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Mechanical Systems

and

Signal Processing

Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201

www.elsevier.com/locate/jnlabr/ymssp

condition monitoring

Yong Suna,, Lin Maa, Joseph Mathewa, Wenyi Wangb, Sheng Zhanga

a

CRC for Integrated Engineering Asset Management, School of Mechanical, Manufacturing and Medical Engineering,

QUT, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia

b

Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia

Received 11 August 2004; received in revised form 12 October 2004; accepted 20 October 2004

Available online 8 December 2004

Abstract

The ability to predict hazards of mechanical systems accurately can signicantly enhance the predictive

maintenance task. However, predicting hazards of systems accurately is non-trivial, especially when

historical failure data are sparse or zero. The proposed proportional covariate model (PCM) overcomes this

difculty. This paper describes the concepts of PCM briey and focuses on the estimation of the hazards of

mechanical systems using accelerated life tests and condition monitoring data. This new approach to

hazard estimation can reduce the number of accelerated life tests signicantly. The hazard estimation can

further be rened and updated with on-line condition monitoring data on a continual basis.

r 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Hazard prediction; Condition monitoring; Accelerated life tests; Proportional covariate model; Proportional

hazard model

1. Introduction

Accurate estimation and prediction of the hazards of mechanical systems are critical to the

predictive maintenance activities. Predictive maintenance plays a very important role in increasing

Corresponding author. School of Mechanical, Manufacturing and Medical Engineering, Queensland University of

Technology, 2 George Street, G.P.O. Box 2434, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia. Tel.: +61 7 3864 5103; fax:

+61 7 3864 1469.

E-mail address: y3.sun@qut.edu.au (Y. Sun).

0888-3270/$ - see front matter r 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.ymssp.2004.10.009

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1190 Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201

maintenance effectiveness and reducing maintenance costs and hence has attracted the attention

of researchers in recent times [15]. Several predictive maintenance strategies/methodologies have

been developed, among which the reliability centred maintenance (RCM) and condition based

maintenance (CBM) are most commonly used [4,6,7]. Regardless of what type of predictive

maintenance strategy is used, the prediction of future failure modes, time and its trend is a basic

requirement.

Failure prediction of mechanical systems can be conducted in two ways: fault diagnosis from

condition monitoring signals and statistical analysis of historical failure data. Most existing

statistical models require sufcient historical operational data and mature statistical techniques to

be effective. However, ideal industrial historical failure data are generally not available.

Accelerated life tests are often conducted to collect failure data which are sufcient for the

estimation of the hazard functions or reliability functions of machines or its mechanical

components. Accelerated life tests are time consuming and costly. There is considerable merit in

reducing the number of accelerated life tests. Effective methods need to be developed to enable

hazard estimation and prediction when historical failure data are sparse or even zero. On the

other hand, condition monitoring and fault diagnosis techniques are being increasingly applied to

failure prediction of mechanical systems. However, these condition monitoring and fault

diagnosis techniques while being researched, mainly focus on feature extraction and defect

detection of mechanical systems using different signal processing techniques. These condition

monitoring and fault diagnosis techniques still fall short of providing overall accurate diagnosis

and remaining life estimation. Besides, prognosis based on condition monitoring and fault

diagnosis techniques are often conducted using dynamical analysis or failure mechanism theory

(such as crack growth theory and fatigue failure theory) which are too specic for the range of

applications today [8]. A more effective strategy would be to develop proper theoretical prediction

models with a combination of failure data and condition monitoring data.

Condition monitoring data are commonly termed as covariates in reliability theory and can be

classied into two categories:

(1) Environmental covariates Ze t: The changes of these covariates will cause the characteristics

of the hazard of a system to change. Working load is an example of an environment covariate.

(2) Response covariates Z r t: The changes of these covariates are caused by the changes of

hazard of a system. The majority of condition monitoring data can be classed as response

covariates and are symptoms that reect the deterioration of a system.

The proportional hazard model (PHM) has been developed for predicting the hazard of a

system with a combination of historical failure data and on-line condition monitoring data. It was

introduced by Cox and was initially developed to assess the effects of environmental covariates on

the hazard of a system. The hazard rate at time t, ht; of an item is modelled as a product of the

baseline hazard function h0(t) and a covariate function cZ e t; g as follows [9]:

ht h0 tcZe t; g: (1)

The covariate function cZ e t; g is dependent on different factors that affect the hazard rate of

an item. The baseline hazard rate h0(t) is the hazard rate of a system without the inuence of

covariates. The parameters of the covariate function are commonly estimated using the maximum

likelihood method.

