Week 4 - Anova

M5-V1 Introduction to ANOVA
0:04
I was sitting in my office and talking on the phone. In the hallway, I heard some fake chit
chat of a few colleagues. Meanwhile, Marley, an energetic and very open person who I
was talking to on the phone, was very interested in telling me this.
0:21
I have finally persuaded my management to change the implementation of the policy we
talked about. Remember that our ANOVA analysis showed that the underlying factor
had absolutely no effect on our KPIs. I'm so happy that we have found this and that the
plans have changed.
0:40
So why am I telling you this? Well, this is one of the many times that I have realized that
a tool as basic and intuitive as the ANOVA technique can really make a difference,
and make people understand how something works, or how it doesn't work, and use this
knowledge to make better informed decisions.
1:01
In this series of three videos you will learn how to perform such ANOVA analysis.
1:08
ANOVA stands for analysis of variance.
1:12
In this first video I will explain the basics.
1:16
In the second video I will show you how to interpret the outcome. And in the third and last
video I will show you how to validate the outcomes.
1:28
Remember that you saw this diagram before in the introduction video on data analysis.
1:35
This diagram helps you to select the appropriate tool for the correct problem.
1:40
So when do we use ANOVA? We see that you have to look at the type of data.
1:47
And ANOVA is the appropriate statistical technique when the Y variable is numerical and
the X variable is categorical.
1:57
Let me start with an example in which I illustrate when to use the ANOVA technique.
2:03
Imagine you work in a factory producing coffee and you are in charge of the quality
inspections. The raw coffee beans are roasted before they are grounded and
packed. And one of the important quality metrics in the moisture content of the coffee
beans. If there is too much moisture the coffee will rot very quickly. If there is too little
moisture, the coffee will not taste too good. And as a quality inspector, one of the
problems that you have noticed was that this moisture percentage is not always within
specifications.
2:34
How would you solve this problem?
2:38
Well, you start a project and at one point you have an idea. There are four different
machines in the factory that make this coffee. Could it be that the machine influences
moisture contents of the coffee?
2:52
In order to answer this question, you first collect some data. From each machine, you
collect ten batches of coffee, and measure for each batch, the moisture percentage.
3:04
You also record which machine the batch was made on.
3:09
This is the collected data.
3:12
What will be your next step? This is a graph of the data. It shows the moisture percentage
per machine and what do you see? There appears to be a difference between the
machines. More specifically coffee produced on machine 1 shows a higher moisture
content on average at least than coffee produced on machine 2. And this is exactly how
ANOVA will turn out to work. It makes groups according to your categorical influence
factor. And it tests whether these groups have equal means or not.
3:45
Note that we have only measured ten data points per machine. Is this enough to conclude
that there are differences between these machines In the whole population? Suppose
that we take a second sample tomorrow. Do you expect machine one to still give the
highest moisture percentage?
4:04
So, can we generalize these conclusions to the entire population of batches? Well, to
answer this question we will perform a statistical analysis to generalize our findings from
the sample. But which statistical analysis should you use? For that, you have to think in
terms of Y and X variables. The Y variable is the variable you wish to understand or
explain. In a sigma project, this is nearly always your CDQ. In this example it is moisture
percentage.
4:37
Now look at your X variable. That is the variable that potentially influences your Y.
4:43
That here in your example is the machine.
4:46
Now ask yourself, what type of variables are these? Well, your Y variable, the moisture
percentage is numerical. And your X variable, machine Is categorical, so use the
tree diagram to see which analysis method you should use, and that is here ANOVA.
5:05
So, ANOVA is used to study the relationships between a numerical Y, moisture
percentage, and a categorical X variable machine. ANOVA can be performed in three
steps, the first step is to organize your data. The X and Y variables should have their
separate columns. Each row in your data set needs to contain one unit, a batch in our
example. The dataset you saw was not in this format. Each column contained ten
measurements from each machine.
5:39
If you do have a dataset that is in the correct format, you can obviously skip this step.
5:45
In Minitab you can stack your data. In the data menu under Stack, you have the possibility
to stack columns. You entered a columns you want, and the result should look like this.
5:58
We see that in our example we have two columns with 40 units. Each row now contains
a batch that we have measured, and moisture percentage and machine are the variables
in the columns. With data structured like this, we can go to step two and actually perform
the ANOVA. The third step consist of an assumption check because after performing an
ANOVA, we need to verify the reliability of the results. Steps two and three are discussed
in the next two videos.
6:31
Okay, let's summarize. ANOVA is a suitable statistical method if you are comparing
means across various groups. The analysis consists of three steps, organizing your
data, performing the ANOVA, and performing residual analysis just to check if the
assumptions are met.
M5-V2 ANOVA analysis
0:05
Remember, that ANOVA consists of three steps. In the previous video, we talked about
the first step, when to use an ANOVA and how to organize your data. In this video, I will
explain how to perform a basic ANOVA. Reusing the example from the previous video.
And in the next video, I will show you how to validate the conclusions using a residual
analysis.
0:28
Okay, we were studying the moisture percentage of batches of coffee and we were
wondering if this is influenced by the machine the batch is produced on. Therefore, the
moisture percentages is your Y variable or the CTQ in your project. The machine is our
X variable or the influence factor. Moisture is a numerical variable and machine is a
categorical variable. Using our tree diagram, we see that we need to perform an ANOVA
test just to see if machine is a significant influence factor.
1:03
These are the three steps of ANOVA. We will focus on the main analysis step. The goal
is to study if the group means are identical for each level of your X variable. Which means
that we will study if the moisture percentage is equal for each machine.
1:21
This was our collected data for machine. Now, in order to perform this ANOVA step, we
