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R. Lowenthal Supply Co.

moving periods the common three month 0.7 DAMPING FACTOR 0.6

Month Sales Nave MSE moving average MSE exponential smoothingMSE exponential smoothingMSE
you have voided the first three months before you forecast
January 11 #N/A #N/A
February 14 11 9 #N/A 11 9 11 9
March 16 14 4 #N/A 11.9 16.81 12.2 14.44
April 10 16 36 13.6666666667 13.4444444444 13.13 9.7969 13.72 13.8384
May 15 10 25 13.3333333333 2.7777777778 12.191 7.890481 12.232 7.66182
June 17 15 4 13.6666666667 11.1111111111 13.0337 15.73154 13.3392 13.4015
July 11 17 36 14 9 14.22359 10.39153 14.80352 14.4668
August 14 11 9 14.3333333333 0.1111111111 13.256513 0.552773 13.282112 0.51536
September 17 14 9 14 9 13.4795591 12.3935 13.5692672 11.7699
October 12 17 25 14 4 14.53569137 6.429731 14.94156032 8.65278
November 14 12 4 14.3333333333 0.1111111111 13.774983959 0.050632 13.764936192 0.05525
December 16 14 4 14.3333333333 2.7777777778 13.8424887713 4.654855 13.8589617152 4.58404
January 11 16 25 14 9 14.4897421399 12.1783 14.7153770291 13.804
February 11 13.6666666667
March 11 most recent sales
short term forecasting tool in the succeding period
MSE FORECASTING SAMP 16.00 4.86 6.66 MOST R
RECENT
OLDEST
nave d7=c6 and drag
moving click moving all the sales interval 3 output f7
exponential click exponential input all sales damping factor 0.7 output i6

short term is used in making a forecasdt in the next succesing period


try to forecast sales from industrial for the month of february

WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE


SQUARED ERROR how do we do that?
what do you think is the sales for the month of february

14.5 20.25
12.6666666667 5.4444444444 which is better among the three models?
13.5 12.25 there are many ways in whoch we can diffrentiate the forecast diff. models
15.1666666667 17.3611111111 mean avarage error
13.6666666667 0.1111111111 mean squared error
13.5 12.25
15 9
14 0 FIRST HALF SAMPLE IS WARM UP SAMPLE AND THE SECOND FORECASTING SAMPLE
13.8333333333 4.6944444444
14.6666666667 13.444444444

3 8.12 THE LOWER THE MSE THE MORE RELIABLE IN FORECASTING (BETTER )
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Wallace Garden Supply
time use short term forecast if isa lng ka year like year 12 but if layo na use regression
Year Demand series mse nave mse SUMMARY OUTPUT
1 4 3.273 0.528529
2 6 4.328 2.795584 4 4 Regression Statistics
3 4 5.383 1.912689 6 4 Multiple R 0.9069144874
4 5 6.438 2.067844 4 1 R Square 0.8224938875
5 10 7.493 6.285049 5 25 Adjusted R Square 0.8027709861
6 8 8.548 0.300304 10 4 Standard Error 1.7126976772
7 7 9.603 6.775609 8 1 Observations 11
8 9 10.658 2.748964 7 4
9 12 11.713 0.082369 9 9 ANOVA
10 14 12.768 1.517824 12 4 df SS
11 15 13.823 1.385329 14 1 Regression 1 122.32727273
12 14.878 15 Residual 9 26.4
13 15.933 Total 10 148.72727273
14 16.988
15 18.043 Coefficients Standard Error
Intercept 2.2181818182 1.1075498484
MSE average 2.135067 3.833333 Year 1.0545454545 0.1632993162

mas better ang time series

if forecasted for the year 15 if 12,13,14 just edit .. :)


forecasting equation is Fsub t= a +b*t
f sub t =2.218+1.055t
for t =15
f sub t= 2.218+1.055(15)
18.043
ar 12 but if layo na use regression

MS F Significance F
122.3273 41.70248 0.0001170771
2.933333

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%


Upper 95.0%
2.002783 0.07621 -0.2872700045 4.723634 -0.28727 4.723634
6.457746 0.000117 0.6851367368 1.423954 0.685137 1.423954
Year Number of issues Nave mse moving avemse weighted moving average
1985 332
1986 694 332 131044 #N/A
1987 518 694 30976 #N/A
1988 222 518 87616 514.6667 85653.77778 545.6666666667
1989 209 222 169 478 72361 399.3333333333
1990 172 209 1369 316.3333 20832.11111 264.8333333333
1991 366 172 37636 201 27225 192.6666666667
1992 512 366 21316 249 69169 275.1666666667
1993 667 512 24025 350 100489 406.6666666667
1994 571 667 9216 515 3136 565.1666666667
1995 575 571 16 583.3333 69.44444444 593.1666666667
1996 865 575 84100 604.3333 67947.11111 589
1997 609 865 65536 670.3333 3761.777778 719.3333333333
1998 683

MSE 34549.28571 38828.19048

exponential smoothing
mse exponential smoothing MSE Regression model
#N/A SUMMARY OUTPUT
332 131044
549.2 973.44 Regression Statistics
104760.1111 530.48 95159.9104 Multiple R 0.5116794914
36226.77778 345.392 18602.77766 R Square 0.2618159019
8618.027778 263.5568 8382.647626 Adjusted R Squ 0.1947082566
30044.44444 208.62272 24767.60826 Standard Error 189.43998124
56090.02778 303.049088 43660.48363 Observations 13
67773.44444 428.4196352 56920.59047
34.02777778 571.56785408 0.322458256 ANOVA
330.0277778 571.227141632 14.23446026 df SS MS
76176 573.4908566528 84977.58066 Regression 1 140012.7 140012.7
12173.44444 748.3963426611 19431.34035 Residual 11 394762.6 35887.51
Total 12 534775.2

34660.20238 32824.59432 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat


Intercept -54737.362637 27958.12 -1.957834
Year 27.736263736 14.04223 1.975204

if forecasted for the year 1998 if 12,13,14 just edit .. :)


forecasting equation is Fsub t= a +b*t
f sub t =-54737.363 + 27.736t
for t =1998
f sub t =-54737.363 + 27.736(1998)
679.165
F Significance F
3.901432 0.073872

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%


0.076095 -116273 6798.046 -116273 6798.046
0.073872 -3.170467 58.64299 -3.170467 58.64299

998 if 12,13,14 just edit .. :)