Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Korean Nuclear Crisis:
Canvassing the Contingencies

Carlyle A. Thayer
August 13,2017

Nguyen Hai Anh, Tintuc.vn Online:

Tensions arcing across the Pacific Ocean between North Korea and the United States
have scaled fresh heights in recent days, with President Donald Trump threatening
"fire and fury like the world has never seen" and Pyongyang responding by declaring
its intent to prepare a missile assault on the waters around Guam.

Question 1: What is your assessment of the current situation on Korean peninsula?

Answer: The current situation on the Korean peninsula is unpredictable because both
sides - North Korea and the United States - could take an action that is misperceived
by the other side and result in a rapid escalation of military force. Kim Jong-un could
issue another verbal threat or fire ballistic missiles into the ocean to test President
Trump's response. The United States through satellites and other technical means
could easily misread the deployment of ballistic missiles or the launching of ballistic
missiles as an attack on Guam, South Korea orJapan. This could lead to a U,S. military
response and a swift escalation into full scale war.

Question 2: How does U.S - North Korea tension impact on Northeast Asia? What is
China's role in the North Korean crisis?

Answer: Tensions on the Korean peninsula affect all countries in Northeast Asia
including China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. China has already taken
precautionary moves by reinforcing its military along the border with North Korea.
Any conflict could early result in hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees
fleeing to China. Both South Korea and Japan, which house U.S. military forces, could
be the target of a North Korean ballistic strike. lf U.S. ballistic missile defence systems
such as THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) failto intercept a North Korean
missile there could be civilian casualties in South Korea and/or Japan.

Any armed conflict would disrupt normal commercial flows and impact on the
economies of all Northeast Asian countries.
ln the worst case, North Korea or the United States might employ nuclear weapons.
This would be utterly catastrophic and lead to massive deaths.

China and the United States share a common interest in seeing the denuclearization
of the Korean peninsula. But China could accept a nuclear armed North Korea so long
as it did not continue to test nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. China and
 2

the United States have divergent interests. China opposes the use of force to resolve
the current crisis. China does not want to see a united Korea emerge dominated by
South Korea and the United States. China is willing to impose current UN sanctions
against North Korea but does not want to see regime change or political instability in
North Korea. China's media has warned that if North Korea attacks the United States
China will remain neutral but if the United States attacksfirst China will respond.

Question 3: What are President Trump's options to respond to North Korea? Would it
be tougher than his predecessors period?

Answer: Trump's options will be determined by what North Korea does next. At the
moment Trump's option is to threaten the use of force at the same time as the U.S.
pursues a diplomatic settlement with North Korea.

It is unclear what President Trump will do if Kim Jong-un repeats verbal threats to
attack Guam, the United States or U.S. allies such as South Korea and Japan. There is
a limit to how many threats Trump can make without taking action.

The United States has to prepare for four types of contingencies: (1) North Korea
resumes testing short range and medium range ballistic missiles, (2) North Korea
resumes testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), (3) North Korea fires missiles
at Guam (or Japan and/or South Korea), and (a) North Korea resumes testing its
nuclear weapons. ln the case of the first contingency the U,S. could attempt to shoot
down these missiles and launch a missile strike on North Korea's missile bases. This is
difficult if the missiles are fired from mobile launchers. ln the second contingency, the
U.S. could launch a pre-emptive strike if it detected preparations to launch a ICBM or
the U.S. could attempt to shoot the missile down and then attack the base from which
it was launched. lf North Korea fired missiles at Guam or Japan or South Korea, the
third contingency, the U.S. would retaliate with overwhelming force. As for the fourth
contingency, if North Korea tested a nuclear weapon the U.S. would retaliate by
attacking the infrastructure that supports nuclear weapons.
It should be noted that North Korea has forward deployed rockets, artillery and
missiles along the border with South Korea. North Korea could destroy Seoul before
the U.S, could launch an effective response. The risk for the United States in all the
contingencies is that the situation escalates rapidly and leads to general war in which
the use of nuclear weapons is highly likely.
Question 4: Pyongyangt hreatened to attack Guam. ls a war really imminent? How
would the US retaliate if North Korea attacked Guam?
Answer: North Korea's threat to attack Guam, while it cannot be discounted, is
unlikely to occur. Many experts doubt that North Korean conventional missiles have
the accuracy to actually hit military targets on Guam. Kim Jong-un's threats should be
regarded as a rhetorical bluff. U.S. news media is reporting business as usual in South
Korea and Guam with no signs that civilians are being evacuated or any mobilization
of military forces (land, sea and air).
As noted in the answer above, if North Korea attacked Guam the U.S. would retaliate
with overwhelming force. The United States is likely to use nuclear weapons if North
Korea fired a nuclear armed ICBM at Guam.
 a
J

Question 5: What are the chances of a peaceful resolution between U.S. and North
Korea?

