"High-quality training courses in

risk analysis...which I highly

recommend."
- David Vose, Director
Vose Software

Vair Training LLC

presents:

Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis

October 27–28, 2010 New York

● Activate and exercise practical, critical, risk-based thinking skills

● Develop effective and useful risk models in support and decision
analytics
● Build object-oriented spreadsheet models that operationalize complex
variables in business and enterprise
● Apply distributions, activate simulation, optimize project results,
model correlations and apply forecasting
● Engage in real-time commercial discussions with active risk modeler
and decision analyst

Register Today: +1 866 410 VAIR (8247) or info@vaircompanies.com

Vair Training
Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis

COURSE OBJECTIVES
Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis is a Vair Training Master Class and focuses on risk management
for virtually any industry and its related modeling issues. This course covers the basic principles of
quantitative-risk analysis and the most important risk modeling principles, methods and techniques.
The focus of the workshop is how to conduct accurate and effective quantitative-risk analyses, including
best practices of risk modeling, selecting appropriate distributions, using data and expert opinion, and
avoiding common mistakes. The course covers assessment of uncertainty, simulation, time-series
forecasting, optimization, correlation, eliciting and modeling expert estimates, and communicating risk-
analysis results. The training enables participants to produce realistic, high quality corporate finance
risk-analysis models in a manner that provides decision makers with the clearest and most helpful
input. In addition, the course covers essential probability and statistics theory and various stochastic
processes in order to provide course participants with a solid understanding of quantitative risk-analysis
methods and techniques.

This is an advanced course and is geared to the intermediate-to-advanced delegate.

COURSE OUTLINE
Part 1 - Introduction to Risk Analysis
Part 2 - Introduction to Statistical Descriptors
Part 3 - Introduction to Probability Theory
Part 4 - Introduction to Risk Modeling
Part 5 - Stochastic Processes - the basis of risk analysis
Part 6 - Hypergeometric Process
Part 7 - Practical Problems to Solve
Part 8 - Best Practices in Risk Modeling
Part 9 - Example Risk Analyses
Part 10 - Wrap-up and review of course material

For a detailed course syllabus, click here

PREVIOUS VAIR TRAINING PARTICIPANTS INCLUDE DELEGATES OF:

● ABN AMRO ● Federal Reserve Bank of New York ● Petrobras
● ANZ ● Fortis ● Santander
● Asian Development Bank ● General Electric ● Royal Bank of Canada

● Banco do Brasil ● HSBC ● Royal Bank of Scotland

● BNP Paribas ● HSH Nordbank ● Shell Gas & Power

● Citi ● JP Morgan Chase ● Societe Generale

● Deloitte & Touche ● Macquarie ● US Export-Import Bank

● Dexia ● NordLB ● WestLB

● Export Development Canada ● OPIC ● World Bank/IFC

Vair Training
Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis

COURSE SYLLABUS

Part 1 - Introduction to Risk Analysis

* Background of risk analysis and risk management

* Risk analysis as a team effort
- Going from data to knowledge to a useful decision tool
- Dealing with the limits of current knowledge

Part 2 - Introduction to Statistical Descriptors

* Mean, mode, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, percentiles

Part 3 - Introduction to Probability Theory

* The use of distributions: uncertainty, variability and inter-individual variability

* Probability concepts
* Graphical representations of risk events: Venn diagrams, fault trees and event trees
* A look at some simple probability distributions

Part 4 - Introduction to Risk Modeling

* Monte Carlo simulation, Crystal Ball/@RISK/ModelRisk and Excel

- Brief tutorial on Crystal Ball/@RISK/ModelRisk
* Calculation vs. simulation - the pros and cons of Monte Carlo
* Typical risk analysis results, their presentation and interpretation
* Practical problems to solve
* The most common probability distributions

Part 5 - Stochastic Processes - the basis of risk analysis

* Binomial Process
- Binomial, beta, negative binomial and geometric distributions
- Imperfect tests, machine failures, risk events, etc.;
* Poisson Process
- Poisson, gamma, and exponential distributions
- Modeling insurance claims, accidents, random outbreaks, etc.
Vair Training
Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis

Part 6 - Hypergeometric Process

* Hypergeometric and inverse Hypergeometric distributions

* Survey results, prevalence estimate with imperfect diagnostic test, gambling, etc.

Part 7 - Practical Problems to Solve

Part 8 - Best Practices in Risk Modeling,

Common mistakes and how to prevent them,
Introduction to analyzing and using data for risk analysis

* Statistical techniques
* Why we need uncertainty distributions not confidence intervals in risk analysis
* Creating uncertainty distributions with standard Classical Statistical tests
t-tests, z-tests, Chi-squared tests
* Examples of estimation of population mean and standard deviation
* The Bootstrap to include uncertainty
*The use of Bayesian Statistics in risk analysis

Part 9 - Example Risk Analyses (a range of examples will also be covered during the course)

Part 10 - Wrap-up and review of course material

Vair Training
Risk Modeling and Decision Analysis

About the Instructor

Dr. William J. McKibbin is a risk modeler and decision analyst specializing
in forecasting, simulation, optimization, stochastics, statistics,
programming, training and presentation support. Dr. McKibbin has been
in professional practice serving companies in various capacities as
consultant, advisor and trainer since 1998. He is an expert user of Excel
(Microsoft), ModelRisk (Vose) and Visual Basic for Applications
(Microsoft).

Dr. McKibbin holds degrees from the following institutions: Doctor of

Philosophy, School of Business & Technology, Capella University,
Minneapolis, MN; Master of Arts, Graduate School of Arts Sciences,
Georgetown University, Washington, DC; Bachelor of Arts, College of
Liberal Arts, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA; Associate in Arts, Junior
College, Valley Forge Military Academy, Wayne, PA.

He currently serves as an Adjunct Professor at The Nathan M. Bisk

College of Business, Florida Institute of Technology.

About The Vair Companies, Inc.

The Vair Companies offers financial advisory, training and seminar
services to organizations and individuals working in the international
infrastructure and project development industry. We are active advisors
to sponsors, lenders, participants and governments in the infrastructure
sector, having advised on the closing of over USD 2.5 billion in assets
globally.

During training, we use the same real-world methods and industry

techniques we employ on behalf of our advisory clients. Our courses are
taught by active financial advisors and project developers who impart the
same techniques used to drive real projects, valuations and deals. Vair is
not a PowerPoint-based training firm. Instead, we apply a “hands-on”,
“learn-by-doing” approach to our teaching.

For more information, please visit www.vaircompanies.com

Vair Training
Registration Form: New York City
Fax completed registration form to +1 678 802 3222 or register online at www.vaircompanies.com
For more information, please call +1 866 410 VAIR (8247) or email info@vaircompanies.com

Registration Form
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Please register the following number of delegates for:

 Risk Modeling & Decision Analysis October 27-28 , 2010 New York No. ___ delegate(s) at US$2,500/ea

Early-Bird Special: 10% discount for registrations received at least 8 weeks prior to course start-date
Group Rates: 20% discount for the third and subsequent delegates from the same organization
Student Rates: 50% off standard rates (additional Early-Bird Special and Group Rates do not apply)

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Registration Information:

Fee: Registration fees include morning coffee/tea, networking lunches and afternoon refreshments. Delegate lodging not
included.
Billing and Confirmation: Invoices and/or Payment Confirmations are forwarded within three (3) business days of receipt of
registrations.
Venue: Vair Training courses are held at world-class international venues. Locations, times and meeting places are confirmed
two (2) weeks prior to course commencement.
Materials: Course materials are provided electronically on Day 1 of on-site registration. Delegates are required to bring a
personal laptop computer equipped with Microsoft Excel software.
Hours: Courses run 9:00 AM–4:30 PM daily
Cancellation Policy: All cancellations must be sent in writing to fax # +1 678 802 3222 or info@vaircompanies.com. For
cancellations received up to 21 days before the event date, a 15% administrative fee will be charged to the delegate. If
payment has already been received, a full refund less the 15% administrative fee will be given. For cancellations received
less than 21 days before the event, delegates will not be eligible for a refund and/or will be responsible for the full amount of
his/her event registration. A comparable future course may be attended in lieu of a refund depending upon availability and
location. Delegate replacements are also welcome.
Schedule Changes: Vair Training may find it necessary to reschedule or cancel sessions and will give registrants appropriate
advance notice of such changes. On such occasions, full refunds will be given. Vair Training will not be responsible for
penalties incurred as a result of discounted airfare purchases. For more information regarding Vair Training administrative
policies, please contact our offices at +1 770 853 0362.