will go, of course, to Minitab. Please pause the video, load your data before continuing.
1:36
This is what your data in minitab should look like. You have Machine 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the
first four columns but the first step of ANOVA is to organize your data. And I have already
done this by stacking my data into the column Moisture and Machine.
1:55
ANOVA is a statistical technique so you can find it under the menu Stat. Under ANOVA
we take the One Way option. Now, Minitab asked you, what is your Response? That's
your Y variable or the CTQ? And that's of course Moisture. Now the next question is,
what's Factor? Well, factor is influence factor or X variable and that's Machine.
2:23
We also go to Graph and we ask for an Individual value plot. You can uncheck the other
plots because we don't need them. Okay, under Options, we uncheck the Assume equal
variances option. When starting this analysis, we do not know whether we can assume
this or not.
2:46
You can see the video test for equal variances for more information on this assumption.
Okay, let's study the output.
2:56
You will get an Individual Value Plot and you will also see that you have quite some output
in your session window.
3:08
The Individual Value Plot shows the measured moisture percentage for each machine.
The blue line connects the group means. On first sight, we see differences in the group
means, as the line is not horizontal.
3:21
Machine 1 and 3 appear to produce coffee with relatively high moisture content. Now that,
you will never get exactly horizontal lines even if the group means are in reality equal.
Especially for small data sets, you should statistically test whether the differences
between the means are real or due to random fluctuations.
3:44
That is why, we look at the statistical analysis in the session window.
3:48
The p-value indicates the chance that such difference occur due to random fluctuation. In
this example, it is 1.2%. As the probability that this difference occurred by chance is so
low, we conclude that the machines differ. In fact, the threshold is often sets to 5% and
the p-value here is below this 5%. This means that the effect is significant and that it
translates to the population. If the p-value would have been bigger that 0.05, it means you
either did not find the real difference or you did not gather enough data to prove it.
4:35
The statistical tests involving p-values are formally called hypothesis tests. For this
ANOVA analysis the hypothesis that all group means are equal is our null hypothesis.
The hypothesis that there is a significant difference between the group means is the
alternative hypothesis. In this case, the low p-value suggests that this is very unlikely that
the group means are equal. Thus, we can reject a null hypothesis and support the
alternative.It is important to note that the p-value only tells you where an influence factor
has a significant effect. This does not mean that it has a large effect. So, we also have to
wonder whether the influence factor is relevant. Let's have a look at how relevant the
effect of machine in our example is. We go back to Minitab.
5:30
To see how relevant and influence factor is, we can take a look at the R-squared. The R-
squared Always lies between zero and 100% and tells you how much of the variation in
your Y variable is explained by your X variable.
5:47
In our example, the R squared is 26% so the influence factor machine accounts for or
explains 26% of the variation in the CTQ moisture percentage.
6:01
Let's have a closer look at the R squared. Our data looked like this and we see that the
machines have some effect on the moisture content. Now consider the circled
measurements in the graph. There is a difference between these two measurements and
it cannot be explained by the machine as they have been produced on the same machine.
6:21
This is part of the other 74% of variation that is not explained by the machines but is as a
result of other factors.
6:31
Consider that this was the measured data.
6:34
What would you think the R-squared would be for this dataset?
6:38
Measurements are closer to the average, meaning that the machine explained more of
the variation. The R-squared will thus be higher, 58%.
6:49
We say that an influence factor is more relevant in the right example than it is in the left
example. The R squared measures the impact of the influence factor on the dependent
variable. If it is larger, we can say the influence factor is more important or relevant. it is
a big fish. If the R squared is small this means the explanatory power of the influence
factor is weak and that vital influence factors are missing in other words, this influence
factor is a small fish. Summarizing, the p-value tells us whether the difference between
the means of the machines are significant, meaning, that these differences are real and
not due to random fluctuations. The R squared tells us how relevant the effect of the
machines is. Always remember that ANOVA consists of three steps. And that before you
can be sure that the conclusions in your second step are valid, you will have to perform
a residual analysis. And, for that, see the next video.
M5-V3 ANOVA residual analysis
0:04
The residual analysis is a vital part of any statistical method. In the previous two videos,
you learned when and how to perform an ANOVA analysis. The P-value we use in a main
analysis is only valid if the assumptions are satisfied. In this video, you will learn how to
validate these assumptions using a residual analysis. Remember that we were wondering
in the moisture content in coffee beans differs between the four machines it can be
produced on. Moisture was our numerical y variable, and machine was our categorical x
variable. We performed an ANOVA analysis and these were the results we obtained. Our
ANOVA analysis gave us a p-value, which shows a statistical significant difference
between the average moisture percentages of the machines, because the p-value is
below 0.05. This difference in the means can also be seen in the individual value plot, as
the line connecting the means is not horizontal. Let's take a look at the R squared. This
shows that the influence factor machine explains 26% of the variation in the moisture
percentage. However, before we can completely trust these conclusions, we have to
validate the assumptions underlying the ANOVA. These checks are called the residual
analysis, and this is the last and final step of your ANOVA. As you probably remember,
ANOVA consists of three steps in total.
To validate the assumptions, we will check if the residuals are normally distributed and if
there are any outliers or other irregularities present.
But what is a residual? Let's take a look at the data to answer this question. Every dot in
the graph is one measurement. We also know the value that we would expect from a
measurement for Machine 1. That is the estimated mean. So there is a difference between
