are given in Table 9. Based
on Step 4 of the methodology, by applying importance weights from
Table 8, the nal ecological risk-zoning map of the Shadegan Wet-
land was produced and is shown in Fig. 5. As can be seen in this
gure, the area that was evaluated with the least risk was that of
the southern wetland in the saltwater area, probably because it
was a pristine environment inaccessible to humans. Evaluations
determined the area most at risk was the northern area of the wet-
land, a freshwater area with access roads that facilitated of human
access to the wetland. This map enables decision makers and envi-
ronmental planners to regulate human activities in and around the
wetland.
Results of sensitivity analysis on the nal risk-zoning map show
that classication of the nal risk-zoning map did not change
with variation of important weights of up to 30% change, on
these weights. These results show acceptable stability in classi-
cation of risk-zoning layers. In addition, the nal risk-zoning map
was sensitive to the elimination of each layer and more sensitiv-
ity was observed for elimination of the layer representing over
exploitation. Based on the results of risk analysis and the ecologi-
cal risk-zoning map, strategies to manage and reduce the ecological
risks of Shadegan Wetland are abstracted in Table 10. The proposed
management strategies for the wetland were determined by the
above-mentioned ecosystem-based approach. In Table 10, risk fac-
tors were ordered according to the ranking number of each risk
143
from Table 8. Zones relating to each risk factor are described with
regards to the risk-zone maps.
5. Conclusions
Development projects such as road construction, thermal power
plants, transmission lines, oil and petrochemicals and factories
threaten the life of wetlands. In order to protect and manage
wetlands in a sustainable way, it is necessary to reduce ecologi-
cal risks that impact on the wetlands. The best approach toward
applying ERA in wetland studies is ecosystem-based management.
In this study, an ecosystem-based approach was considered to
present a methodology for identifying and characterizing risks and
to develop management strategies. Experts opinions were used to
prioritize risks according to the AHP. A zoning map of the risks that
threaten the wetland was developed using GIS.
Risk zoning is an important measure in environmental risk man-
agement. It involves dividing an area into sub-areas according to
general risk characteristics. Identifying the similarities and differ-
ences of risk factors between sub-areas by making comparisons
between sub-areas can help to determine the most appropriate
environmental risk management policies. The GIS that was used in
this article constitutes a powerful tool for decision-makers in con-
servation to establish preferences, which need to identify human
activities in terms of spatial interactions and other factors that
inuence the health and viability of critical habitats and key species
in a wetland.
ERA can provide a description of the actual situation of ecolog-
ical, health status or risks that threaten wetlands. The presented
methodology can be redeveloped to apply to different types of
wetlands to identify and manage the risks. This method focuses
on identication of wetland endpoints and conservation of values
associated with these endpoints. This target is obtained by iden-
tication of hazards/threats to values of the wetland endpoints.
Results of this study for Shadegan Wetland reveal that the stress-
ors inicted on the environment of this wetland causes adverse
effects on characteristics of the wetland. Alteration in natural habi-
tats, changes in the water balance of wetland, water pollution,
over exploitation of biological resources, and drought are the main
stressors of this wetland. All of these factors are interrelated and
due to the complexity of wetland ecosystems, it is difcult to sep-
arate the effects and consequences of these factors.
For Shadegan Wetland, management strategies are suggested on
the basis of the results of this research. Preventing change in wet-
land land-use, providing sufcient water for the wetland, ensuring
water quality of the wetland, protecting biodiversity, sustainable
use of wetland resources, increasing awareness of wetland values
and threats, and promoting public participation are the main goals
of the proposed strategies. Most threats in the study area were
found to be in the northern region and in areas of freshwater that be
attributed to the existence of access roads in such areas that facil-
itate increased human access to the wetland. The lowest risk zone
was identied in the southern part of the wetland in a saltwater
region that is a pristine environment inaccessible to humans.
The key stressors and receptors in a wetland under consider-
ation must be clearly identied in order to make properly targeted
risk assessment and to provide useful data. However it is very dif-
cult to assess and determine the threshold of permitted reserves
of these resources and to identify stress factors in those wetlands,
in which potential reserves of biological components do not have
any scientic data or documentation. Further development of the
proposed methodology can focus on risk assessment of wetland
functions to manage the activities that reduce capacity of the wet-
land ecosystem. Assessment of wetland functions through standard
quantitative risk assessment can be used to restore wetlands and
144 B. Malekmohammadi, L. Rahimi Blouchi / Ecological Indicators 41 (2014) 133144
to improve environmental assessment programs. Quantitative risk
assessment of wetlands can focus on chemical substances (such as
nutrients and contaminants) by only incorporating assessments of
toxicity. In this kind of assessment, indicators such as pollution con-
centration at outlet points and diffusion in a wetland, the impact
of wastewater on the food chain, and concentrations of metals or
other pollutants in soil and water are used for making assessments.
It should be noted that this study has examined major risk factors
of environmental impacts on the wetland but cumulative impacts
of these risk factors have not been considered. Clearly, more work
needs to be done on the development of a holistic environmental
risk assessment for wetlands that includes qualitative and quanti-
tative risk assessment approaches.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers,
for their constructive comments on correction and improvement of
the manuscript. Contributions by Ms. Azadeh Zarkar, Ph.D. student
of the University of Tehran are hereby acknowledged.
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