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Geologic, topographic and climatic controls in landslide hazard

assessment using GIS modeling: A case study of Souk Ahras
region, NE Algeria
Riheb Hadji a, *, Abd errahmane Boumazbeur b, Yacine Limani a, Mustapha Baghem a,
Abd el Madjid Chouabi c, Abdeslem Demdoum a
a
Farhat Abbas University, Setif, Algeria
b
Chieckh Larbi Tebessi University, Tebessa, Algeria
c
Badji Mokhtar University, Annaba, Algeria

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Landslides are the most common hazard in mountainous regions of northeast Algeria. In this study,
Available online 3 December 2012 landslide hazard zonation of Souk Ahras province was carried out using a Raster based GIS and statistical
processing. Landslide locations were dened from interpretation of aerial photographs and eld surveys.
Rotational, planar and complex landslides were identied. To reveal the controlling factors of landslides,
a temporal distribution of 603 recognized landslides (1981 2011) is compared with the monthly
precipitation variation, indicating a strong correlation between precipitation and landslide occurrence.
The correlation between landslide and lithology, slope angle, and elevation shows the same results.
Tabular data, maps and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial
database in a GIS platform. The factors that inuence landslide occurrence, such as slope angle, slope
exposition and elevation were derived from the DEM; Lithology, soil deposits and faults were digitalized
from the geologic maps; roads, streams and timber were extracted from Landsat image; precipitation
was krigged from pluviometric measurement dataset. Different classes of thematic layers were assigned.
A corresponding rating value as attribute information and an attribute map was generated for each data
layer in the GIS. Landslide hazard areas were assessed and mapped using the landslide occurrence and
permanent factor maps, by applying a probabilistic method with a logistic regression approach. The
results of the analysis were veried using landslides location map, compared with the probability
model. The resulting map can be used to mitigate this hazard, and to plan land use and urbanization.
2012 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Various methods of analysis have been proposed by many

Landslides are considered among the most hazardous natural
phenomena that affect humans and their physical environment.
In addition to property damage, they cause tragic human losses
everywhere in the world (Fell, 1994; Zillman, 1999; Glade et al.,
2005). Einstein (1988) stated that when conditions involve
predisposition to triggering factors, landslides can become
extremely disastrous. The growing anxiety concerning this
hazard has pushed further and deeper investigations in this eld.
* Corresponding author. Department of Earth Sciences, Farhat Abbas University,
Setif, Algeria.
E-mail addresses: hadjirihab@yahoo.fr (R. Hadji), boumezbeura@yahoo.fr
(A.errahmane Boumazbeur), limaniyacine@yahoo.fr (Y. Limani), mustapha-19@
hotmail.fr (M. Baghem), mchouabbi@yahoo.fr (A.elM. Chouabi), slimdem@
yahoo.fr (A. Demdoum).
authors for landslide hazard assessment (Schuster and Fleming,
1986; Brabb and Harrod, 1989; Brabb, 1991; Einstein, 1997; Fell
and Hartford, 1997; Leroi, 1997; Guzzetti, 2000; Schuster and
Highland, 2001), including quantitative techniques with direct
calculation of slope stability (Hansen, 1984; Hansen and Franks,
1991), and qualitative techniques with probabilistic, statistical
or deterministic approaches. The most suitable technique for
landslide hazard analysis is still under debate (Carrara, 1998). The
same discussion is observed concerning the mode of selecting
and combining the independent variables.
Applying the deterministic model to large scale slope stability
zonation research may not be easy. Because of the difculties in
acquisition, control and processing of large spatial datasets, it is
a more suitable method for an individual site (Zhou et al., 2003).
Therefore, this research adopts probabilistic applications for slope
failure modeling using GIS (Mastere et al., 2009). This statistical

