The ability of a product, part, or system to perform its

intended function under a prescribed set of conditions

Reliability is expressed as a probability:
The probability that the product or system will function
when activated
The probability that the product or system will function for a
given length of time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6Aqf_Tea6U
 Finding the probability under the assumption that the
system consists of a number of independent
components
Requires the use of probabilities for independent events
Independent event
Events whose occurrence or non-occurrence do not influence one
another
Rule 1: If two or more events are independent and success is defined as the
probability that all of the events occur, then the probability of success is
equal to the product of the probabilities of the events

Ex: A machine has two buttons. In order for the machine to

function, both buttons must work. One button has a
probability of working of .95, and the second button has a
probability of working of .88.
P(Machine Works) P(Button 1 Works) P(Button 2 Works)
.95 .88
.836 Button 1 Button 2
.95 .88
Rule 2: If two events are independent and success is defined as the
probability that at least one of the events will occur, the probability of
success is equal to the probability of either one plus 1.00 minus that
probability multiplied by the other probability

Ex: A restaurant located in area that has frequent power outages has a
generator to run its refrigeration equipment in case of a power failure. The
local power company has a reliability of .97, and the generator has a
reliability of .90. The probability that the restaurant will have power is

P(Power) P(Power Co.) (1- P(Power Co.)) P(Generator) Generator

.97 (1- .97)(.90) .90
.997

Power Co.
.97
Rule 3: If two or more events are involved and success is defined as the
probability that at least one of them occurs, the probability of success is 1
- P(all fail).
Ex: A student takes three calculators (with reliabilities of .85, .80, and .75)
to her exam. Only one of them needs to function for her to be able to
finish the exam. What is the probability that she will have a functioning
calculator to use when taking her exam?
Calc. 3
.75
P(any Calc.) 1 [(1- P(Calc. 1) (1 P(Calc. 2) (1 P(Calc. 3)]
1 [(1- .85)(1- .80)(1- .75)]
Calc. 2
.9925
.80

Calc. 1
.85
P(no failure before T ) e T / MTBF f(T)

P(failure before T ) 1 e T / MTBF

where e 2.7183...
= /
T Length of service before failure
MTBF Mean time between failures 0
T
1 /
Time
T/MTBF / T/MTBF /

0.5 0.6065 3.0 0.0498 The probability that a product put into service at time
0 will fail before some specific time, T, is equal to
1.0 0.3679 3.5 0.0302
the area under the curve between 0 and T.
1.5 0.2231 4.0 0.0183
2.0 0.1353 4.5 0.0111
2.5 0.0821 5.0 0.0067
A manufacturer of programmable calculators is
attempting to determine a reasonable free-service
period for a model it will introduce shortly. The
manager of product testing has indicated that the
calculators have an expected life of 30 months.
Assume product life can be described by an
exponential distribution.
a. If service contracts are offered for the expected
life of the calculator, what % of those sold would
be expected to fail during the service period?
b. What service period would result in a failure rate
of approximately 10%.
Given: MTBF = 30 months

a. Given: T = 30

P(failure before T) = 1 - e-T/MTBF

T/MTBF = 30/30 = 1.00
Using Table 4S.1:
e-1.00 = .3679
P(failure before 30) = 1 - .3679 = .6321

b. Given: Probability (no failure before T) = .90 (1.00 - .10)

.90 = e-T/MTBF
Re-arranging:
e-T/MTBF = .90
Using Table 4S.1, this corresponds to T/MTBF = .10
Substituting:
T/30 = .10
T = .10 x 30 = 3 months

=

Reliability

0 z
Z Scale

Mean life T
years
A major TV manufacturer has determined that its
19-inch color TV picture tubes have a mean service
life that can be modeled by a normal distribution
with mean of 6 years and a standard deviation of 0.5
year.
a. what probability can you assign to service lives of at
least (1) 5 years? (2) 6 years?
b. If the manufacturer offers service contracts of four years
on these picture tubes, what % can be expected to fail
from wear-out during the service period?
Given: = 6 years & = .5 years

a. (1) P(T > 5) = 1 P(T < 5)

56 66
> 5 yr : z 2.00 (2) > 6 yr : z 0.00
.5 .5
Probability = 1.00 .0228 .9772 Probability 1.00 .5000 .5000

.9772
.5000

2 0 0
 46
b. < 4 yr : z 4.00
.5
Therefore, Probability = approximately 0.

4
 Availability
The fraction of time a piece of equipment is expected to
be available for operation

MTBF
Availability
MTBF MTR
where
MTBF Mean time between failures
MTR Mean time to repair
A manager must decide between two machines. The
manager will take into account each machines
operating costs and initial costs, and its breakdown
and repair times. Machine A has a projected average
operating time of 142 hours and a projected average
repair time of 7 hours. Projected times for machine
B are an average operating time of 65 hours and a
repair time of 2 hours. What are the projected
availabilities of each machine.
 142
= = = .9530
+ 142 + 7

65
= = = .9701
+ 65+2
A designer estimates that she can (a) increase the
average time between failures of a part by 5% @
$450, or (b) reduce the average repair time by 10% @
$200. which option would be more cost-effective?
Currently, the average time between failures is 100
hours and the average repair time is 4 hours.
 100
= = = .9615
+ 100 + 4

a. Increase in MTBF (cost = $450) = (.05)(100) = 5 hrs.

New MTBF = 100 + 5 = 105 hrs.
105
= = = .9633
+ 105 + 4

b. Reduction in MTR (cost = $200) = (.1)(4 hrs.) = .4 hrs.

New MTR = 4 hrs .4 hrs = 3.6 hrs.
100
= = = .9653
+ 100 + 3.6

Option b (reduce average repair time by 10% at a cost of $200) is most cost-effective. It costs
$250 less than Option a, and it provides higher availability.