CBRE Research

The Netherlands
REAL ESTATE
MARKET OUTLOOK
Contents
Executive Summary 3

Economic Outlook 5

Investment Outlook 7

Debt Market 11

Non-listed Market 15
 EXECUTIV E SUMMA RY

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
 ECONOMIC O UTL O O K
EMBEDDED UPTURN

Economic growth outpacing EU-average

Figure 1: GDP Growth and core inflation above the EU-average

PRUDENT RECOVERY ESTABLISHED RECOVERY

1.9%
AT
1.7% BE
CPI (exc. Energy) '15Q3 % y-o-y

1.5%

1.3% DK NL

1.1% PT
IT DL
0.9% EU
0.7% ES
FR UK
0.5%
0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
GDP '15Q3 % y-o-y

Source: Eurostat, December 2015; compiled by CBRE Research

CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
 INVESTMENT O UTL O O K
T R A N S I T I O N O F C A P I TA L

Appetite remains strong

Revival of retail

Figure 2: Investment volume ( Bn)

x Bn
Office Retail Industrial Residential Hotel Other
14

12

10

0
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: CBRE Research

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 INVESTMENT O UTL O O K
R E A L E S TA T E C A P I TA L F L O W S I N T O T H E
NETHERLANDS 2015

AMERICAS
2.18 bn
18.8%

NETHERLANDS
TOTAL
11.6 bn
UNITED
KINGDOM
1.60 bn
13.8% GERMANY
0.98 bn
8.4% MIDDLE
EAST
0.11 bn
FRANCE 0.9%
0.32 bn
2.8%

APAC
0.59 bn
5.1%

EUROPE
DOMESTIC
OTHER
5.20 bn
0.61 bn
44.9%
5.3%

Source: CBRE Research

CBRE
CBRE RESEARCH
B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE
CBRERESEARCH
B.V. 2016
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 INVESTMENT O UTL O O K
T R A N S I T I O N O F C A P I TA L

The transition of capital

Figure 3: Highly diversified purchaser types in the market (2015)

5%
11%

39%
14%

23%
8%

Institutional / Investment fund

Private investor
Listed / REIT
Private equity
Property company (privately owned)
Other

Source: CBRE Research

CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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DEBT MARKET
 DEBT MA RKET
DIVERSIFIED LANDSCAPE

Moving up the cycle Pfandbrief banks

Market opening up Insurance companies

High street banks Investment banks

CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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 DEBT MA RKET
DIVERSIFIED LANDSCAPE

Debt funds

Niche lenders

Figure 4 : Indicative risk-return profiles

100 bps 150 bps 200 bps 250 bps 300 bps 350 bps 400 bps 450 bps 500 bps + Volume Risk

High street banks 0 0

Pfandbrief banks + --

Insurance companies + -

Investment banks ++ +

Debt Funds + ++

CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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 DEBT MA RKET
DIVERSIFIED LANDSCAPE

Outlook Loan sales

CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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NON-LISTED MARKET
 NON -L ISTED MA RKET
INCREASING LIQUIDITY

Different flavors Strengthening secondary market

Figure 5: Historic PropertyMatch European trading volumes

250 40
Trade Volume (LHS) Reported Number of Trades (RHS)
Millions

200
30

150
20
100

10
50

0 0
Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15
Sep-09
Dec-09

Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10

Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11

Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12

Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13

Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14

Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15

Source: PropertyMatch

CBRE B.V. 2016 THE NETHERLANDS REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 CBRE RESEARCH
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RESEARCH CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL ADVISORS

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CBRE B.V. 2016