1040-6182/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.11.027
 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237
method analyzes the relationship between landslide occurrence
and related factors, and suggests weighing and hazard index and
predicts landslide hazard for the study area. The 603 identied and
classied landslides approved for statistical treatment affect similar
geological and geomorphological units, under the same hydrolog
ical and climatic conditions.
This study concerns the Souk Ahras area, where rapid urban
ization, deforestation, slope conditions, drainage pattern, clayey
and marly formations, tectonic setting and high precipitation are
the main factors, which control landslide hazard distribution. This
area is historically threatened by slope failure phenomena (Hadji
Fig. 1. a: Landslide in Zaarouria Township in January 2008 (36,2271
N; 07,9605
E). b:
Landslide in 1999, involving a total of 2,000,000 m3 of sliding mass (36,2731
N;
07,9997
E). c: Landslide occurred in 2003 outside the urban perimeter (36,2379
N;
07,9597
E).
225
et al., 2010, 2012), but a comprehensive investigation of the
susceptibility to landslide phenomena has not been performed
previously. Fig. 1 shows some landslides in Souk Ahras province.
Over the last three decades, the largest number of recorded
landslides in one year is 119 events (2003). These incidents lead to
blockage or damage to the main highway which connects Souk
Ahras to the neighboring provinces of Tebessa and Annaba.
Highway RN16 was completely impassible for trafc for almost
two weeks. Several dwellings were also seriously affected. The
estimated cost of the damages related to this phenomenon
throughout Souk Ahras province is estimated at V490 million.
This situation has been taken seriously by the local authorities,
as it is a real challenge to development and communication. A
regional landslide hazard analysis and management is becoming
an important task for ofcials and city planners. This study aims
to assess the state of land stability and the resulting potential
hazard throughout the study area in order to undertake the
appropriate mitigation measures. To this end, a landslide hazard
analysis was carried out by using landslide inventory, coupled
with geological, geomorphological environmental and historical
datasets, in a GIS environment. The resulting landslide hazard
zoning map serves as a valuable tool for land management and
planning.
Based on 603 landslides events between 1981 and 2011, the
monthly distributions of recognized landslides are established
and compared with the monthly variation of precipitation. The
damages caused by landslides increase with the mean monthly
precipitation, indicating a strong correlation. The correlation
between landslide occurrence and geological formations, slope
angle, and terrain elevations also shows a good dependence.
Mass movement, which includes landslides, is dened by
Cruden (1991) as, the movement of a mass of rocks, earth or
debris down a slope. Mass movements can be classied accord
ing to their morphology and their geometry as well as their
kinematics and dynamics (Millis, 1981; Gervreau et al., 1992).
Most of these instabilities do not evolve regularly in time, often
showing slow phases of evolution with the appearance of stability.
However, sometimes they move with a perceptible acceleration
(Flageollet et al., 1999). Landslides can remain stable for years, and
may be activated abruptly in the case of seismic loading or in
response to anthropogenic activity such as road or urban
construction. They may be activated under the affect of water
during rainy periods (Campy and Macaire, 2003).
A hazard is dened as, the probability of occurrence of
a potentially undesirable phenomenon in a given area and during
a given time (Guzzetti et al., 1999). A landslide hazard is identi
ed as a set of conditions with a potential for causing an unde
sirable consequence. In prediction of the behavior of future
Fig. 2. Methodological owchart of landslides hazard analysis.
226 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237

Fig. 3. Geographical location of the study area.

landslides, the denition integrates temporal concepts, volume, 2005; Raetzo and Loup, 2009). The necessary data for mapping
repetitiveness, and location. The hazard is characterized by its landslide hazards are gathered into ve groups: landslide inven
intensity, probability, and susceptibility (Hansen, 1984; Carrara tory, topography, geology and sediment, land use, and hydrography
et al., 1991; Hutchinson, 1995; Cardinali et al., 2001; Guzzetti, (Soeters and Van Westen, 1996).

Fig. 4. Synthetic stratigraphic column of the Mellegue Mountains (David, 1956).