the measurement and our expectation. This difference is not explained by our influence
factor machine. It is left over variation, and this difference is called the residual. The
residuals are calculated by subtracting the expected value from each observation.
In the case of ANOVA, this expected value is the mean output over the relevant machine.
This is our data in a time order. Our categorical variable has four different groups and the
red lines are the group means. Then the residuals will look like this, with the mean of the
residuals equal to zero by construction. Okay, let's go back to our moisture example and
let's perform a residual analysis with Minitab. Now, pause the video, load your data into
Minitab before continuing.
Once you loaded your data into Minitap, this is what your data file would look like. You
have Machine 1 in the first column, Machine 2, Machine 3, and Machine 4. Note that I
already stacked my data into a column Moisture, and Machine. Okay, let's look at our
residual analysis.
We can find this in our ANOVA menu, which was under Stat > ANOVA > One Way.
Well, maybe you still have it there, but otherwise, fill in your response, which is moisture,
and your factor, which is machine. Your residual analysis can be found under the options
graph, and then half way, it ask you for residual plots. If you click on the four in one, you
get all plots once. Furthermore, you can also unclick the interval plot, because we don't
need it. Well, that's it. OK > OK, and then this is your four in one plot. Let's study the four
in one plot. Remember, that we needed to check two things in the residual analysis.
Let's start with the normality assumption. These can be checked in the probability plot.
Are your residuals normally distributed? Yes, they are. Now, let's have a look at the
second assumption That there are no outliers or irregularities in the residuals. To check
this assumption, we take a look at the four and one plot again. But now, we look at the
line graph. We see that there are no outliers or strange patterns present. This means that
this assumption is also satisfied, and that the original analysis is valid.
Let's have a look at another example, and assume that these are our residuals. We see
in the probabiity plot that the residuals are not normally distributed. And in the line plot,
we see outliers in the residuals. This means that if these were your residuals, the
assumptions of the ANOVA are violated. This implies that the conclusion in step two
would not have been valid, or at least they're not very precise. If this is the case, you can
perform a Kruskal-Wallis analysis.
Outliers
In summary, in this series of videos I have explained that the ANOVA is a technique to
test whether a categorical influence factor X has a significant effect on a numerical Y.
After organizing your data in the first step You run the analysis in the second step and
interpret the p value for significance, and the r squared for importance. In the third step,
you will validate your conclusions by checking whether the residuals are normally
distributed. And whether they don't contain any outliers or other strange patterns.
M5-V4 Kruskal-Wallis test
0:04
Let's talk about the Kruskal-Wallis Test. After this video, you will be able to perform this
test and you will be able to interpret the results. But first, let's look at when to use the
Kruskal-Wallis test.
0:18
Our tree diagram shows that it is an alternative to the ANOVA technique. And hence, the
Kruskal-Wallis test is used to analyze the relationship between a numerical CTQ and a
categorical influence factor.
0:34
The Kruskal-Wallis test is a non-parametric test. This means that there is no specific
distribution assumed on the residuals. Remember that the ANOVA was based on the
assumption that the residuals are normally distributed, and that the residuals contain no
irregularities such as outliers. Of course, if you let go of assumptions, the Kruskal-Wallis
test will be less powerful than the ANOVA analysis. This means that you basically need
more data to show the same difference. Okay, now let's take a look at an example.
1:10
Consider a call center. Some of the employees received a training while some of the
others did not. You want to know whether this training has any effect on the total handling
time, that is, the total time it takes an employee to handle an incoming call. You have
measured the total handling time for some calls, and have recorded if the employee
handling the call has received this training. Remember that you should always start by
first identifying your Y variable. That is the total handling time in this example, and it is
numerical. Next, identify your influence factor X. That is training or not, and it is
categorical. Now, the tree diagram will tell you to analyze this relationship between total
handling time in training using an ANOVA analysis. Performing this analysis, you will get
in your third step, this four in one plot.
2:13
As you can see, the residuals are not normally distributed. Furthermore, the time graph
also shows some irregularities, hence we need to apply an alternative analysis technique.
In this case, we will apply the Kruskal-Wallis test.
2:31
The data that is gathered for the call center looks like this. Now, please pause the video,
load this data into Minitab before continuing.
2:44
After loading your data into Minitab, it should look like this, with Total Handling Time in
the first column and Training in the second column. Now I will show you how to perform
a Kruskal-Wallis analysis using Minitab. Of course, as it is a statistical test, you will find it
under the menu Stat. Remember that the Kruskal-Wallis test is a nonparametric test so
we go to the menu Nonparametrics. Here you will find the Kruskal-Wallis analysis.
3:17
Now, Minitab asks us for the response, which is your y or your CDQ. And that's the total
handling time. Next, we have to fill in the factor, which is the training. And okay.
3:33
Now, let's study the Minitab output which you can find in the Session window. The
Kruskal-Wallis analysis is based on medians which are reported. The median handling
time for employees with training is 191 seconds. And the median handling time for
employees without training is 246 seconds.
3:57
So it took people without training a lot more time to handle a phone call than it did for
people that received the training. The difference is nearly a minute.
4:09
The p-value is also given.
4:11
It is lower than 0.05. So the difference in medians that we found is statistically significant.
It can be concluded that the training is an effective method to lower the total handling time
by 55 seconds. Now, let's summarize. You learned to perform a Kruskal-Wallis test. This
test should be performed when the underlying assumptions of the ANOVA analysis are
not met.
4:42
To interpret the output, you have to look at the medians for each group and of course,
add the P-value to see if this difference is statistically significant.
M5-V5 Two sample t-test