Answer: lt depends what you mean by peaceful resolution. lt is possible that both
sides will manage this crisis and return to the status quo. lt has been reported that the
U.S. is talking to North Korean diplomats at their UN Mission in New York City. lt is
unlikely that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons as part of a broader political
settlement. ln order for a peaceful resolution the U.S. would have to accept a nuclear
armed North Korea in exchange for assurances via on-site inspections, that the status
quo will remain. ln other words, North Korea keeps its nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles but does not test them further. ln exchange, the United State provides either
or both diplomatic recognition and assurances that it will not attack North Korea.
While a peaceful resolution of the stand-off between North Korea and the United
States is the only logical way out of the impasse, bellicose rhetoric and misperception
and miscalculation could occur at any moment and spark armed conflict.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Canvassing the
Contingencies," Thoyer Consultoncy Background Brief , August 13, 20L7. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 1,

chuyon gia qu6c to gidi ddp c6u h6i 'nong': cuQc

chi6n My - Tri6u
co xdy ra?
06:40 ngdy 14t0$t2017, Tintuc.vn

Theo GS carl rhayer, chuyon gia cria Hqc vien

Qu6c pho,ng
sai l6m d ci Washington gi;h l.ir,"onb-.0 ill6la-V-r, Udt c*Australia, nhong tinh todn
,i tuc ndo vd k6o theo mot
cuQc xung dQt qu6n sW.

Cing thing gioa trdn b6n ddo Tri6u Ti6n gia tdng nhong
nqay qua khi r6ng th6ng Donald
Trump de dga trut "lfta vd giqn oq cfug.t-irns
i1"ay; leniri,-eitrrien neu Binh Nhuong ti6p
tr'rc de doa M!. eu6c
sia D-6ns Bic A oaq hlbe,l's we; ;6 d;;; .iraii'ii ke hoach t6n
cong khu vuc xung quanh cldo Guam, noi c6
nnia, .6n .* quan sqr M!.

Gi6a su Carl Thayer.

Gioi quan sdt khong loqi tru khd ndng su hi6u

lam hay nhong tinh to6n sai cia
s6 dav tinh hinh tdimuc nsut.ap ri;tnt
#l'ioi'liliun tranh.
hai b6n

chia s6 voi ch(ng t6i, Gido su Gido su carr rhayer,

chuyn gia tqi Hgc viQn eu6c
phong Australia, s6 binh rufn 16 thrOm
v6 ring ih'end irry - rrieu vd nguy co xung dQt
tr6n b6n ddo Tri6u Ti6n hiQn nay.

- 6'g danh gia nhu th| nito vd tinh hinh hien nay tr6n bitn ddo Tri6u Tin?
 2

- Tinh hinh bdn ddo Tri6u Tien ldr khOng th6 Cloan tru0c b&i cd My vdr Tri6u Tien c6 th6
hanh dQng do hi6u nhAm CI6i phuong vii d5n toi sqr gia tdng nhanh chong v6 l\rc lugng
quAn su.

Nhdr lanh dao Tri6u Ti6n Kim Jong Un co th6 ti6p tUc dua ra loi de dga hoic phong th[r
ten trla dan dao xu6ng bi6n d6 ki6m tra phdn Ong c0a T6ng th6ng My Donald Trump.

My, thong qua hinh inh vQ tinh vd c6c phuong tien ky thu?t kh6c,.co th6 d6 dirng hi6u
sai dQng tfrai trl6n khai t6n hla dan dao hoic phong t6n lfra tu Tri6u Ti6n lir mQt cuOc
tjn cong nhim vdo ddo Guam, Hdn Qu6c hay Nhqt Bin. Di6u niy co tn6 d5n toi phin
ung quAn sLr vd nhanh chong k6o theo mOt cu0c chi6n todn diQn.

- Cang thang Mf Tri6u tdc dOng nhu th{ nao toi khu v4c Dong Bdc A?

