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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview
1.1.1 This Appendix describes the SEStran Regional Model (SRM) outputs for the five defined
scenario option tests. The definition of these scenario options and any associated
modelling assumptions is described in the MLDP Options for Appraisal Note (SYSTRA,
September 2010).
1.1.2 Each scenario option is compared with the MLDP Reference Case and the SEStran
Regional Model Analysis Report (SYSTRA, September 2010) provides a summary of the
Midlothian LDP model analysis, which has been undertaken using the SRM. This
document also includes a summary of the SRM, and the definition of the assumed MLDP
land-use scenario, which is common in all the scenario option tests.
1.2.2 The SRM is representative of average weekday travel movements within which the
following time periods are modelled:
1.2.3 Individual factors are applied by mode and time period to create an average peak hour.
For the purposes of appraising the MLDP scenario options, modelled outputs from AM
and PM peak hours have been analysed where the transport impacts are greatest.
Interpeak hour model outputs are available.
1.2.4 The road assignment model includes five assigned vehicle types and journey purposes as
follows:
Car In-Work;
Car Non-Work Commuter;
Car Non-Work Other;
LGV; and
HGV.
PT In-Work;
Car Non-Work Commuter; and
Car Non-Work Other.
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
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14
12
13
10
8 9
15
7
5
6
2
4
11 11
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This scenario results in a very slight reduction in vehicle distance on the strategic
road network.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
the loading of site Hs1 strategic traffic via the A720/A68 junction does not present
any issues at this or adjacent junctions and has a relatively minor impact on the
strategic road network performance.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Local Roads in
- 48.3 47.4 -0.9 -1.9%
Midlothian
Local Roads in
- 47.3 47.3 0 0%
Midlothian
this scenario shows little impact on the strategic road network in either the AM or
PM peak hours with some minor increases and decreases in average vehicle
speeds.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
AM Modal Share
60%
50%
40%
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30% Scenario 2
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 2
10%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0%
A11
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
PM Modal Share
60%
50%
40%
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30% Scenario 2
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 2
10%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0%
there is a very small reduction in the modelled number of users of the Straiton
Park and Ride site. This is probably due to improvements to junctions along the
A701 making private car trips more attractive.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
CORRIDOR REFERENCE
SCENARIO CHANGE
CASE
the model indicates a minor increase in vehicle distance on the A701 corridor
reflecting an increase in assigned traffic along this route with the junction
improvements and an associated reduction in congestion;
a moderate reduction in vehicle distance on the A702 corridor where traffic re-
routes onto the A701 as well as the A703 because of changes at the Damhead
Road junction; and
elsewhere the changes in vehicle distance are marginal.
CORRIDOR REFERENCE
SCENARIO CHANGE
CASE
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
in general, the model indicates that broadly the mitigation measures tested have
improved the operation of the modified junctions, with reductions in delays and
volume to capacity ratios;
the exceptions to this are:
A702/ A703/ Damhead junction (not shown on the figures above), where
the suggested conversion to a combined signalised junction has not
relieved overall congestion levels indicating that further mitigation would
be required at this location, possibly requiring more significant engineering
works; and
Lothian Street/ High Street junction in Bonnyrigg, where there have been
changes in modelled traffic flows with the introduction of capacity relief
measures, in particular an increase in traffic on High Street in both time
periods, that have offset any potential congestion relief at this junction and
where further mitigation analysis would be required. However, it should be
noted that the strategic nature of the SRM may intensify these impacts
where traffic loading is more concentrated than it would be in reality.
more widely the model indicates that the improved operation of these junctions
has a knock-on effect on other junctions (that were not improved); in particular
the A701/ A720 Straiton junction and junctions on the A701 south of the A703
where released traffic has some negative impacts on network performance,
however, these are generally operating within capacity.
(3) A701 From A768 Junction to A720 Flyover 170 151 -19 -11%
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
(3) A701 From A720 Flyover to A768 Junction 272 226 -46 -17%
the model shows a notable reduction in journey times on all the defined routes,
which reflects the positive impact of the mitigation measures on network
performance;
this is with the exception of route 2 where, as noted above, there is a predicted
increase in congestion at some junctions (A701/B7006, A701/A703) as a result of
increased traffic associated with the A701 junction improvements.