0:04
I am sitting in a medium sized classroom. The sun is shining through the window on my
left. And around me are sitting about 20 other students. The professor in front of the group
is telling us a story about this man. It is this story of this man that made me realize that I
really like statistics. For me, his story shows me that statistics is about solving daily
problems and not about abstract formulas and mathematics.
0:34
So I really want to share this story with you as well. This man is called William Sealy
Gosset and he lived in England around 1900. He studied chemistry and mathematics
and upon graduating he started to work for the Guinness Brewery.
0:52
Gosset applied his statistical knowledge, to select the best-yielding varieties of barley. He
used trials. And as it is obviously very time consuming to produce barley, he could do not
too many trials. Therefore, he was faced with only very small samples. To deal with this,
he developed a special test to be able to draw conclusions from small samples. And to
be able to determine which barley had the best use.
1:23
This test is now widely known. It's the two sample t-test. For confidentiality reasons
Gosset wasn't allowed to publish the result under his own name. Therefore, he was forced
to publish his work under the pseudonym Student. And this is why the two sample t-test
is now also known as a student's t-test. For me the story shows that statistics is used to
solve problems people encounter in their work and who knows, maybe in your life as well.
1:56
The two sample t-test is a method to compare means of two groups. And this is the
learning objective for this video.
2:05
To stay in the spirit of Gosset, let's take a look at an example from agriculture.
2:11
Imagine you are growing tomatoes, and you wish to maximize the yield, and that is the
total amount of kilograms of tomatoes that you are harvest.
2:22
For this, you experiment with two different fertilizers. Let's call them fertilizer A and
fertilizer B.
2:30
You ask yourself, which fertilizer should I choose? Which fertilizer produces more
tomatoes than the other? In order to answer this question, you set up a small experiment.
2:43
How would you do that?
2:46
A possible way is to take a field and divide it into 20 pieces, and plant tomatoes here.
2:55
Then select ten pieces randomly and put fertilizer A on them.
3:02
You put fertilizer B on the other ten fields, or sub fields.
3:07
Next you wait until tomatoes are grown. You harvest them and you measure the yield for
each sub field. And this could be the data that you get.
3:17
Which fertilizer will you use?
3:22
Well, if you want to practice with the material, you can load this data into Minitab and try
to make graph. Don't forget to pause the video because you'll get the answer in the next
slide.
3:34
Ready?
3:36
The graph you could get looks something like this.
3:40
Of the two fertilizers, it's fertilizer B that results in a higher yield on average than fertilizer
A. This is confirmed by the mean. The mean yield of fertilizer A is equal to 5.66 and the
yield of fertilizer B is equal to 8.4 which is quite a lot higher.
4:01
So fertilizer B is better, right?
4:05
However, we have just measured ten fields for each type.
4:11
Do you think that this difference in mean is a coincidence or will it be consistently better
to use B?
4:20
Would you be confident in concluding that B has a higher production?
4:25
While this is where statistics will help you. You can use statistics to determine if this
difference in this small sample is a coincidence or whether it's not.
4:35
As we have two groups here, fertilizer A and fertilizer B, we will test this with the two
sample t-test. So, let's do that in Minitab.
4:46
I have loaded the data in Minitab and you see two columns. One for fertilizer A and one
for fertilizer B. Now, to perform a two sample t-test, you have to go to the statistics menu,
the Stat menu.
5:04
Under Basic Statistics, you will find the 2-Sample t-test.
5:12
You have to see how your data is organized to be able to choose whether you have both
samples all in one column, or each sample in its own column which is the case here.
5:25
Sample one we select fertilizer A, and sample two we select fertilizer B.
5:34
Okay.
5:37
Your Minitab session window should look something like this.
5:41
What do you think?
5:43
Is the fertilizer B still better fertilizer A?
5:47
Well we see the means again, and we can now also see that the variation is a little bit
higher for B than for A.
5:57
Let's focus on our means. How do we determine whether the difference is truly significant,
or maybe just a coincidence?
6:05
For this we have to look at the difference in the means and the P-Value. The estimated
difference between the mean of fertilizer A and B is 2.74. Now let's take a look at the p-
value. The p-value is 0.015.
6:26
But what does this mean?
6:28
The p-value expresses a probability.
6:32
The probability that given all the assumptions, the means of the two groups are equal to
each other.
6:41
So, the probability that the means are equal to each other. In this example, this probability
is 1.5%, it's relatively small.
6:53
So given this data of 20 fields, we can conclude that there's only a slight chance of 1.5%
that the influence factor fertilizer has no effect on yield and that the means are equal.
7:09
Hence, if we put it in more normal English, the p-value is smaller than 0.05 and we
conclude that the fertilizer has a significant effect on the yield.
7:23
Now, to actually get some knowledge out of this, we have to actually go back to our data
and look at the mean levels. Because if we now know that the fertilizers are different,
which is the one that we have to use? Well, that's obviously the one with the highest
mean, and that's fertilizer B.
7:43
Let's summarize this. The two sample t-test is a very basic test to analyze the differences
between means of two groups. The p-value can be used to calculate whether the
differences of the two means is coincidental, or truly significant. Especially for small
samples this is very useful. The two sample t-test is a very old test and forms the building
block of many other tests that have been developed since.
M5-V6 Test for equality of variances