 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237 227

2. Material and methods tributaries, Laghdir and Echaref. Souk Ahras region is characterized
by a continental moderate climate. During the three last decades,
GIS technologies can provide an ideal platform for the integra the annual mean precipitation was about 763.27 mm. The effective
tion of the various datasets, their analysis, their combination and evapotranspiration represents 81.68%. Runoff is about 25.2% and
their mapping along a study area. It permits the modeling of several the inltration is about 18.32% of precipitation. Winter and spring
layers of information related to geology, geomorphology, mass are the rainiest seasons. Souk Ahras, Zaarouria and Taoura Town
movements, land use, and environment. They are used according to ships, together, had a population of 186,760 inhabitants in 2011
specic criteria, to dene a Boolean model which leads to the (ONS, 2012).
production of a landslide hazard map. Marine, evaporitic and continental sedimentary formations of
The collection of datasets from previous studies, internal Carboniferous to Holocene age are exposed in the study area (Fig. 4)
reports, landslide survey folders, aerial photographs, satellite (Vila, 1980; Kazi, 1986; Chevenine et al., 1989). The topography is
imagery, DTM, maps, and pluviometric data allow the editing of the asymmetric with a dominant SW slope. The altitude decreases
study project database using GIS software (Arcgis 9.3 by ESRI). The regularly towards the SW. In the Taoura area, the structure is an
adopted method leads to the inclusion and validation of a large anticline trending NEeSW, draining a complex hydrographic
amount of data collected through six years of eldwork. This network (Fig. 5). Two major structural directions characterize the
indirect hazard mapping methodology involves a statistical deter region: NEeSW, marked by Triassic extrusions; and NWeSE to
mination of the variable combinations that have led to landslide WNWeESE, subsequent to post Miocene distensive collapse
occurrence in the past (Chau et al., 2003; Van Westen et al., 2003). (Rouvier, 1990) (Fig. 6). The topographic model shows two prefer
Probability using Logistic regression is very signicant in this ential directions of ow: one toward the east, following the fold
statistical analysis (Mastere, 2011). geometry; the other towards the north, according to the general
The method involves three steps: landslide inventory and topographic slope (Fig. 7).
mapping; preparation of terrain factors maps; and analysis of the
relation between landslide distribution and terrain factors maps
(Guzzetti et al., 2005). Landslide inventory has been conducted 4. Analysis of study area slope failures
from stereoscopic interpretation of aerial photographs, GPS and
inclinometer measurements, eld surveys during 2005e2011, and The Landslide inventory maps provide fundamental informa
the analysis of various reports and internal database of provincial tion on location and size of landslides that is necessary in the
and municipal ofces. The landslide identication map was divided assessment of slope stability, showing all recognized slope failures
into grids with 100 m2 size cells. A total of 603 landslide data were
identied within the grids. The cumulative number of landslides
within each cell was summed, and contour lines were drawn based
on the number of landslides within each cell. The potential runout
is estimated by a stereoscopic comparison of multiage aerial
photographs.
Terrain parameter maps were obtained from various sources of
data. The lithological map and the fault map were digitalized from
an assembly of 5 existing geologic maps (1:50,000). In order to
obtain the slope, exposure and elevation maps, a DTM was used. In
order to obtain the precipitation map, a raster based DEM has been
built by applying kriging interpolation of residual precipitation
values computed using multiple regression statistical analysis in
GIS software. Drainage network, land use and road network maps
were obtained directly from a recent Landsat TM image. Buffer
analysis was applied to classify landslide event distances from
roads, faults and stream networks. According to the availability of
data, many more layers could also be added to such hazard analysis.
On the basis of the statistical analysis of the assumed or expected
importance of factors in landslide processes, each parameter was
ranked and weighted on individual maps.
The spatial analysis of the approved factors for the modeling
(Fig. 2) began with the establishment of a landslide inventory
contour line map and several individual permanent factor maps.
After the combination of all permanent factor maps into one indi
vidual causal factor map, these two maps were combined. A
combined factor analysis was conducted, and the results portrayed
in a 10  10 m resolution map showing the landslide hazard
distribution through the study area (Donati and Turrini, 2002;
Esmali and Ahmadi, 2003; Ayenew and Barbieri, 2005).