Local Roads in
- 48.3
Midlothian 47.6 -0.67 -1%
A17
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Local Roads in
- 47.3
Midlothian 47.1 -0.22 0%
the model shows a significant reduction in speeds on the A702 in the AM peak.
This reflects the network performance outputs reported above where the
suggested conversion of A702/ A703/ Damhead junction to a combined signalised
junction has not relieved overall congestion levels and increased delays on the
A702 northbound as indicated by the average modelled speeds. This indicates
that further mitigation would be required at this location possibly requiring more
significant engineering works;
also reflecting the individual junction performance reported above, the modelled
change in average vehicle speeds elsewhere are more marginal showing some
minor positive and negative impacts on the strategic road network with the
junction changes.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 12. Scenario 2 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 61 61 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 49 -1 -2%
4 Penicuik 59 55 -4 -7%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 56 -1 -2%
7 Mayfield 57 58 1 2%
8 Loanhead 43 43 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 50 1 2%
Table 13. Scenario 2 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 71 70 -1 -1%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 68 -2 -3%
4 Penicuik 75 74 -1 -1%
5 Rosewell 60 60 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 69 69 0 0%
7 Mayfield 71 71 0 0%
8 Loanhead 59 58 -1 -2%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 58 1 2%
10 Dalkeith 48 52 4 8%
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
3.10.2 Table 14 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 2 compared
against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian
area only.
Table 14. Scenario 2 Carbon Emissions
Local Roads in
- 11,950 11,850 -100 1%
Midlothian
the model broadly shows a minor reduction in vehicle emissions on the strategic
road network, which is associated with the relief in traffic congestion arising from
the junction mitigation measures. Only the A701 has an increase in predicted
emissions, which is associated with the increase in modelled traffic along this
corridor, and is minor in scale.
3.11.1 Table 15 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only)
for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to
the modelled Midlothian area only.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
10 Dalkeith 4 4 0 0%
the model broadly shows a negligible change in the modelled annual accident
statistics with only Loanhead showing an increase in predicted accident figures,
which is associated with the increase in modelled traffic along this corridor, and is
minor in scale.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
AM Modal Share
60%
50%
40%
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30% Scenario 3
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 3
10%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0%
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
PM Modal Share
60%
50%
40%
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30% Scenario 3
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 3
10%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0%
the model shows the 5% point shift to PT travel for LDP development sites has a
small impact on the overall mode share in the strategic model.
the model shows a slight reduction in vehicle kilometres on the key corridors,
which correlates with the overall change in mode share
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
4 A7 5,860 5,950 90 2%
The model shows a slight increase in passenger distance, which correlates with
the change in overall mode share.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
in general, the model shows little overall impact on the performance of the
strategic road network, which is not unexpected given the slight change in overall
assigned traffic volumes;
the model shows small reductions in delays and volume to capacity ratios at
certain junctions which reflect the slight reduction in trips from adjacent LDP
sites, but in some locations these are offset by traffic reassignment.
(3) A701 From A768 Junction to A720 Flyover 170 164 -6 -4%
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
(3) A701 From A720 Flyover to A768 Junction 272 270 -2 -1%
the model shows a marginal change in journey times across along the strategic
road corridors within Midlothian.
4 A7 62.4 62.4 0 0%
Local Roads in
- 48.3
Midlothian 48.3 0 0%
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
4 A7 58.1 58.1 0 0%
Local Roads in
- 47.3
Midlothian 47.3 0 0%
the model shows a very slight increase in vehicle speeds which is reflective of the
slight reduction in vehicle kilometres.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 22. Scenario 3 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 61 61 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 49 -1 -2%
4 Penicuik 59 59 0 0%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 57 0 0%
7 Mayfield 57 57 0 0%
8 Loanhead 43 43 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 50 1 2%
Table 23. Scenario 3 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 71 71 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 69 -1 -1%
4 Penicuik 75 74 -1 -1%
5 Rosewell 60 60 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 69 69 0 0%
7 Mayfield 71 72 1 1%
8 Loanhead 59 59 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 57 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 48 47 -1 -2%
the model shows a negligible change in average modelled PT journey times, which
reflects the marginal change in road network speeds.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
4.9.2 Table 24 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 3 compared
against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian
area only.