0:04
Increasing variability always degrades the performance of a production system. This is
the law of variability. This law as discuss by Hopp & Spearman shows that understanding
variation is very important for the quality of a process. Therefore, I want to show you how
to study variability across groups. I will explain how to perform a test for equal variances.
Moreover, I will motivate why this is useful.
0:35
Let's go back to the example of four machines producing coffee. Together we investigated
that the average moisture contents of the coffee beans depended on the machine it was
produced on. The data look like this, we showed that the means of moisture percentage
differ across the four machines. But what about the variation within a machine? Machine
2 has a wide range of moisture contents, while Machine 4 appears a lot more consistent.
For producing consistent coffee, we probably want the machine with the smallest
variation.
1:11
Let's take a closer look at these two machines. The mean level is near equal to for
Machine 2 and 4 ,however the variation of the two machines may differ. This is the data
of Machine 2 in a time order, and here we see the data for Machine 4 in a time order. The
moisture content of Machine 2 goes up and down more than of Machine 4. If a machine
produces very inconsistently, meaning a lot of variation, this might cause problems. It
could lead to a lot of scrap and defects which will cost you money. If you want your
moisture percentage to be, for instance lower than 10.5% and there is a lot of variation
like in Machine 2, a lot of your batches will show a moisture percentage which is higher
than this 10.5. And these batches will have to be thrown away, or reprocessed, if the
variation is smaller, like in machine 4, this will happen less often. Therefore you will
probably like to know if one of the machine produces more consistently than the others.
2:22
The output of the ANOVA analysis already give us some information on the variation. We
see that machine four has a smallest standard deviation and therefore produces most
constantly within the sample at least. However, are these differences between this
standard deviation statistically significant? Or is it a coincidence that Machine 4 has the
smallest variation?
2:48
Let us use statistical test, the test of equality of variances to study this. Now, pause your
video, load the data into Minitab before continuing. This is what your daytime Minitab
should look like and now that I stacked my columns into one column with machine and
one column with Moisture percentage. Testing for equal variance is a statistical analysis,
so you will find it under the Start menu. Under ANOVA you will find a test for equal
variances here.
3:22
Okay, now Minitab asks you what is your response? That's your y variable and that's your
C to Q machine. The influence factor, can be filled in here and tha's of course moisture,
that's it.
3:38
Okay, your output consists of a graph as well as some output in the session Window.
3:47
Now let's study the output, the estimate for the standard deviation in moisture percentage
for the machines are given. To check if the differences between these are statistically
significant, we look at the p-value. Compute this according to Levene's method. In this
case, the p-value is relatively large. It shows up as that there is a 32.5% chance that the
difference between the machines is a chance fluctuation which is much larger than our
threshold of 5%. This means that we did not find evidence that there is a difference in
variation between the machines. And we cannot draw any conclusions on what machine
produces most consistently.
4:33
Now suppose that we would have had 50 measurements for each machine. Instead of
ten, this would give us a different dataset. The individual value plot would look like this,
the equal variance test now gives us base output.
4:51
What would you conclude? Do you see a statistical difference between the variances of
the machines? We see a very low P-Value, which means that there is a statistical
difference between the variances of the machine and we can conclude that Machine 4
produces most consistently.
5:11
The test for equal variances also has implications for the ANOVA analysis. Remember
that when we perform to ANOVA analysis, we selected the options and uncheck the books
assume equal variances. In this case, or first example We found no significant difference
between the variances of each machine. So actually we did not need to unchecked this
box. It is preferred not to do this because then the p value will be more precise.
5:41
Let's summarize, you now know why variances are important and learned how to compare
them across groups. You know that knowledge about equality of variances can be used
to improve the p-value of an ANOVA.
M5-V7 Exercise Productivity
0:05
Now, it is time to practice. And you will have to do the work yourself. So open up your
Minitab and get ready. You will do an exercise in which you explore the effect of a
categorical variable x on a numerical variable y.
0:22
Imagine you work in a factory. The y variable is the amount of produced goods measured
in kilograms. In a least [INAUDIBLE] project this variable is called a critical to quality
characteristic or in short just the CTQ.
0:38
The work is divided in three shifts, one in the morning, one in the evening, and one in the
night.
0:46
You want to know which shift is most productive, or are they all equally productive.
0:53
Now pause the video, open the data file, and try to answer this question using the
statistical techniques that you learned. Good luck.
1:09
So, do you have any answer to this question? Which shift is most productive? Or are they
all the same? What will you do if you were the plan manager? Which shift is the best and
which shift is the least productive?
1:26
Now, let's discuss the solution to this exercise.
1:30
First, you have to always ask yourself, what is my Y variable? And for this example, the
Y variable is the CTQ productivity.
1:40
And what type of variable is this? It's numerical. Now, you have to determine what the
influence factor or the X variable, is. This is the shift. What type of variable is this? It's
categorical.
1:58
Now look at the tree diagram, in any dates which technique to use? And for this example,
we will have to perform an ANOVA analysis.
2:08
The ANOVA analysis consist out of three steps.
2:13
The first step is to organize your data.
2:17
That is the y variable has to be in one column and the x variable in another. And if you
look at the data here, we see that we have a column for each category of our x variable.
So we first have to stack our data. You can do that by going to the Data menu > Stack >
Columns.
2:44
You have to stack all three, and let's store them in our current worksheet, give them the
appropriate names, Productivity.
3:00
And Shift and OK. Now, you should have two additional columns in your data. One,
Productivity and the other one, Shift.
3:14
Now, we are ready for the second step which is to perform the ANOVA analysis.
3:23
To perform an ANOVA we go to the Stat menu and you go to the menu ANOVA and we
use the One Way.
3:31
Now ask yourself, what's my response variable? That's always your Y or your CTQ and
that is Productivity in this example.
3:40
Now, what's your factor or your influence factor, your X variable, that is of course, Shift.
If you go to the menu graph, we can ask for Individual value plot, and uncheck the Interval
plot because we don't need it. To be a bit quicker in our final step, the third step we already
ask for Four in one plot of the residuals OK. Under, Options you can uncheck the Assume
equal variances box OK and OK. Now you get the four in one plot for your residuals, we
get the individual value plot for productivity vs shift, and you get a lot of output in your
session window.
4:25
Let's study this.
4:28
This is our output, let's take a look at the Individual Value Plot and what do you see? The
means are somewhat the same as the line is more a less horizontal and, there are two
outliers in shift three.
4:43
Let's take a look at the session window. Minitab provides us the Mean output per shift
which are equal to 318, 319, and 323. Is this small difference statistically significant or is
it just due to some random fluctuations? Let's take a look at our P value, it equals 0.805.
Which shows that there is not enough evidence for a difference in productivity due to the
shift.
5:12
However, we first need to perform a third step. We need to check the residuals before we
know whether this conclusion is valid. This is the third step of ANOVA.
5:25
In the four and one plots, we clearly see two outliers,. Both in the probability plot as well
as in the versus order plot. Hence the ANOVA assumptions are not satisfied. Therefore,
as an alternative, we can perform a Kruskal-Wallis analysis or you can investigate the two
outliers. If they are due to errors, or are not representative of the process you are
interested in. You can remove the observations and redo the original ANOVA analysis.
However, if you do this always remember to report that you have removed or adjusted
your data.
6:05
For now let's have a look at the Kruskal-Wallis analysis.
6:11
In Minitab you can find the Kruskal-Wallis analysis under the menu Stat. You go the Non-
parametrics menu and you find the Kruskal-Wallis over here, okay. What is your
response? Well that's Productivity of course. And the influence factor is Shift.
6:30
That's it, OK. You'll find your output in your session window and it looks like this.
6:40
The Kruskal-Wallis analysis gives a different conclusion than the ANOVA did. Our P value
equals 0.005. The p value is lowered down to 0.05. Meaning, that indeed, productivity
differs across the shifts.
6:58
How large is this difference? Well, the third shift has the highest median performance
335. In summary, we found two outliers in our residuals. Hence, we need to perform a
Kruskal-Wallis analysis as the underlying assumptions of ANOVA are not satisfied. The
Kruskal-Wallis analysis gave us small p value which means that, we found statistical
evidence that there is a significant difference between the productivity of the three shifts.
7:30
The third shift had the highest median productivity and was therefore, the most productive
shift. A practitioner should now investigate why the third shift was performing better, and
try to use its best practices in the first two shifts as well.
M5-V8 Exercise - Department