Cing thing b6n ddo Trieu Tien dnh hudng tcvi.tet ci cdc nudc & Dong Bic A g6m
trrOn
Trung Qu6c, Nga, Nhft Bdn, Hdn Qu6c. Trung Qu6c da thqg hiQn nh0ng dQng thai
phong ngr,Ia bing cdch ting cuong quAn dQi dqc bien gi0i Tri6u Ti6n. BAt k!,cuQc xung
-ung
dqt n5o cO in6 OAn tcyiviec hdng trim ngdn nguoi ti nan Tri6u Tien d6 sang Trung
L
Quoc.

Mlt cu1c tap tln cla Tri6u Ti6n

Ci Hdrn Qu6c vi
Nhflt Bdn, noi co lqrc lugng quAn sr,r M!, c0ng co th6 ld muc ti6u t5n
cOng cOa Tri6u Tien. Neu cdc hQ th6ng phong th0 t6n lira dan_dao c0a My nhu THAAD
(H9 th6ng phong thrl ten lira tAm cao giai doan cu6i) khong th6.danh chin tdn lia Tri6u
Tien, thubng vong dAn sU d Hirn Qu6c vd/hoic NhQt Bdn lir dieu kho tr5nh.
 3

Mgi xung dQt vu trang d6u ldm gi6n doqn hoat dQng giao thuong vd dnh hudng toi kinh
te cia t6t cd c6c nuoc Dong Bic A. Trong truong hgp xdu nh6t, Binh Nhuong hofc
Washington co th6 dung tcri vU khl hqt nh6n, k6o theo ket cqc thdm kh6c.

- Vai trd cla Trung Qudc trong cu\c khrtng ho&ng ld gi, thwa fing?

- Trung Qu6c.vd M'! cleu quan tAm toi viec phi hat nhin hoa tr6n b6n d6o Tri6u Ti6n.
Tuy nhi6n, Bic Kinh co th6 ch6p nhin viQc Binh Nhuong co loai vu khi niy mi6n lit
nuoc lSng gieng khong tiep tuc cdc vu th& nghiQm.

Bic Kinh vd Washington cOng co m6i quan tim ri6ng. Trung Qu6c phin d6i viec sir
dr;ng v0 lUc d6 giii quyet cuQc khring hodng hiQn nay. H9 khong mu6n th5y mQt b6n
ddo Trieu Tien th6ng nnSt duoi tay Hdn Qu6c vir M!.

Trung Qu6c dang dd dit thUc thi lenh trung phqt mcri c0a Li6n Hgp Qu6c l6n Tri6u
Ti6n, nhung kh6ng mu6n thdy su thay d6i ch6 O9 hay b6t 6n chinh tri d Binh Nhuong.
Truy6n thong Trung Qu6c cinh b6o rdng, n6u Tririiu Tien t5n cOng My truoc thi hg v5n
gio thai dQ trung l6p, nhung nguoc lai, n6u M! khoi mdo cuOc chi6n, Trung Qu6c s6
dap trd.

- Hien tqi, Tdng th1ng M! Trump c6 lva chan ndo de d1i phd voi Tri6u Tien? Na ca
cung rdn hsn so noi circh xir $ crta nhhnE ngwoi tin nhiQm hay kh5ng?

- Ong Trump sO dua ra quyet dinh dua theo phin ung tiep theo c0a Binh Nhuong. HiQn
tEi, tSng th6ng My v5n chon phuong 6n vua de dga sr? dqrng v0 lqrc, vua theo du6i mOt
th6a thuQn ngoqi giao vdi Trir0u Ti6n.

Hi6n chua rO ong Trump s6 phin ung ra sao n6u ong Kim Jong Un lap lai lcvi de dqa
t6n c6ng Guam, My hoic c6c d6ng minh Hdn Qu6c vir NhQt Bdn.

Tuy nhi6n, l\4V cAn chu5n bi phuong 6.n doi pho voi 4 tinh hu6ng khAn c6p g6.m:]1)
Trieu Tien tiep tuc tht? ten hla tAm ngSn vdr t6n l&a dAn dAo tdm trung; (2) Trieu Tir3n
thir nghiQm t6n lt}a dan dAo xuy6n lUc dia (ICBM); (3) Trieu Tien thir t6n hla ve phia
ddo Guam (ho{c Nhft Bdn, Hdn Qu6c) va (a) Trieu Tien ti6p tUc thl} v0 khi hEt nh6n.