Table 24. Scenario 3 Carbon Emissions
4 A7 2,020 2,020 0 0%
Local Roads in
- 11,950
Midlothian 11,920 -30 0%
the model shows little change in carbon emissions on the modelled road network.
4.10.2 Table 25 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only)
for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to
the modelled Midlothian area only.
A30
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
10 Dalkeith 4 4 0 0%
the model broadly shows no change in the modelled annual accident statistics.
A31
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
AM Modal Share
60%
50%
40%
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30% Scenario 4
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 4
10%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0%
A32
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
PM Modal Share
60%
50%
40%
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30% Scenario 4
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 4
10%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0%
the model shows a small reduction in modelled usage of the Straiton Park and
Ride site, which is most likely due to the enhanced connectivity to Edinburgh
along the re-aligned A701.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
CORRIDOR REFERENCE
SCENARIO CHANGE
CASE
4 A7 5,860 5,900 40 1%
A34
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
the model shows a small decrease in passenger kilometres on the A701 possibly
related to the reduction in park & ride usage at Straiton.
A35
Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
in the AM peak the model shows a small increase in delays at some junctions on
the current A701, notably the A701/ Damhead/ Pentland Road junction. This
appears to be due to an increase in traffic using Damhead to access Straiton and
Loanhead;
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
in the PM peak the model shows a reduction in delays at all of the junctions on
the current A701 between the A703 junction and the Straiton roundabout, as
would be expected due to traffic using the new A701 alignment instead of the
current A701; and
in the AM peak, the model shows a reduction in the volume to capacity ratio at all
of the junctions along the A701. However, it does show a small increase at the
A703/ Seafield Road junction, which appears to be due to traffic using the A703 to
access the new A701 alignment;
in the PM peak, the model shows a reduction in the volume to capacity ratio at
most of the junctions along the A701 between the A703 junction and the Straiton
roundabout. South of the A703 there is a small increase in the volume to capacity
ratio at most of the junctions, which appears to be due to increased traffic along
this stretch of the A701 due to traffic re-joining the current A701 from the new
A701 alignment. There is also a small increase at the A703/ Seafield Road junction
for the same reason. The model also shows a small increase in volume to capacity
ratio at the Straiton Park/ A701 roundabout;
there is some minor relief in congestion elsewhere in the modelled road network.
(3) A701 From A720 Flyover to A768 Junction 272 175 -97 -36%
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
the model shows a small increase in AM journey time on the A701 to the
roundabout with Penicuik Road. This appears to be due to more traffic using this
section of the A701 (south of the new A701 alignment);
the model shows a reduction in AM journey time on the A701 between the
roundabout at Penicuik Road and the junction with the A768. This appears to be
due to traffic using the new A701 alignment instead of the existing A701;
the model also shows a small increase in AM journey time on the A701 between
the junction with the A768 and the A720 Flyover. This is largely due to modelled
priority at the A720 junction (Straiton Roundabout) being given to flows along the
new A701 alignment. It may be possible to reduce this delay by investigating
alternative lane configurations or junction layouts and this could be considered
further at a more detailed design stage;
the model shows a significant reduction in the southbound PM journey time on
the A701 between the A720 Flyover and the junction with the A768, and a small
reduction between the A768 junction and the roundabout with Penicuik Road.
This is due to traffic using the new A701 alignment instead of the existing road;
and
the model shows a small increase in southbound PM journey times on the A701
south of the roundabout with Penicuik Road. Again, this is due to more traffic
using this section of the A701 (south of the new A701 alignment).
Local Roads in
- 48.3 48.1 -0.2 0%
Midlothian
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Local Roads in
- 47.3 46.6 -0.7 -2%
Midlothian
the model shows a very slight increase in vehicle speeds along the existing A701 in
the AM peak, a very slight decrease in the PM peak, and a marginal change
elsewhere in the strategic road network. The decrease in speeds along the A701
in the PM peak appears to primarily be due to an increase in traffic on the A701
south of A703 (where the new A701 alignment starts).