0:04
Let's do an exercise,in this video you will have to practice testing whether the categorical
X- variable has a significant effect on the numerical Y- variable. The Y-variable on the
exercise will be a through put time of a client request and that it's measured in days.
0:22
In a least of sigma project, this will be your CTQ. The work is divided among three
departments and let's call these departments A, B and C.
0:34
You want to know if all departments are equally fast or if one department has a longer
throughput time than the others.
0:42
Now pause the video. Use the data file named departments.xls and good luck.
0:50
Are you ready?
0:52
Yes? Okay. Then let's discuss the solution to this exercise.
0:58
First you check what variables you're dealing with.
1:02
In this example we have a numerical Y variable and a categorical X variable.
1:10
Our tree diagram points us towards ANOVA and these are the 3 steps of an ANOVA
analysis and the first is to organize our data.
1:21
Let's check whether our data is in the right format. Let's look at what we have. We have
Department in one column which is our x variable, and Throughput times in the other
column which is our y variable. So this is how it should be and we can immediately go to
our second step
1:40
However, before doing this, I always like to have a little look at the data. So let's make
graph just to know what it looks like. Go to Graph Individual Value Plot. Which is the plot
that you have to do with a numeric y and a categorical x. We have one y variable. With
various groups in the x.
2:05
We graph our throughput time with a categorical variable department.
2:11
Okay, and this is what the data looks like. What do we see? We see the three departments
and that the throughput times are very variable. They go from zero To up to 160 days,
and especially Department C has a large variation.
2:30
Let's see what the means per department are and whether they are significantly different.
2:36
So, we are ready to go to our second step, and that is to perform the ANOVA analysis
itself.
2:45
We can find the ANOVA analysis under stat.
2:51
And then you go to ANOVA and one way.
2:55
What is your response? That's, of course, throughput time. And what's the factor? Well,
that's the influence factor, the x variable. That's department.
3:07
You know that under options, you have to unclick Assume equal variances, okay. And
under graph, just to be a bit quicker, we already ask for the four in one which is what we
need for step three. And let's un-click the interval plot because I just don't really like it.
Okay, click it.
3:30
Okay. Let's have a look, first, at our session window which shows us the results of our
ANOVA analysis.
3:44
What does it give us? Lets first look at the means, the mean of a is 16.9, the mean triple
time of department b is a lot shorter it's 11 days and department c has the largest mean
and that's 20 days.
4:03
Okay, this difference seems to be quite large, right. There's 20 days compared to 10 or
16. But is it statistically significant? Well it is because the p-value, which you can find over
here, is 0.000.
4:20
That means, that there is statistical evidence at the departments either have different
working ways or something they do difference resulting in different triple times.
4:33
However, we still need to check the residuals before we know if this is the right conclusion
that we can draw, and that is the third step of ANOVA.
4:45
For this we look to the four and one plot.
4:51
Here it is.
4:53
The Normal Probability Plot, which is here, we see that the Residual are not normally
distributed because the blue dots don't follow the red line
5:05
Hence, the first assumption of the ANOVA is not satisfied. The residuals are not normally
distributed,
5:12
which means that our p-value is not very accurate. And therefore we need to verify this.
And we can do that by using a Kruskal-Wallis analysis.
5:22
You can perform this by going to Start.
5:26
Go to Nonparametrics. And find the Kruskal-Wallis analysis.
5:32
What is our response? That's again the Throughput time. And the influence factors
department.
5:39
Okay. Let's see what Kruskal-Wallis analysis tells us.
5:44
It confirms our conclusion of the ANOVA as the P value is still very small 0.000 hense we
can conclude that there is a difference in. Throughput time across the three different
departments,
6:01
now Which department would want as an example? Probably department DB, because
they handle their requests the quickest, with a median time of 9.895. If you will be working
in this department or you will be in charge of all departments. You probably want to see
what different B does compared to C and A. However, think of our graph.
6:36
Remember that it looked like this.
6:41
And that mean average of 20 compared to 10 is not so big compared to the variation
within the departments. So, the department isn't influenced factor on throughput time, but
it's probably not the biggest fish.
7:00
Let's summarize. We performed an ANOVA analysis and during the residual checks we
found that the residuals were not normally distributed. This is shown in the normal
probability plot. Hence, we needed to perform a brusco-wallace analysis. The brusco-
wallace analysis gave a small p value. Which means that we've found statistical evidence
that there is a difference between the three departments. Department B scored lowest on
the throughput time and was therefore the fastest department. This knowledge could be
used to search for the best practicing b, such a departments a and c can learn from it.
TESTE
In the figure we see differences between teams in terms of processing times (PT). ANOVA is used to
analyze the difference between the teams ("Team").
Based on the outputs presented, what is the correct conclusion?

