editorial

Choices to be made
Local and regional authorities are making climate-conscious choices, whilst climate change impacts will
soon mean individuals need to make choices to survive.

The breaking off of a large piece (over The situation in California is one
5,800km2) of the Larson-C Ice Shelf has example but, as has been reported
dominated the news headlines of late a in the literature, extremes of natural
widening crack spread closer to the edge climate cycles are likely to increase, with
of the shelf, finally reaching the edge and ElNio having potentially far-reaching
freeing the iceberg on 12July2017. The consequences due to its influence across
dramatic and trackable event played out the globe. Whilst the predictions are no
over weeks. It came in the aftermath of longer suggesting there will be an ElNio
President Trumps announcement of the event later this year, the warmer-than-
US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement average sea-surface temperatures in the
and in the lead up to a G20climate west IndianOcean and the cooler-than-
discussion meeting. average temperatures in the east suggest
The G20 meeting, held in Hamburg, a shift to a positive IndianOcean dipole
Germany, concluded with a statement in event. Positive IndianOcean dipole is
JOERG BOETHLING / ALAMY STOCK PHOTO

which 19of the 20nations affirmed their associated with extreme droughts in
commitment to the ParisAgreement, the eastern IndianOcean nations and
citing that the agreement was irreversible. maritime continent, whilst if there is, as
The US stands apart from this group, predicted, a positive IndianOcean dipole
and considering the situation more this year, the drought-ravaged regions of
broadly with Nicaragua and Syria, the Sudan and tropical eastern Africa could
only other nations not committing to the be hit by extreme rainfall, potentially
ParisAgreement. leading to flooding and landslides
Whether there will be a softening of (Caietal. Nature 510, 254258; 2014).
the US stance is yet to be seen but it is This is a situation mirroring hydrological
heartening to see commitments from extremes seen in California, but in
states and cities within the US stepping developing nations with less capacity to
up to mitigate emissions while the federal colleagues(page563). The Paris cope with suchevents.
government steps back. As MarkWatts, Agreement aims to limit warming to Another example is flooding and
executive director of C40, writes in a 1.5C, but the pre-industrial temperature inundation from sea-level rise and storm
Commentary (page537) Mayors of has not been defined and this Letter surge. A recent study looks at the lower
the worlds cities understand that there discusses the implications of different 48states of the USA and which coastal
is no alternative to urgent, bold and choices for likelihood and timing of communities are suffering chronic
transformative action against climate exceedance of temperature targets, as well flooding and inundation (Aton,A.
change. By the end of 2020, every C40city as allowable carbonemissions. ScientificAmerican http://go.nature.
will have a plan in place to ensure they Action is needed: states and cities com/2u11YVi; 12 July 2017). The results
can deliver on their obligations to the will have to, and are already starting show that over 90communities already
Paris Agreement. In a related Feature to, deal with the consequences of a face chronic inundation, with the number
(page543), EricaGies investigates the changing climate. California and China projected to rapidly increase, dependent
role of businesses, as a number of large are discussing climate cooperation, with on emissions in the coming years. These
corporations are making commitments in California all too aware of the challenges communities will require fortification
line with the Paris Agreement, supporting it will face having already experienced and adaptation to remain, or they will be
the work of cities and states. a number of years of extreme drought. forced torelocate.
To track progress and ensure The intensification of the hydrological The choice to abandon is not an easy
countries and other committed parties cycle is discussed by SimonWang and one to make and an Article in this issue,
are meeting their ambitions we need colleagues in a recent Commentary using and featured on the cover (page581),
reliable data on emissions, which recent events in California as an example investigates the choices being made by
requires research funding and observing (Nat.Clim.Change 7,456458; 2017). residents on four low-lying islands of the
platforms. Mitigation commitments This change from extreme drought in Philippines. These residents have chosen
will hopefully also translate into 20122016 to extreme flooding over to remain and adapt despite a relocation
funding to support these efforts. the 20162017 Californian winter is plan being developed by the authorities.
Another point to be considered is an example of anomalous circulation This is a choice that will hopefully be
quantifying the baseline temperature patterns that can persist and then flip, available to, but not needed by, others as
from which warming will be measured, with such extremes being emphasized the impacts of climate change continue
as discussed by AndrewSchurerand under climatechange. tospread.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 7 | AUGUST 2017 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 535

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