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Executive Summary
The ongoing slowdown in developed marketscharacterized by muted growth in the US
and the European debt crisishas led governments and central banks to develop a series of
expansionary policies seeking to stimulate economic growth. For example, the US Federal
Reserve has decided to hold short-term interest rates near zero until at least mid-2013,
while the European Central Bank (ECB) recently cut interest rates by 25 bps to 1.25% on
expectations of slow growth in the Eurozone.
In this low-yield environment, many institutional investors in developed nationsspecifically
John G. Popp
defined-benefit plan sponsorsare faced with an uncomfortable predicament: lower yields
Global Head and
Chief Investment Officer, on their assets and rising liability values due to falling discount rates. As a result, investors are
Credit Investments Group intensifying their efforts to bolster returns in order to fund increasing plan obligations.
In this paper, we review various fixed-income investment optionswith a particular focus on
the non-investment grade credit sectorthat, we believe, can help mitigate these current
challenges by potentially offering more attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Specifically, we believe that the current strength in credit fundamentalsincluding below-
average default rates, current attractive valuations and inflated concerns over the near-term
maturity wallmay warrant increased exposure to credit instruments, especially those on the
higher-yielding end of the spectrum.
Lastly, we discuss how to integrate non-investment grade credit into a broader fixed income
portfolio. We provide a case study in which we: a) identify an optimal mix of high-yield and
senior-loan exposures, and b) incorporate a non-investment grade credit basket to a traditional
core fixed income portfolio and assess its impact on total risk-adjusted returns.
(1) Yield-to-worst is the lowest possible yield from owning a bond considering all potential call dates prior to maturity.
(2) As measured by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October 2011. Headline inflation accounts for total price increases. Core excludes food and energy.
(3) As of Nov. 14, 2011. Historical average is from Jan. 1, 1992 to Nov. 14, 2011.
(4) As measured by the standard deviation of the following: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index Three-Year Swap-Adjusted Yield and the Credit Suisse High Yield
Index Yield-to-Worst.
(5) The 3-year swap-adjusted yield is used for the floating rate component (LIBOR) of senior loans to yield a comparable fixed rate.
(6) Moodys Investors Service
(7) Bank of America Merrill Lynch
6
8
4.03
%
64
2.37
4.03
%
42
1.75
US CPI 3.5% YoY
US CORE CPI 2.1% YoY 2.37
2
0 1.75
US CPI 3.5% YoY
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Jan-05 Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-11 Sep-10
Sep-11
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
May-01
May-02
Sep-03 May-03
Sep-04 May-04
May-05
May-06
Jan-08 May-07
Jan-09 May-08
May-09
May-11 May-10
May-11
US CORE CPI 2.1% YoY
0
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-11
May-01
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
Barclays USUSAggregate
Barclays Yield-to-Worst
Aggregate Yield-to-Worst Barclays
Barclays US US Treasury
Treasury 7-10Yield-to-Worst
7-10 Year Year Yield-to-Worst BarclaysBarclays Long Government/Credit
Long Government/Credit Index Yield-to-Worst
Index Yield-to-Worst
Note: All data was obtained from publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has
not sought
Barclays to independently
US Aggregate Yield-to-Worst verify Barclays
information obtained
US Treasury from
7-10 Year public and third party
Yield-to-Worst sources
Barclays and makes no
Long Government/Credit representations
Index Yield-to-Worst or warranties as to accuracy,
completeness or reliability of such information. Please refer to Glossary and Definitions at the end of this paper for information on proxies used.
Data as of November 14, 2011
Source: Bloomberg and Credit Suisse
Display 2: Non-investment grade credit offer high returns on an absolute and relative basis
4.3
4.8
4 3.0 3.7 3.7
4.3
4 2.4 3.0 3.7 3.7
1.8 2.0
2.4
2 1.4 1.8 2.0
2 1.4
0.5
0.5
0
Preferred Stock
High Dividend
US MBS
US REITS
EM Sovereign Debt
Large Cap
7-10
0
US Fixed Income
3-M LIBOR
US ABS
Government/Credit
Leveraged Loans
US Investment
High Yield
US Long-Dated
US Preferred Stock
US High Dividend
US MBS
US REITS
Debt
US Large Cap
US Treasury 7-10
US Fixed Income
3-M LIBOR
US ABS
Government/Credit
Leveraged Loans
US Investment
High Yield
US Long-Dated
Equity
Grade
(local ccy)
US Treasury
Core
USEquity
Grade
Year
(local ccy)
Sovereign
Core
Year
EMUS
US
Fixed Income Yields Equity Dividend Yields REITS Dividend Yield Non-Investment Grade Credit Yields
Note: All data was obtained from publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has
not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to accuracy,
completeness or reliability of such information. Please refer to Glossary and Definitions at the end of this paper for information on proxies used.