3. General setting

The study zone has an area of approximately 465 km2. It is

located in the middle of Souk Ahras province in northern Algeria
(35
590 31.0500 to 36
190 09.3400 N; 7
520 06.5300 to 8
120 03.4200 E;
Fig. 3). It is drained by the main Medjerda wadi and its two Fig. 5. Stream network of the study area.
228 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237

Fig. 6. Geological cross section of the study area (363604100N, 75003800E; and 355900800N, 80303600E).

triggered by a single event, or the cumulative effects of many 2003). A diachronic classication of landslides occurrence by
events over a given period of measurement (Guzzetti et al., 2000). interpreting multiple sets of aerial photographs of different ages
Location using aerial photography allows the examination of large will portray landslides visible over time (Mastere et al., 2010,
surfaces of terrain in a relatively short time (Brardinoni et al., 2011). This allows a probability analysis, and a multi temporal

Fig. 7. Hypsometric map of the study area. Fig. 8. Informative map of landslides phenomena in the study area.
 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237
inventory map can be prepared (Schiefer and Gilbert, 2007). Field
surveying is a paramount operation for the reliability of the
investigation. It can provide insight into how different factors have
contributed to failures. The database contains information on the
typology, distributions, structure, type of movement, depth, date
of occurrence, age, degree of activity and the local controlling
factors of the landslides (Guzzetti et al., 2000). The evidence for
the existence of landslides is generally removed by erosion,
growth of vegetation and human activity, and with time landslide
boundaries become fuzzy, making it difcult to map the landslide
precisely.
Many systems have been proposed for the classication of
landslides (Varnes, 1978; Hutchinson, 1988; EPOCH, 1993; Dikau
et al., 1996). After extensive geomorphological eld surveys
across the study area and according to the classication of Martin
(2006), three main landslide typologies can be recognized and
included in the landslide inventory: rotational landslides; planar
landslides; and complex landslides, characterized by a mass
displacement on one or more recognizable curved or planar
surfaces. They are mainly developed along the slopes bordering
Triassic outcrops as well as marl and clayey formations. The
unstable masses show a spoon shape, with lengths usually longer
than widths. Despite the fact that the dataset for this study is of
acceptable condence, the very small events (volume of less than
5 m3) are omitted from the inventory. Therefore, only the signi
cant landslides (volume of more than 5 m3) are used in establishing
the landslide inventory map (Fig. 8). Among 603 recognized slope
failures, no signicant movements correspond to mudows or rock
Fig. 9. a: Percentage of landslides in relation to slope growing. b: Percentage of landslides in relation to elevation. c: Percentage of landslides in relation to stream network
proximity. d: Percentage of landslides in relation with lithology.
229
falls. There are only some sparsely, isolated, small and supercial
phenomena of this type, which therefore have been neglected by
this study. All the work carried out through the study area by
different consultancy rms such as DTP (2005) and LTPE (2006e
2010) conrms these observations. The collected archive data
conrmed that the area suffered similar landslides in historical and
recent times. The landslide inventory is of great interest in
recording the perceptible indices of the supervening conditions,
environmental parameters, triggering factors and hazardous
elements (Einstein, 1997). After grouping, the number of landslide
clusters at each cell location was counted and stored for later
analysis.
Using GPS measurement, inclinometer and eld recognition, an
analysis of landslide locations with respect to slope determined
that from 5
slope, landslides begin to appear, and their occurrence
becomes more pronounced with increasing slope. Sixty nine
percent of all historical landslide locations are located in slopes
higher than 30
(Fig. 9a). The same eld measurements indicate
that sixty six percent of historical landslides occurred at altitude
greater than 800 m (Fig. 9b). Sixty one percent of all historical
landslide locations are within 100 m of the drainage network
(Fig. 9c).
Fifty two percent of all historical landslide locations are within
150 m of roads and railways. An analysis of landslide locations
compared to the lithology determined that 62% of landslides occur
in the clayey, marly formations and Triassic outcrops (Fig. 9d).
However, there are no strong correlations between landslides and
wooded surfaces, or slope aspect.
230 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237