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 33. Scenario 4 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 61 61 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 50 0 0%
4 Penicuik 59 59 0 0%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 57 0 0%
7 Mayfield 57 58 1 2%
8 Loanhead 43 44 1 2%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 51 2 4%
Table 34. Scenario 4 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 71 71 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 69 -1 -1%
4 Penicuik 75 76 1 1%
5 Rosewell 60 61 1 2%
6 Newtongrange 69 69 0 0%
7 Mayfield 71 72 1 1%
8 Loanhead 59 60 1 2%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 57 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 48 47 -1 -2%
the modelled change in average modelled PT journey times in both time periods is
very slight.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
5.10.2 Table 35 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 4 compared
against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian
area only.
Table 35. Scenario 4 Carbon Emissions
Local Roads in
- 11,950 11,870 -80 -1%
Midlothian
the model shows a major decrease in carbon emissions along the current A701,
but this is offset by increased emissions along the new A701 alignment resulting in
a slight net increase in emissions in the modelled road network.
5.11.2 Table 36 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only)
for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to
the modelled Midlothian area only.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
10 Dalkeith 4 0 0 0%
the model shows a slight change in accident statistics with a small increase in
Sector 3 (Roslin/ Bilston) and a small decrease in Sector 8 (Loanhead). This is due
to more traffic using the new A701 alignment (which is in Sector 3) and less using
the existing A701 (parts of which are in Sector 3 and parts in Sector 8).
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
6.1.2 For the purpose of the LDP appraisal, this scenario option has been defined as follows:
AM Modal Share
60%
50%
40%
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30% Scenario 4
AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 4
10%
AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0%
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
PM Modal Share
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share
30.0% Scenario 5
PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref
Case
20.0%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share
Scenario 5
10.0%
PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref
Case
0.0%
the model shows a small reduction in modelled usage of the Sheriffhall Park and
Ride site, which is most likely due to the enhanced connectivity to Edinburgh with
the relief of congestion on the Edinburgh bypass.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
the model shows a significant increase in vehicle distance along the A720, which
reflects the increase in traffic volumes associated with the capacity relief at
Sherrifhall and Newcraighall junction where latent traffic demand is released in
the modelled network; and
there is little change in vehicle distance along the other corridors.
the model shows very slight changes in passenger distance on the strategic
transport network.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
(3) A701 From A768 Junction to A720 Flyover 170 157 -13 -8%
the model shows a marginal reduction in journey times along the current A701
between the A768 and A720 which is due to some re-routing in the modelled
network associated with the relieved congestion at the bypass junctions; and
the model shows little change on the other routes.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Local Roads in
- 48.3 47.4 -0.9 -1.8%
Midlothian
Local Roads in
- 47.3 47.3 -0.0 0.0%
Midlothian
the model shows a moderate to major increase in average speeds on the A720 in
both the morning and evening peaks;
the model also shows a minor decrease in speeds on local roads in Midlothian in
the morning peak; and
the model shows minimal changes in overall average speeds on the other
corridors, with some very slight increases and decreases.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
included in this analysis and it is not anticipated this would notably change between the
model tests being considered.
Table 44. Scenario 5 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 61 60 -1 -2%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 49 -1 -2%
4 Penicuik 59 59 0 0%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 56 -1 -2%
7 Mayfield 57 57 0 0%
8 Loanhead 43 43 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 49 0 0%
Table 45. Scenario 5 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes)
2 Gorebridge 71 71 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 68 -2 -3%
4 Penicuik 75 73 -2 -3%
5 Rosewell 60 60 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 69 68 -1 -1%
7 Mayfield 71 71 0 0%
8 Loanhead 59 57 -2 -3%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 57 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 48 47 -1 -2%
the model broadly indicates a slight reduction in journey times to/from Edinburgh
city centre associated the relieved congestion at the bypass junctions.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
6.10.2 Table 46 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 5 compared
against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian
area only.
Table 46. Scenario 5 Carbon Emissions
4 A7 2,020 2,020 0 0%
Local Roads in
- 11,950 11,930 -20 -0.2%
Midlothian
the model shows a significant increase in carbon emissions on the A720, which is
directly related to the increase in assigned traffic volumes; and
the model indicates a negligible change elsewhere in in modelled network.
6.11.2 Table 47 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only)
for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to
the modelled Midlothian area only.
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Appendix A SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
A52