The mean processing times differs significantly between Teams. However next to "Team" other
influence factors are also important as indicated by the R-square.
Although we observe difference between Teams, the data cannot be used as the group sizes are too
small.
Although we observe differences between Teams, the evidence in the data is not significant,
indicated by the low p-value.
The mean processing times differs significantly between Teams. Furthermore, "Team" is a very
important influence factor as indicated by the R-square.
Correto
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
2.
In the figure we see the productivity for each shift (morning. afternoon. night). ANOVA is used to
analyze the difference in productivity between the shifts.

Although we observe differences between shifts, the evidence in the data is not significant. indicated
the low -square.
The mean productivity differs significantly between shifts.
by the small -value.
Isso no deve ser selecionado

See video M5-V2.
The low -squared suggests that we should have performed another test to compare teams.
Correto
1/1 pontos
3.
Study the output. It contains an ANOVA residual analysis. The ANOVA studied whether the
influence factor Shift (morning, afternoon, night) influences the CTQ Productivity. What is the best
conclusion?
One of the residuals is an outlier, and therefore the ANOVA is not valid.
The residuals are clearly bimodal, so the ANOVA is not valid.
Correto
The results of the ANOVA (p-value, R-squared) are reliable.
The influence factor is not categorical ANOVA is not the appropriate technique.
Correto
1/1 pontos
4.
CTQ: Number of remarks per report
Influence factor: the office handling the report (North. East. West)
We have performed a Kruskal-Wallis test to see if the number of remarks differs across offices.
What is not a reason for doing this test?
We found that the ANOVA residuals contain outliers.
We want to know whether the median is equal across groups.
We found that the ANOVA residuals are not normally distributed.
We want to know whether a numerical influence factor influences a numerical CTQ.
Correto
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
5.
We have performed a 2-sample t-test on the amount of e-mails somebody receives on weekdays
and weekend-days. Refer to the output.
What statement is true?
The standard deviations differ significantly.

See video M5-V5.
There is no evidence for the difference in means being more than 0 (zero).
The means differ significantly.
An ANOVA test should have been performed.
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
6.
CTQ: productivity.
Influence factor: shift (morning. afternoon. night).
You performed an equal variances test on the data.
Consider the output. Next you wish to study the difference in location between the shifts.
What is the best next step to do this?
Perform an ANOVA assuming equal variances.

See video M5-V6.
Perform a two-sample t-test.

Perform another test for equal variances assuming equal variance.
Perform an ANOVA not assuming equal variances.
TESTE 2
1.


See video M5-V2.
small.
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
2.

the low -square.

See video M5-V2.
Correto
1/1 pontos
3.
conclusion?
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
4.
Correto
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
5.

See video M5-V5.
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
6.
CTQ: productivity.

See video M5-V6.
TESTE 3
1.

small.
Correto
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
2.

the low -square.

See video M5-V2.
Correto
1/1 pontos
3.
conclusion?
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
4.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
5.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
6.
CTQ: productivity.

Correto
Teste final 1
1.
It appears that the size of the batch affects the scrap percentage.
Which variable is likely to be the CTQ and which variable the influence factor?
Both batch size and scrap percentage are influence factors.
Batch size is the CTQ and scrap percentage the influence factor.
Both batch size and scrap percentage are CTQs.
Batch size is the influence factor and scrap percentage the CTQ.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
2.
You want to know whether the Throughput Time is influenced by the day of the week that the
request is submitted.
Which test of the following four options is appropriate for this purpose?
ANOVA.
Correto
Regression.
Logistic regression.
Chi-square.
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
3.
You obtain a p-value equal to 0.01.
Using a significance level of 0.05, what is the correct conclusion?
Do not reject the null hypothesis.

See video M4-V2.
Reject the alternative hypothesis.
Reject the null hypothesis.
Do not reject the alternative hypothesis.
Correto
1/1 pontos
4.
This scatterplot implies that cheese consumption per capita (Cheese consumption) is related with
the number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets (Bedsheet tangling).
What is a plausible explanation for this correlation?
Due to a causal relationship between these variables, this pattern appears.
Many people who die from tangling's have first eaten a lot of cheese.
Over time both variables have moved in the same direction.
Correto
Eating cheese is dangerous.
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
5.
In the figure we see the productivity for each shift (morning, afternoon, night). ANOVA is used to
The low -squared suggests that we should have performed another test to compare shifts.