5. Predictor variables

Lithology is a very important factor that can predispose

terrain to landslide events (Martinez, 2003). The study area is
represented in ve original geologic maps (1:50,000) scanned
and geo referenced according to the WGS84 geodetic system and
UTM, 32 North projections. The lithological map (Fig. 10) was
drawn after the digitalization of each geological formation
exposure, including attributes such as facies name, lithology, age,
symbol, and colour. According to eld and laboratory testing
results as well as the analysis of previous reports (LTPE, Geo
conseil, Taghaste Engineering, DTP), the marls, clays and Triassic
outcrops are the most susceptible to landslides when they are
water saturated, because of their low internal friction and weak
cohesion. Tectonic discontinuities were digitalized in a separate
layer (Fig. 11). Because of their low density in the study area,

Fig. 11. Tectonic faults map of the study area.

tectonic discontinuities have been incorporated into the

modeling based on their proximity to landslides. The likelihood
of a mass wasting event increases as the distance to the fault
decreases.
Based on various eld measurements, three slope classes were
identied: i) gentle slopes with angle lower than 15
, usually
stable; ii) those having a slope between 15
and 30
are less stable,
and start to manifest instabilities; iii) slopes exceeding 30
present
clear indices of instability. The slope map was then constructed
using these three classes [0
, 15
], ]15
, 30
], ]30
, 90
] (Fig. 12).
The slope exposure map (Fig. 13) was also constructed as it
reveals the least sunny slopes, consequently less exposed to evap
oration. Moisture can reduce the strength of the soil and make the
area more susceptible to landslides.
Fig. 10. Digitalized lithological map of the study area. 1 Gray limestone, marls, The study area ranges between 462 m and 1098 m asl. The
dolostone; 2 Marl to marly limestone; 4 Clayey marl, gray marly limestone; 6
Marls and gray clayey marls; 7 Marls with rare marly limestone; 8 11 Sandstone,
likelihood of a landslide increases with relative elevation of
marl, clay; 12 Travertine; 13 White chalky limestone, marly limestone and gray a location (Kelarestaghi, 2003). The three morphometric causal
marls; 14, 17, 45 Quartz sandstone with reddish patinas and gray clay; 15, 28, 33 factors (slope angle, slope exposure and altitude) were extracted
Trissic facies composed of Gypsum, clay; 16 Marls; 18 Alternation of marl and from the DEM (Fig. 14), which was derived from the photogram
sandstone; 19 Greenish clay; 20 Conglomerates, sandstones, clay; 21, 35, 49 Clay
metric processing of aerial images.
and Marl; 22 Continental and red sandstone; 23 Limestone crust; 25 Micaceous
sandstone and claystone; 27 clay; 29 Reef facies; 30 Limestone, calcareous Precipitation has been widely considered as the main temporal
sandstone, marly-limestone; 31 marls, Sandstones, conglomerates; 32, 37 Marly landslide triggering factor for landslide hazard assessments (Van
limestone; 34, 36, 50 Limestone; 40, 46 Marl and marly limestone; 41 Limestone Westen, 2000; Fell et al., 2008). In order to visualize the precipi
crust; 43 Conglomerates, sandstone, clays, marls, limestone; 47 Bituminous tation distribution throughout the study area, a contour map was
limestone, black marly-limestone; 51 Siltstones, clayey marl, sandstone; 52 Clayey
limestone; 53 Limestone with Thin intercalated marl; 54 Clay, marl and glauconitic
produced (Fig. 15) by considering data gathered from 16 stations
sandstone; 3, 5, 24, 26, 38, 39, 42, 44, 48 Soil deposit as: Alluvial deposits, Scree, located within and outside the study area. The amount of precipi
Breccias blocks, sands, silts, gravels. tation for each elementary surface is computed using multiple
 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237
Fig. 12. Slope classes map of the study area.
regression (Charabi et al., 2002; Quenol, 2002; Madelin and
Beltrand, 2005). The kriging of residual elds from the regression
allows the combination of the regression equation and the inter
polated residues in order to obtain a spatial representation of
pluviometric zones (Laborde, 1997). This map deals with that
established for North Algeria (ANRH, 1993; Mouhous, 1997;
Mebarki, 2005).
Landslide activity reaches its maximum during and just after
rainy events. During the winters of 2002e2003 and 2008e2009,
precipitation attained respectively the values of 1226 mm and
1176 mm, and hundreds of landslides of various types and sizes
were triggered. They caused severe damage to roads, dwellings, and
public facilities. Data of landslide frequency and precipitation
events from late autumn to early spring (for a period of thirty years)
show a close relationship between precipitation and landslides
(Fig. 16). An inter annual comparison between the two phenomena
shows a return period of almost ve years (Fig. 17).
Land use and land cover have an important role in slope
stabilization through different mechanisms taking place at the
root system of the vegetation. Additionally, areas with little or no
vegetative land cover and degraded areas are more predisposed
to landslides (Gomes et al., 2005). The wooded surfaces of the
study area are dominated by a low density of cork and pine trees,
mostly in a deteriorated state (Fig. 18). Development of human
activities such as cutting and lling along roads is capable of
altering slope form and groundwater conditions. These conditions
may signicantly increase the degree of landslide hazard. The
231
Fig. 13. Aspect map of the study area.
study area is served by two national highways, one railway, and
many departmental roads (Fig. 19). The intermittent ow regime
of hydrologic network and gullies encompasses erosive and
saturation processes, increasing the pore water pressure that
causes landslide phenomena in areas adjacent to drainage chan
nels. This process is reinforced during periods of high
precipitation.
6. Hazard assessment
In landslide hazard assessment, it is assumed that future land
slides will likely occur under the same conditions that have
produced past ones. Hence the conditions and processes which
cause landslides should be determined and their relative impor
tance to landslide occurrence should be assigned a rate reecting
their contribution (Varnes, 1984). Five categories reecting 12
layers of factors with 31 classes of parameters were mapped for the
study area, with calculation of the spatial distribution of landslides
inventoried in relation to different causative factors. To generate
this correlation between each predictive variables layers and
landslides inventory layer, spatial analysis is used for raster
calculation.
They are two types of relationships between causal factors and
landslides. For attributes such as distance from faults, roads and
hydrographic network, when the correlation between those causal
factor and landslides is negative, the likelihood of a landslide
increases as the value of the causal factor decreases. For attributes
232 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237