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Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201 1191

PHM has been used in various applications [913]. Ebeling [13] presented two case studies. One

of these was to analyse how a load placed on a motor will affect its design life for a particular

reliability level. In this case study, the load placed on the motor is an environmental covariate.

PHM needs sufcient failure data to estimate the baseline hazard function h0(t) and the weight

parameters for each covariate. This shortcoming limits the effectiveness of PHM signicantly

when historical failure data are insufcient. Furthermore, PHM represented by Eq. (1) indicates

that the hazard of a system will change when its covariates change, i.e., covariates are explanatory

variables and hazard is the response variable in PHM. However, in practice, response covariates

are often monitored and recorded to determine the deterioration of a system. In this situation,

covariates (condition monitoring data) are response variables and the hazard becomes the

explanatory variable. PHM is not perfectly suitable for modelling this scenario as statisticians

Moore and McCabe [14] have demonstrated. They showed that the regression results will be

different if the explanatory variable and response variables are interchanged. In order to predict

the hazard of a mechanical system using response covariates, the authors propose a proportional

covariates model (PCM). The hazard of a system when historical failure data are zero can be

estimated and predicted by a combination of PCM and accelerated life tests. The number of

accelerated life tests can also be signicantly reduced by applying PCM when the data from these

accelerated life tests are used for estimating the hazard function of a mechanical system. This

paper addresses these two issues.

The rest of the paper is organised as follows. The concepts and methodologies of PCM are

described briey in Section 2. The experiments used to validate the assumption for PCM is

presented in Section 3. This is followed by a case study which demonstrates the applications of

PCM in hazard estimation and reliability analysis of a mechanical system in Section 4.

Conclusions are presented in Section 5.

PCM assumes that covariates of a system, or a function of these covariates, are proportional to

the hazard of the systeman assumption that has been supported by empirical evidence [9] and

has also been validated by experiments conducted by the authors (see Section 3).

A common understanding of mechanical systems integrity is that increased deterioration more

often than not increases the likelihood of failure [15,16]. Accurate condition monitoring data

(covariates) of a system should reect the degree of the deterioration of the system [17,18].

Therefore it is reasonable to assume that a covariate of a mechanical system is a continuous and

monotonous function of the failure rate (hazard) of the system. The mathematical relationship

between these covariates and system hazard can be modelled in different ways, such as a linear

function. As a result, the assumption that covariates or their transformed variables, of a system

are proportional to the hazard of the system, is justied.

This same assumption has been used by Cox [19] while developing the proportional hazard

model (PHM). Over last 30 years, PHM has found numerous applications using realistic cases and

data. In particular, this assumption has been used to study mechanical systems [10,13,20,21].

Barbera et al. [22] developed a condition based maintenance model for repairing equipment based

on the same assumption that the hazard of equipment is a linear function of the condition of the

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equipment. Heyns and Smit [18] demonstrated that the measurement of the natural frequency

shift of a fan had a linear relationship with the damage level of the fan throughout his

experiments.

In PCM, a function of covariates CZr t is expressed as follows:

CZ r t Ctht; (2)

where Zr(t) is the covariate function which is usually time dependent. The variable C(t) is the

baseline covariate function which is also usually time dependent. The function h(t) is the hazard

function of a system. The PCM represented by Eq. (2) indicates that the covariates of a system

changes when the hazard of this system changes, i.e., the covariates are response variables and the

hazard is an explanatory variable in PCM.

The construction of a suitable function of covariates CZ r t plays an important role in

improving the accuracy of hazard estimation, especially when using multiple covariates. For

simplication, this paper considers a rst order scenario where a single covariate is used, and

CZ r t Z r t: (3)

The PCM for this case is given by substituting Eq. (3) into Eq. (2),

Zr t Ctht: (4)

PCM is different from PHM in the following aspects:

1. PCM predicts the hazard of a system using the covariates caused by the deterioration of a

system and is therefore more suitable for situations where symptoms of a system are monitored.

On the other hand, PHM predicts the hazard of a system using covariates that affect the hazard

of a system and is more suitable for situations where environmental conditions are monitored.

These environmental conditions will cause the failure rate of a system to change.

2. In PHM, a baseline hazard rate h0(t) is used to describe the relationship between covariates and

hazard, whereas in PCM, a baseline covariate function C(t) is employed to describe the

relationship between the covariates and the hazard. The baseline hazard rate h0(t) is the hazard

rate without inuence of covariates. The baseline covariate function C(t) represents the rate of

change of covariates when the hazard changes.