Trong tinh hu6ng diu ti6n, My co th6 n6 lqrc b5n ha c6c t6n l&a ndy vir phong t6n hla
dap trd vdo c5c co s& t6n lt}a c0a Tri6u Tien. Tuy nhi6n, n6u t6n hla cia Binh Nhu0ng
duqc phong tu c6c thiCt bi di dQng, Washington s6 kho dap tri.

Trong truong hop thu 2, Washington co tfr6 tien hirnh cuOc t6n cong dU tru neu ph6t
hiQn duEc Binh Nhu0ng dang chuin bi phong mqt ICBM hofc M'! co th,5 c6 Oin ha t6n
hla vd sau do t6n cong cin cu ncvi t6n lrla duEc phong l6n.

N6u Tri6u Ti6n phong ten lrla vdo Guam hoic Nhit Bdn/ Hdn Qu6c, thi M'y s6 trd dOa
m?nh mC. D6i voi truong hqp kh5n c5p thu 4, n6u Tri6u Tien thfr vU khi hEt nh6n, My
s6 trd dOa bing c6ch t6n c6ng co sd vU khi hat nh6n c0a d6i phuong.
 4

CAn luu f ring Tri6u Ti6n di tri6n khai rocket, ph6o binh vd t6n hla dqc theo bi6n gi0i
voi Hdn Qu6c. Tri6u Ti6n c6 th6 ph6 hriy Seoul trudc khiWashington tung don d6p tri.
Tinh hinh khAn c6p khi do O6 dang bo thang nhanh chong vdr d5n toi mOt cuQc chi6n
todrn diQn, trong d6 hai b6n c6 th6 sfr dqng vU khi hat nhAn.

- Binh Nhwdng de dqa tiln c1ng Guam. MQt cu}c chi6n liu co xity ra? Trong tinh hudng
nay, Mi sE trd dfia bang cdch ndo?

$:3'!:'{: }

Vt tri rldo Guam, ciln c0 khdng qufin Mt!'trn b|n *0. tr^nn: SAC

- Trieu Ti6n de dga tAn cong ddo Guam vd s6 ldp lai nh0ng tuyen b6 nhu v6y, nhung
di6u ndy s6 kh6ng xdy ra. Nh0ng loi de dQa c0a 6ng Kim Jong Un n6n duqc xem ld sLr
cuong dieu. Tinh hinh kinh doanh d Hirn Qu6c vin diSn ra nhu binh thuong vd-khOng
co d5i hi6u cho th6y clQng thdi so t6n dAn hoac dieu dQng qudn sqr (tr6n d6t, bi6n va
tren khong) & d6o Guam.
 5

Neu Trieu Ti6n t6n c6ng Guam, M! s6 tri dUa bing s0c manh 6p ifdo. Chinh quy6n
T6ng th6ng Trump co th6 sG sr? dr;ng v0 khi hat nhAn n6u Binh Nhu0ng phong mQt
ICBM c6 mang d6u dan hat nhdn vC phia Guam.

- Co h\i Od lrty vit Tri6u Ti6n gidi quyet cang thing bdng bien phdp hoa binh ld bao
nhi6u thua 6ng?

- Co th6 hai b6n s6 ki5m so6t durqc kh0ng hodng hiQn nay vd dua tinh hinh trO lai nhu
truoc. Co thong tin ring M'i dang c6 c6c tuQc tiep x(c voi c6c nhi ngoai giao Tri6u
Tien tai thdnh ph6 New York.

Co lC Tri6u Ti6n sG kh6ng tir bd vU khi hat nhin nhu mQt phAn c0a cuOc hoa gi6i chinh
tri l0n hon. D6 gidi quyet-tinh hinh theo cdch hoa binh, M! se phdi chAp nhQn mQt Tri6u
TirOn co v0 khi hqt nhdn 06 06i l6y hien trqng an todn tr6n b6n ddo.

Noi c6ch kh6c, Triu Ti6n duy tri vU khi hat nhin vdr t6n hla dqn dqo nhung kh6ng thUc
hiQn c6c vU thrl nghiem nira. D6i lai, Washington ddm bdo sE khong tdn cong Binh
Nhu0ng.
..
Trong khi mQt gidi phdp hoa binh giua Tri6u Ti6n vd My lq c6cLr hgp lf duy nhSt nhem
gi0p hai b6n tho6t kh6i bC t5c, nh0ng loi 16 de dga, sg nhdm l6n vd nh0ng tinh todn sai
l6m co th6 xdy ra bdt cO l0c ndo vd k6o theo xung dQt vU trang.