Fig. 14. The digital terrain model of the study area. Fig. 15. Inter-annual average precipitation map of the study area.

Fig. 16. The monthly average precipitation and the landslide events percentage in the study area (in 30 years of recording).
 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237 233

Fig. 17. Cumulative landslides event over 30 years of recording.

Fig. 18. Distribution forest map of the study area. Fig. 19. Road network of the study area.
234 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237
such as lithology, sediment, elevation, slope angle, exposure,
precipitation, past events and potential runout, when the correla
tion between those causal factors and landslides is positive, the
likelihood of a landslide increases as the value of the causal factor
increases. There seems a strong correlation between landslide
occurrence and clayey and marly formation or Triassic outcrops,
showing that landslides occurrences are strongly dependent on the
geological formation (Evans et al., 1999) (Fig. 20a). The same
observation is noted about sedimentary deposits.
The study area is dominated by an elevation range between 462
and 1098 m. There is a good correlation between this parameter
and landslide events (Fig. 20b). The relative exposures of slopes are
oriented in every direction, with no correlation between this last
parameter and landslides. The slope classication indicated that
the greatest proportion of landslides (413) was distributed in the
steepest slope class [30
e90
] (Fig. 20c). According to the eld
measurements, the landslide events are dominantly distributed
less than 100 m from drainage networks. Weight within this buffer
Fig. 20. a: Landslides distribution according to the ratio of clayey, marly facies. b:
Landslides distribution according to their elevation (m). c: Landslides distribution
according to their slope angle (degree).
has been linearly assigned from 0 to 100 m distance from the
streams. Measurements showed that the landslide events are
distributed less than 150 m from roads. Weight within this buffer
has been linearly allocated from 0 to 150 m. Areas beyond this
buffer have been regarded as without hazard. The same reasoning
is noted from the tectonic discontinuities. Concerning land use, it is
known that trees help to stabilize the slope, but because of their
poor state, the correlation between landslides and forest cover is
not evident. The number and the intensity of landslides increase to
the north, in agreement with the increase of precipitation. There is
a good spatiotemporal correlation between precipitation and
landslides events. Landslides are triggered preferentially on the
same surface where they occurred in the past, increasing the
predisposition near these locations.
All the data are prepared and transformed to the same digital
format, and their correlation with landslide events is expressed in
weight and hazard index (Chau et al., 2004). Among various
statistical techniques for data processing of geographical informa
tion, the logistic regression approach was chosen to produce
a hazard map. A best t between the presence or absence of
a landslide (dependent variable) and a set of possible causal fac
tors (independent variables) was established on the basis of
a maximum likelihood criterion, yielding an estimation of regres
sion coefcients that are representative of the relationship between
the factors and the phenomena.
On the basis of the relationship between the mapped
phenomena and causal factors, weights (Wi) were proposed for
each layer, so that the more inuential the factor, the higher its
weight. Using the collected landslide data, all layer raster maps
were normalized with respect to landslide occurrence. Values
have been established such that the maximum value possible for
the Hazard Index (Hji) for each layer has been scaled to 1 (Evans
et al., 1999). To yield the subclasses hazard index, the total
number of landslides for each class was normalized to this
maximum value. To generate the landslide hazard map, the stan
dardized causal factors distribution maps were combined by
multiplying, for each layer, its corresponding weight (Wi) by the
hazard index (Hji) for each elementary subclass and then,
summing the results. This summation is dividing by the overall
weight of the layers retained for the computation. This can be
illustrated by the following formula:

P 
12 
f x$ j 1 Wj $Hji x
Hazard P12
j 1 Wj
with f(x) is a lter function related to slope angle; when the slope
angle is lower than 5
, then f(x) 0.
Several models using different combinations of reference
categories for the categorical variables were calibrated and eval
uated. The stability of the model was tested by producing six
logistic regression models using 75% of the sample for calibration
and the remaining 25% for validation. For different possible
combinations of a diagnostic, a Receiver Operating Characteristic
curve test is used for the calibration and validation. Datasets of
these models provide different values area under the curve (AUC),
standard errors (SE) and condence intervals (CI). The comparison
between the six combinations selected the model with the
highest area under the ROC curve analysis (0.957) for editing the
landslide hazard map of study area. The approved model is indi
cated in Table 1. All the independent variables were included in
the full model for the calibration and validation of the logistic
regression model.
 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237 235

Table 1
Weightings and hazard indexes for layers input attributes.

Class Hazard index

Category Layer (j) Weighting (Wj) Class (Ci)
No (i) (Hji)
1 < 600 m 0.04
2 Elevation 0.5 600-800 m 0.48
3 > 800 m 1.00
4 <15 0.10
5 Terrain Slope angle 2.0 15-30 0.36
6 > 30 1.00
7 N, NE, NW 1.00
Slope
8 0.5 E, W, Flat 0.50
exposure
9 S, SE, SW 0.00
6-7-15-28-33-16-19- 1.00
10
21-35-49-27
2- 4- 8- 9- 10- 11- 0.48
11 18- 25- 31-32- 37-
Lithology 1.0
40-46- 52- 53-54
1-12-13-14- 17-45- 0.21
12 Geology 20-22-23-29-30-34-
36- 50-41-43-47-51
Yes : 3- 5- 24- 26- 1.00
13
Soil deposit 1.0 38- 39- 42- 44- 48
14 No 0.00
15 1.0 (buffer Yes 1.00
Discontinuity
16 =100 m) No 0.00
17 Past events 2.0 Number per 100 m2 N/4
18 Landslide Potential Yes 1.00
1.0
19 runout No 0.00
20 > 850 mm 850/850
21 750 mm 750/850
22 650 mm 650/850
Precipitation 1.0
23 550 mm 550/850
Environment
24 450 mm 450/850
25 350 mm 350/850
26 Stream 1,0 (buffer Yes 1.00
27 network =100m) No 0.00
28 Roads 1,0 (buffer Yes 1.00
29 network =150m) No 0.00
Land use
30 Yes 1.00
Forest 0,50
31 No 0.00
Geo processing
T
Multidimensional
O Hazard
analysis
T assessment
A if the slope angle < 5, than (x) = 0
L
Mapping Calibration and Four classes of Hazard
Final result mapping Nil Low Moderate High