The relationship (or difference) between PCM and PHM can be described by Fig. 1.

Compared with PHM, PCM has several advantages. The estimated hazards of a system based

on different historical covariate data are all the same in PCM. In PHM, these hazards may vary

[23]. PCM is used to update the hazard function of a system. The changes of this hazard function

are independent of the covariate and hence the updated hazard function can be used to predict

preventive time. In PHM, on the other hand, the hazard is estimated from on-line condition data

and hence can only be used to trigger an alarm when the hazard of a system reaches its predened

critical level. Furthermore, PCM can work when failure data are zero because the baseline

covariate functions can be estimated according to experience or other ancillary information such

as data from accelerated life tests. PHM is not applicable in this situation because the baseline

hazard function h0(t) in PHM is largely dependent on historical failure data. In PCM, the baseline

covariate function C(t) is dependent on both historical failure data and historical condition

monitoring data and can be updated according to newly observed failure data and covariates.

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Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201 1193

of a system cause changes of the symptom PCM+PHM

PCM indicators (response covariates) of the system.

Z r (t ) = C (t )h(t )

Z r 0 (t ) = C (t )h0 (t )

= C (t )h0 (t ) ( Z e (t ))

the changes of the symptom indicators

(response covariates) of the system.

cause changes in the characteristics of the

hazard of a system.

h0 (t ) h(t ) = h0 (t ) ( Z e (t ))

without influence of

environmental covariates

Estimating the baseline covariate function C(t) is a critical activity in PCM and can be

conducted using the following two approaches:

1. The baseline covariate function C(t) is typically estimated from historical failure data and

covariates. Initially, a set of discrete baseline covariate function values can be generated:

Zti

Cti i 1; 2; . . . ; mf ; (5)

hin ti

is the number of failure data and int is the initial hazard functionof a mechanical system

estimated using historical failure data. Subsequently, the baseline covariate function can be

obtained using the discrete data set Cti i 1; 2; . . . ; mf :

2. In the case of sparse or even zero historical data, the baseline covariate function C(t) can also

be determined according to anecdotal experience of operators of plant and/or using

supplementary information such as data from accelerated life tests. Hence for this case, the

hazard functions of mechanical systems can still be estimated using PCM.

This paper focuses on the second approach.

After the baseline covariate function C(t) is determined, the hazard rate of a system can be

estimated and updated using online condition monitoring data that act as covariates Z r t by the

following formula:

~ Zr t :

ht (6)

Ct

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1194 Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201

~ are generally estimated using the regression technique and the maximum

Functions C(t) and ht

likelihood method.

Failures of mechanical components generally have the following features:

(1) A mechanical component has several failure modes. The failure of a mechanical component

with a specic failure mode is usually dened as inability to perform its predened function

satisfactorily due to this failure occurring. However, the demarcation line between failure and

non-failure is often unclear. Unlike normal failures in electrical components, the failure of a

mechanical component usually occurs more gradually rather than be a sudden occurrence.

(2) When a mechanical component fails, it can continue to operate often resulting in this failed

component affecting other components in due course.

(3) Failure of a mechanical component usually will not cause its related mechanical components

to fail immediately but can accelerate their failure rates.

These features enable the quantication of hazard rates of mechanical components using

deterioration indicators such as the increment of crack depth, the degree of misalignment and the

degree of deformation, and allow the estimation of baseline covariate functions of mechanical

components using deterioration data during accelerated life tests instead of failure data. A case

study will be presented in Section 4. Before conducting the case study, the reasonableness of the

assumption for PCM is rst examined.

PCM has been developed on the assumption that the covariates of a mechanical system are

proportional to the hazard of the system and this assumption was veried by the following

experiment.

A shaft with a wheel was supported by two ball bearings (left bearing and right bearing) (see

Fig. 2). The shaft was driven by a motor through a pair of exible couplings. The left bearing

housing moved in two opposite directions to simulate different degrees of angular misalignment of

the shaft. The movement of the bearing housing was controlled by a screw.

The angular misalignment of the shaft simulated a failure mode (failure mode 1) of the test rig.

During shaft rotation, the misaligned shaft caused the bearings to vibrate. The vibration

acceleration of the right bearing was measured by a data acquisition system shown in Fig. 3.