See video M5-V2.
Although we observe small differences between shifts, the evidence in the data is not significant,
indicated by the -square that is larger than 5%.
indicated by the -value that is larger than 0.05.
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
6.
In the figure we see the productivity for each machine (1 through 5). ANOVA is used to analyze the
effect of machines on the productivity
The mean productivity differs significantly between machines. However, besides the machine, other
Although we observe differences between machines, the evidence in the data is not significant,
indicated by the small -value.
The mean productivity differs significantly between machines. Furthermore, machine is a very
important influence factor as indicated by the high R-square.
indicated the low -square.

See video M5-V2.
Correto
1/1 pontos
7.
The output is a residual analysis corresponding to an ANOVA, which studies the effect of shift
(morning, afternoon, night) on the CTQ: Productivity. What is a valid conclusion based on the shown
output?
The influence factor is not categorical, therefore ANOVA is not the appropriate test.
The residuals are clearly nonnormal, so the ANOVA is valid.
The residuals show an outlier, therefore the results of the ANOVA (p-value, R-squared) are not
reliable.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
8.
Influence factor: the office handling the report (North, East, West)
What can we conclude?
The number of remarks has a significant effect on office.
There is insufficient evidence that the medians of the groups are different.
There is no significant relationship between Office and Remarks.

There are differences in the number of remarks between the offices.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
9.
We have performed a 2-sample t-test on the amount of e-mails somebody receives on week-days
and weekend-days.
Given the output, which statement is true?
Correto
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
10.
CTQ: Productivity.
Influence factor: Shift (morning, afternoon, night).
You performed an equal variances test on the data from which the output is given.
In the next step you want to study the difference in average productivity between the three shifts. To
this end, which analysis should follow?

See video M5-V6.
Perform another test for equal variances not assuming equal variance.
Teste final 2
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
2.
ANOVA.
Correto
Regression.
Chi-square.
Correto
1/1 pontos
3.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
4.
Correto
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
5.

See video M5-V2.
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
6.

See video M5-V2.
Correto
1/1 pontos
7.
output?
reliable.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
8.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
9.
and weekend-days.

Correto
Incorreto
0/1 pontos
10.
CTQ: Productivity.

See video M5-V6.
Teste final 3
1.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
2.
ANOVA.
Correto
Regression.
Chi-square.
Correto
1/1 pontos
3.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
4.
Correto

Correto
1/1 pontos
5.
Correto

Correto
1/1 pontos
6.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
7.
output?
reliable.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
8.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
9.
and weekend-days.
Correto
Correto
1/1 pontos
10.
CTQ: Productivity.

Correto

Week 4 - Anova

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Week 4 - Anova

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M5-V1 Introduction to ANOVA

M5-V5 Two sample t-test

M5-V6 Test for equality of variances

M5-V8 Exercise - Department

Based on the outputs presented, what is the correct conclusion?

Based on the outputs presented, what is the correct conclusion?

The mean productivity differs significantly between shifts.

Isso no deve ser selecionado

The residuals are clearly bimodal, so the ANOVA is not valid.

The results of the ANOVA (p-value, R-squared) are reliable.

What is not a reason for doing this test?

We found that the ANOVA residuals contain outliers.

We want to know whether the median is equal across groups.

We found that the ANOVA residuals are not normally distributed.

We want to know whether a numerical influence factor influences a numerical CTQ.

What statement is true?

The standard deviations differ significantly.

Isso no deve ser selecionado

The means differ significantly.

An ANOVA test should have been performed.

Influence factor: shift (morning. afternoon. night).

You performed an equal variances test on the data.

What is the best next step to do this?

Perform an ANOVA assuming equal variances.

Isso no deve ser selecionado

Perform a two-sample t-test.

Perform an ANOVA not assuming equal variances.

Based on the outputs presented, what is the correct conclusion?

Isso no deve ser selecionado

Based on the outputs presented, what is the correct conclusion?

Isso no deve ser selecionado

The mean productivity differs significantly between shifts.

The residuals are clearly bimodal, so the ANOVA is not valid.

The results of the ANOVA (p-value, R-squared) are reliable.

What is not a reason for doing this test?

We want to know whether the median is equal across groups.

We found that the ANOVA residuals contain outliers.

We found that the ANOVA residuals are not normally distributed.

We want to know whether a numerical influence factor influences a numerical CTQ.

What statement is true?

An ANOVA test should have been performed.

Isso no deve ser selecionado

The means differ significantly.

The standard deviations differ significantly.

Influence factor: shift (morning. afternoon. night).

You performed an equal variances test on the data.

What is the best next step to do this?

Perform a two-sample t-test.

Perform another test for equal variances assuming equal variance.

Isso no deve ser selecionado

Perform an ANOVA not assuming equal variances.

Based on the outputs presented, what is the correct conclusion?

Based on the outputs presented, what is the correct conclusion?

The mean productivity differs significantly between shifts.

Isso no deve ser selecionado

The results of the ANOVA (p-value, R-squared) are reliable.

What is not a reason for doing this test?

We want to know whether the median is equal across groups.

We found that the ANOVA residuals are not normally distributed.

We want to know whether a numerical influence factor influences a numerical CTQ.

We found that the ANOVA residuals contain outliers.

What statement is true?

The means differ significantly.

An ANOVA test should have been performed.