Subscriber Dimensioning

This part will elaborate the subscriber projection until 3 years in Makassar, Manado,
and Kendari. Starting from 2017 until 2019. The main core from this topic is about population
growth in each area. If the population increase, there is a chance that the subscriber will
experience the same thing. In order to cover all of subscribers, operator should estimate the
population growth.

Kota 2017 2018 2019

Makassar 1.769.920 1.820.185 1.871.878
Manado 531.452 548.378 565.843
Kendari 304.862 314.126 326.942
Figure 1 : Estimated population growth

According to Figure 1, population from 2017 until 2019 are slightly increase. The
number are generated from several sources. Then, it formed a pattern that can be used to
calculate estimated population growth. From figure 1, we can make a detail projection for three
years ahead, such as number of RGS, number of attach subscribers, and etc. As shown in Figure
2 below.
Makassar Manado Kendari
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
RGS 619.472 637.065 655.157 186.008 191.932 198.045 106.702 109.944 114.430
RGS to HLR Subs 607.083 624.323 642.054 182.288 188.094 194.084 104.568 107.745 112.141
HLR to OCS Subs 473.524 486.972 500.802 142.185 146.713 151.386 81.563 84.041 87.470
Active 331.467 340.881 350.562 99.529 102.699 105.970 57.094 58.829 61.229
Suspend 94.705 97.394 100.160 28.437 29.343 30.277 16.313 16.808 17.494
Pool 47.352 48.697 50.080 14.218 14.671 15.139 8.156 8.404 8.747
Active to VLR Subs 324.838 334.063 343.550 97.539 100.645 103.851 55.952 57.652 60.004
Active to 2G subs 66.293 68.176 70.112 19.906 20.540 21.194 11.419 11.766 12.246
Active to 3G subs 149.160 153.396 157.753 44.788 46.215 47.686 25.692 26.473 27.553
Active to 4G subs 116.013 119.308 122.697 34.835 35.945 37.089 19.983 20.590 21.430
2G active to attach
subscriber 39.776 40.906 42.067 11.944 12.324 12.716 6.851 7.059 7.347
2G attach to PDP
context 27.843 28.634 29.447 8.360 8.627 8.901 4.796 4.942 5.143
3G active to attach
subscriber 119.328 122.717 126.202 35.831 36.972 38.149 20.554 21.178 22.042
3G attach to PDP con 107.395 110.445 113.582 32.247 33.275 34.334 18.498 19.061 19.838
4G Active to Attach
Subscriber 116.013 119.308 122.697 34.835 35.945 37.089 19.983 20.590 21.430
4G Attach to PDP
Context 116.013 119.308 122.697 34.835 35.945 37.089 19.983 20.590 21.430

Kbps/2G PDP 83.530 85.902 88.342 25.081 25.880 26.704 14.388 14.825 15.430
Kbps/3G PDP 2.255.302 2.319.352 2.385.221 677.197 698.765 721.020 388.467 400.272 416.602

Kbps/4G PDP 27.843.235 28.633.971 29.447.172 8.360.458 8.626.727 8.901.475 4.795.891 4.941.627 5.143.240
Figure 2 : Estimated Generating Subscriber
 As shown in Figure 2, there are the details of subscriber projection. First, RGS has to
be calculated. RGS is stand for Revenue Generating Subscriber. It can be said as the number
of subscriber that will generate revenue to the company. The result is obtained by multiplying
the total population with 35%. Which 35% is generated by assumption that has been set. The
amount of RGS is slightly increase from year to year. So that, there is a good opportunity for
investing in this project.

After knowing the number of RGS, the number of RGS which will attach to HLR
(Home Location Register) can be calculated. It can be obtained by multiplying the number of
RGS with 98% (the assumption of RGS to HLR subscriber that has been set). The result is the
number of subscribers registered on HLR in each areas. Example, there are approximately
608.000 subscribers registered on Makassars HLR in 2017. Then, there is OCS (Online
Charging System). OCS has a charging or billing function, so that the operators can charge
their customers based on service usage. OCS subscribers are separated into three categories.
Active, suspend, and pool. Which active categories are assumed 70%, suspend categories are
assumed 20%, and pool categories are assumed 10%. After that, the results of active, suspend,
and pool subscribers can be used to calculate the next element. There is active to VLR
subscribers, which means the number of active subscribers that have an opportunity to do
handover. If subscribers from Manado traveling to Makassar, their information will be updated
on VLR Makassar. So, we have to calculate the estimated number of subscribers that will attach
to VLR in each area, by multiplying the number of active subscribers with 98%. Then, the
number of active subscribers are separated based on types of network. They are, 2G, 3G, and
4G. After knowing the number of subscribers on each network, they can be separated into two
elements. They are, attach subscribers and attach to PDP context. Attach subscribers are
subscribers that just attach to the network and didnt do any activities such as browsing,
chatting , etc. Attach to PDP context is the number of subscribers that attach on the network
and create session or request, or using service. Such as browsing, chatting, etc. PDP is stand
for Packet Data Protocol, it is present for both SGSN and GGSN and contains subscribers
session information (IP address, IMSI, etc).

