Provincial Employment Monitor TD Economics

www.td.com/economics

August 6, 2010

HIGHLIGHTS

• The Canadian labour market shed 9,000 jobs in
July, deceiving analyst expectations calling for a
gain of 12,500 jobs. Jobs in full-time employment
recorded a large decline (-139,000). These losses
were, nonetheless, largely offset by gains in part-time
employment (+130,000). July’s performance led to a
10 basis point uptick in the unemployment rate, which
reached 8.0%.
• Quebec experienced a considerable loss of 21,000
jobs in July, representing the most notable decline
in 12 months. This induced a 40 basis points rise in
the unemployment rate to reach 8.2%. Relative to the
national trough level reached in July 2009, employment
has risen by 2.5% or 20 basis points in excess of the
national average of 2.3%.
• On the flipside, British Columbia posted a notable gain
of 16,000 jobs in July, leading to a 30 basis point decline
in the unemployment rate to reach 7.5%. Relative to July
2009, employment has grown by 3.0%, the third fastest
growth rate among the provinces.
• Alberta maintained employment gains for a fourth
consecutive month, up by 9,000 jobs. This brought the
unemployment rate down by 40 basis points to 6.3%,
the lowest recorded since April 2009. Employment in
Alberta has rebounded by 1.2% relative to July 2009,
a figure that is well below the national average gain of
2.3%.
• Ontario’s employment performance deteriorated in July
with some 15,000 jobs being lost. The unemployment
rate consequently edged up by 20 basis points to reach
8.5%. Relative to July 2009, employment has risen at
a healthy clip of 2.6%.
• Two more provinces joined the “green light club”
with employment levels above their pre-recessionary
peak. 6 out of the 10 provinces have now reached
employment levels which are in excess of the national
peak level reached in October 2008. At the national
level, employment remains, however, 24,000 jobs shy
of this peak.
• Factors such as Canada’s recent deceleration in
economic activity and persisting uncertainty regarding
the strength of the global economic recovery will temper
growth in employment in the months ahead. In such an
environment, many employers may be first prompted to
increase average weekly hours worked rather than to
increase hiring. In light of this, we expect only moderate
job creation of 15,000 in the months ahead.
Shahrzad Fard, Economist
416-944-5729

TD ECONOMICS - NATIONAL & PROVINCIAL LABOUR MARKET TRACKER

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT
Per cent of labour force Change Change (%)
period Oct-08 Jul-10 Jul-10 Jul-10
M/M M/M 3-m From peak * From trough** Peak-to-trough^ From peak* From trough**
CANADA 6.2 8.0 -9,300 36,200 -23,700 393,700 -2.4 -0.1 2.3
British Columbia 5.1 7.5 16,300 4,200 6,500 67,100 -2.6 0.3 3.0
Alberta 3.5 6.3 8,800 9,733 -35,400 24,000 -2.9 -1.7 1.2
Saskatchewan 3.7 5.1 -2,100 -600 4,800 7,300 -0.5 0.9 1.4
Manitoba 4.2 5.6 -100 533 12,700 12,700 0.0 2.1 2.1
Ontario 6.6 8.5 -15,000 21,000 -37,800 171,800 -3.1 -0.6 2.6
Québec 7.3 8.2 -20,900 1,400 28,100 95,600 -1.7 0.7 2.5
New Brunswick 8.9 9.0 1,400 -1,433 -5,600 -2,100 -0.9 -1.5 -0.6
Nova Scotia 7.5 9.3 500 1,467 -100 7,700 -1.7 0.0 1.7
Prince Edward Island 11.1 10.8 800 -267 2,400 2,500 -0.1 3.5 3.6
Newfoundland & Labrador 13.6 15.0 1,000 167 700 7,100 -2.9 0.3 3.3
* Cumulative change in overall employment since most recent national peak (Oct. 2008).
** Cumulative change in overall employment since national trough (July 2009).
^ Peak-to-trough per cent change in latest recession (Q4:08-Q2-09).
Highlighted regions in green denote cumulative employment gains in excess of national peak reached in October 2008.
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. Haver Analytics.
 Provincial Employment Monitor TD Economics
August 6, 2010 2
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