Initially, it was anticipated that the average acceleration amplitude of the vibration of the test

bearing would be sensitive to the changes in the angular misalignment of the shafta fact that was

veried from the experimentation. Therefore, the average acceleration amplitude of the vibration of

the test bearing was used as a covariate to indicate the degrees of angular misalignment. This

covariate was measured and calculated against the different degrees of angular misalignment of the

shaft. The result shown in Fig. 4 was obtained under the following conditions:

1. During the experiments, the speed of the shaft was 960 rpm. The operation load was 0.89 kW.

Both bearings were in healthy condition. An accelerometer was mounted on the right bearing

housing to detect the vibration signal of the bearing. The vibration of the test bearing was

measured against different degrees of angular misalignment of the shaft in two opposite

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Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201 1195

PCB

1 482A20 ICP

Motor signal

Left Right

conditioner

bearing Shaft bearing

Daq 308

1. ENDEVCO 256HX-10 Laptop with Daq KROHN-

Data

piezoelectric accelerometer EZ Professional HITE 3202

collector

2. Left and right bearing: Deep Program Filter

groove ball bearing 6204

0.14

0.12

trendline

0.1

Aav (g/800)

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0

0 0.5 1 1.5

h (t)

Fig. 4. The relationship between the hazard h(t) of the shaft and the average vibration amplitude Aav.

directions to check if the test results were sensitive to the directions of the misalignments of the

shaft. The sampling frequency for data acquisition was 10 kHz. In each test, 20,000 samples of

data were collected. The reliability of the shaft was dened at 0.7 with an angular misalignment

1

of 760 rad:

2. For failure mode 1 the assumption that the hazard rate of the shaft is proportional to the

degree of angular misalignment is justied. It is clear that the shaft will fail to function (rotate)

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1196 Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201

properly when its angular misalignment reaches a threshold. Hence, the failure of the test rig

with failure mode 1 was dened as that occurring when the shaft operated abnormally

due to the angular misalignment. The greater the angular misalignment, the more likely the

shaft operated abnormally. The assumption that the hazard rates of mechanical components

are proportional to their degrees of deterioration is also supported by other experiments

(refer to Fig. 9).

Fig. 4 clearly indicates that the covariate, i.e., the average vibration amplitude Aav, was

proportional to the hazard of the shaft. In this experiment, the baseline covariate function, C(t)

can be treated as time-independent because of the straight trendline.

Ct 0:065 g=800 (7)

However, in many scenarios, the baseline covariate functions are time dependent.

As mentioned in Section 2, PCM is able to predict the hazards of mechanical systems using

condition monitoring data when historical failure data are sparse or even zero. To demonstrate

this, a case study was conducted using acceleration life test data on a single stage spur gearbox.

Table 1 shows the experimental data for operating hours, increments of the crack depth of the test

gear and the kurtosis of the residual signal.

A residual signal is obtained from the signal average by ltering out gear meshing harmonics

(i.e, using a multi band-stop lter). It represents random transmission errors for healthy gears.

For faulty gears, the transmission errors will include a sudden change (e.g. a spike) which

becomes non-Gaussian. Kurtosis is a good measure of non-Gaussianity (e.g. spikiness) in a signal.

Tooth cracking and tooth pitting type of faults can be distinguished using the residual signal

methods [24].

In this experiment, each test gear was 10 mm wide and had 27 teeth. Its rated load was 24.5 kW

at a shaft speed of 2400 rpm, but the gears were overloaded during the tests to accelerate the

onset of failure. In addition, each gear was initially spark eroded with a semi-circle notch of 1 mm

radius at the root llet of a tooth, across the middle of the tooth width. The vibration of the test

gearbox was continuously monitored and recorded. The kurtosis of the residual signal of gear

meshing vibration signal was trended and used as a local fault indicator for gear fault diagnosis.

In this paper, these test data were used to estimate the trend of the hazard of the test gears, and the

hazard functions of the gears. In this case study, the covariate was selected as the kurtosis of the

residual signal (the second row in Table 1). Previous research [24,25] has revealed that the kurtosis

Table 1

The test gearbox data

Kurtosis of the residual signal 2.2933 2.6934 3.6728 3.5146 3.2240 4.7228

Increments of crack depth (mm) 0 1.57 1.73 2.11 2.81 3.16

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Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201 1197

of the residual signal has a good co-relationship with the crack of the test gear. The baseline

covariate function was estimated using the following two assumptions:

(1) The hazard rate of the test gear is proportional to its crack depth after initiationa reasonable

assumption because a gear with a deeper crack is likely to breakdown earlier. The assumption

was further supported by correlation analysis between the increments of the crack depth of the

test gear and its failure rate (see Fig. 9).

