Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam-U.S. Military Relations

Carlyle A. Thayer
July 25,2017

Can you provide an assessment of the chances of a U.S.-Vietnam military

relationship? The standard view appears to ve that the chances are nil due to close
economic relations with China and old military ties with Russia.
ANSWER: Vietnam's national defense policy of three no's coupled with deep
suspicion of the United States on the part of both retired and active duty senior
military officers mitigates against any marked stepped up in defense relations.
ln September 2OLl Vietnam and the United States agreed to a Memorandum of
Understanding that set out five priority areas for cooperation: maritime security,
search and rescue, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, exchanges between
defense universities and research institutes, and UN peacekeeping operations.
U.S. officials at the coalface note Vietnam's part to expand the scope
a willingness on
of naval engagement and other activities but these do not go beyond the MoU
negotiated in 2011. For example, Vietnam turned down an invitation by the then
Secretary of Defense Ash Carter for Vietnamese military officers to fly on and
observe P-8 Poseidon maritime patrols over the South China Sea.
This year Vietnam has taken delivery of six new small metal Shark patrol boats and a
decommissioned U.S. Coast Guard cutter and has indicated it might purchase
another.
There is nothing in the Joint Statement issued by President Donald Trump and Prime
Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc that would commit the U.S. to assisting Hanoi in its
current dealings with Chinese threats to take action if Vietnam continues oil
exploration in the South China Sea.
It has been recently confirmed that Vietnam will purchase 64 T-9OS/SK battlefield
tanks from Russia and that Russia is offering Vietnam the 5-400 air defense system
and the MiG-35 to replace Vietnam's retired fleet of MiG 21s. lf Vietnam opts for the
MiG 35s this will end all hope of Vietnam following lndonesia in purchasing the
FtlAlB Falcons from the United States.
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam-U.S. Military Relations," Thayer

Consultoncy Background Brief , July 25, 2017. All background briefs are posted on
Soibd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam: Five Suggestions for
Military Reform
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 31,20t7

We request five suggestions of reform of Vietnam's military leadership, structure,

doctrine, etc. As it is presently totally unreconstructed since the US-Vietnam War, this
is a good time for debate and positive suggestions.

SUGGESTIONS:

1. Reduce the size of the standing army and build up the air defense-air force and
navy as separate services with sufficient maintenance, repair and logistics support.

2. Revamp Vietnam's system of military education to promote joint operations

among the three services (army, air-defense-air force, navy) from basic to high-
level. Send more officers and senior officers to attend military courses in advanced
countries with a priority focus on joint operations (among services) and combined
operations (with foreign militaries). Set advanced professional military education
and training criteria for the minister of national defense, chief of the general staff,
deputy chiefs of the general staff, service commanders and regional military
commanders.
3. Enhance the revolution in military affairs by ensuring the interoperability of air and
naval platforms in terms of C4ISR - command, control, communications,
computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance - through technology
transfer, co-production and a strong national defense industry.
4. lnitiate a broad-based program of bilateral and multilateral military exercises with
foreign counterparts to test Vietnam's combat capabilities in priority areas such as
air defense and maritime security.

5. Develop a comprehensive whole-of-government national security and defense

strategy to guide the development of service doctrines, strategies and tactics and
interoperability of the services.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Vietnam: Five Suggestions for Military Reform
Thayer Consultoncy Bockground Brief , July 31, 2OL7. All background briefs are posted
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on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.