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4. Political Risk.
Political risk reflects the expectation that the political climate in a country will
change in such a way that a firms operating position or investment value will
deteriorate. Leading sources of political risk are: expropriation or
nationalization, international war or civil strife, unilateral breaches of contract,
destructive governmental actions, harmful actions against people, restrictions on
the repatriation of profits, differing points of view, and discriminatory taxation
policies. [See Table 3.2.] The following types of political risk range from the
least to the most destructive.
1. Systemic Political Risk. Systemic political risk creates risks that affect
all firms because of a change in public policy. However, such changes do
not necessarily reduce potential profits.
2. Procedural Political Risk. Procedural political risk reflects the costs
of getting things done because of such problems as government corruption,
labor disputes, and/or a partisan judicial system.
3. Distributive Political Risk. Distributive political risk reflects
revisions in such items as tax codes, regulatory structure, and monetary
policy imposed by governments in order to capture greater benefits from
the activities of foreign firms.
4. Catastrophic Political Risk. Catastrophic political risk includes
those random political developments that adversely affect the operations of
all firms in a country.
CHAPTER SIX
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
AND FACTOR MOBILITY THEORY
INTERVENTIONIST THEORIES
Interventionist trade theories prescribe government action with respect to the
international trade process.
A. Mercantilism
The concept of mercantilism (a zero-sum game) served as the foundation of
economic thought for nearly three hundred years (15001800). It purports that a
countrys wealth is measured by its holdings of treasure (usually gold). To
amass a surplus (a favorable balance of trade), a country must export more
than it imports and then collect gold and other forms of wealth from countries
that run a deficit (an unfavorable balance of trade).
B. Neomercantilism
Neomercantilism represents the more recent strategy of countries that use
protectionist trade policies in an attempt to run favorable balances of trade
and/or accomplish particular social or political objectives.
CHAPTER SEVEN
GOVERNMENTAL INFLUENCE ON TRADE
A. Unemployment
Persistent unemployment pushes many groups to call for protectionism; one of
the most effective is organized labor. By limiting imports, local jobs are
retained as firms and consumers are forced to purchase domestically produced
goods and services. As we can see from the case against new U.S economic
policies included raising of prices in cuba for imported items made them to rely
on domestic ones, they may result in a decline in export-related jobs because of
(i) price increases for components or (ii) lower incomes abroad.
Thus, governments must carefully balance the costs of higher prices with the
costs of unemployment and the displaced production that would result from
freer trade when enacting such measures.
Infant-Industry Argument
First presented by Alexander Hamilton in 1792, the infant-industry argument holds that
a government should temporarily shield emerging industries in which the country may
ultimately possess a comparative advantage from international competition until its firms
are able to effectively compete in world markets.
As we can see from the case that U.S has stopped trading with cuba because of Castros
incite revolution which made them gain Eventual competitiveness in the world market
Two basic problems associated with this argument are the assumptions that (i)
governments can in fact identify those industries that have a high probability of success
and (ii) firms within those industries should receive government assistance. Infant-
industry protection requires some segment of the economy (typically local consumers) to
incur the initial higher cost of inefficient local production. Ultimately, the validity of the
argument rests on the expectation that the future benefits of an internationally
competitive industry will exceed the costs of the associated protectionist measures.
Industrialization Argument
Many of todays emerging economies emulate historical practices and use protectionism
to spur local industrialization. The industrialization argument purports that the
development of national industrial output (and hence economic growth) should be
supported, even though domestic prices may not be competitive on the world market.
Reasons to support it are numerous.
1. Use of Surplus Workers. Surplus workers can more easily be used to
increase manufacturing output than agricultural output. However, this shift
may also lead to (i) increasing demand for social services because of the
rural to urban migration and (ii) decreasing agricultural output. In this
instance, improved agriculture practices may be a better means of achieving
economic success.
2. Promoting Investment Inflows. Import restrictions encourage foreign
direct investment by foreign firms that want to avoid the loss of a lucrative
or potential market. FDI inflows in turn lead to increased local
employment, an attractive outcome for policy makers.
3. Diversification. Price variations can wreak havoc on economies that rely
on just a few commodities for job creation and export earnings. Contrary to
expectations, however, unless a countrys industrial base is truly expanded,
a move into manufacturing may simply shift that dependence from a
reliance on the basic commodities to the downstream manufactured goods
produced from them.
4. Greater Growth for Manufactured Products. Terms of trade refers
to the quantity of imports that a given quantity of a countrys exports can
buy. Many emerging nations have experienced declining terms of trade
because the demand for and prices of raw materials and agricultural
commodities have not risen as fast as the demand for and prices of finished
goods. In addition, changes in technology have reduced the need for many
raw materials. Cost savings realized from manufactured products go mainly
to higher profits and wages, thus fueling the industrialization process.
5. Import Substitution versus Export Promotion. Import
substitution represents an economic development strategy that relies on the
stimulation of domestic production for local consumption by erecting
barriers to imported goods. If the protected industries do not become
globally competitive, however, local customers will continually be
penalized by high prices. On the other hand, export-led development, i.e.,
export promotion, encourages economic development by harnessing a
country-specific advantage (e.g., low labor costs) and building a vibrant
manufacturing sector through the stimulation of exports. In reality, when
effectively crafted, import substitution policies eventually lead to the
possibility of export promotion as well.
6. Nation Building. The industrialization process helps countries build
infrastructure, advance rural development, enhance the quality of peoples
lives, and boost the skills of the workforce.