(2) The time to failure of the test gear is a Weibull distribution. This assumption holds because the

test gearbox is a typical mechanical system and the test was conducted to simulate the wear-

out stage (crack propagation).

Using the above two assumptions and Eq. (5), the baseline covariate function C(t) was

estimated. In this case, the baseline covariate function C(t) contained the unknown proportional

scale which represents the relationship between the hazard rate of the test gear and the increments

of its crack depth. A preliminary analysis of the discrete data set Cti i 1; 2; . . . ; 6 indicated

that the baseline covariate function can be described in the form, atb. The parameters a and b were

estimated using the regression technique. After the baseline covariate function was determined,

the hazard function h(t) of the test gear was estimated using Eq. (6) and the kurtosis of the

residual signal obtained from the condition monitoring data. Figs. 5 and 6 show the results of the

PCM based hazard estimation using online condition monitoring data during 4.5 and 5.7 h

respectively.

The shaft load was not constant during the test (Fig. 7). The changes of working load affected

the vibration signals and gear life. These changes can be reected in PCM because of the

integration of condition monitoring data in the model.

The estimated hazard function using on-line condition monitoring data during 5.7 h was

ht 0:0403t2:5591 : (8)

Fig. 5. Hazard curves of the test gears during 4.5 h of condition monitoring.

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1198 Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201

Fig. 6. Hazard curves of the test gears during 5.7 h of condition monitoring.

200

180

160

140

Overload (%)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Time (hrs)

The original failure data were extracted from historical experimental data based on the values of

predened local fault indicators. According to the experiments, a gear was not considered to

operate normally when its local fault indicator was equal to or exceeded a specied value (in

this example, 3.5). In this paper we regarded the gear as failed if its local fault indicator was

greater than or equal to 3.5. In addition, only those failure times whose intervals were longer than

0.07 h were taken into account since the original test data were not recorded in equal time

intervals. The original failure rate of the test gears was estimated from the original failure data.

The original hazard rate is also shown in Figs. 5 and 6 and was compared with the estimated

results using PCM.

Fig. 8 presents a reliability probability distribution of the test gear based on the hazard

estimation shown in Fig. 6. The gure reveals that the reliability of the test gear would be lower

than 1% after 512 h of overloaded operating time. In reality, this low reliability indicated that test

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Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201 1199

Fig. 9. The relationship between the increment of crack depth and hazard.

gear would certainly operate abnormally after 512 h of overloaded operating time. The test results

conrmed the estimation.

From Figs. 5 and 6, it can be seen that the hazard estimation based on PCM is relatively

accurate. Figs. 5 and 6 indicate that the hazard estimation using PCM has the same trend with the

original hazard rate. The prediction accuracy increased when more on-line condition monitoring

data were used for hazard estimation. The departure between the estimated hazard line and the

original hazard line was caused by the departure of the real data from the two assumptions used

to estimate the baseline covariate function. A correlation analysis (Fig. 9) indicates that the

hazard rate of the test gear can be treated as proportional to the crack depth after initiation,

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1200 Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201

during most of the test period but not at the start of the test because of the initial spark-eroded

notch. From the Weibull tness analysis (Fig. 10), it can be seen that the distribution of failure

data is not strictly Weibull although the goodness of t is reasonable.

5. Conclusion

The above case study demonstrates that PCM can be used to estimate hazard functions of

mechanical components or systems in cases of sparse or even zero historical failure data provided

the covariates of the components or systems are proportional to the hazard of the components or

systems. The hazard functions of a mechanical component or system can be estimated through a

combination of PCM and accelerated life tests provided that the hazard of the component or

system is proportional to its deterioration. In principle, the reliability function of a mechanical

system can be estimated by a single accelerated life test when PCM is used. Therefore, the number

of accelerated life tests for estimating the reliability of a mechanical system can be signicantly

reduced by a combination of PCM and accelerated life tests.

PCM research is still in its infancy and requires more case studies for its verication. Further

work is continuing using PCM to make reliability predictions when the hazard of a component or

system is not proportional to its deterioration. Yet another research direction could be the

prediction of reliability using PCM based on both historical data (failure data and covariates

data) and on-line condition monitoring data.

Acknowledgement

The authors gratefully acknowledge the effort of Dr. Vladis Kosse of Queensland University of

Technology who designed and built the test rig used in this study.

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Y. Sun et al. / Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 20 (2006) 11891201 1201

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