By knowing the number of subscribers that make PDP context, we can estimate the
traffic that generated by PDP context on each network (2G,3G,4G). There are approximately
83,35 Mbps in 2G, 2.255,3 Mbps in 3G, and 27.844,2 Mbps in 4G. This number is obtained by
multiplying the number of subscribers that make PDP context with assumption that has been
set ( 2G = 3Kbps; 3G = 21Kbps; 4G = 240Kbps).
 Nodes Requirement

In this case, we use a BSC with 200 Mbps maximum throughput. But, we can
only use 70% from all of throughput. It is because there is 30% space for HW
Headroom. As shown in the Figure 3 below.
Makassar Manado Kendari
Node Assumption
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Max Tput per BSC
(Mbps) 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Max Tput per BSC
used (Mbps) 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
BSC
implementation 0,848 0,873 0,897 0,255 0,263 0,271 0,146 0,151 0,157
Total 2017 1,249315909
Total 2018 1,285965131
Total 2019 1,325259923
Figure 3 : BSC requirements based on traffic on Gb interface

As shown in figure 3, the number of BSC needed in this project are 2 BSC. The actual
BSC required is 1,2 until 1,3. But in case to avoiding congestion or other network problems,
we have to raise up the value to 2. These number of BSC from 2017 until 2019 is unchanged.
So we dont need to add another BSC for 3 years.

Makassar Manado Kendari

Node Assumption
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Max Tput per RNC
(Mbps) 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Max Tput per RNC
used (Mbps) 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800 2800
RNC implementation 0,924 0,951 0,978 0,278 0,286 0,296 0,159 0,164 0,171
Total 2017 1,361144367
Total 2018 1,401074125
Total 2019 1,443886263
Figure 4 : RNC requirements based on traffic on IuPs interface

As shown in figure 4, the number of RNC needed in this project are 2 RNC. The actual
RNC required in this project is 1,3 until 1,4. In order to cover all of traffic, we have to raise up
the number of RNC into 2 RNC. These number is unchanged for approximately 3 years. So we
dont need to add another RNC for 3 years.
 Core Requirements

Max SGSN 2G/3G SAU 10000000

2G, 3G active Subs (2017) 234283,3 234284
1 SGSN for 3 areas
2G, 3G active Subs (2018) 241156,1 241157
2G, 3G active Subs (2019) 248525,1 248526
Figure 5 : Estimated SGSN

As shown in the figure 5, SGSN still capable to handle subscribers until 2019 without adding
new elements.

Max MME SAU 30000000

4G active subs 2017 170831,6 170832
1 MME for 3 areas
4G active subs 2018 175843,0 175843
4G active subs 2019 181216,2 181217
Figure 6 : Estimated MME

As shown in the figure 6, MME still capable to handle subscribers until 2019 without adding
new elements.

Max PDP per Charging Gateway 2000000

PDP Total 2017 369972,4 369973
1 CG for 3 areas
PDP Total 2018 380825,7 380826
PDP Total 2019 392462,5 392463
Figure 7 : Estimated CG

As shown in the figure 7, CG still capable to handle subscribers until 2019 without adding
new elements.

Max PDP per GGSN 5000000

PDP total 2017 369972,4 369973
1 GGSN for 3 areas
PDP total 2018 380825,7 380826
PDP total 2019 392462,5 392463
Figure 8 : Estimated GGSN

As shown in the figure 8, GGSN still capable to handle subscribers until 2019 without adding
new elements.

Max Tput per GGSN 40 Gbps

Used 28 Gbps 1 GGSN can handle all
Need 2017 3,7 Gbps traffic from 3 different
Need 2018 3,8 Gbps areas
Need 2019 3,9 Gbps
Figure 9 : Estimated GGSNs throughput
As shown in the figure 9, GGSN still capable to handle subscribers traffic until 2019 without
adding new elements.

Max Tput per PGW 40 Gbps

Used 28 Gbps 2 PGW can handle all
Need 2017 43,0 Gbps traffic from 3 different
Need 2018 44,3 Gbps areas
Need 2019 45,7 Gbps
Figure 10 : Estimated PGWs throughput

As shown in the figure 10, PGW still capable to handle subscribers traffic until 2019 without
adding new elements.