With the respect to the logistic regression model, the appli
cation of the computing formula on the entire study area gives
a broad range of hazard levels, which were graded into four
classes of intensity levels. These four classes are an approximation
of the spatial distribution of landslide hazard over the study area
(Fig. 21). The classes dened in this study are high, moderate, low,
and nil, as used in both Switzerland and France (MATE/METL,
1999; Loat and Zimmermann, 2004). However, other hierarchies
where more than four classes can be used (Panizza et al., 2004;
Sorriso Valvo, 2005).
7. Discussions and conclusion
Landslides are the most disturbing natural hazard in the
mountainous lands of northeast Algeria (Demdoum et al., 2011;
Djerbal and Melbouci, 2012). Based on eldwork, landslide data
records and inuential factors analysis, areas susceptive to this
hazard can be identied. To evaluate the intensity and the
distribution of landslides hazard over the study area, this
research used a statistical analysis, based on a probabilistic
model, with particular reference to past events and physical
236 R. Hadji et al. / Quaternary International 302 (2013) 224 237
Fig. 21. Landslide hazard map of the study area.
parameters which are regarded to be inuential in the occurrence
of landslides.
On the basis of 603 landslides from 1981 to 2011, the monthly
distributions of landslides in the study area have been established.
A strong correlation between precipitation and landslide occur
rence was obtained. The comparison between elevations, slope
classes and the landslide events show good correlations, and the
phenomena increase with these two geomorphologic parameters.
The cumulative account of landslides during three decades of
recording estimated a return period about ve years. Landslides of
the study area affect mainly clay and marl formations and Triassic
heterogeneous outcrops, especially if the bedrock is much frac
tured. The more inuential factors are the slope angle, past events
and lithology, and the triggering factor: is the precipitation. Aspect
and forest cover are the least inuential, but nevertheless the
remaining factors have inuence.
The study project is presented in GIS digital format as layers
interpreting slope, aspect and elevation classes, precipitation and
forests distribution, lithology, and soil deposit, potential runout,
faults, streams, and road network. For each layer a weight is
assigned according to its inuence in the process of landsliding.
Layers are divided into subclasses, each of which is assigned
a hazard index, estimated using eld data. A mathematical
equation was applied for the geo processing of this set of infor
mation layers. To remove unrealistic landslide hazard designation
on at land, a lter function was added to the equation.
Using the regression logistic model, four classes of hazard were
identied and mapped: nil (57.41%), low (21.28%), moderate
(16.79%) and high hazard (4.52%). The distribution of landslide
hazard probability shows that the highest hazard is concentrated
through the northern side of the study area, at Souk Ahras city,
surrounded by the Djebel Beni Salah and Djbel Ouled Moumen
mountains. Given the locations of high and moderate hazards,
many areas planned for future extensions are exposed to high
hazards, although no active phenomena were noted in the past. To
validate the developed probability map, the distribution of land
slides in the most affected year for strong events (2003), was used
for comparison. Most of the landslides occurred in areas indicated
as high and moderate areas in landslide hazard maps, showing 79%
agreement between the model results and the landslides used for
the validation.
Landslide hazard maps are very useful to take appropriate
decisions and subsequent measures for landslide prevention and
mitigation. They allow action before emergency events happen, to
plan for their occurrence when possible, and to minimize their
potential effects. They are capable in assisting management and
decisions for future infrastructure planning and development.
For an exhaustive study, it is preferable to integrate the landslide
magnitude dataset with other factors or parameters such as
groundwater uctuation and geotechnical characteristics. It is also
possible to assess the vulnerability of the territory and landslide
risk. The database of this GIS contains a large amount of datasets,
and respectable basic themes, which can be used in other studies.
This research can be focused, or improved with other types of
methodological approaches.
Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to the editor and the anonymous
reviewers for their valuable suggestions. We also thank the staff of
the Setif University (Algeria). Special thanks to Mr. Abd Errahmane
Boumazbeur for his scientic help.
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