Data as of November 14, 2011
Source:
16 Bloomberg and Credit Suisse
16
(8) Based on trailing 12-month default rates for the loan asset class. Source: S&P LCD
(9) Source: S&P LCD
EM S
US P
US Lo
US
(
(loc
US
US
US Fi
US Pref
US
EM Sov
US Tr
US
Hi
Lever
Govern
US
Display 3: Default rates are expected to remain below average in the next 12-to-24 months
12
12
8
%
8
%
4 1.83
0 1.83 0.32
Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
0.32
0
Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
Note: Par-weighted default rates representative of LTM. All data was obtained from publicly available information, internally developed data and
other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and
third party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information.
Data as of October 31, 2011
Source: S&P LCD and Credit Suisse
250
250
Par Amount of Loans Maturing ($ billions)
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0 2008
2008 2009
2009 2010
2010 October2011
October 2011
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Note: All data was obtained from publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable.
2018 2019
Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third party sources and makes no representations
2008 2009 2010 October 2011
or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information.
Data as of October 2011
Source: S&P LCD
2,000
1,600
Average Spread (bps)
1,200
400
CS Leveraged Loan Index 3-Year Discount Margin CS High Yield Index Spread-to-Worst
CS Leveraged Loan Index Three-Year Discount Margin CS High Yield Index Spread-to-Worst
Average High Low Jul. 2011 Sep. 2011 Nov. 14, 2011
CS Leveraged Loan Index 443 1,799 230 562 722 642
Three-Year Discount Margin (Dec 2008) (Feb 2007)
Note: All data was obtained from publicly available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable.
Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third party sources and makes no representations
or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information.
Data as of November 14, 2011
Source: Credit Suisse
9.5
1,600
1,200
assess the trade-off between returns and volatility for different and significantly improves the Sharpe ratio of the fixed-income
non-investment grade portfolios. Our analysis shows that an portion of the portfolio.
allocation of 75% to senior loans and 25% to high yield bonds
offers the highest risk-adjusted returns (Display 6).
7.0
75% LL +
25% HY
6.5
100% LL
6.0
5 6 7 8 9 10
Historical Risk (%)
Note: Data based on historical returns from December 31, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Indices were used as proxies for asset classes above:
Leveraged Loans (Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index); High Yield (Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Index). For illustrative purposes only.
Past performance is not a guarantee or an indication of future results. All data was obtained from publicly available information, internally
developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify information obtained from
public and third party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information.
Source: Bloomberg and Credit Suisse
Credit Basket
33% High
Yield
Leveraged
Loans
US
Aggregate
US 67%
Aggregate
100%
Portfolio Characteristics
Note: Data based on historical returns from December 31, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Indices were used as proxies for asset classes above: Leveraged
Loans (Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index); High Yield (Barclays Capital US Corporate High Yield Index) and US Aggregate (Barclays US Aggregate
Index). For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a guarantee or an indication of future results. All data was obtained from publicly
available information, internally developed data and other third party sources believed to be reliable. Credit Suisse has not sought to independently verify
information obtained from public and third party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to accuracy, completeness or reliability of such
information.
Source: Bloomberg and Credit Suisse
Conclusion
In an overall low-yield environment, we believe non-investment Despite recent market dislocations, we have a relatively benign
grade credit offers a viable alternative for investors seeking credit outlook due to improving corporate balance sheets and
attractive absolute and relative yields. Additionally, non- increasing cash balances. Moreover, our view is that current
investment grade credit, specifically senior secured loans, market conditions present an attractive entry point for investors
can offer compelling risk-adjusted returns and incremental in the space. We believe investors can take advantage of the
diversification, in our view. distinctive characteristics that both high yield and loans offer
within a well-designed portfolio allocation framework.
The views and opinions expressed within these publications are those of the authors, are based on matters as they exist as of
the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that
subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date hereof.
For a copy of any of these papers, please contact your relationship manager or visit our website at www.credit-suisse.com.
Copyright 2011. CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved